When Will It All Go Wrong For The Tories/ Johnson?

[LSWR Cavalier]

Unfortunately, it's perfectly fine Perhaps more interestingly, he changes his tone completely in the media here. For instance, a couple of years ago, he was promoting the idea that Polish people are "ideal" immigrants to the UK.

He's also connected to a rather nasty Polish-born clown who has been pushing a very right wing agenda among Poles in the UK, who is frqeuently posioning them with the idea that British people loathe them and don't appreciate them.

The only good thing is that Kawczyński is too busy being corrupt to bother much with Poland.

My vision: he sees the light, succeeds bojo as pm and leads the UK back into the EU!

I have known so many kindly Polish people, at school, at work. Thought I read that they were the most numerous guest-worker group in the UK and being Catholic they have many children...

Trying to get back on topic: may one hope that bojo stays a while yet, leading the tories further into the mire?

 

[Purple Orange]

That doesn't sound right wing. That sounds like making Poles play the victim. Don't know the reason for that, of course, but that's how it comes across.

I think they are starting to remember what helped them gain so many seats in 2010, which is being the third option, and distancing themselves from both Labour and Conservatives. Of course it might all go down hill again when they end up having to choose which coalition they want to end up in, as both Labour and Conservatives will throw them under the bus at the first opportunity, but, I'd rather take another Lib Dem coalition than either pure Labour or Conservative right now.

I think in an ideal world a Lib Dem coalition with Labour would be the best overall outcome. It’s a chance to put forward a referendum for Proportional Representation, which is the vote we should have had back in the coalition days.

 

[MattRat]

I think in an ideal world a Lib Dem coalition with Labour would be the best overall outcome. It’s a chance to put forward a referendum for Proportional Representation, which is the vote we should have had back in the coalition days.

Labour would never do it. They'd rather lose than back down on their 'principles'. The Conservatives won't be any better of course, just look at 2010, but Lib Dems should know by now to put up a fight, and keep the Conservatives from going too far.

 

[Purple Orange]

Labour would never do it. They'd rather lose than back down on their 'principles'. The Conservatives won't be any better of course, just look at 2010, but Lib Dems should know by now to put up a fight, and keep the Conservatives from going too far.

This isn’t a Labour Party led by the hard left anymore. It’s a party that will happily court the CBI, the Sun etc. If it’s a choice between opposition or government with a minority Lib Dem, they’ll go for that.

 

[MattRat]

This isn’t a Labour Party led by the hard left anymore. It’s a party that will happily court the CBI, the Sun etc. If it’s a choice between opposition or government with a minority Lib Dem, they’ll go for that.

It's Covid that will cause a problem. Labour want to rule with an iron fist, the Lib Dems do not.

 

[Typhoon]

It's Covid that will cause a problem. Labour want to rule with an iron fist, the Lib Dems do not.

That, surely, will depend when the election is and how much immunity we acquire through all these jabs and boosters and through catching the disease.

I have known so many kindly Polish people, at school, at work. Thought I read that they were the most numerous guest-worker group in the UK and being Catholic they have many children...

When I was at school in the fifties, the father of a lad had come over to fly fighters (I think) in WWII, he was far from alone. We owe a lot to the Poles.

 

[Noddy]

I think they are starting to remember what helped them gain so many seats in 2010, which is being the third option, and distancing themselves from both Labour and Conservatives. Of course it might all go down hill again when they end up having to choose which coalition they want to end up in, as both Labour and Conservatives will throw them under the bus at the first opportunity, but, I'd rather take another Lib Dem coalition than either pure Labour or Conservative right now.

Minor point but the LDs actually lost five seats in 2010 despite ‘cleggmania’ and actually being, albeit briefly, first in the polls at one point.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Minor point but the LDs actually lost five seats in 2010 despite ‘cleggmania’ and actually being, albeit briefly, first in the polls at one point.

Their vote share went up in 2010, which is arguably a better measure. The fact that they lost seats is purely down to the randomness in our electoral system.

 

[Busaholic]

Ah, so it's not because we've got the most incompetent Tory government in history, but because they fielded a brown candidate. Okay...

Using your logic, your "deeply conservative" voters in North Shropshire wouldn't have voted for a woman either, would they?

I've seen a photo of Eric Lubbock, the winner of the Orpington by-election, with his Conservative opponent and their racial profile appears to be identical. Both could not be described as other than white and Western in their appearance. From my local connections and interest in politics which started a few years before 1962 I can think of various reasons why Peter Goldman was an unpopular candidate for a political party that was losing voter confidence, even in true-blue heartland, and race played no part that I can remember. In any case, Lubbock would have been the first person to publically call out anyone attempting to play the race card. An element that both Orpington and North Shropshire do share though is that both by-elections could be said to be unnecessary, which usually impacts on the defending party.

 

[MattRat]

Minor point but the LDs actually lost five seats in 2010 despite ‘cleggmania’ and actually being, albeit briefly, first in the polls at one point.

You say Cleggmania like it's a bad thing. I didn't agree with everything he said, but he was intelligent while also never speaking down to people. When Joey Essex went to parliament looking to lean more, Nick Clegg was the one willing to speak to him. I know some people never liked Joey Essex, but you can't look down on Clegg being polite. A lot of politicians could have learned a few things from Clegg.

 

[daodao]

I've seen a photo of Eric Lubbock, the winner of the Orpington by-election, with his Conservative opponent and their racial profile appears to be identical. Both could not be described as other than white and Western in their appearance. From my local connections and interest in politics which started a few years before 1962 I can think of various reasons why Peter Goldman was an unpopular candidate for a political party that was losing voter confidence, even in true-blue heartland, and race played no part that I can remember. In any case, Lubbock would have been the first person to publicly call out anyone attempting to play the race card.

Peter Goldman was not a WASP. His opponent Eric Lubbock was a member of the aristocracy, who just over 1 year after losing his seat as an MP in 1970, returned to Westminster as a hereditary peer (Baron Avebury). One of the most controversial aspects of the Orpington by-election was the alleged antisemitism of both the local electorate and the Liberal campaign.

In the privacy of the polling booth, many within the North Shropshire electorate will have hesitated to vote for a man named Shastri from Brum. The Lie Dems will obviously deny that they encouraged racist views, but emphasised that their candidate was "local". Given the scale of the LD victory, clearly the unpopularity, rank incompetence and sleaze of the current Westminster administration (which became even more evident in the 2 weeks since the Old Bexley and Sidcup by-election) may have been sufficient factors by themselves.

The background of a candidate is even more important at a by-election than a general election, where the electorate focus on the choice of government and prime minister. It is only natural for the electorate to prefer "one of us" and political parties who do not consider this aspect of voting do so at their electoral peril. It certainly hindered the Labour party in 2015.

An element that both Orpington and North Shropshire do share though is that both by-elections could be said to be unnecessary, which usually impacts on the defending party.

I agree, and a contrast with Old Bexley and Sidcup, where the well-respected sitting Tory MP sadly died relatively young of a nasty cancer.

 

[Purple Orange]

It's Covid that will cause a problem. Labour want to rule with an iron fist, the Lib Dems do not.

Nah. We’re talking 2024 here, things will be completely different again.

 

[SuperNova]

Yes I was delighted to see both the Conservatives and in particular the traitorous Labour party get trounced in this by-election.

The Liberal Democrats really should revise their stance on certain issues in my opinion but they do not seem to have been as bad as Labour who have been absolutely desperate to lock us all down and of course they aren't the Conservatives who implemented many of the authoritarian measures demanded by Labour.

Putting public health and the health service first isn't being desperate to lock people down. But rationale seems to be lost when it comes to Covid. And Labour didn't get a kicking, Labour voters actively supported the LD's to get the Tories out as most Tories won't vote Labour. LD's are returning to their pre-coalition position of being the protest vote. And the more the LD's exploit that in the shire's, then the more Labour are very likely to be the biggest party come the next GE - who as we've seen recently are the grown ups in the room.

 

[Busaholic]

Peter Goldman was not a WASP. His opponent Eric Lubbock was a member of the aristocracy, who just over 1 year after losing his seat as an MP in 1970, returned to Westminster as a hereditary peer (Baron Avebury). One of the most controversial aspects of the Orpington by-election was the alleged antisemitism of both the local electorate and the Liberal campaign.

Alleged by whom? I can only find a thesis published this year by someone at Maastricht University called York Membery, and the summary provides no evidence or detail. It was the Liberal campaign HQ in Orpington that got burned down! (by accident, apparently). I've never heard the local populace accused of antisemitism before, although I dare say there may have been a golf club or two in the area that effectively barred Jewish people joining at that time, but they'd have been run by Tories anyway!

 

[bavvo]

In the privacy of the polling booth, many within the North Shropshire electorate will have hesitated to vote for a man named Shastri from Brum. The Lie Dems will obviously deny that they encouraged racist views

Got any evidence that they "encouraged racist views"?

 

[Bald Rick]

That was what happened in St Albans at the 2019 GE. The local Conservative MP not only had a lacklustre few terms in the City

Lacklustre is rather over stating matters! Her most memorable Parliamentary contribution in 14 years as an MP was a speech about dog poo.

Sensational result in N Shropshire; no doubt there will be scores of conservative MPs worried now.

 

[AM9]

Lacklustre is rather over stating matters! Her most memorable Parliamentary contribution in 14 years as an MP was a speech about dog poo.

I wasn't going to get into the detail but yes, the 'stick and flick' speech was her high point , The low point was renting an apartment in St Albans (as you know they don't come cheap here), as a constituency home which her daughter lived in because commuting to London fom St Albans was more convenient than from the family home in Beaconsfield. Despite Main herself being able to easily commute from St Albans to Westminster, she then claimed another £22,000 per year a second home despite having simple commuting options from both St Albans and Beaconsfield.

 

[MattRat]

Putting public health and the health service first isn't being desperate to lock people down. But rationale seems to be lost when it comes to Covid. And Labour didn't get a kicking, Labour voters actively supported the LD's to get the Tories out as most Tories won't vote Labour. LD's are returning to their pre-coalition position of being the protest vote. And the more the LD's exploit that in the shire's, then the more Labour are very likely to be the biggest party come the next GE - who as we've seen recently are the grown ups in the room.

It is when you don't follow your own rules. If they really cared, they wouldn't break their own rules. They'd also fund the NHS, which funnily enough the Lib Dems pointed out, and they won.

 

[GusB]

In the privacy of the polling booth, many within the North Shropshire electorate will have hesitated to vote for a man named Shastri from Brum. The Lie Dems will obviously deny that they encouraged racist views, and given the scale of the LD victory, clearly the unpopularity, rank incompetence and sleaze of the current Westminster administration (which became even more evident in the 2 weeks since the Old Bexley and Sidcup by-election) may have been sufficient factors by themselves

I think this says more about your own views than those of the electors of North Shropshire. They may not have approved of someone from Birmingham representing them but, in my opinion, it's more likely that they would prefer someone local to represent them and not because the candidate had an Asian name. I have no doubt that there will have been a few voters who would have been prejudiced, but to suggest they all were is rather ridiculous.

The unpopularity, rank incompetence and sleaze of the current Westminster administration was more than sufficient in my view. Your beloved Tories got a serious kicking, and rightly so.

 

[AgentGemini]

Sorry but speaking to someone who lives in Shrewsbury - it's not the "Asian name" that turned people off the election. It was the fact he wasn't local. Neil Shastri was, as GusB has said, from Birmingham and was "parachuted in" as opposed to actually being representative of the area. Combine that with Tory complacency and then incompetency, throw in Boris Johnson's Bad News Joshow and you have a recipe for the start of a glorious revolution one hopes.

First North Shropshire - next, Shrewsbury and Aitcham? And then perhaps, onward to Telford etc?

 

[Typhoon]

Sorry but speaking to someone who lives in Shrewsbury - it's not the "Asian name" that turned people off the election. It was the fact he wasn't local. Neil Shastri was, as GusB has said, from Birmingham and was "parachuted in" as opposed to actually being representative of the area.

You (and @GusB ) are right, if it was an 'Asian name' that turned voters off then Richmond (Yorks) would not be be represented by a Sunak, Witham by a Patel, Bromsgrove by a Javid and Stratford-Upon-Avon by a Zahawi. That ceiling was broken some time ago.
Further to your point two friends of mine moved from the West Midlands county to rural south Shropshire and were met with initial frostiness. Why are they here? (Wanted a rural setting, didn't work out). I would have thought that someone from a rural area. who had some empathy with the constituency was a pre-requisite - unlikely from a medical negligence barrister from one of Birmingham's smarter suburbs. The Conservatives must have known their vote would drop, long standing MP, seemingly popular - you can get away with it at a General Election, 649 other constituencies, but by-election, stands out - and allows the LibDems to concentrate their resources.

The chances of me finding it are remote, but I am sure that I read that Shastri-Hurst said that he deserved consideration as a potential candidate as he had supported quite a number of candidates over the years - that should not be how it works and it is time for constituencies (and voters) to stand up to parties that dump a candidate on them. If he is so keen to become an MP, there is a constituency on his doorstep, that once was represented by that Tory doyenne, Dame Jill Knight.

 

[317 forever]

As I've said many times back in 2016 and thereabouts, a lot of people at the time were very angry when the BBC and other media were literally every day showing all those people flooding into Europe, and we had many people coming in illegally to the UK via boat or in the back of lorries (thanks to our lack of border protection, that continues today). In 2015 and 2016, it was a big issue for the whole of Europe and Germany and Sweden DID suffer a lot of problems for a while - and the media perhaps appeared too supportive which did nothing more than help start the 'woke' arguments against the press.

Nigel Farage capitalised on this and did the whole 'breaking point' thing. We had people going on about, let's be honest, mostly muslims and the man or woman on the street claiming things like the great replacement theory and other racist stuff (fair enough, there are genuine concerns about some people coming into the UK without proper checks) but NONE OF THIS had anything to do with the EU.

But it became a focal point of the referendum, and people seemed to think if we left the EU then all our problems went away. They forgot about the benefits of freedom of travel, and how many people want to live, work and travel throughout Europe as easily as jumping on a train to go from London to Manchester.

I know someone who was pro Brexit because he was very honest and upfront that it would benefit him, and I'm sure many other people with a lot of money and access to money for investing, who saw the benefits. But the person who voted to get rid of the foreign speaking people in their town? Not so much.

Perhaps the 'best' thing about Brexit was that all these people who wanted rid of immigrants were now able to say they supported Brexit because of meaningless phrases like 'taking back control', 'not being ruled by others' and could hide their real motives. I expect many are now very angry because Brexit is hurting them financially, they've lost the ability to move to Spain, will pay more to go to Europe and queue up and need visas etc, and yet despite all those things there are still boats turning up on the coast... so much anger in fact that they're now attacking the RNLI!

Boris plays a huge part in all this because he didn't have to do Brexit as he did. He continued to show the party fears of losing support to further right parties, despite the actual numbers of people that might vote for extreme parties are likely very small numbers in the grand scheme of things.

There were even examples of people who voted Leave out of dismay that EU immigrants were allegedly "stealing our jobs". Yet now that some such EU immigrants have returned to their original countries such voters do not want to do the jobs where there are vacancies eg HGV drivers, baristas and cleaners.

 

[Bald Rick]

There were even examples of people who voted Leave out of dismay that EU immigrants were allegedly "stealing our jobs". Yet now that some such EU immigrants have returned to their original countries such voters do not want to do the jobs where there are vacancies eg HGV drivers, baristas and cleaners.

Schrödingers immigrant - stealing our jobs and taking our benefits.

 

[317 forever]

This is a return to more normal poltics. What is more astonishing is that the tories actually won Old Bexley byelection.

The tories will depose Johnson in short order unless he gets his act together. Personally I don't think having a young family with newborns and toddlers is compatible with being able to focus on the PM job properly. In fact he has probably done well to avoid a nervous breakdown.

The problem for the opposition is that so long as the SNP is so dominant in Scotland, the opposition cannot govern except in coalition with them which tbe tories will milk at elections.

For now it looks to me like Truss will replace Mr Johnson before the next election.

One difference is this. In Bexley they were voting for a successor to a well-regarded MP who had passed away. In Shropshire they were electing a successor to an MP who had resigned following alleged poor conduct.

 

[Typhoon]

One difference is this. In Bexley they were voting for a successor to a well-regarded MP who had passed away. In Shropshire they were electing a successor to an MP who had resigned following alleged poor conduct.

Plus Bexley chose a local - a councillor who represented a ward in the constituency, and had the endorsement of the deceased's family; North Shropshire chose an import.

 

[MattRat]

There were even examples of people who voted Leave out of dismay that EU immigrants were allegedly "stealing our jobs". Yet now that some such EU immigrants have returned to their original countries such voters do not want to do the jobs where there are vacancies eg HGV drivers, baristas and cleaners.

Or it could be the pay and working conditions of those jobs are poor, and should be improved, instead of relying on effectively slave labour to do them.

 

[daodao]

Alleged by whom? I can only find a thesis published this year by someone at Maastricht University called York Membery, and the summary provides no evidence or detail. It was the Liberal campaign HQ in Orpington that got burned down! (by accident, apparently). I've never heard the local populace accused of antisemitism before, although I dare say there may have been a golf club or two in the area that effectively barred Jewish people joining at that time, but they'd have been run by Tories anyway!

Chaim Bermant, in his book Troubled Eden (a detailed portrayal of the Jewish community in Great Britain published by Valentine Mitchell in 1969), wrote:

Mr Eric Lubbock might have won Orpington in 1962 in any case, but Tory chances were not helped by the fact that their candidate happened to be a Jew.

This was a widely held view at that time. Britain has become more cosmopolitan and less openly prejudiced in the last 50 years, the latter partly due to legislation and the culture of political correctness.

you can get away with it at a General Election, 649 other constituencies, but by-election, stands out - and allows the LibDems to concentrate their resources.

Exactly - which is why a local candidate is much more important at a by-election than a general election, and an outsider (whether by ethnicity/religion/place of residence) has a handicap, which is all I was trying to state. I suspect that the Tories did not expect that they would be at risk of losing the North Shropshire seat when they chose their candidate, when they were leading in the national polls. A week is sald to be a long time in politics and recent revelations about jollies in 10 Downing Street changed the political mood significantly since the previous by-election on 2nd December.

Your beloved Tories got a serious kicking, and rightly so.

You are making an incorrect presumption about my political views.

 

[Typhoon]

Exactly - which is why a local candidate is much more important at a by-election than a general election, and an outsider (whether by ethnicity/religion/place of residence) has a handicap, which is all I was trying to state. I suspect that the Tories did not expect that they would be at risk of losing the North Shropshire seat when they chose their candidate, when they were leading in the national polls. A week is sald to be a long time in politics and recent revelations about jollies in 10 Downing Street changed the political mood significantly since the previous by-election on 2nd December.

There are certain parts of the country (usually, but not always, at the periphery) where there appears to be a wariness towards outsiders for a number of reasons (eg purchasing property/ taking jobs/ changing tradition/ apparent attitude to locals). If you are an outsider, you need something to integrate yourself; so a candidate who was a farmer can talk with some knowledge not just of the crop but varieties, not just the animal but breeds; a candidate you lived in a rural location might be able to talk with some knowledge of public transport options, difficulties with accessing certain public services, whatever. Shastri-Hughes could talk with authority on - nothing.

What I was trying to do was emphasise was that it was that which I felt was most important, we are probably largely debating the order that the differences are placed (which may differ area by area). Completely agree with underlined section.
I am going to add to 'A week is said to be a long time in politics' with 'a fortnight doubly so.'

 

[43096]

There are certain parts of the country (usually, but not always, at the periphery) where there appears to be a wariness towards outsiders for a number of reasons (eg purchasing property/ taking jobs/ changing tradition/ apparent attitude to locals).

Why does Royston Vasey spring to mind?!

 

[brad465]

This is massive: Lord Frost is reported to have resigned from the Government as Brexit Minister:

Lord Frost resigns as Brexit minister

He says he hopes Boris Johnson will not be tempted by "coercive measures" to tackle Covid.

www.bbc.co.uk

Brexit minister Lord Frost has reportedly resigned from Boris Johnson's government.

Lord Frost led the UK's negotiations over the EU Withdrawal Agreement and Northern Ireland Protocol.

The Mail on Sunday, which first reported the news, said he handed Mr Johnson his resignation a week ago.

The introduction of harsher Covid restrictions in England, tax rises and climate change policy prompted his departure, the Mail on Sunday said.

The Mail said Lord Frost would leave on good terms and had been persuaded to stay in his role until January.

It comes after a week where the prime minister suffered a by-election defeat with the Conservatives losing the previously safe seat of North Shropshire - which the party had held for nearly two centuries - to the Liberal Democrats.

He also endured the biggest rebellion of his premiership so far when many of his own MPs voted against the government over the introduction of so-called Plan B curbs in England.

A total of 99 Conservatives voted against the government, but the measures - including Covid passes at larger venues - passed by a majority of 243 thanks to Labour support.

Of particular note, his reasons for resigned are believed to be policies that are not Brexit related, but include the covid response and tax rises, and apparently he resigned a week ago, which means the fact this is only emerging now suggests the Government have tried to suppress this. If Johnson was feeling uncomfortable about North Shropshire, goodness knows how anxious he is right now.