Where did it all go wrong for The Liberal Democrats ?

[Acfb]

The rail strikes may cause a few wavering Tories not to revolt. Local TV news reports (ok, they have to show 'balance') haven't shown a glimpse to me that LibDems are guaranteed to take the seat, nor that they are truly confident of doing so. I fervently hope they do overthrow the Tory though, a poor candidate who offers nothing.

We'll see what happens. The Tories should do better than they did in North Shropshire (31.6%) but I doubt they will get more than 38-40% and am leaning towards LD 50% Con 38%.

 

[deltic]

The third by-election win in Tory held seats overturning large majorities, steady double digit opinion polling results and slowly winning back council seats suggests the tide has turned again. The blue wall has a few more cracks in it this morning.

 

[Butts]

The third by-election win in Tory held seats overturning large majorities, steady double digit opinion polling results and slowly winning back council seats suggests the tide has turned again. The blue wall has a few more cracks in it this morning.

But as I'm sure you are aware the tide is a fickle beast and may well "about turn" at the next Election handing all three back to the Tories

 

[PaulHarding150]

But as I'm sure you are aware the tide is a fickle beast and may well "about turn" at the next Election handing all three back to the Tories

Possibly (although the LDs have held onto some gains in the past - Brent East, Romsey, Eastleigh to name just theee) but a fair few of these will almost certainly fall:

Conservative Marginal Seats 2025 - Election Polling

Defence lists of marginal Conservative seats for the 2025 general election and regional elections ordered by percentage swing.

www.electionpolling.co.uk

 

[deltic]

But as I'm sure you are aware the tide is a fickle beast and may well "about turn" at the next Election handing all three back to the Tories

I can see a couple of them reverting to the Tories but other seats which require a lot smaller swing are now clearly in play

 

[nw1]

I can see a couple of them reverting to the Tories but other seats which require a lot smaller swing are now clearly in play

That's the thing. Tiverton never was Lib Dem even during their 1997-2010 heyday. I would agree that its successor seats will go Tory but as others have said on the Tory thread, a fair few former Lib Dem seats may go Lib Dem once again.

 

[Busaholic]

Possibly (although the LDs have held onto some gains in the past - Brent East, Romsey, Eastleigh to name just theee) but a fair few of these will almost certainly fall:

Conservative Marginal Seats 2025 - Election Polling

Defence lists of marginal Conservative seats for the 2025 general election and regional elections ordered by percentage swing.

www.electionpolling.co.uk

The by-election with the absolute record swing, by a country (or Inner London) mile was Bermondsey, which remained in LibDem hands from that date in 1983 until 2015! Orpington was retained by Eric Lubbock too in the subsequent General Election.

 

[Gloster]

From a very quick and rough look at the period 1992-2019, the LibDems retain around a third of the seats they gain at a by-election at the next general election. (I have excluded Winchester and counted Richmond Park as a loss, even though they regained it at the election after.)

 

[thenorthern]

Here is a fact with the Liberal Democrats of the 8 constituencies they won in 2015 they only won 2 of them in 2019. That is a very high turnover rate for any party.

While their victory in Tiverton on Thursday was impressive the Roe v Wade decision in the United States seemd to overshadow it and by Friday afternoon many in the Liberal Democrats and MPs from other party seemed to care more about the Roe v Wade decision than the Tiverton result. If I was the Liberal Democrats I would have ignored the Roe v Wade decision as it has zero effect on British politics but the Tiverton by election does.

 

[daodao]

Here is a fact with the Liberal Democrats of the 8 constituencies they won in 2015 they only won 2 of them in 2019. That is a very high turnover rate for any party.

Some specific and unique facts concerning these 2 constituencies (courtesy of Wikipedia):

• Orkney & Shetland: It is a small remote constituency which has remained unchanged since its creation in 1707 following the Act of Union. It has elected only Whig, Liberal and Liberal Democrat MPs from 1837 to 1935 and since 1950. At each general election from 1955-79, and in 1987/2010/2017, it was the safest Liberal Democrat seat in the UK. In 2015, it was the only seat in Scotland to return a Liberal Democrat MP.
• Westmorland and Lonsdale: The constituency was created in 1983 and was won by Tim Farron in 2005 with a slim majority; his majority in the 2017 and 2019 general elections was also small. Since 2017, has been the only Liberal Democrat seat in the whole of Northern England. It was held by the Tories from 1983-2005 and the previous Westmorland constituency (created in 1290) was held by the Tories/Unionists continuously from 1832 to 1983.

Orkney & Shetland is the only long-term Liberal Democrat seat. I expect Westmorland and Lonsdale to revert to the Tories when Tim Farron steps down. The Lie Dems are an ephemeral "Vicar of Bray" party whose positions change with the wind and have no permanent base (Orkney & Shetland excepted).

 

[Typhoon]

Some specific and unique facts concerning these 2 constituencies (courtesy of Wikipedia):

• Orkney & Shetland: It is a small remote constituency which has remained unchanged since its creation in 1707 following the Act of Union. It has elected only Whig, Liberal and Liberal Democrat MPs from 1837 to 1935 and since 1950. At each general election from 1955-79, and in 1987/2010/2017, it was the safest Liberal Democrat seat in the UK. In 2015, it was the only seat in Scotland to return a Liberal Democrat MP.
• Westmorland and Lonsdale: The constituency was created in 1983 and was won by Tim Farron in 2005 with a slim majority; his majority in the 2017 and 2019 general elections was also small. Since 2017, has been the only Liberal Democrat seat in the whole of Northern England. It was held by the Tories from 1983-2005 and the previous Westmorland constituency (created in 1290) was held by the Tories/Unionists continuously from 1832 to 1983.

Orkney & Shetland is the only long-term Liberal Democrat seat. I expect Westmorland and Lonsdale to revert to the Tories when Tim Farron steps down. The Lie Dems are an ephemeral "Vicar of Bray" party whose positions change with the wind and have no permanent base (Orkney & Shetland excepted).

Shetland was the venue of Any Questions (R4) on Friday. In the introduction, the expected details about the distance to Bergen in Norway compared to Edinburgh and London were mentioned. One of the questions was whether Orkney and Shetland should apply for Crown Dependency status. This should say something about how the islanders feel about the mainland (that it is even a topic of conversation). They appear to be largely ignored by Westminster and Edinburgh - so Conservative or Labour for the former, and SNP or Labour for the latter. So I guess that the LibDems are going to be pretty safe there as electors try to demonstrate that in the only way available to them (within the law), although I note that both island groups show a swing to SNP in the Scottish Parliamentary elections.

I suspect what most people think about at the mention of Shetland is that a lot of people seem to get killed there!

Edit: Any Questions. I should have added, no Lib Dem spokesperson. And the SNP rep was stuck at Inverness because of fog!

 

[317 forever]

The LibDems made more net gains of Council seats than Labour in May. Now they are having bigger by-election swings in their favour than Labour. They could have starker gains than Labour at the next General Election eg up from 11 to 33 but Labour just up from 202 to 252. I'm not just referring to a trebling of their seats but the idea that they could gain a higher percentage of seats winnable with a 5% swing than Labour.