Where did it all go wrong for The Liberal Democrats ?

[Yew]

You don't think that describing the Conservative Party as a 'neo-Nazi party' is much of an exaggeration? Seriously???

Also worth pointing out that at no time did Boris Johnson 'purge the ranks of those who disagreed with him' - you're putting a pretty inaccurate spin on what happened by describing it in those terms: The MPs that had the whip removed were those who had actually voted against what if I recall correctly was a 3-line whip - it wasn't that they merely disagreed with him. I believe all the main UK parties use 3-line whips.

If Jeremy Corbyn had done such a thing, do you think that the papers would have held back with the headline "Comrade Corbyns Stalinist Purge"?

 

[nw1]

The LDs lost badly in the 2019 general election because they advocated revoking, without a further public vote, the result of the 2016 EU membership referendum. How anti-democratic can you get?

Recognising that the 2016 referendum was badly designed, as are all simple-majority referenda? "Winner takes all" interpretations of referenda with results which are close to a tie are not democracy, because you're completely ignoring the wishes of people who voted the other way.

Recognising Brexit would do more harm than good, and that part of government's responsibility is to act responsibly, not just cave in to populism? I'm sure that many more of us than voted for Brexit would vote for a maximum fare of £10 to travel anywhere in the country by train, doesn't mean that the government should hold a referendum on it and then enforce it on TOCs if 50.001% of us vote for.

While their leader (Jo "The Next Prime Minister of the UK" Swinson - that egotism probably didn't help) was poor, someone had to stand up for remainers, the Tories weren't and wishy-washy Corbyn wasn't, or at least not enough. As I said before, though, a more nuanced approach from the Lib Dems (re-run the referendum on fairer conditions, with a convincing majority needed to pass) would be more appropriate though in terms of garnering support.

 

[Acfb]

Will they at the next opportunity rise to the 62 MP's returned at the 2005 General Election ?

I think 35 maximum and more likely 20 but their long term future is now quite positive I think as the Tories might move further rightwards in opposition.

 

[neilmc]

To clarify, I don't think the Tories are ACTUALLY neo-Nazis (well, maybe one or two could be, just like maybe one or two of Labour could be described as "Communists" or whatever) - it was the way in which dissent was stifled and led to the departure of the centrist wing as Boris was pulled to the right by having to appease the Brexit party so they wouldn't stand against him in elections and split the right-wing vote. There are plenty of neo-Nazis out there in the UK, and they are very voluble online, they just haven't got a political home at the moment as the far-right constantly fractures and falls out with itself so they vote Tory as the least bad option, hence the "red wall" collapse.

For the Lib Dems, there are very few winnable Labour-held seats but lots of vulnerable Tory seats especially where the population is affluent, young and European in outlook. I do not think either the SNP or the Lib Dems would countenance any kind of coalition with the Tories again, it got the Lib Dems badly burnt and the Tories are so far to the right these days, but Labour under Keir Starmer might be doable. Also noticeable in recent elections is the way in which people left of centre are prepared to vote against the Tories rather than for one specific party - as a Lib Dem member I officially can't endorse that but let's say I fully welcome the electorate thinking this one out.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

To clarify, I don't think the Tories are ACTUALLY neo-Nazis (well, maybe one or two could be, just like maybe one or two of Labour could be described as "Communists" or whatever)

So why compare the Tories with neo-Nazis? Can you not see how inflammatory that kind of language is? Consider for example, that, in another part of Europe, a certain autocratic leader has used the exact same 'Nazi' smear as an excuse to invade a neighbouring sovereign country, an invasion which includes raping, torturing and abusing civilians, which from all reports, some of the invaders seem to feel is OK because their victims supposedly are or have supported 'Nazis'.

Using inflammatory language has consequences: Consider for example, Angela Raynor's describing the Tories as 'Scum' last year. Was it entirely a coincidence that about a week or so later, Iain Duncan Smith was actually assaulted by a group of people yelling 'Tory Scum'? (To be fair, Angela Raynor did subsequently apologise for her remarks, but only a few months later and after a Tory MP was murdered).

- it was the way in which dissent was stifled and led to the departure of the centrist wing as Boris was pulled to the right by having to appease the Brexit party so they wouldn't stand against him in elections and split the right-wing vote.

The 'dissent' being 'stifled' was that some Conservative MPs voted against the Government on a 3-line whip, and therefore had the whip withdrawn. Personally I think it was harsh not to restore the whip to allow them to stand as Conservatives at the next election, but that is how the whip system works. Indeed, Keir Starmer has done much the same thing: He's withdrawn the whip from Jeremy Corbyn, so that - as things stand - Corbyn won't be able to stand as a Labour candidate at the next election. Starmer also recently threatened to do the same thing to some other Labour MPs who signed a letter part-blaming NATO for the Ukraine invasion - until those MPs backed down and withdrew their signatures (And this was over a matter where - unlike the Tory 'dissenters', those MPs hadn't even voted against their party). But I'm going to hazard a guess that you're not intending to compare Keir Starmer to a 'neo-Nazi' for doing much the same as Boris Johnson did in 2019?

The reality is of course that there is absolutely no comparison between on the one hand, withdrawing the whip from an MP who votes against you, and on the other hand, promoting the kind of race-hate-fuelled genocide and militarism that characterizes actual Nazis. It's an utterly ludicrous hyperbole to bring the 'Nazi' word into that kind of comparison. I think that, particularly given that you say you're an elected representative, you ought to consider withdrawing that comparison.

 

[Mag_seven]

Just a reminder that this thread is for the discussion of the topic "Where did it all go wrong for the Liberal Democrats?"

 

[cjmillsnun]

The LDs lost badly in the 2019 general election because they advocated revoking, without a further public vote, the result of the 2016 EU membership referendum. How anti-democratic can you get?

Had they won (a long shot I know) one could quite successfully say they had a democratic mandate to do so. Especially considering the referendum was non binding.

 

[Butts]

Had they won (a long shot I know) one could quite successfully say they had a democratic mandate to do so. Especially considering the referendum was non binding.

Not so much a long shot but more of a pipedream

 

[daodao]

GWR could organise a special morning train for LD members only from Paddington to Tiverton Parkway on 23/6/22 and then terminate it short in a siding, ostensibly due to lack of signalman, and not release the passengers until 8 pm. The Lie Dems practice of flooding a constituency in a by-election with out-of-area activists is a distortion of democracy. It will be the 6th anniversary of "freedom day" (as Farage named it) and it would be disappointing for many for the LDs to triumph on this date.

 

[Typhoon]

GWR could organise a special morning train for LD members only from Paddington to Tiverton Parkway on 23/6/22 and then terminate it short in a siding, ostensibly due to lack of signalman, and not release the passengers until 8 pm. The Lib Dems practice of flooding a constituency in a by-election with out-of-area activists is a distortion of democracy. It will be the 6th anniversary of "freedom day" (as Farage named it) and it would be disappointing for many for the LDs to triumph on this date.

At a by-election, the Conservatives, Labour, Green, don't?

 

[birchesgreen]

Yes a weird criticism to make.

 

[nw1]

GWR could organise a special morning train for LD members only from Paddington to Tiverton Parkway on 23/6/22 and then terminate it short in a siding, ostensibly due to lack of signalman, and not release the passengers until 8 pm.

I really doubt GWR feel strongly enough on this issue to want to kidnap Lib Dem supporters for a day!

The Lie Dems practice of flooding a constituency in a by-election with out-of-area activists is a distortion of democracy.

"Lie Dems"? Not a typo I take it? So, are all other parties 100 percent honest? Do the Lib Dems lie more than the others? With Johnson's recent behaviour, I somehow doubt it.

It will be the 6th anniversary of "freedom day" (as Farage named it) and it would be disappointing for many for the LDs to triumph on this date.

So what? For some of us it would be quite the opposite.

 

[neilmc]

Lib Dems will most certainly flood Honiton and Tiverton and are doing so as I type, similarly Labour will flood Wakefield, not necessarily with "activists", whatever that term might imply, but ordinary members who have the time and resources to do some door-knocking, leafletting or whatever's needed. This is part of the political process when there's a by-election to be won, and when there's two taking place at the same time one of which is winnable and one of which isn't the winnable one will be concentrated on. The problem for the Tories is of course that both are highly losable and to choose which bears most defending, and if you are part of the 40% of Tory MPs which wants Boris gone might a couple of losses which won't actually affect the parliamentary make-up not be all that bad a thing? (These things are not stated so overtly of course by any of the parties but they are the reality).

I'm not going to apologise for using terms like "neo-Nazi" - for Hitler's party to take over an advanced and sophisticated nation like 1930s Germany was a stunning piece of politics which parties to the right of centre are studying to this day and seeing what they can appropriate - overt Aryan-style racism is clearly not applicable in the UK at least, not because they consider it wrong but because it doesn't garner the votes it might have fifty years ago, and the Conservative front bench is, to be fair, now quite multi-ethnic, however the treatment of unwanted immigrants like toxic waste who can be shipped off to a third country in Africa to be "processed" is typical of the low value of human life which both members of the Royal Family and senior members of the Church Of England have recently spoken against. Ditto the suggestion that we dispense with our obligations to the European Court of Human Rights - no it's nothing to do with the EU as such - because the UK has been held to account by it should be a chilling realisation of where UK Conservatism is heading unless they are soundly beaten in elections and forced to rethink.

 

[najaB]

I'm not going to apologise for using terms like "neo-Nazi" - for Hitler's party to take over an advanced and sophisticated nation like 1930s Germany was a stunning piece of politics which parties to the right of centre are studying to this day and seeing what they can appropriate - overt Aryan-style racism is clearly not applicable in the UK at least, not because they consider it wrong but because it doesn't garner the votes it might have fifty years ago, and the Conservative front bench is, to be fair, now quite multi-ethnic, however the treatment of unwanted immigrants like toxic waste who can be shipped off to a third country in Africa to be "processed" is typical of the low value of human life which both members of the Royal Family and senior members of the Church Of England have recently spoken against. Ditto the suggestion that we dispense with our obligations to the European Court of Human Rights - no it's nothing to do with the EU as such - because the UK has been held to account by it should be a chilling realisation of where UK Conservatism is heading unless they are soundly beaten in elections and forced to rethink.

To that mind, consider the 14 Characteristics of Fascism and how many are on display by the UK government and its supporters:

1. Powerful and Continuing Nationalism
2. Disdain for the Recognition of Human Rights
3. Identification of Enemies/Scapegoats as a Unifying Cause
4. Supremacy of the Military
5. Rampant Sexism
6. Controlled Mass Media
7. Obsession with National Security
8. Religion and Government are Intertwined
9. Corporate Power is Protected
10. Labour Power is Suppressed
11. Disdain for Intellectuals and the Arts
12. Obsession with Crime and Punishment
13. Rampant Cronyism and Corruption
14. Fraudulent Elections

By my count we're more than half-way there.

 

[thenorthern]

Ed Davey isn't a brilliant leader, he still has the image of the coalition about him which of caused the party to implode in the first place. Also many of his policies would not stand up to scrutiny at an election. Fracking is one he seems to be very much against even though the was the energy minister who approved it in the first place.

Come the next election I think the party will do worse than in 2019.

 

[Busaholic]

To that mind, consider the 14 Characteristics of Fascism and how many are on display by the UK government and its supporters:

1. Powerful and Continuing Nationalism
2. Disdain for the Recognition of Human Rights
3. Identification of Enemies/Scapegoats as a Unifying Cause
4. Supremacy of the Military
5. Rampant Sexism
6. Controlled Mass Media
7. Obsession with National Security
8. Religion and Government are Intertwined
9. Corporate Power is Protected
10. Labour Power is Suppressed
11. Disdain for Intellectuals and the Arts
12. Obsession with Crime and Punishment
13. Rampant Cronyism and Corruption
14. Fraudulent Elections

By my count we're more than half-way there. the the

Just to add to your point no. 14, making participation in elections as difficult as possible for anyone who hasn't got the newly-minted. mandated requirements for proof of 'identity'. Clearly adopted from the Trumpetisation of the U.S. political system. Incidentally, a study of Mussolini style fascism (his movement first used the word in its original Italian) is as instructive as looking at pre-war Germany.

 

[thenorthern]

Lib Dems will most certainly flood Honiton and Tiverton and are doing so as I type, similarly Labour will flood Wakefield, not necessarily with "activists", whatever that term might imply, but ordinary members who have the time and resources to do some door-knocking, leafletting or whatever's needed. This is part of the political process when there's a by-election to be won, and when there's two taking place at the same time one of which is winnable and one of which isn't the winnable one will be concentrated on. The problem for the Tories is of course that both are highly losable and to choose which bears most defending, and if you are part of the 40% of Tory MPs which wants Boris gone might a couple of losses which won't actually affect the parliamentary make-up not be all that bad a thing? (These things are not stated so overtly of course by any of the parties but they are the reality).

I'm not going to apologise for using terms like "neo-Nazi" - for Hitler's party to take over an advanced and sophisticated nation like 1930s Germany was a stunning piece of politics which parties to the right of centre are studying to this day and seeing what they can appropriate - overt Aryan-style racism is clearly not applicable in the UK at least, not because they consider it wrong but because it doesn't garner the votes it might have fifty years ago, and the Conservative front bench is, to be fair, now quite multi-ethnic, however the treatment of unwanted immigrants like toxic waste who can be shipped off to a third country in Africa to be "processed" is typical of the low value of human life which both members of the Royal Family and senior members of the Church Of England have recently spoken against. Ditto the suggestion that we dispense with our obligations to the European Court of Human Rights - no it's nothing to do with the EU as such - because the UK has been held to account by it should be a chilling realisation of where UK Conservatism is heading unless they are soundly beaten in elections and forced to rethink.

Labour were always going to regain Wakefield, I would be more shocked if they didn't win it. It will be the first Labour by election gain in 10 years though. There last one was Corby in 2012.

With Tiverton and Honiton the Liberal Democrats may win it however like North Shropshire and Chesham & Amersham I doubt they will hold it at the next election. Many times such as Brecon and Radnorshire, Richmond Park, Dunfermline West and Fife, Leicester South, Littlebrough and Saddleworth, Christchurch and several others the Liberal Democrats have gained seats in by elections from the Government but not held them at the next election.

The main thing is with by elections is that 5 years of Jeremy Corbyn made us forget that the opposition should normally do well in by elections.

And important

 

[SuperNova]

With Tiverton and Honiton the Liberal Democrats may win it however like North Shropshire and Chesham & Amersham I doubt they will hold it at the next election. Many times such as Brecon and Radnorshire, Richmond Park, Dunfermline West and Fife, Leicester South, Littlebrough and Saddleworth, Christchurch and several others the Liberal Democrats have gained seats in by elections from the Government but not held them at the next election.

The main thing is with by elections is that 5 years of Jeremy Corbyn made us forget that the opposition should normally do well in by elections.

100% this. The Lib Dems are returning to their former position of being the protest vote for many who didn't like the two main parties. I doubt that North Shropshire will remain Lib Dem in a General election, given that only once previously in 40 years has the Tory vote share been below 50% and that was in 1997 (unless Bozo is still PM). However, what the LDs are doing now is putting forward decent local candidates, which hasn't been the case for a while.

Ed Davey isn't a brilliant leader, he still has the image of the coalition about him which of caused the party to implode in the first place. Also many of his policies would not stand up to scrutiny at an election. Fracking is one he seems to be very much against even though the was the energy minister who approved it in the first place.

Come the next election I think the party will do worse than in 2019.

While they may lack the proper leadership of Ashdown and Kennedy (oh how to have those two in charge), I suspect that the Tories have alienated the votes they took from the Lib Dems after the coalition. Certainly the Lib Dems won't get their youth vote back anytime soon that they had in 2010, but it many of those blue wall areas, Lib Dems have been doing very well in polling and local elections. Suspect Lib Dems will remain around 12% of the vote share but gain more seats, especially down in the south/south west.

 

[thenorthern]

100% this. The Lib Dems are returning to their former position of being the protest vote for many who didn't like the two main parties. I doubt that North Shropshire will remain Lib Dem in a General election, given that only once previously in 40 years has the Tory vote share been below 50% and that was in 1997 (unless Bozo is still PM). However, what the LDs are doing now is putting forward decent local candidates, which hasn't been the case for a while.

While they may lack the proper leadership of Ashdown and Kennedy (oh how to have those two in charge), I suspect that the Tories have alienated the votes they took from the Lib Dems after the coalition. Certainly the Lib Dems won't get their youth vote back anytime soon that they had in 2010, but it many of those blue wall areas, Lib Dems have been doing very well in polling and local elections. Suspect Lib Dems will remain around 12% of the vote share but gain more seats, especially down in the south/south west.

The Liberal Democrats don't really have any safe seats anymore. Their current longest held seat is Orkney and Shetland held since 1950, second longest is Westmorland and Lonsdale held since 2005. A lot of their "safe" areas such as Berwick-upon-Tweed and Cornwall they aren't even managing second place anymore. Interesting fact with Cornwall is that in 2005 every MP in Cornwall was Liberal Democrat and they got 44% of the vote. In 2019 they got 19% of the vote and only managed 2nd place in 2 of the 6 constituencies.

 

[Gloster]

Based on no more than instinct, I can’t see them picking up more than a couple of dozen seats at the next election if the surrounding political situation is similar to what it is today. These will mostly be seats where they came a reasonably close second to the Conservatives, Labour was a fair way behind and the sitting MP has tied themselves to Johnson’s coattails, even if he has gone.

A problem for the LibDems is that all too many of their current lot just seem to be another variety of the professional politician to be seen in other parties. Previous high-profile Libs and LibDems did at least seem to include a fair number of people who weren’t just there to climb the greasy pole. Nick Clegg’s 2010 Lust for Glory did enormous damage to the party.

 

[Revilo]

To that mind, consider the 14 Characteristics of Fascism and how many are on display by the UK government and its supporters:

1. Powerful and Continuing Nationalism
2. Disdain for the Recognition of Human Rights
3. Identification of Enemies/Scapegoats as a Unifying Cause
4. Supremacy of the Military
5. Rampant Sexism
6. Controlled Mass Media
7. Obsession with National Security
8. Religion and Government are Intertwined
9. Corporate Power is Protected
10. Labour Power is Suppressed
11. Disdain for Intellectuals and the Arts
12. Obsession with Crime and Punishment
13. Rampant Cronyism and Corruption
14. Fraudulent Elections

By my count we're more than half-way there.

Which ones?

 

[317 forever]

Ed Davey isn't a brilliant leader, he still has the image of the coalition about him which of caused the party to implode in the first place. Also many of his policies would not stand up to scrutiny at an election. Fracking is one he seems to be very much against even though the was the energy minister who approved it in the first place.

Come the next election I think the party will do worse than in 2019.

I doubt they will do worse. Although they were wiped out of Leave areas, Brexit has been implemented and will work much less against them than in 2019 when - lest we forget - their vote share did already improve by over 3%.

Since then, their Council seat gains and by-election wins will work in their favour: the former for having more elected Councils in their target areas, and the latter for displaying that they can win. (Admittedly their specific by-election wins seem likely to be reversed except perhaps Amersham).

Had the members elected Layla Moran as leader, I think they would be doing better because she would have provided a fresher post-Coalition outlook to the LibDems.

 

[najaB]

Which ones?

I was leaving it as an exercise for the reader, but:

1. Powerful and Continuing Nationalism: Brexit is largely driven by and used to stoke up nationalism. "Great Britain versus the Evil EU". The literal desire to wrap the flag around everything, return of Imperial measures
2. Disdain for the Recognition of Human Rights: The government is threatening to leave the European Court of Human Rights because "Lefties and the ECHR" keep getting in the way of Government business like shipping refugees off to the other side of the world
3. Identification of Enemies/Scapegoats as a Unifying Cause: Does the phrase "Enemies of the people" ring any bells?
4. Supremacy of the Military
5. Rampant Sexism: She just wears a short skirt to distract Boris...
6. Controlled Mass Media
7. Obsession with National Security: - the Snooper's Charter, Police and Crime Bill, some of the Covid measures
8. Religion and Government are Intertwined
9. Corporate Power is Protected: See Brexit
10. Labour Power is Suppressed: Taken a look at the Trade Union Act? Or how about the recent proclamation by government that scab workers will be allowed during the upcoming strikes?
11. Disdain for Intellectuals and the Arts
12. Obsession with Crime and Punishment
13. Rampant Cronyism and Corruption: Exactly how many billions were spent on a Track and Trace system that neither tracked nor traced, how much money was bunged to Tory donors for PPE that could never be used? Funny isn't it how almost every Conservative Party treasurer both made large donations, and was also made a Peer.
14. Fraudulent Elections: As noted by @Busaholic above, trying to make it harder for people to vote rather than easier

 

[thenorthern]

Based on no more than instinct, I can’t see them picking up more than a couple of dozen seats at the next election if the surrounding political situation is similar to what it is today. These will mostly be seats where they came a reasonably close second to the Conservatives, Labour was a fair way behind and the sitting MP has tied themselves to Johnson’s coattails, even if he has gone.

A problem for the LibDems is that all too many of their current lot just seem to be another variety of the professional politician to be seen in other parties. Previous high-profile Libs and LibDems did at least seem to include a fair number of people who weren’t just there to climb the greasy pole. Nick Clegg’s 2010 Lust for Glory did enormous damage to the party.

That is a fair point in the late 2000s they had several fairly well known MPs such as Lembit Opik, Norman Lamb, Norman Baker, Simon Hughes and John Hemming. The current lot is relatively inexperienced and isn't making much of an impact.

I doubt they will do worse. Although they were wiped out of Leave areas, Brexit has been implemented and will work much less against them than in 2019 when - lest we forget - their vote share did already improve by over 3%.

Since then, their Council seat gains and by-election wins will work in their favour: the former for having more elected Councils in their target areas, and the latter for displaying that they can win. (Admittedly their specific by-election wins seem likely to be reversed except perhaps Amersham).

Had the members elected Layla Moran as leader, I think they would be doing better because she would have provided a fresher post-Coalition outlook to the LibDems.

Liberal Democrats have always done well in council elections compared to general elections. Agree about Ed Davey having too much baggage from the coalition about him which Layla Moran didn't have. I think when it comes to election time Ed Davey will struggle in interviews when his policies are scrutinised.

One thing which will be interesting about the Liberal Democrats is what will they choose as their target voter. In 2019 and 2017 it was those who voted remain and wanted to stop Brexit. In 2015 they didn't have one, in 2010 it was those who weren't happy with Labour but didn't want to vote Conservative as well as students. In 2005 it was those who weren't happy with Labour's Iraq war and students.

 

[neilmc]

Liberal Democrats don't have "safe seats" and the recent council results show interesting reading as to what our "target voter" might be. Doing so well in Westmorland and Furness and Somerset new unitaries, plus winning Gosport and Woking suggests that the Lib Dems are gaining ground in affluent rural and suburban areas i.e. prime Tory territory as was - yet we also gained Hull which is a very different city! At the same time, the spectacular result in Westmorland and Furness conceals the complete lack of success in the Furness part (i.e. Barrow) where we simply don't have the members, volunteers or serious potential councillors.

My premise is that Lib Dems will not win seats which change hands between Labour and Conservative since under FPTP there is a fear of letting in the party you least want to win by voting Lib Dem, so they will target primarily the seats they lost after the Nick Clegg debacle, rural seats where the Tories are vulnerable and Labour have next to no presence and a few urban areas where they are the second party to Labour. Also there is the "yellow creep" - if the Lib Dems are seen to run a council well or have a good MP, then the most obvious target is the adjoining council/constituency. I'm hopeful of a steady gain both in Lib Dem councils and parliamentary seats but not anything which changes the face of UK politics just yet, and this will obviously primarily be at the expense of the Conservatives.

 

[thenorthern]

Liberal Democrats don't have "safe seats" and the recent council results show interesting reading as to what our "target voter" might be. Doing so well in Westmorland and Furness and Somerset new unitaries, plus winning Gosport and Woking suggests that the Lib Dems are gaining ground in affluent rural and suburban areas i.e. prime Tory territory as was - yet we also gained Hull which is a very different city! At the same time, the spectacular result in Westmorland and Furness conceals the complete lack of success in the Furness part (i.e. Barrow) where we simply don't have the members, volunteers or serious potential councillors.

My premise is that Lib Dems will not win seats which change hands between Labour and Conservative since under FPTP there is a fear of letting in the party you least want to win by voting Lib Dem, so they will target primarily the seats they lost after the Nick Clegg debacle, rural seats where the Tories are vulnerable and Labour have next to no presence and a few urban areas where they are the second party to Labour. Also there is the "yellow creep" - if the Lib Dems are seen to run a council well or have a good MP, then the most obvious target is the adjoining council/constituency. I'm hopeful of a steady gain both in Lib Dem councils and parliamentary seats but not anything which changes the face of UK politics just yet, and this will obviously primarily be at the expense of the Conservatives.

Orkney and Shetland is the main one the party will never lose, I am told more than anything that is down to the demographics of the islands. Ironically though Shetland is one of the most eurosceptic parts of Scotland. The most eurosceptic though is Fraserburgh and Peterhead.

Berwick-upon-Tweed and the Scottish Borders used to be very safe for the Liberal Democrats since the 1970s however is Berwick the party has been relegated to 3rd place for the last two elections. The once relatively large party within Berwick has also disappeared and is unlikely to return.

 

[neilmc]

Most of Scotland thinks that London is the big bad unaccountable bureaucratic steam roller. In Orkney and Shetland they think it's Edinburgh.

 

[Busaholic]

If the Tories cling on to Tiverton and Honiton by the skin of their teeth, which they may well, Johnson will spin it as a fantastic victory: he'd probably do the same even if the LibDems score a narrow win, lying that they were expecting far worse, or even pretending that thousands of voters had been so outraged at Neil Parish's 'tractor' watching that he was entirely to blame. The Green vote alone may make the difference in the end result (we've seen this in the St Ives, Cornwall seat at least once in recent years.) The Lib Dems and Greens should have agreed an alliance here:even Reform UK are standing. Never has Proportional Representation been more needed than in today's world! UKIP are unlikely to split the Tory vote significantly, unless the latter lose by a few handfuls of votes.

 

[Acfb]

If the Tories cling on to Tiverton and Honiton by the skin of their teeth, which they may well, Johnson will spin it as a fantastic victory: he'd probably do the same even if the LibDems score a narrow win, lying that they were expecting far worse, or even pretending that thousands of voters had been so outraged at Neil Parish's 'tractor' watching that he was entirely to blame. The Green vote alone may make the difference in the end result (we've seen this in the St Ives, Cornwall seat at least once in recent years.) The Lib Dems and Greens should have agreed an alliance here:even Reform UK are standing. Never has Proportional Representation been more needed than in today's world! UKIP are unlikely to split the Tory vote significantly, unless the latter lose by a few handfuls of votes.

Isn't a Tory loss already baked in ? I'm not sure if it will have that much effect on Tory MPs although the last time the Tories lost two by elections on the same day was in 1991. I will be amazed if the Lib Dems do not gain it by 5000+ tomorrow like North Shropshire given they are already saying they are level pegging (as a GOTV measure).

I still think the most likely scenario is Johnson being ousted in 2023 (although not ruling him out from fighting the next GE due to combination of delusion from some Tory MPs/Starmer's weaknesses).

 

[Busaholic]

Isn't a Tory loss already baked in ? I'm not sure if it will have that much effect on Tory MPs although the last time the Tories lost two by elections on the same day was in 1991. I will be amazed if the Lib Dems do not gain it by 5000+ tomorrow like North Shropshire given they are already saying they are level pegging (as a GOTV measure).

I still think the most likely scenario is Johnson being ousted in 2023 (although not ruling him out from fighting the next GE due to combination of delusion from some Tory MPs/Starmer's weaknesses).

The rail strikes may cause a few wavering Tories not to revolt. Local TV news reports (ok, they have to show 'balance') haven't shown a glimpse to me that LibDems are guaranteed to take the seat, nor that they are truly confident of doing so. I fervently hope they do overthrow the Tory though, a poor candidate who offers nothing.