Which lines are currently breaking even?

[telstarbox]

Are there any lines which are currently covering their costs? Not expecting a definitive answer here but let's say that means the ticket revenue covers the total of track access, train leasing and direct staff costs (not TOC overheads). And that the lines don't need any maintenance

 

[yorkie]

You mean train services, rather than a physical line?

Is this a question for people with access to data, or a chance for people to simply guess?

 

[Metal_gee_man]

I can't imagine many are breaking even, there'll be a few services that may during peak make some profit but I would hazard a guess some off peak services running round with 8 or 12 cars with only a ¼ or an ⅛ load on paying track access charges for those 8 or 12 carriages is ripping the profit away an making pretty much all services run in the red

 

[The Planner]

A line that doesnt need maintenance?

 

[yorkie]

A line that doesnt need maintenance?

I think the question is which service patterns are profitable for TOCs.

 

[Starmill]

I think the question just means the direct costs of operating the train itself i.e. the lease, maintenance miles, traction energy, general servicing, and crew costs.

Probably most long-distance trains fully loaded at 8-11 cars, especially if electric. But if you mean taking the service group as a whole across a period or a year... maybe none?

 

[HYPODERMIC]

Is it true that the railway as a whole doesn't even really know this for sure?

I'm sure I remember hearing somewhere that Northern were 'experimenting' (!!!) with proper profit-and-loss accounting on one of their north-east coastal lines to try and figure out actually what the route/service cost in terms of maintenance, staffing, train running vs what it brought in at the farebox. I took the impression that the current fragmentation and complex contractualisation of the franchised railway made it surprisingly difficult to produce line-by-line, year-by-year profit/loss figures. Whereas presumably such figures would have existed, and been very closely monitored, back in the Regional Railways days?

If what I heard was right - and I might well have misinterpreted it - I'm a bit surprised that TOCs don't already have bottom-line 'P&L' figures for every line they run. But then I suppose if the infrastructure costs are blobbed together by Network Rail and you pay them a big blob of network grant; and if all your rolling stock is leased and paid in a big batch contract with unit allocations by route fluctuating over the life of that contract; then perhaps the TOC can't actually disaggregate and/or attribute revenue and costs line-by-line?

Something I imagine Great British Railways will be wanting to look closely at over the next few years though, as efficiencies bite...?

 

[jfisher21]

Maybe liverpool street - shenfield, always busy, often jam packed!

 

[The exile]

Is it true that the railway as a whole doesn't even really know this for sure?

I'm sure I remember hearing somewhere that Northern were 'experimenting' (!!!) with proper profit-and-loss accounting on one of their north-east coastal lines to try and figure out actually what the route/service cost in terms of maintenance, staffing, train running vs what it brought in at the farebox. I took the impression that the current fragmentation and complex contractualisation of the franchised railway made it surprisingly difficult to produce line-by-line, year-by-year profit/loss figures. Whereas presumably such figures would have existed, and been very closely monitored, back in the Regional Railways days?

If what I heard was right - and I might well have misinterpreted it - I'm a bit surprised that TOCs don't already have bottom-line 'P&L' figures for every line they run. But then I suppose if the infrastructure costs are blobbed together by Network Rail and you pay them a big blob of network grant; and if all your rolling stock is leased and paid in a big batch contract with unit allocations by route fluctuating over the life of that contract; then perhaps the TOC can't actually disaggregate and/or attribute revenue and costs line-by-line?

Something I imagine Great British Railways will be wanting to look closely at over the next few years though, as efficiencies bite...?

The thing is that even “ bottom line P&L figures” are subject to a lot of interpretation and therefore not that simple. How do you measure the burden on a particular service of infrastructure maintenance that has to be done whether that service runs or not ( and indeed may not even be necessary for that particular service?) Even recognising the fact that although a particular passenger invariably catches the 16.10 from A to B, they only use the train at all because the 16.25 is also there as a fallback option makes it difficult to apportion revenue too precisely! There’s a danger of repeating lots of the mistakes of the past….

 

[ValentaFan1974]

I would suggest that XC have probably been quite profitable this summer due to staycations and being a leisure TOC in the main etc. Most trains to and from the SW have been jammed solid - and that’s running with double sets as well when pre-Covid they were single sets mainly.

TOC’s that more heavily favour commuters are probably struggling…

 

[Metal_gee_man]

I would suggest that XC have probably been quite profitable this summer due to staycations and being a leisure TOC in the main etc. Most trains to and from the SW have been jammed solid - and that’s running with double sets as well when pre-Covid they were single sets mainly.

TOC’s that more heavily favour commuters are probably struggling…

Double sets, double access charges and many of those miles running no where near capacity?

 

[Horizon22]

Probably a few Overground lines & possibly TfL Rail services. Stubbornly busy these ones as have the inner/outer London services broadly anyway. Maybe some of the seaside destinations so S. West England services were often packed, but also had some delays caused by infrastructure and staff problems and can be costly to run.

But its an incredibly complex figure to dig out, so not sure anyone can be absolutely certain.

 

[sw1ller]

I was told by a now retired manager that the North Wales Coast Line pretty much covers most of TfWs business. That’s why there’s never been a north/south split. Don’t know how true that was 6 years ago or now.

 

[Clarence Yard]

Is it true that the railway as a whole doesn't even really know this for sure?

I'm sure I remember hearing somewhere that Northern were 'experimenting' (!!!) with proper profit-and-loss accounting on one of their north-east coastal lines to try and figure out actually what the route/service cost in terms of maintenance, staffing, train running vs what it brought in at the farebox. I took the impression that the current fragmentation and complex contractualisation of the franchised railway made it surprisingly difficult to produce line-by-line, year-by-year profit/loss figures. Whereas presumably such figures would have existed, and been very closely monitored, back in the Regional Railways days?

If what I heard was right - and I might well have misinterpreted it - I'm a bit surprised that TOCs don't already have bottom-line 'P&L' figures for every line they run. But then I suppose if the infrastructure costs are blobbed together by Network Rail and you pay them a big blob of network grant; and if all your rolling stock is leased and paid in a big batch contract with unit allocations by route fluctuating over the life of that contract; then perhaps the TOC can't actually disaggregate and/or attribute revenue and costs line-by-line?

Something I imagine Great British Railways will be wanting to look closely at over the next few years though, as efficiencies bite...?

Profit/Loss figures for each line went out of fashion in the 1970's, way before sectorisation and privatisation. The way the railways are funded (& controlled) both then and now means there is no need to go to that level of detail. That kind of information hasn't really existed in decades and it would be quite an achievement to get it sorted out now - for example, there would be a need for a full discussion on how you would attribute certain costs.

 

[WelshBluebird]

Double sets, double access charges and many of those miles running no where near capacity?

Running pretty much a half timetable though so back down to the same access charges I'd have thought.
And I'm not so sure about how much of those miles are "no where near capacity". Certainly every XC journey I've been on in recent months (which basically covers Plymouth to York across four different journeys) have all been pretty damn busy!!

 

[Bald Rick]

Cross Country don’t make money.
London Overhround don’t make money.

The lines making money at TOC level, ie excluding Network Grant, will be the same as those preCovid, just fewer of them. LNER to Edinburgh and Leeds, Avanti (especially with N Wales binned), some of the high speed and Thames Valley parts of GWR, the London - Sheffield / Nottingham part of EMR, c2c on the main line, some of the longer distance parts of GTR, GA, SWR, and Southeastern, and that’s about it.

 

[Grecian 1998]

Cross Country don’t make money.
London Overhround don’t make money.

The lines making money at TOC level, ie excluding Network Grant, will be the same as those preCovid, just fewer of them. LNER to Edinburgh and Leeds, Avanti (especially with N Wales binned), some of the high speed and Thames Valley parts of GWR, the London - Sheffield / Nottingham part of EMR, c2c on the main line, some of the longer distance parts of GTR, GA, SWR, and Southeastern, and that’s about it.

Sounds like a slightly expanded version of the infamous Option A of the 1982 Serpell Report. Not too surprising really though.

 

[Ianno87]

I would suggest that XC have probably been quite profitable this summer due to staycations and being a leisure TOC in the main etc. Most trains to and from the SW have been jammed solid - and that’s running with double sets as well when pre-Covid they were single sets mainly.

TOC’s that more heavily favour commuters are probably struggling…

Though their core Birmingham commuter business is somewhat absent.