Which specific train journey is the most profitable in the UK?

[Nottingham59]

First is always full too, with paying customers.
From chatting to others I've met Doctors, solicitors etc. all paying top dollar.

Sure. But a voyager has 26 first class seats, so 52 doubled up. An 11-car Pendolino has 99. I don't know how full Avanti services get in the morning peaks, though.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Do you have up to date figures for the cost full 25kV electrification for the 'missing bits' to Southampton and/or Felixstowe? (Along with the related upgrades to Haughley Junction, Soham, Ely North, level crossings and so on for Felixstowe.)
Given that intermodal traffic is highly competitive between multiple FOCs, let alone against road haulage, can you clarify why one player might find it highly profitable?
I also note that in the last reported year total track access charges paid to Network Rail by the FOCs were £11 million. How long would it take NR to make a profit on the flow?

I originally wrote this bit just with Felixstowe in mind, thinking of Ipswich-Trafford Park being electric (via Willesden obviously).
Then I added Southampton, forgetting that was essentially non-electrified.
Although a class 92 theoretically could make it most of the way via the WLL.

I think what I really meant was that if such core freight trains are not profitable, we should all give up now...
I have no figures of course.

 

[RailWonderer]

I think i read it here - bit out of date now but it's obviously an expensive option although with my fip discount I favour it.

Travelling on the most expensive railway in the world? (The Heathrow Express) - Miles from Blighty

I hate the Heathrow Express. Let me get that out right up front. “Why?” you may reasonably ask. It’s simply the following: A £20 ticket for a 15 minute journey seems radically expensive when compared with the price for a journey to the airport by Tube of £5.50 (cash fare). Of course an...

milesfromblighty.boardingarea.com

If you book the Heathrow Express in advance with a railcard and travel to T5 and back it's about 50p a minute (£21 for a 20 min there and back), which isn't the most expensive fare in the country. My local return to Chelmsford is more expensive than that.

 

[ac6000cw]

I think what I really meant was that if such core freight trains are not profitable, we should all give up now...

In reality both rail and road freight are subsidised in the UK by way of not contributing as much as they should (in theory) to the costs of the infrastructure they use. This helps keep the costs of goods in shops etc. lower, which helps the less well off in particular.

(The comments that follow are mostly based on a long interest in US rail freight operation)

Traditionally, hauling bulk minerals (coal in particular) has been the 'cash cow' of the rail freight business, because if you're efficient it's good 'baseload' business with high asset utilisation (long heavy trains to maximise crew productivity, fast loading and unloading, low terminal and yard costs, simple wagons and often 'owning' the whole haul from mine to power station etc.). Intermodal tends to be harder to make a good profit at because containers are easy to switch to other modes (so more price/service competition) and rail tends to be the 'bit in the middle' of the chain i.e. it's just a sub-contractor for part of the journey of a container in a very competitive market.

The steady decline of the railroad coal business in the US is a major issue for some of the railroads there - there is intermodal business to be had, but competing with trucking for the shorter distance flows e.g. less than 500 miles, is really difficult when you might have to transfer a container to/from a truck at both ends of its journey. It's hard to get the costs of the rail part of the journey low enough (while maintaining a decent 'service level' in terms of frequency and speed) to be price and speed competitive with trucking it the whole way.

 

[deltic]

Based on some very old, c15 years ago, data and bearing in mind that revenue allocation to a train level is highly dodgy, the most profitable trains then, based on a very rough calculation of revenue per minute, would have been morning peak services from Brighton to Victoria, Birmingham New St to Euston and Leeds to Kings Cross (the latter would have far higher operating costs). Since then high value business travel has been lost but people have moved from discounted season tickets to peak singles which probably means Brighton to Victoria on a Thursday morning peak service is possibly the most profitable now.

 

[mrcheek]

Would it necessarily be a passenger train?

this is some clever outside the box thinking here.

On similar logic, even if it is a passenger train, surely we should be mainly thinking about Open Access services, which are by their very nature designed to return a profit. Unlike all other services....

 

[ac6000cw]

Based on some very old, c15 years ago, data and bearing in mind that revenue allocation to a train level is highly dodgy, the most profitable trains then, based on a very rough calculation of revenue per minute, would have been morning peak services from Brighton to Victoria, Birmingham New St to Euston and Leeds to Kings Cross (the latter would have far higher operating costs). Since then high value business travel has been lost but people have moved from discounted season tickets to peak singles which probably means Brighton to Victoria on a Thursday morning peak service is possibly the most profitable now.

I suspect pre-Covid the fast morning peak 12-car DOO EMU trains from Cambridge to KGX would also have been well up the profitability rankings (and maybe still are).

 

[Western Sunset]

Wonder if Merehead/Whatley aggregate flows are more lucrative than inter-modals?

 

[GilfachFargoed]

Slightly off topic, but there was a recent survey of 8 hour weekday stay in station car park.

Oxford was highest in UK for station car park £31.50
Gatwick Airport highest for car park by a station £50.00
Munich Hbf highest in Europe €49 (£41.78)

Train Station Parking Report

Trains connect us to our favourite places, but how costly it is to park at some of the busiest train stations? We explore stations across the UK and Europe.

www.moneybarn.com

Interesting. Note that the Oxford price is a 'Non-rail users' rate (for those parking before 10:00), there is a lower £7.00 'Rail users' daily rate. Assuming that the mechanism hasn't changed the 'Rail users' rate is obtained by use of a code (that regularly changes) that is displayed on a digital display on the station platforms.

 

[HSTEd]

If trains are consistently full and standing including Toilets, Vestibules & any other spare space, then surely XC must be most profitable & if not why not ??

Because it has huge staff costs and (thanks to low operating speeds), terrible rolling stock utilisation

Also very low seating density.

 

[norbitonflyer]

Traditionally, hauling bulk minerals (coal in particular) has been the 'cash cow' of the rail freight business, because if you're efficient it's good 'baseload' business with high asset utilisation (long heavy trains to maximise crew productivity, fast loading and unloading, low terminal and yard costs, simple wagons and often 'owning' the whole haul from mine to power station etc.).

It occurred to me during my brief time working in the power industry (summer holiday job while at University, monitoring the MGR trains*) that as the mines, the power statoin, and the railway were all, at the time, nationalised, the amounts each charged the other for digging the coal out of the ground and trasporting it from mine to power station were quite arbitrary. You could make any one of the three operations (or even two of them) appear profitable just by adjusting the prices. "Wooden dollars", I think the phrase is). And, consequently, to cite any nationalised industry's profitability or otherwise without taking into account any subsidies or profits made by the other nationalised industries with with they work is completely arbitrary.

*They were having problems that the weighbridges which weighed the wagons were misbehaving in an apparently random way. I was tasked with looking into it.

1. the gross weighbridge was calibrated only to read between 30 and 60 tons, the tare one from 0-30. This was fine as the tare weight was about 13 tones and the gross 13+32=45 - UNLESS there was an empty wagon in the consist or, for any reason, one of the wagons failed to discharge. The former would read as 30 tons gross, inventing a phantom 17 tons of coal delievered that wasn't there. The latter would read as 30 tons tare, making it look as if 15 tons had been delivered that were in fact still in the wagon.
2. Occasionally it weighed an extra phantom wagon that was missing altogether from the "Tare" weighbridge (after). The weighbridges knew when to take a measurement because there were axle detectors spaced apart by the wheelbase of an HAA wagon - when both detected an axle, a measurement was taken. Where the extra measurement was coming from and why it seemed quite random was a mystery to the coal plant staff, until I spotted that it only happpened on one of the two unloading roads, and only when a Class 47 was hauling the train (most trains - about 75% - were 56s, and the coal plant staff were unaware of the difference, but as I had been recording the loco numbers for my own interest the pattern became apparent to me very quickly - but of course I had to check and recheck my theory by observing more coal trains..............). It transpired that the axle detectors on the approach side of one of the discharge bays were slightly misaligned, and although it was not enough to fail to detect the wagons, the spacing between the rear axle of a Class 47 and the leading axle of the first wagon was close enough to set them off. (Class 56s had a different design of bogie and the space between the relevant axles was far enough apart that the sensors weren't triggered). This meant the weighbridge was weighing 1/6th of a class 47 and half a loaded HAA - about 42 tons - as an extra wagon.

Why did all this matter? Well, getting back on topic, the CEGB paid the NCB for the coal that was delivered, and the records of what was loaded at the mine did not tally with what was delivered - you might expect to lose a lttle bit on the way, as coal dust would blow off the top of the open wagons, but these errors all showed the trains arriving with more coal, and sometimes even more wagons, than they set out with!

 

[Route115?]

You can just about work out revenue per train (allocating Eurail passes and the like could be fun). You can with some accounting jiggery pokery work out marginal costs - do you need additional crew, stock etc. This will give you the maximum contribution per train. However, you have to be careful. Off-peak services on Avanto WC may have low revenue but of the crew would otherwise be travelling on the cushions & the stock would be in the siding the marginal cost is very low. This gives contribution per train which is similar to gross profit. Many years ago (BR days) I heard that the InterCity sector were considering this. I don't know if it ever came about.

I would imagine that a peak Anglo-Scottish service would have the highest revenue per train.

 

[PLY2AYS]

Most likely an Avanti or LNER service on a strike day. Journey so short it doesn’t leave the depot.
Most profitable, depending on how much a TOC invoices the Government for, for loss on revenue.
Would imagine it’ll be a short, peak time commuter train though, Braintree Town to Liverpool Street, or something of similar route length.

 

[Adwy]

That does now make me wonder which might be the least profitable?

TfW’s Wrexham-Bidston (Borderlands Line) service might be a start. The lack of Revenue Protection or, indeed, much apparent onboard presence appears to have introduced a different form if “ticketless” travel.

 

[BlueLeanie]

It's very complicated...

It wouldn't surprise me if Heathrow Express barely breaks even after Heathrow charges itself track access charges.

Start with the busiest services with the lowest leasing costs and track access charges.

So I'd probably guess Gerrard's Cross to. Marylebone?

Or for 2023, didn't the Jacobite make a £1M+ profit? Sweat those old Mk1s

 

[Llandudno]

That does now make me wonder which might be the least profitable?

TfW’s Wrexham-Bidston (Borderlands Line) service might be a start. The lack of Revenue Protection or, indeed, much apparent onboard presence appears to have introduced a different form if “ticketless” travel.

Or the very poor reliability (that’s being kind!) of the Class 230 units which are the biggest deterrent to would be passengers actually using the line….!

 

[Bald Rick]

this is a very interesting thread, because it has got people thinking what makes a train profitable, albeit mostly on the revneue side rather than costs.

First up, exclude freight. The competitive market for freight has done great things for prices in the market, but not for freight company profitability which is, to be blunt, appalling.

Passenger wise, what makes a service profitable?

Obviously it needs high revenue, but then there’s lots of services out there with high revenue, either through carrying lots of passengers, or charging high fares, and ideally both.

However a profitable service also needs low costs. Accurately measuring costs on the railway has always been notoriously tricky, mostly because of high fixed costs which need apportioning. How do you do this? Per train? per train mile? per vehicle mile? per vehicle hour? There’s various options, but infrastructure costs are, effectively, apportioned through track access charges. Then variable costs - some can be apportioned directly, ie staff costs on board and fuel. Some can’t, easily, such as station staff or fleet maintenance.

Put all that together and I suggest you are looking for services that have :

1) high revenue per passenger
2) high numbers of passengers on board
3) low on board costs, ideally DOO and no catering (as this loses money everywhere)
4) high average speeds, meaning high revenue per hour of rolling stock utilisation
5) electric traction for lower maintenance and ‘fuel‘ costs

As others have said, there’s broadly two categories of service that will fit this:

1) Long distance high speed services that operate at capacity at peak time. Avanti from Manchester or the faster LNER services from Edinburgh are likely candidates. The high peak fares will offset the on board staffing levels. Although the costs of the LNER fleet will sorely test the debit side of the ledger. If the 1700 off the Cross is LNER’s most profitable now, it will be less profitable than it was 20 years ago when I was a regular on it, as there’s less business travel now, and it costs more to provide. I’d suggest the 0735 off Piccadilly is favourite.

2) Fast commuter services into London in the morning peak from the outer suburbs that are 12 car and crush loaded on arrival, with limited stops. Usual suspects on the Brighton line will beat those on the SWML as the latter tend to come from distance, only really fill up later in the journey, and have two staff on board. Honorable mention for Thameslink on the MML, with several services in the morning peak delivering upwards of 1500 passengers, most of who have paid some of the highest per mile (and per minute) peak fare prices into the capital, for the price of a driver and some relatively low per mile fleet and infrastructure costs. However, the services all go on to Sussex, and are somewhat emptier. Then there’s the Cambridge fliers, albeit the peak services all start at Kings Lynn, and call at more intermediate stations to fill up. I suspect the 0706 or 0736 from Brighton will have this one.

But then we come to the Heathrow express, if fully loaded. I don’t know if they ever are, nor what the access charges are on the Heathrow branch. But (say) 800 people paying a minimum of £15 one way for a 21 minute journey at most is going to take some beating.


All in, I reckon a regularly busy HEX will have it.

 

[deltic]

All in, I reckon a regularly busy HEX will have it.

HEX has been stuffed by the Elizabeth line and loadings are well down compared to pre-COVID

 

[Sealink]

My mind was wandering the other day whilst on a train and this thought popped into my head.

Which individual train journey makes the most profit? Not the most lucrative, but profitable?

I would imagine there are a few variables such as staff costs, energy costs, ticket costs, timings, loadings, capacity, track access etc?

Is it even quantifiable?

Anyway, it made the journey go quicker!

That's a great question!

Without researching I assume it is Heathrow Express, incredibly expensive but somehow always appears at the best value service in surveys

 

[PGAT]

What about the Elizabeth Line itself? Surely some of its shorter journeys like Paddington to Abbey Wood in the peak would be up there

 

[Bald Rick]

What about the Elizabeth Line itself? Surely some of its shorter journeys like Paddington to Abbey Wood in the peak would be up there

Unlikely. The fares involved are rather low.

 

[BlueLeanie]

But then we come to the Heathrow express, if fully loaded. I don’t know if they ever are, nor what the access charges are on the Heathrow branch. But (say) 800 people paying a minimum of £15 one way for a 21 minute journey at most is going to take some beating.

Rail regulation

Blank

www.heathrow.com

 

[telstarbox]

Unlikely. The fares involved are rather low.

To put it into context, if you travelled from Stratford to Ealing Broadway in 2020 you'd most likely use the slow Central line. Now you'd use the Elizabeth line (which has higher costs) and save half the time but you're not paying a premium for it.

 

[whoosh]

I read a few years back cost per mile the Heathrow express was the most expensive journey in the world

Business class was more expensive per mile than Concorde!

 

[GordonT]

Fast commuter services into London in the morning peak from the outer suburbs that are 12 car and crush loaded on arrival, with limited stops. Usual suspects on the Brighton line will beat those on the SWML as the latter tend to come from distance, only really fill up later in the journey, and have two staff on board. Honorable mention for Thameslink on the MML, with several services in the morning peak delivering upwards of 1500 passengers, most of who have paid some of the highest per mile (and per minute) peak fare prices into the capital, for the price of a driver and some relatively low per mile fleet and infrastructure costs. However, the services all go on to Sussex, and are somewhat emptier. Then there’s the Cambridge fliers, albeit the peak services all start at Kings Lynn, and call at more intermediate stations to fill up. I suspect the 0706 or 0736 from Brighton will have this one.

Your full post gave a very insightful summary of the factors relevant to the profitability of services. Commuter operations which are heavily peaked can sometimes presumably carry a significant cost burden of staff and fleet resources which are not productively utilised outwith the peaks. I suppose therefore situations could arise where some crush loaded journeys should be thumped with quite a high cost attribution in situations where the unit(s) forming a specific inbound morning peak and outbound evening peak journey would not otherwise be required if these journeys did not exist.

 

[Mgameing123]

I would think the same applies the Heathrow option with Crossrail.

That no additional profit because its for the track access fee for Heathrow.

 

[387masterrace]

All in, I reckon a regularly busy HEX will have it.

The issue with this is that 'fully loaded' and 'Heathrow Express' don't fit in the same sentence.

Now the Standsted express on the other hand...

 

[renegademaster]

Could it be a railtour? They are normally full, 10 coaches long and the tickets are very pricey, especially considering the first and dining passengers. Very staff intensive. Maybe one of those Shortish Pullman services from Victoria

 

[gingertom]

The Edinburgh to Glasgow route is highly profitable, indeed the only ScotRail route to make a profit.

indeed, because there is a commuter flow in both directions.

 

[317 forever]

That does now make me wonder which might be the least profitable?

TfW’s Wrexham-Bidston (Borderlands Line) service might be a start. The lack of Revenue Protection or, indeed, much apparent onboard presence appears to have introduced a different form if “ticketless” travel.

When I rode from Shotton to Upton last year (on Eurovision day - I'll let you draw your own conclusions ) the guard did inspect our tickets.