Who will be our next Prime Minister? - Rishi Sunak!

[WatcherZero]

This meme really cracked me up.

Ehh, no, not really. They can't dissolve Parliament without the advice of the Prime Minister, and in any case the circumstance you describe is really rather niche situation. It certainly isn't the case at the moment because the government has an unquestionably significant majority and there's been no actual impediment to the passage of legislation so far.

They failed to pass their mini budget, failing to pass a budget is the textbook definition.

 

[TheEdge]

This meme really cracked me up.

I never thought I'd such an outstanding Pacific Rim x British Politics meme but 2022 continues to deliver.

 

[DerekC]

He (Sunak) will be next PM in 7 days or maybe come 2PM monday afternoon. Its clear no one else is going to get 100 supporters - what people say about Boris and what they do in private will be something different - the rest of the so called contenders are damaged goods from the Truss disaster. Pretty well six months wasted but he will likely pull back from the Hunt madness as well and get a more balanced approach. Labour won't be happy with this and were foolish to assist in Truss's downfall Hunt was going to do the hard miles and give Labour possibly a better economic situation to work from than what we will see now.

I hope you are right, but I fear Johnson might scrape past the 100 and get himself on the members' ballot. Then who knows? The odds (according to Oddschecker) currently are:

Sunak 6:4 on
Johnson 15:8
Mordaunt 14:1

PS - I am not sure Labour did much to assist Truss's downfall. Just like Johnson, it was a DIY job!

 

[Kite159]

I suspect there are some within the party hoping Sunak is the only one who gets over 100+ MPs behind him to avoid the hassle of trying to do a secure online vote for the party members within the week.

Still neither are appealing

 

[Yew]

I suspect there are some within the party hoping Sunak is the only one who gets over 100+ MPs behind him to avoid the hassle of trying to do a secure online vote for the party members within the week.

Still neither are appealing

I do wonder if they actually have the capability to do that in a secure way.

 

[nw1]

Why on Earth would Putin do that? Do you imagine that Putin is somehow grateful to Boris for providing so many weapons and so much support to Ukraine and thereby helping to test the Russian army to (literal) destruction?

Perhaps, because a Johnson win would lead to a deepening of the crisis (why have we wasted 6 months on futile leadership contests only to have the same man back?), and keep the UK in a state of chaos. That's what Putin wants.

What we won't get out of a Johnson win is a strong Johnson leadership. Putin might fear that, to be fair, but we aren't going to get that.

 

[Mcr Warrior]

Backing Boris Johnson's candidature (assuming there is to be one) would seem to be the last throw of the dice by a number of self-serving Conservative Party MPs in marginal constituencies who are almost certainly going to be swept away at the next General Election.

 

[nw1]

He will be next PM in 7 days or maybe come 2PM monday afternoon. Its clear no one else is going to get 100 supporters - what people say about Boris and what they do in private will be something different - the rest of the so called contenders are damaged goods from the Truss disaster. Pretty well six months wasted but he will likely pull back from the Hunt madness as well and get a more balanced approach. Labour won't be happy with this and were foolish to assist in Truss's downfall Hunt was going to do the hard miles and give Labour possibly a better economic situation to work from than what we will see now.

I don't think any of the candidates, except perhaps Mordaunt, will prevent Labour gaining power in the next election.

Johnson is by far the most ridiculous option, but Sunak will I suspect be seen as too rich and privileged in the critical Red Wall seats, and whoever wins will have to see us through this coming winter. With Sunak I don't expect a huge Labour majority of the sort that would have happened with Truss, but nonetheless I would expect a reasonable Labour majority of perhaps 20 or so with the Tories on 30% and Labour on 40%. Essentially, Milton Keynes will flip but Tatton (!) won't.

If the result is anything other than a Labour win it really does seem we are a nation of forelock-tuggers who is prepared to forgive the Tory Party even major indiscretions.

I am surprised at the lack of support for Mordaunt though compared to the other two. Perhaps MPs are thinking long-term, they see her as a future PM in a few years and don't want to waste her on the likely short term of Truss' successor.

 

[Gloster]

The deadline for nominations is 14.00 Monday. I can see a lot of MPs taking soundings in their constituencies, i.e talking to the constituency committee and activists, over the weekend. Such groups are more likely to be pro-Johnson than the average voter (or even party member) and are quite capable of saying, “Support Johnson, or else...” The prospect of deselection may cause enough of them to nominate Johnson and if he gets on the members’ ballot, I think he will win.

 

[najaB]

I do wonder if they actually have the capability to do that in a secure way.

What, secure online voting? Yes. Though they don't have nearly enough time to do it properly.

 

[nw1]

I'm not as against Boris as many are - he got voted in on a manifesto of concluding Brexit - and he did that.

If that's treated as a success of course. Given that Brexit is all about restrictions on individual freedom, increased trade bureaucracy, and bad relations with our neighbours, some would say otherwise.

In this instance though, the issue with the possibility of Boris this time is primarily that he's been voted out by his party once, and we'll have wasted 6 months on precisely nothing.

Of course part of me actually wants Boris to win, I have to admit - as if he did, I think he'd have to call a general election immediately otherwise he simply would not be accepted.

 

[SynthD]

A few MPs have publicly said they'd leave the party if Johnson is chosen. Some have privately said they would defect to Labour. It sounds like some are deciding between losing their jobs by not backing Johnson and being deselected locally, or backing him and losing at the election. I hope the opposition parties make use of these choices

I believe we need full disaster at full speed. Someone incompetent at being Johnson did not do the job. Sunak and Mordaunt are capable of doing a not-bad job, on the level of Cameron before the referendum. But they won't, because the wrong people are assessing their work. Cameron had Labour before him, so even with the global recession, there was at least some order in the finances.

 

[Busaholic]

The deadline for nominations is 14.00 Monday. I can see a lot of MPs taking soundings in their constituencies, i.e talking to the constituency committee and activists, over the weekend. Such groups are more likely to be pro-Johnson than the average voter (or even party member) and are quite capable of saying, “Support Johnson, or else...” The prospect of deselection may cause enough of them to nominate Johnson and if he gets on the members’ ballot, I think he will win.

I'd love to disagree with your last sentence, but I honestly can't. What prospect is there that so many who believed Truss would make a better leader than Sunak a mere month or two ago have suddenly made touch with reality, or that the Johnson groupies, male or female, will ever believe their hero is answerable to anyone or anything other than his base instincts? The comparison with the Republican Party has to be made, the principal difference being that approximately half of the British population would not still be considering voting Conservative if we were mercifully granted the chance to vote before our country gets downgraded by Moody to total basket case.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Any UK PM can be expected to continue to support Ukraine, so Putin isn’t going to care (much) who holds the position on that account. But Putin has a wider aim of causing political disruption throughout Europe, with the UK being a particular favourite, and Johnson is by far the most likely of the candidates to behave in a way that ends up causing such.

Yes and no. I think you are correct that a Johnson victory is likely to result in some further political instability (although that could be short lived if it causes some Tory MPs to defect/vote for an early general election). And you're probably correct that Russia would be happy for there to be more instability in any Western country.

BUT, that's not the same thing as what you said, which was 'V.Putin will be doing his best to provide votes for him if there is an on-line ballot.' Unless you have some specific evidence that Putin will be trying to provide votes for Boris Johnson, then making that claim - and thereby implicitly linking Putin and Johnson - amounts to an evidence-free smear.

I'm sure you would (rightly) be horrified and be complaining big-time if Boris Johnson or Conservatives tried to smear Labour politicians in that kind of way (And to be fair, they arguably have done on occasions). Is it really any different if you are smearing right-wing politicians?

 

[BrianW]

If that's treated as a success of course. Given that Brexit is all about restrictions on individual freedom, increased trade bureaucracy, and bad relations with our neighbours, some would say otherwise.

In this instance though, the issue with the possibility of Boris this time is primarily that he's been voted out by his party once, and we'll have wasted 6 months on precisely nothing.

Of course part of me actually wants Boris to win, I have to admit - as if he did, I think he'd have to call a general election immediately otherwise he simply would not be accepted.

Churchill- The Wilderness Years: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winston_Churchill's_"Wilderness"_years,_1929–1939

Johnson- The Wilderness Days?

 

[najaB]

BUT, that's not the same thing as what you said, which was 'V.Putin will be doing his best to provide votes for him if there is an on-line ballot.' Unless you have some specific evidence that Putin will be trying to provide votes for Boris Johnson, then making that claim - and thereby implicitly linking Putin and Johnson - amounts to an evidence-free smear.

I think you are making a link that isn't there. Putin can support Johnson without Johnson approving of or even being aware of it.

 

[Gloster]

BUT, that's not the same thing as what you said, which was 'V.Putin will be doing his best to provide votes for him if there is an on-line ballot.' Unless you have some specific evidence that Putin will be trying to provide votes for Boris Johnson, then making that claim - and thereby implicitly linking Putin and Johnson - amounts to an evidence-free smear.

There are strong suspicions that Russia is interfering with elections using the Internet. If this election goes to an on-line vote, I would not be in the slightest bit surprised if Russia makes efforts to twist the voting in Johnson’s favour. This is particular possible when, as in this case, the voting is set up in a hurry. No, I do not have any specific evidence, but by its nature such evidence is unlikely to exist outside of Russia. It is a statement of a reasonable deduction about possible actions by Putin: at no time did I suggest that Johnson was in any way involved or complicit.

 

[Drogba11CFC]

That's turned out to be a great success. Well done Bojo


Oh yes...the facts. One thing that the Conservative government is renowned for.


It's increasingly depressing to live in a country of Mensa dodgers.

This is the exact same attitude that led to Brexit; the sort of sanctimonious smugness that was so prevalent among the maskivists.

 

[nw1]

BUT, that's not the same thing as what you said, which was 'V.Putin will be doing his best to provide votes for him if there is an on-line ballot.' Unless you have some specific evidence that Putin will be trying to provide votes for Boris Johnson, then making that claim - and thereby implicitly linking Putin and Johnson - amounts to an evidence-free smear.

Nobody is suggesting that Johnson, or his supporters, would be complicit in something like this. The suggestion is that Putin, and the Russian state apparatus, might attempt to influence the election in this way, in an attempt to destabilise the UK. So the only person that's being smeared, and rightly so, is Putin.

Is it really any different if you are smearing right-wing politicians?

The only right-wing politician being smeared here is V. Putin.

To give an "opposite" example: last night the member for West Dorset was arguing against a general election, claiming that it might be influenced by Russia. Maybe, maybe not. But I didn't take that to be a smear on Labour. Rather, I just saw the member for West Dorset as a gutless, pathetic coward who is frightened of losing his seat.

This is the exact same attitude that led to Brexit; the sort of sanctimonious smugness that was so prevalent among the maskivists.

Poor choice of words perhaps, but it would be incredibly frustrating if the Tories won again even after all this.

Some of us are getting a bit alarmed at the seeming domination of the Conservative Party in UK politics and that some appear to forgive them for just about anything. Personally, if anyone is sanctimonious and smug, it's not remainers who just wished to preserve rights and freedom, but rather, your average Oxford-educated Tory MP.

 

[yorksrob]

If that's treated as a success of course. Given that Brexit is all about restrictions on individual freedom, increased trade bureaucracy, and bad relations with our neighbours, some would say otherwise.

In this instance though, the issue with the possibility of Boris this time is primarily that he's been voted out by his party once, and we'll have wasted 6 months on precisely nothing.

Of course part of me actually wants Boris to win, I have to admit - as if he did, I think he'd have to call a general election immediately otherwise he simply would not be accepted.

It's my settled opinion that this government has lost its legitimacy/mandate completely, whoever leads it.

 

[XAM2175]

They failed to pass their mini budget, failing to pass a budget is the textbook definition.

It wasn't ever the subject of a formal division, though. Only the stamp duty changes were actually put to Parliament, and that was in the form of a Ways and Means motion under the Provisional Collection of Taxes Act 1968 which passed on voice vote immediately after the Chancellor's statement.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

It's my settled opinion that this government has lost its legitimacy/mandate completely, whoever leads it.

Morally it has legally it hasn't.

They will use the latter as this is operation save as many Tory MPs as possible in 2 years time.

Sunak will get them back on track and Labours lead will be back in the teens by Xmas as the majority of Torys can never bring themselves to vote Labour when it really comes to it.

MPs won't vote BoJo and the men in grey suits won't allow it. Its a secret ballot so constituency associations can tell their MP what they want but what they do at the ballot box is between them and their conscious.

 

[DelW]

If the Conservative party inflicts another dose of Johnson on the country, they really have lost their collective marbles. Have they not realised that most people outside their bubble despise and are disgusted by Johnson? - for his lies, his cheating, his rule- and law-breaking, his cronyism verging on corruption, his arrogance and boastfulness. And above all, that he squandered the public mandate from 2019 and dumped us into the current crisis.

The "red-wall" MPs will be gone at the next election anyway. Lots of non-Conservatives held their noses and voted Tory in 2019, either out of doubts about Corbyn, or to get Brexit out of the way, for better or worse (and we know how well that went!). Neither of those reasons will be repeated, so much of that vote will be gone again. But with another year or two of Johnson's misgovernment and misbehaviour, even usually safe seats are likely to go Lib Dem, or even Green or Labour.

 

[AlterEgo]

Can't King Charles demand an election? He must be able to see what a mess his country is in and there is going to be no fix until people get their say. Or is he going to sit watching peoples lives forever get ruined because of cruel government ideology? The UK is now a laughing stock to other countries he is monarch to. He must act and the Tories should admit they're useless and quit while they're down.

The King constitutionally acts only on ministerial advice and does not have a mandate to unilaterally dismiss parliament.

 

[philosopher]

A few MPs have publicly said they'd leave the party if Johnson is chosen. Some have privately said they would defect to Labour. It sounds like some are deciding between losing their jobs by not backing Johnson and being deselected locally, or backing him and losing at the election. I hope the opposition parties make use of these choices

I believe we need full disaster at full speed. Someone incompetent at being Johnson did not do the job. Sunak and Mordaunt are capable of doing a not-bad job, on the level of Cameron before the referendum. But they won't, because the wrong people are assessing their work. Cameron had Labour before him, so even with the global recession, there was at least some order in the finances.

If Boris wins, I am hoping enough Tory MPs defect that the Tories no longer have a majority and a general election is called when the Tories subsequently lose a vote of no confidence.

However about 35 or so Tory MPs would need to defect for this to happen, so I suspect it is very much wishful thinking.

 

[GS250]

This is the exact same attitude that led to Brexit; the sort of sanctimonious smugness that was so prevalent among the maskivists.

Correct. You would have thought there would have been a learning of lessons here. Once you start labelling sections of the electorate in a condescending manner, be prepared for them to vote against your ideology.

As far as the candidates go:

Sunak: Probably the safest choice as far as the present situation goes. He's cool, measured and well spoken. Probably what the country needs until the next election. However electability is pretty low even if the Tories were in position of reasonable strength. Will be seen as yet another ultra privileged banker type and will not be liked by the former red wall. Is a brexiteer but no longer sure how relevant that is.

Boris: Easily the most volatile choice for the party. There would be no end of cross party conflict whether they liked it or not. For the country, not a good thing. If they could somehow swallow their differences he would still stand a fair chance of stopping a labour win of sorts. When it comes to election time...he's the master of somehow getting votes.

Mourdant: Has proven she's a lethal Labour basher and has a ministerial aura about her. Loved by the membership too. However the fact Truss managed to do a hatchet job on her doesn't really bode well. Has potential...lots of it but maybe a tad early.

 

[WatcherZero]

Public approval ratings for the three contenders, Sunak +3, Mordaunt -9, Boris -22. Mordaunt has more 'dont knows' than either positive or negatives suggesting shes failed to form a first impression with the majority of voters.

 

[GS250]

My predictions are for Sunak to become PM. Will stabilise the economy of which will claw back some traditional middle class voters. However a stable economy on paper doesn't equate to ordinary people being 'in pocket' especially with his tax plans. He'll lose the election and Mordaunt will become leader.

Britain needs stability and he is the right man for that job.

 

[Busaholic]

Boris Johnson's Resignation Honours List (how British is that concept? ) by all accounts puts 8 Conservative MPs into the House of Lords, so that's 8 by-elections! In the meantime, in our wonderful democratic, incorruptible system that's 8 guaranteed votes for him when he stirs himself to announce his candidature. Then, after they lose the majority of those by-elections and those caused by other Tory MP resignations, he stands down again and is eligible for another doleing out of the baubles.

 

[XAM2175]

They will use the latter as this is operation save as many Tory MPs as possible in 2 years time.

Sunak will get them back on track and Labours lead will be back in the teens by Xmas as the majority of Torys can never bring themselves to vote Labour when it really comes to it.

I've come across this rather prescient observation from 2011:

When a regime has been in power too long, when it has fatally exhausted the patience of the people, and when oblivion finally beckons – I am afraid that across the world you can rely on the leaders of that regime to act solely in the interests of self-preservation, and not in the interests of the electorate.

Rather ironically it's from the pen of one Boris Johnson:

AV was a last gasp from Gordon Brown's bunker – and it's a gigantic fraud

I hope I will be forgiven if I indulge in a few tasteless comparisons between the crazed and increasingly blood-soaked tyrant Muammar al-Gaddafi and former UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown.

www.telegraph.co.uk