Will some services start running Tuesday to Thursday only (e.g. MFSX) due to changed commuting patterns?

[edwin_m]

With the reduction in commuting apparently being most severe on Monday and Fridays, do we expect that some trains will start to be run on Tuesdays to Thursdays only? Are there any such already operating? (I assume not, hence this is posted in Speculative)

 

[The Planner]

Based on revenue numbers, I would suggest no on the main lines.

 

[Bald Rick]

Unlikely, IMO.

 

[Bletchleyite]

With the reduction in commuting apparently being most severe on Monday and Fridays, do we expect that some trains will start to be run on Tuesdays to Thursdays only? Are there any such already operating? (I assume not, hence this is posted in Speculative)

Fridays have been quiet for years and it's never bothered them before.

 

[Dr Day]

Interesting suggestion. The industry has tended to ‘fix’ the supply side and generally keep operations relatively consistent whether by season, day of week or time of day but ‘vary’ and manage the demand side by differential hence complex fares.

As we are speculating, would developing more flexible demand based timetables around a simpler fares structure be worth the trade off? Agree would be horrendous with today’s software, processes and cost drivers but should the industry be at least trying to ‘put the customer first’ with more trains closer to when customers want them even if that means say every 30 minutes some hours and 20 in other hours, or as the OP suggests fewer on Mondays and Friday mornings? Could, say, the same seat miles operated per week be distributed differently to better match demand less constrained by fares? Completely appreciate it wouldn’t be easy particularly across the network with many key junctions optimised around capacity but should it be a longer term aspiration and something that develops from GBR?

Either way would be an interesting academic research project!

 

[Bletchleyite]

It's easy enough to do - you do what is planned for the south WCML and have an all day base clockface timetable and add peak extras where they are needed, which they may be on TWT but not MF. Peak extras on a Saturday for instance are likely to be 2200-2359 ish from the big city. Or where lengths aren't maxed out you do what Merseyrail does and run the same service near enough all the time and extend trains when it'll be busy.

 

[306024]

It's easy enough to do - you do what is planned for the south WCML and have an all day base clockface timetable and add peak extras where they are needed, which they may be on TWT but not MF. Peak extras on a Saturday for instance are likely to be 2200-2359 ish from the big city. Or where lengths aren't maxed out you do what Merseyrail does and run the same service near enough all the time and extend trains when it'll be busy.

“It’s easy enough to do“ has to be one of the best understatements I’ve read on here.

In principle yes I’d agree, huge fan of standard hour timetables where they are appropriate. But take for example the GEML, or Southeastern, which from a commuter perspective are far more difficult to plan than the WCML simply because of the number of passengers. Just fitting in peak additionals may not necessarily path correctly, or meet the passenger demand. Some trains that are perfectly fine off peak would be overcrowded in the peak, so you have to adjust the calls of those. Before you know it your standard hour in the peak isn’t so standard.

And that is before the platform working, unit diagrams and crew diagrams are taken into account.

Now none of this is insurmountable with the appropriate number of skilled planners and the time to do it. Unfortunately both are in short supply.

 

[87015]

Euston is a terrible example anyway as WCML trains are totally misloaded and will only get worse in December with the proposed changes making the slightly slower alternative option a lot slower and therefore making more people aim for the prime trains...

 

[Bletchleyite]

Euston is a terrible example anyway as WCML trains are totally misloaded and will only get worse in December with the proposed changes making the slightly slower alternative option a lot slower and therefore making more people aim for the prime trains...

I haven't seen the proposed train lengths, but if the "prime" trains are all 12-car south of Northampton I think it will likely be absolutely fine. Also note that Avanti are changing which of their trains call at MKC to provide a more evenly spread service (at present southbound even with a full service it may as well be hourly as they're all crammed into about a 12 minute period) so the "prime trains" will be relieved slightly by people using Avanti instead which is presently very unattractive.

One thing I think they should do, though, is potentially do more with the peak extras. It is planned to be 2 more Trings, which is fine in itself, but doesn't add capacity to Leighton, Bletchley, MKC, Wolverton or Northampton. So my view would be that the "peak extra" pattern should follow the early-2000s post VHF peak approach which was roughly to extend the xx06/xx36 Tring stoppers to MKC, the xx24/xx54 MKC semifasts to Northampton and to add 2 further Tring stoppers at xx10/xx40. If there is an overcrowding problem on the fasts I think they will end up doing that or part of it anyway - it was well tested and apart from a few trains which really needed to be 12 rather than 8-car (but were constrained by the length of P9/10) it worked.

(One of the oddest aspects of the WCML peak timetable pre-COVID was what happened to that 1824, which was one of the problem trains, particularly when it was the evening peak semifast Crewe after Northampton. I'd for years thought it should be 12-car, but in the end what they did was split it in half, running an 1820 and an 1829 which basically skip stopped with almost no stops in common - I forget what they were overall but the 1829 did Bletchley but not the 1820, one did Apsley and the other Kings Langley etc - in essence fixing the issue by running a 16-car train in that path but in two bits)

In principle yes I’d agree, huge fan of standard hour timetables where they are appropriate. But take for example the GEML, or Southeastern, which from a commuter perspective are far more difficult to plan than the WCML simply because of the number of passengers

But isn't that number of passengers considerably reduced, as GE and SE are mostly commuter operations? That number of passengers is why the WCML lost its pattern as I described above, and is similarly why it'll now work to put it back.

In essence we're not talking about complex patterns, we're just talking about not running some or all of the peak extras on Mon/Fri - in essence, running a Saturday timetable.

 

[306024]

But isn't that number of passengers considerably reduced, as GE and SE are mostly commuter operations? That number of passengers is why the WCML lost its pattern as I described above, and is similarly why it'll now work to put it back.

In essence we're not talking about complex patterns, we're just talking about not running some or all of the peak extras on Mon/Fri - in essence, running a Saturday timetable.

It is, but possibly not to the degree needed to make it as simple as it sounds. In terms of absolute numbers the WCML commuter base doesn’t compare.

I do agree it’s a sound principle to follow, and with Sunday ever more popular perhaps extend the principle there where demand and engineering access allows.

And bingo you have a 7 day railway. (A phrase that may cause amusement to those in the industry with good memories).

The biggest snag then is with fewer Monday to Friday trains you proportionally increase the amount of weekend working required, which inevitably would be unpopular, another understatement.

 

[Bald Rick]

It’s easy enough to do“ has to be one of the best understatements I’ve read on here.

Seconded!

But isn't that number of passengers considerably reduced, as GE and SE are mostly commuter operations?

At the risk of riling @306024, whilst the GE is tricky to timetable, Southeastern is harder still, because of the interaction between the intense Metro services from (roughly) inside the M25, and the outer suburban services from outside the M25. And the three termini, of which the Charing Cross / Cannon St interaction is a real knot, because of the ‘need’ to provide direct services from (almost) everywhere to both, and the different peak times for the two. I imagine the post Covid peak commuter loss has been different between the two as well.

The LNR peak into Euston, by comparison, is a doddle (at risk of riling my old chums who wrote the new TT!)

 

[306024]

That doesn’t rile me at all Quite agree, I’ve always said if you can timetable Southeastern you can timetable anywhere! The bigger challenge on the GE was always matching capacity to demand (a problem Covid may have solved for the foreseeable) by adjusting station calls, rather than just the pure timetabling.

 

[telstarbox]

Did BR era Southeastern use a 66 minute repeating pattern to fit everything in?

 

[Snow1964]

“It’s easy enough to do“ has to be one of the best understatements I’ve read on here.

I don’t think it that far fetched, if there is already a Saturday timetable that exists and works, I don’t see why it couldn’t be operated both Friday and Saturday

There is a transition Friday night, that could be Thursday night instead. It’s not like you are trying to create a new timetable from scratch doing this. But I would agree inventing a new timetable for one day a week is unlikely.

Some stock allocations, and staff rosters would need tweaking, but let’s be honest they are always being fiddled with, not set in stone for next 12 months, so not a doddle already.

 

[Bald Rick]

There is a transition Friday night, that could be Thursday night instead. It’s not like you are trying to create a new timetable from scratch doing this. But I would agree inventing a new timetable for one day a week is unlikely.

But there would be a new transition from an FSO timetable (Friday) into an FSO timetable (Saturday) to create.

 

[306024]

I don’t think it that far fetched, if there is already a Saturday timetable that exists and works, I don’t see why it couldn’t be operated both Friday and Saturday.

Assuming a Saturday service does in fact provide sufficient capacity for what is admittedly a reduced Friday commuter demand. It isn't far fetched, but you need planning resource and time to achieve it. There are a few planners on here, but I wonder how many others really understand everything that is involved.

 

[Fyldeboy]

Just to make myself hugely popular with railstaff, how about a Tu/W/Th timetable and a Fri - Mon 4 day timetable, similar to current Saturdays? Only 2 transitions a week and we know that leisure traffic is making many Sunday services need a lift.

 

[alistairlees]

The main thing should be 12 car trains on three days a week (tue to thurs) and eight car trains on Monday and Friday (at least in southeastern land). The commuting peak has moved later too, at least for the outers, with reduced traffic to Cannon Street.

I think though that we really need to see what happens from September to December at least, before making any significant decisions.

 

[Esker-pades]

The LNR peak into Euston, by comparison, is a doddle (at risk of riling my old chums who wrote the new TT!)

doddle my <redacted>

Just to make myself hugely popular with railstaff, how about a Tu/W/Th timetable and a Fri - Mon 4 day timetable, similar to current Saturdays? Only 2 transitions a week and we know that leisure traffic is making many Sunday services need a lift.

The classic.....where would we stick the engineering access?

 

[43074]

The main thing should be 12 car trains on three days a week (tue to thurs) and eight car trains on Monday and Friday (at least in southeastern land). The commuting peak has moved later too, at least for the outers, with reduced traffic to Cannon Street.

That would be a safe bet if you ask me, and not only on SE.

 

[mmh]

Fridays have been quiet for years and it's never bothered them before.

The North Wales Coast and many other places beg to differ. Yeah, fewer people will be travelling from/to e.g. Milton Keynes to London, but a Friday afternoon from Euston to elsewhere, in August? Not going to be quiet.

 

[Alfie1014]

Did BR era Southeastern use a 66 minute repeating pattern to fit everything in?

Certainly did in the 1980/90s the extra 2 mins per every 20 mins was more to provide a breathing space, though the corridor through London Bridge at that time was technically not compliant with rules of the plan but it was the only way to move the volume especially after the transition from slam door stock to sliding where the dwell times were longer and passengers could no longer self discharge before trains had come to a stop!

 

[Bletchleyite]

The North Wales Coast and many other places beg to differ. Yeah, fewer people will be travelling from/to e.g. Milton Keynes to London, but a Friday afternoon from Euston to elsewhere, in August? Not going to be quiet.

InterCity's peak (i.e. busiest time, not related to the use of high priced tickets to clout business travellers) is Friday evening and Sunday afternoon, with a secondary one on Monday mornings. But this is mostly about commuter operations, isn't it?

 

[Magdalia]

Certainly did in the 1980/90s the extra 2 mins per every 20 mins was more to provide a breathing space, though the corridor through London Bridge at that time was technically not compliant with rules of the plan but it was the only way to move the volume especially after the transition from slam door stock to sliding where the dwell times were longer and passengers could no longer self discharge before trains had come to a stop!

For a while the Lea Valley side of Liverpool Street operated on a 24 minute cycle.

 

[Bald Rick]

Just to make myself hugely popular with railstaff, how about a Tu/W/Th timetable and a Fri - Mon 4 day timetable, similar to current Saturdays?

A reminder - Friday is the busiest day of the week, albeit the Morning peak is the quietest of Monday - Friday.

Also, there is very, very little demand early on Sundays. and before anyone says “how do you know, as there’s no trains“, I invite you to check motorway traffic flow on an early Sunday morning compared to a Saturday, or domestic air routes on an early Sunday morning somlared to a Saturday, etc.

Id also quite like to be in the room when you propose early Sunday morning starts to ASLEF.

The main thing should be 12 car trains on three days a week (tue to thurs) and eight car trains on Monday and Friday (at least in southeastern land). The commuting peak has moved later too, at least for the outers, with reduced traffic to Cannon Street.

but that saves, essentially, peanuts, and does not help with the cost efficiencies the railway has to make to respond to the different demand patterns.

 

[dk1]

Doubt it.

 

[nw1]

Fridays have been quiet for years and it's never bothered them before.

It could be an opportunity for re-deployment though. e.g. out of Waterloo, if an 18xx peak extra to say Haslemere (out of Clapham Yard, so not formed off a specific incoming passenger service) is not needed on a Friday, re-deploy it as a 16xx "weekend away" special to Dorset.

Granted it would likely be 450s rather than the 444s typical on that route, but it would be no different to the use of VEPs on Saturday day-out crowd-busters in the 1980s.

 

[mike57]

I think most areas need a review of service provision against use. I know that the thought is to 'wait and see where thing settle' but I would have thought some targeted changes would make sense now. On our local line its leisure usage that is the major factor. Where I can see problems is with lines where the main usage is leisure travel there is a case for making Sunday service level more like Saturdays, but of course given the current disputes over rest day working thats unlikely.

Go for the 'low hanging fruit' now and adjust services where provision is massively at odds with usage, even if that means making some peak services TuWTh only, and try and beef up leisure aimed services. Really the whole UK network is going to need a review next year, but given the current climate, both in terms of industrial relations and finances it doesn't look hopeful.

Locally Northern have turned an ECS Hull - Scarborough Sunday morning working into a 'Day tripper express', just calling at Bridlington and Filey on the way to Scarborough. It was running with full crew anyway, so hats to Northern for recognising the opportunity. Its now in the timetable as passenger rather than ECS until September.

 

[Bald Rick]

I think most areas need a review of service provision against use.

such Reviews have been underway for some time, and many of the outputs have already been implemented (or will be later this year).