Will the WHO ever declare an end to the Covid-19 pandemic?

[brad465]

In the past pandemics have ended despite the responsible pathogen remaining in circulation/existence, including all flu pandemics and the plagues. In recent history a respiratory virus pandemic appears to last between 1 and 2.5 years; Spanish Flu was just over 2 years, whereas Swine flu only lasted 14 months. The Black Death was around 5 years long, but it can be argued spread took much longer as human transportation capabilities and population densities were much lower back in the 14th century.

Covid seems to be one of the most infectious pandemics in history, with R0 now estimated to be 5-8. What is most different though this time is not only the unheard of levels of restrictions that have been applied to try and control it, but the massive levels of testing and resultant case counting, plus the reliance on vaccinations to try and bring about its end. We also hear a lot about the need to vaccinate the whole world, even though this was never required to end a pandemic in the past, while the constant case counting seems to imply every case is part of the pandemic, even if endemic circulation akin to seasonal flu holds responsibility in places (such as the second wave over winter 2020-21). As a result of all this, I cannot at this point tell what will cause the WHO to declare this pandemic over, as the virus appears to be here to stay, and vaccinating the whole world either won't happen, take too long (especially if resorting to boosters becomes as normal as annual flu jabs) and/or be hard to properly measure. Furthermore, those countries that contained covid early on, like Australia, China and other parts of East Asia, now appear to be showing the fantasy of zero covid and in turn have only managed to delay things, which in turn will delay the whole pandemic's endgame.

 

[MikeWM]

I was thinking about starting a slightly related thread along these lines of 'how - and when - can we get back to normal?'

Even in England, which is currently one of the most 'normal' countries in the West, things are still very far from normal. I think most people expected at the start of the year - if the vaccination program had manged to reach as many of the population as it has - then things would now be *entirely* normal. But of course they are not:

- we still have mass testing
- we still have test and trace, and isolation
- we are still 'encouraged' and 'expected' to wear masks in various situations
- international travel is an absolute disaster
- the Coronavirus Act is still (mostly) on the statute book (at least until September - will it be renewed again?)
- councils still have powers to put conditions on events/premises (currently until late September - will that be renewed?)

and coming up

- we have the threat of mandatory 'vaccine passports' for all sorts of things
- we have the threat of lockdowns and/or restrictions into the winter
- we have an apparent requirement for vaccine 'boosters' (although why, and how often these will be 'needed', seems to be rather unknown)

And looking at Israel, Iceland and some of the states of the USA (eg. Hawaii or California) it seems all too easy to slip back into restrictions, even though we now have wide-spread uptake of the vaccinations. There is an obvious concern that the same will happen here in the next few months.

It's not too bad currently in England, but it is far from 'normal', and it really isn't clear to me now how we can ever get there, given the vaccination program clearly hasn't done what was promised and got us all the way back.

 

[Skimpot flyer]

I think the more pertinent question should be ‘Who will be the first country to declare that now Coronavirus is endemic, it is time to stop behaving as if we are in a perpetual pandemic?’
If every country does the same as they did in early 2020, and copy each other ‘because that’s what they did’, it could be declared as over in a matter of weeks…

 

[big_rig]

Something I have found quite interesting is the question ‘why did the Spanish flu end?’ There seems to be remarkably few pre-2020 strongly held views on this (the post-2020 content is all crapped up with references to masks and whatnot). I get the impression it just went away or people stopped caring as much but nobody can figure out why.

When it comes to global restrictions I think there is a case to be made that on the whole England is the most free nation on earth at the moment (Sweden has closed borders outside the EU). I think that is why so many hysterical people want the ‘experiment’ to fail because our experience at basically getting on with life and not caring a huge deal about it sets a ‘bad’ example.

 

[Ianno87]

I think the more pertinent question should be ‘Who will be the first country to declare that now Coronavirus is endemic, it is time to stop behaving as if we are in a perpetual pandemic?’
If every country does the same as they did in early 2020, and copy each other ‘because that’s what they did’, it could be declared as over in a matter of weeks…

There is an interesting question of "who wants to blink first?"

But as soon as one or two "sensible countries do" (I.e. not somewhere like Brazil), others will quickly follow.

I could, for example, imagine most EU countries opening up simultaneously, once a high level of vaccination is reached.

Have to admit, the UK feels like a reasonably good place to be right now - well progressed with vaccinations, relatively few domestic restrictions in day to day life, little to no threat of a future lockdown, etc. The only major "downer" is limitations on international travel.

 

[Essan]

There is still an on-going tuberculosis pandemic ....

We are facing an unprecedented pandemic. A quarter of the world's population is infected and, between 2020 and 2021, it is predicted that 10 million people will have fallen ill, 3 million will not have been diagnosed or received care, and more than 1 million—mainly the most vulnerable—will have died.

This pandemic is not COVID-19 but tuberculosis. On World Tuberculosis Day, it is worth comparing the COVID-19 and tuberculosis pandemics to ensure that, while we focus on the former, we do not forget the latter.

A pandemic is defined as a disease that spreads across whole countries or the whole world. Tuberculosis and COVID-19 are both pandemics that show ongoing, sustained community transmission across continents. Indeed, no country is tuberculosis-free and this is likely to be the case soon for COVID-19.

Tackling two pandemics: a plea on World Tuberculosis Day

We are facing an unprecedented pandemic. A quarter of the world's population is infected and, between 2020 and 2021, it is predicted that 10 million people will have fallen ill, 3 million will not have been diagnosed or received care, and more than 1 million—mainly the most vulnerable—will have...

www.thelancet.com

 

[johnnychips]

Diseases are notoriously difficult to predict. The Great Plague of 1665 had largely died out the year after for no obvious reason (and no, it wasn’t the Fire of London somehow burning the germs). Anybody still got expensive internet-bought stocks of Tamiflu for Pig Flu, which similarly rapidly disappeared. Who knows?

 

[farleigh]

Diseases are notoriously difficult to predict. The Great Plague of 1665 had largely died out the year after for no obvious reason (and no, it wasn’t the Fire of London somehow burning the germs). Anybody still got expensive internet-bought stocks of Tamiflu for Pig Flu, which similarly rapidly disappeared. Who knows?

Maybe they had masks

 

[johnnychips]

Maybe they had masks

Who, the pigs?

 

[Jonny]

My cynical answer would be that the WHO will continue the pandemic indefinitely in order to maintain its own position in World Affairs.

I think the more pertinent question should be ‘Who will be the first country to declare that now Coronavirus is endemic, it is time to stop behaving as if we are in a perpetual pandemic?’
If every country does the same as they did in early 2020, and copy each other ‘because that’s what they did’, it could be declared as over in a matter of weeks…

Too many countries do not want to let go of the additional appearance of legitimacy in maintaining their power.

 

[greyman42]

Does the WHO have any credibility left?

 

[NorthKent1989]

I definitely agree that England is probably one of the few countries right now that is close to 2019 levels of freedom.

Of course we still need to put the vaccine passports for activities firmly in the bin before I can say we will get back to full normality, but I’m fairly optimistic that such an idea won’t get off the ground in this country, at worse maybe some regions will require them but even then going by the track and trace debacle which was dropped in most places after a few weeks, the same with passports.

With high level of vaccinated people there is no excuse to not go back to normal at this point and I feel England will be the first country in the West to so, parts of America have already like Texas and Florida but New York, California and Hawaii are rolling out the domestic passports.

France is close to doing a u turn on passports with many venues not enforcing it, so I think they won’t be far behind us or we won’t be far behind them.

Australia and New Zealand at this point are too far gone and normality for them is a pinprick in the far distance

 

[Busaholic]

I'd speculate that the WHO will declare an end to the pandemic about the time that this forum refuses to open any more 'temporary' threads under the Coronavirus Discussion label. I doubt I'll be around to see either.

 

[brad465]

The WHO won't declare an end to the pandemic if they listen to a so-called immunologist called Professor Dr Sai Reddy, who's decided to dub a yet to exist variant "Covid-22" and claim its more deadly than Delta. At the moment it's limited to a few tabloid articles and a widespread twitter trend, but one wonders if this sort of media sensationalism and behaviour of a few select professors will ramp up in the coming months:

'Covid-22' could be more deadly than Delta, expert claims

An expert has warned that a new variant dubbed "Covid-22" could be more lethal than the world-dominating Delta. Professor Doctor Sai Reddy of the federal

insiderpaper.com

An expert has warned that a new variant dubbed “Covid-22” could be more lethal than the world-dominating Delta.

Professor Doctor Sai Reddy of the federal technology institute ETH Zurich, an immunologist, believes that combination of existing strains could result in a new and more dangerous phase of the pandemic.

“It is very likely that a new variant will emerge and that we will no longer be able to rely on vaccinations alone,” immunologist Sai Reddy said.

Prof Reddy told the German newspaper Blick that Delta, dubbed COVID-21, was the most contagious variant of all.

He cited coronavirus variants from South Africa (Beta) and Brazil (Gamma) that have mutated, allowing them to evade antibodies to some extent. Delta, on the other hand, is far more contagious but has yet to develop such mutations.

“If Beta or Gamma becomes more contagious, or if Delta develops mutations, then we could be talking about a new phase of the pandemic,” said Reddy. “This would become the big problem of the coming year. Covid-22 could be even worse than what we are experiencing now.”

Professor Doctor Sai Reddy noted that recent scientific findings show that the viral load of the Delta variant is so high that anyone who contracts it who is unvaccinated can become a “super-spreader.”

“Since children under 12 cannot be vaccinated, they represent a large group of potential super-spreaders,” said Reddy.

He noted that the Delta variant can avoid vaccinations due to its extremely high viral load.

“We need to counter this with a high level of antibodies, and that is exactly what a third booster dose of vaccine does,” he explained.

 

[87electric]

Every “expert“ has an opinion these days. Yawn.

 

[ohgoditsjames]

The WHO won't declare an end to the pandemic if they listen to a so-called immunologist called Professor Dr Sai Reddy, who's decided to dub a yet to exist variant "Covid-22" and claim its more deadly than Delta. At the moment it's limited to a few tabloid articles and a widespread twitter trend, but one wonders if this sort of media sensationalism and behaviour of a few select professors will ramp up in the coming months:

'Covid-22' could be more deadly than Delta, expert claims

An expert has warned that a new variant dubbed "Covid-22" could be more lethal than the world-dominating Delta. Professor Doctor Sai Reddy of the federal

insiderpaper.com

This would play right into the hands of the conspiracy theorists. To be fair this entire fiasco has had things that have played right into the conspiracy theorists.

 

[Yew]

I can't remember, does it still count as a conspiracy theory if it comes true?

 

[kristiang85]

The WHO won't declare an end to the pandemic if they listen to a so-called immunologist called Professor Dr Sai Reddy, who's decided to dub a yet to exist variant "Covid-22" and claim its more deadly than Delta. At the moment it's limited to a few tabloid articles and a widespread twitter trend, but one wonders if this sort of media sensationalism and behaviour of a few select professors will ramp up in the coming months:

'Covid-22' could be more deadly than Delta, expert claims

An expert has warned that a new variant dubbed "Covid-22" could be more lethal than the world-dominating Delta. Professor Doctor Sai Reddy of the federal

insiderpaper.com

Can he provide an example of a previous coronavirus that has done this, especially so soon after the initial outbreak? It just flies against all virological evidence and logic.

Don't forget it took nearly 20 years for SARS to evolve into COVID-19, if we assume that it was a natural process.

 

[Eyersey468]

It's their favourite words could and might again. Article should be ignored IMO

 

[HSTEd]

Pandemics last years or decades

 

[Yew]

Pandemics last years or decades

Could you provide a citation of one lasting multiple decades in the modern era?

 

[Ianno87]

Could you provide a citation of one lasting multiple decades in the modern era?

HIV/AIDS (currently a Pandemic in Africa)

 

[HSTEd]

Could you provide a citation of one lasting multiple decades in the modern era?

Well the obvious one is the HIV pandemic.

But there are relatively few pandemics "in the modern era".

They aren't that common!

The Seventh Cholera pandemic lasted 14 years in the 60s and 70s.

 

[Yew]

HIV/AIDS (currently a Pandemic in Africa)

You can hardly call AIDs a new disease.

According to the WHO, a pandemic is defined as the “worldwide spread of a new disease.”

Pandemic: What It Is and What It Means for You (healthline.com)

 

[HSTEd]

You can hardly call AIDs a new virus...

Well it was new when it emerged and has been a pandemic pretty much since then.

 

[Yew]

Well it was new when it emerged and has been a pandemic pretty much since then.

And according to the WHO definition above, if it's not new, it's not pandemic. By that definition, we're still in the midst of the 1968 Hong Kong Flu pandemic

 

[Richard Scott]

Well it was new when it emerged and has been a pandemic pretty much since then.

Thought for a pandemic 5% of population had to be infected, doubt this is true of HIV?

 

[brad465]

This article has since been updated to talk more about health worker losses (with a rather broad assessment), but was originally talking about the WHO saying the pandemic will drag on well into 2022 because developing countries are not receiving enough vaccines:

Covid: Virus may have killed 80k-180k health workers, WHO says

The global health body says healthcare workers should be prioritised for vaccination.

www.bbc.com

Covid has severely affected healthcare staff and may have killed between 80,000 and 180,000, the World Health Organization (WHO) says.
Healthcare workers must be prioritised for vaccines, WHO head Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said, and he criticised unfairness in the distribution of jabs.
The deaths occurred between January 2020 and May of this year.
Earlier, another senior WHO official warned a lack of jabs could see the pandemic continue well into next year.
There are an estimated 135 million healthcare workers globally.
"Data from 119 countries suggest that on average, two in five healthcare workers globally are fully vaccinated," Dr Tedros said.

"But of course, that average masks huge differences across regions and economic groupings."
Fewer than one in 10 healthcare workers were fully vaccinated in Africa, he said, compared with eight in 10 in high-income countries.
A failure to provide poorer countries with enough vaccines was highlighted earlier by Dr Bruce Aylward, a senior leader at the WHO, who said it meant the Covid crisis could "easily drag on deep into 2022".
Less than 5% of Africa's population have been vaccinated, compared with 40% on most other continents.
The vast majority of Covid vaccines overall have been used in high-income or upper middle-income countries. Africa accounts for just 2.6% of doses administered globally.

While it's great we have vaccines and absolutely need to distribute them as much as possible, including to developing countries, we seem to be forgetting that no pandemic in history has ever been brought to an end with vaccines, yet they still ended. At some point pre-2020 conditions for a pandemic ending will come about, if they haven't already, whether that be the virus disappears or becomes mild enough not to cause unsustainable healthcare burdens.

If the experts who recently said covid will be more like a cold by next spring turn out to be correct, I would certainly call that enough to end the pandemic. One thing though that is definitely helping keep it going is the constant mass testing of cases, without any equivalent for other ailments. The 50k cases a day we're roughly recording is in conjunction with a death rate less than half that at the end of 2020 (with hardly any vaccine immunity), while hospitals have less than a third of covid case occupation at the same points in time.

 

[Skimpot flyer]

This article has since been updated to talk more about health worker losses (with a rather broad assessment), but was originally talking about the WHO saying the pandemic will drag on well into 2022 because developing countries are not receiving enough vaccines:

Covid: Virus may have killed 80k-180k health workers, WHO says

The global health body says healthcare workers should be prioritised for vaccination.

www.bbc.com

While it's great we have vaccines and absolutely need to distribute them as much as possible, including to developing countries, we seem to be forgetting that no pandemic in history has ever been brought to an end with vaccines, yet they still ended. At some point pre-2020 conditions for a pandemic ending will come about, if they haven't already, whether that be the virus disappears or becomes mild enough not to cause unsustainable healthcare burdens.

If the experts who recently said covid will be more like a cold by next spring turn out to be correct, I would certainly call that enough to end the pandemic. One thing though that is definitely helping keep it going is the constant mass testing of cases, without any equivalent for other ailments. The 50k cases a day we're roughly recording is in conjunction with a death rate less than half that at the end of 2020 (with hardly any vaccine immunity), while hospitals have less than a third of covid case occupation at the same points in time.

If you dig more deeply into the figures, that 50k of positive tests was derived from almost a million tests!!! So 95% of those tested were negative. A great use of taxpayers money. Not.

 

[Eyersey468]

I can understand testing if you have symptoms but testing for the sake of testing seems a complete waste of time and effort to me, I am not convinced asymptomatic transmission is as common as is claimed