Cambrian hourly service consultation

[PHILIPE]

Due to the fact that 158s are not plentiful and the restriction on the route for the use of ERMTS ones, I think that any suggestions re extending anywhere beyond Shrewsbury should be sensibly ruled out as any extension would require further additional unit/s.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

And still nobody has yet justified the Salop - Crewe extension!

It's not an extension, it would take over the existing 2-hourly Salop-Crewe in roughly the same path.
More connectivity for no extra cost (Manchester/Liverpool/North-West).
It also opens up an extra London option.

 

[merlodlliw]

Your argument would have some weight if the train only called at Rhyl!

I dont understand your point,having mentioned a specific station in reply to Gareths comment, I use Rhyl station very often & trains within minutes of each other going to Chester and beyond in Winter is overkill, the four trains I mention are one VT & three ATW

 

[Gareth Marston]

Due to the fact that 158s are not plentiful and the restriction on the route for the use of ERMTS ones, I think that any suggestions re extending anywhere beyond Shrewsbury should be sensibly ruled out as any extension would require further additional unit/s.

One extra unit could do

Mach. 0704.
Newtown. 0741. 0941. 1141 1341. 1541. 1741
Salop 0819. 1019. 1219 1419. 1619. 1819

Salop. 0827 1027 1227 1427 1627 1827
Newtown 0904 1104 1304 1504 1704 1904
Mach. 1940
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

I dont understand your point,having mentioned a specific station in reply to Gareths comment, I use Rhyl station very often & trains within minutes of each other going to Chester and beyond in Winter is overkill, the four trains I mention are one VT & three ATW

The north Wales coast tt is a pigs ear as VT and ATw don't coordinate their tt,s. I,m not suggesting anywhere Is less important than anywhere else, the ATW services that follow the Virgin ones are often very lightly loaded. I would suggest 2 tph Chester to Llandudno junc all TOCs is plenty, with 1 tph beyond off peak and 2 in peaks.

 

[PHILIPE]

It's not an extension, it would take over the existing 2-hourly Salop-Crewe in roughly the same path.
More connectivity for no extra cost (Manchester/Liverpool/North-West).
It also opens up an extra London option.

You've missed the point. It would entail an additonal 158 (ERTMS) the numbers of which are limited.

 

[Arglwydd Golau]

[]

The north Wales coast tt is a pigs ear as VT and ATw don't coordinate their tt,s. I,m not suggesting anywhere Is less important than anywhere else, the ATW services that follow the Virgin ones are often very lightly loaded. I would suggest 2 tph Chester to Llandudno junc all TOCs is plenty, with 1 tph beyond off peak and 2 in peaks.[/QUOTE]

If Virgin and ATW don't coordinate their timetables along the N Wales coast as you suggest ( and I think you're probably correct), then surely this is an issue for the WG to sort out, bang a few heads etc?

 

[Gareth Marston]

Why Salop - Crewe? Sorry but I do not understand the continual harking about this extension.
From my experience most of us locals either want to travel to Salop to go shopping or for work, or to Brum. There are a few wanting to go onto Manchester, normally for the airport, or down to Cardiff, and a few go to Chester.
For longer distances, typically London, most seem to be happy to change at either Wolves or B'ham International, so only have to change once. The only possible "mass" users of Crewe might be Aber students from the North West, at term change times.

However I will agree that it does need 2 units, preferably 3 car!

Of the 551,000 Cambrian journeys to/from England each year 58% are with the West Midlands, 20% with London and the South East, 9.3% with the East and North East, 8.8% with the North West and 3.5% with the South West.

There's just 20,500 journeys to non Cambrian Wales each year.

 

[Eagle]

If Virgin and ATW don't coordinate their timetables along the N Wales coast as you suggest ( and I think you're probably correct), then surely this is an issue for the WG to sort out, bang a few heads etc?

Virgin can't do anything major with their timetable until the WCML recast (which keeps getting postponed, it's looking like 2016 at the earliest).

 

[jones_bangor]

Of the 551,000 Cambrian journeys to/from England each year 58% are with the West Midlands, 20% with London and the South East, 9.3% with the East and North East, 8.8% with the North West and 3.5% with the South West.

There's just 20,500 journeys to non Cambrian Wales each year.

Let's face it, most people would drive, it just takes too long.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Let's face it, most people would drive, it just takes too long.

Even with the prioritisation of Cardiff connections at Shrewsbury. Even with 45 minute waits for Manchester trains the NW England market is much much larger.

 

[rebmcr]

The University traffic will probably mean heavy weighting to/from major conurbations.

 

[Rich McLean]

This is the only way I can see it working for Hourly Cambrians

Down
0625 Birmingham New Street - Aberystwyth 0920 (Shrewsbury arr 0718 - dep 0727)
0708 Birmingham International - Llandudno 1030 (Shrewsbury arr 0819 - dep 0821)
0740 Wrexham General - Aberystwyth 1025 (Shrewsbury arr 0820 dep 0827 ) *
0808 Birmingham International - Aberystwyth (front) 1125 & Pwllheli(rear) 1310 - (Shrewsbury arr 0919 - dep 0921) - Splits at Machynlleth
0908 Birmingham International - Holyhead(front) 1313 & Aberystwyth(rear) 1225 - Splits at Shrewsbury. Front portion departs 1023, rear at 1027
1008 Birmingham International - Aberystwyth(front) 1325 & Pwllheli (rear) 1510 - (Shrewsbury arr 1119 - dep 1121) - Splits at Machynlleth
1108 Birmingham International - Holyhead (front) 1508 & Aberystwyth(rear) 1325 - Splits at Shrewsbury, Front dep 1222, rear 1227)
etc etc

UP
0518 Shrewsbury - Birmingham International 0650
0633 Shrewsbury - Birmingham International 0750
0514 Aberystwyth - Birmingham International 0850 (Shrewsbury arr 0711 dep 0733)
0515 Holyhead(front) & 0630(rear) Aberystwyth - Birmingham International 0950 - (Shrewsbury, front arr 0824, rear arr 0826, dep 0831 for Birmingham International) - Note: Another 158 will be required for the Wrexham to Aberystwyth through service.
0646 Barmouth(front) & 0730 Aberystwyth(rear) - Birmingham International 1050 (Shrewsbury arr 0926 - dep 0933) - combines at Machynlleth. **
0830 Aberystwyth(front) - 0715 Holyhead(rear) - Birmingham International 1150 (Shrewsbury, front arr 1026, rear arr 1029, attach then depart 1033)
0720 Pwllheli(front) & 0930 Aberystwyth(rear) - Birmingham International 1250 (Shrewsbury arr 1126 - dep 1133) - combines at Machynlleth

etc etc

Notes:
*This service used to join the 0831 to International, but instead operates as a through service to Aberystwyth. Runs 7 minutes earlier to provide a connection with a Birmingham Service and to enable the driver to change ends. 0700 Shrewsbury to Wrexham Service will become the 0653 as a result.
**This is the current 6 car 158, subject to change.

That Pattern would work quite well until the 1919 off SHR, where it would revert to how it works now. It would require 2 more 158's however.

Also, ECS moves have not been included.

I have added the full station names and take out the head codes. I have also highlighted in Bold where the changes are

 

[Llanigraham]

Of the 551,000 Cambrian journeys to/from England each year 58% are with the West Midlands, 20% with London and the South East, 9.3% with the East and North East, 8.8% with the North West and 3.5% with the South West.

There's just 20,500 journeys to non Cambrian Wales each year.

Thank you Gareth.
That seems to prove that the Crewe "extension" is NOT required.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Let's face it, most people would drive, it just takes too long.

Not from local experience!!

Rich Mclean
Not all of us understand those (I presume) acronyms. We don't use them in signal boxes, so you've lost me!!

 

[Rich McLean]

Thank you Gareth.
That seems to prove that the Crewe "extension" is NOT required.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---


Not from local experience!!

Rich Mclean
Not all of us understand those (I presume) acronyms. We don't use them in signal boxes, so you've lost me!!

I have edited the post for clarity, and have put the changes in Bold

 

[Gareth Marston]

Thank you Gareth.
That seems to prove that the Crewe "extension" is NOT required.
--- old post above --- --- new post

On the contrary better connections to the NW are needed as this is where the larger untapped market is, the point I'm making is that there are still a lot doing it with the 45 minute waits for Manchester and 60 minute for Chester which are big barriers to travel then if things were better more would do it. I know from work colleagues and living in Newtown that linkages to NW are fairly strong.

When extra trains were first looked at it seemed a logical extension of the Crewe to salop stopper.

 

[merlodlliw]

Thank you Gareth.
That seems to prove that the Crewe "extension" is NOT required.
--- old post above --- --- new post

On the contrary better connections to the NW are needed as this is where the larger untapped market is, the point I'm making is that there are still a lot doing it with the 45 minute waits for Manchester and 60 minute for Chester which are big barriers to travel then if things were better more would do it. I know from work colleagues and living in Newtown that linkages to NW are fairly strong.

When extra trains were first looked at it seemed a logical extension of the Crewe to salop stopper.

Members of our rail Association SCRUA, often speak of arriving at Shrewsbury off the Cambrian, only to see the Chester train departing at the very same time,ATW know its a big problem as do frustrated passengers having to wait another hour at the station. One day ATWs Cardiff HQ will realise Cambrian Trains & Chester trains are run by the same Company.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Members of our rail Association SCRUA, often speak of arriving at Shrewsbury off the Cambrian, only to see the Chester train departing at the very same time,ATW know its a big problem as do frustrated passengers having to wait another hour at the station. One day ATWs Cardiff HQ will realise Cambrian Trains & Chester trains are run by the same Company.

Atw s mike Bagshaw promised it would be sorted out After the Wrexham redouble, we're also still on the retb tt down the Cambrian 3 and half years after Ertms was introduced. UP trains regularly wait for up to 6 minutes at Newtown.

 

[merlodlliw]

Atw s mike Bagshaw promised it would be sorted out After the Wrexham redouble, we're also still on the retb tt down the Cambrian 3 and half years after Ertms was introduced. UP trains regularly wait for up to 6 minutes at Newtown.

Thats December 2015 at the earliest as WG have now wasted at least half a year holding up the redouble, I dont see the redouble ready for the May 2015 elections or timetable now, it will take NR a few months to advertise the contract and select a Company to start in 2014.

 

[Rhydgaled]

Due to the fact that 158s are not plentiful and the restriction on the route for the use of ERMTS ones, I think that any suggestions re extending anywhere beyond Shrewsbury should be sensibly ruled out as any extension would require further additional unit/s.

I agree. In fact I think it should be done without increasing the number of diagrams which MUST be a 158 (ie. ones that run into the ERTMS zone) but without reducing the capacity of existing Cambrian serivces (other than reducing the 6-car set to 4-car set, with the 09:30 off Aberystwyth being 2-car to allow the other set to instead form an 08:30 off Aberystwyth). The only way I can see of doing that is to cut the Holyhead - Birminghams at Chester and use 175s on the Holyhead - Chester leg.

I've knocked up a simplified (made clockface) listing of what I believe are today's workings and added in the hourly Aberystwyth serivce with changed workings highlighted (see attached). In fact, I discovered that you would only have a 1min turnround at Shrewsbury if the extra services terminated there on current clockface intervals. However, if I'm right, it does also show that you can in fact run an hourly Aberystwyth - Birmingham service with just the two additional units required for Aberystwth - Shrewsbury.

It's not an extension, it would take over the existing 2-hourly Salop-Crewe in roughly the same path.
More connectivity for no extra cost (Manchester/Liverpool/North-West).
It also opens up an extra London option.

But the Crewe - Shrewsbury stopper is not a 158, so you'd need to find a 3rd 158.

The north Wales coast tt is a pigs ear as VT and ATw don't coordinate their tt,s. I,m not suggesting anywhere Is less important than anywhere else, the ATW services that follow the Virgin ones are often very lightly loaded. I would suggest 2 tph Chester to Llandudno junc all TOCs is plenty, with 1 tph beyond off peak and 2 in peaks.

If Virgin and ATW don't coordinate their timetables along the N Wales coast as you suggest ( and I think you're probably correct), then surely this is an issue for the WG to sort out, bang a few heads etc?

It doesn't help that the ICWC service in north Wales is very 'lumpy', running at hourly intervals at (presumably peak) times with some very big gaps. If the ICWC service was evened out, say a train every 2 hours throughout the day, it might be easier to create a coordinated timetable. As it is, ATW would probably have to abandon all pretence of a standard pattern timetable to coordinate their Holyhead/Bangor service with VT's.

Thats December 2015 at the earliest as WG have now wasted at least half a year holding up the redouble, I dont see the redouble ready for the May 2015 elections or timetable now, it will take NR a few months to advertise the contract and select a Company to start in 2014.

I suppose how long it takes depends on if they do most of it in one 'big bang' possession like Gowerton???

 

[merlodlliw]

I suppose how long it takes depends on if they do most of it in one 'big bang' possession like Gowerton???

[/QUOTE]

Gowerton had a new station built,well part of it,I recall NR in its statement to stakeholders spoke of a nine day possession on our line, plus there is no new station at Wrexham North in the current drawings & costings.

Now for the buses, Arriva Bus Wales,owned by Germany's DB,last week announced its attention to stop running buses on many routes in Wales including the Cambrian and North East Wales areas,one specific service is the X94,Barmouth to Wrexham bi hourly Mon/Sat daytime service via Dolgellau/Bala/Corwen/Llangollen, Arriva Bus Wales have also put 43 drivers on redundanmcy consultation & intend close some depts including Dolgellau, this service replaced the Ruabon to Barmouth train and is a lifeline to locals who have no cars,many visiting the giant Wrexham Maelor hospital, a WG petition has been launched to save this service,you do not have to live in Wales to sign to get WG to continue to run this service which Arriva want to finish on Dec 21st
https://www.assemblywales.org/epetition-list-of-signatories.htm?pet_id=924
Many of you on RF will have used this service while on Holiday.
The WG Ministers bus comment is below
http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/local-news/carl-sargeant-bus-subsidy-reforms-2503216

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

one specific service is the X94,Barmouth to Wrexham bi hourly Mon/Sat daytime service via Dolgellau/Bala/Corwen/Llangollen, Arriva Bus Wales have also put 43 drivers on redundanmcy consultation & intend close some depts including Dolgellau, this service replaced the Ruabon to Barmouth train and is a lifeline to locals who have no cars,many visiting the giant Wrexham Maelor hospital, a WG petition has been launched to save this service,you do not have to live in Wales to sign to get WG to continue to run this service which Arriva want to finish on Dec 21st

Is this a commercial service at the moment, or is it subsidised?
It has a case to be considered like rural train services.
On the other hand there is a finite pot (so other things might be cut instead - like trains...).
I imagine there will still be other Corwen/Llangollen-Wrexham buses.

 

[Rhydgaled]

Is this a commercial service at the moment, or is it subsidised?

Most of the services Arriva are abandoning are borderline commertial I think, only one (what they call the 'scenic route to Lampeter) is a contracted service.

Now for the buses, Arriva Bus Wales,owned by Germany's DB,last week announced its attention to stop running buses on many routes in Wales including the Cambrian and North East Wales areas,one specific service is the X94,Barmouth to Wrexham bi hourly Mon/Sat daytime service via Dolgellau/Bala/Corwen/Llangollen, Arriva Bus Wales have also put 43 drivers on redundanmcy consultation & intend close some depts including Dolgellau, this service replaced the Ruabon to Barmouth train and is a lifeline to locals who have no cars,many visiting the giant Wrexham Maelor hospital, a WG petition has been launched to save this service,you do not have to live in Wales to sign to get WG to continue to run this service which Arriva want to finish on Dec 21st
https://www.assemblywales.org/epetition-list-of-signatories.htm?pet_id=924
Many of you on RF will have used this service while on Holiday.
The WG Ministers bus comment is below
http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/local-news/carl-sargeant-bus-subsidy-reforms-2503216

Personally, I think the BSOG replacment should be reallocated to funding tendered routes. Arriva's 'commertial' operation of the 40 and 50 services annoys me. The hours of operation on the 40 in particular are a bit rubish, and it prevented the TrawsCymru TC1 service and means the TrawsCambria X50 service cannot be tended as a through service to Aberystwyth all day. We have been discussing this on the TrawsCambria / TrawsCymru topic With tendered services, the councils/WAG have more control on things like hours of operation. They also help keep the service running, the 'scenic route to Lampeter' has to remain until Feburary I think due to a contractal commitment, wheras the 'commertial' services can be withdrawn at shorter notice, much like Wrexham & Shropshire's sudden demise. You can't rely on an open access service like you can a tendered one.

Interesting that the X94 petition currently has more signitures than the general increase bus funding one.

Interesting speech too from the former Welsh transport minister, esspecially the Margaret Thatcher quote:

anyone over the age of thirty who travelled on a bus was a failure.

This is evidence of the poor perception that buses seem to have amongst many. That's one reason why I'm so keen to see TrawsCymru/TrawsCambria resurected, to try and make buses as attractive as trains and start generating modal shift, as rail seems to have been doing recently. If you can tackle that poor perception, maybe the frequent calls for a Carmarthen - Aberystwyth railway will go away.

--------------------------------
Anyway, back to the Cambrian. Has anyone checked my working on the resources needed for an hourly service yet?

 

[jones_bangor]

I agree. In fact I think it should be done without increasing the number of diagrams which MUST be a 158 (ie. ones that run into the ERTMS zone) but without reducing the capacity of existing Cambrian serivces (other than reducing the 6-car set to 4-car set, with the 09:30 off Aberystwyth being 2-car to allow the other set to instead form an 08:30 off Aberystwyth). The only way I can see of doing that is to cut the Holyhead - Birminghams at Chester and use 175s on the Holyhead - Chester leg.

I've knocked up a simplified (made clockface) listing of what I believe are today's workings and added in the hourly Aberystwyth serivce with changed workings highlighted (see attached). In fact, I discovered that you would only have a 1min turnround at Shrewsbury if the extra services terminated there on current clockface intervals. However, if I'm right, it does also show that you can in fact run an hourly Aberystwyth - Birmingham service with just the two additional units required for Aberystwth - Shrewsbury.

But the Crewe - Shrewsbury stopper is not a 158, so you'd need to find a 3rd 158.

It doesn't help that the ICWC service in north Wales is very 'lumpy', running at hourly intervals at (presumably peak) times with some very big gaps. If the ICWC service was evened out, say a train every 2 hours throughout the day, it might be easier to create a coordinated timetable. As it is, ATW would probably have to abandon all pretence of a standard pattern timetable to coordinate their Holyhead/Bangor service with VT's.

I suppose how long it takes depends on if they do most of it in one 'big bang' possession like Gowerton???

Hang on here...the reason the North Wales ICWC is lumpy is because it actually corresponds with demand, lots of people wanting to get East in the morning, and lots of people wanting to get West in the evening. Connections Westwards from Crewe / Chester are not ideal even now in the 7pm+ zone, and the loss of the Gerald connection at Crewe was not great.

It really is a shame that the ex-Gerald Mk2s couldn't be put on a Cambrian service with appropriate traction, as a Aberystwyth - Shrewsbury service. Copuld be worth overhauling a couple of 37s and putting one at each end?

 

[merlodlliw]

Personally, I think the BSOG replacment should be reallocated to funding tendered routes. Arriva's 'commertial' operation of the 40 and 50 services annoys me. The hours of operation on the 40 in particular are a bit rubish, and it prevented the TrawsCymru TC1 service and means the TrawsCambria X50 service cannot be tended as a through service to Aberystwyth all day. We have been discussing this on the TrawsCambria / TrawsCymru topic With tendered services, the councils/WAG have more control on things like hours of operation. They also help keep the service running, the 'scenic route to Lampeter' has to remain until Feburary I think due to a contractal commitment, wheras the 'commertial' services can be withdrawn at shorter notice, much like Wrexham & Shropshire's sudden demise. You can't rely on an open access service like you can a tendered one.

Interesting that the X94 petition currently has more signatures than the general increase bus funding one.

I am sure had it not been for Arriva Bus Wales having to give redundancy notice to its drivers, it would have stopped the services now,like DB did to W/S. Interesting to note the X94 evening and Sunday services are run by GHA who have shown no intention of cutting their X94 service.
I somehow think the Arriva X94 buses were funded by WG, well Welsh Govt logos are all over the Arriva X 94.

 

[The Planner]

It really is a shame that the ex-Gerald Mk2s couldn't be put on a Cambrian service with appropriate traction, as a Aberystwyth - Shrewsbury service. Copuld be worth overhauling a couple of 37s and putting one at each end?

37s have a few nasty speed restrictions under ERTMS down there, I don't think you could fit them in an hourly pattern.

 

[krus_aragon]

Hang on here...the reason the North Wales ICWC is lumpy is because it actually corresponds with demand, lots of people wanting to get East in the morning, and lots of people wanting to get West in the evening.

There's also the ferry traffic demand. That isn't really served by ICWC any more: they all pile on to the next 158 or 175 to depart Holyhead instead.

 

[Rhydgaled]

It really is a shame that the ex-Gerald Mk2s couldn't be put on a Cambrian service with appropriate traction, as a Aberystwyth - Shrewsbury service. Copuld be worth overhauling a couple of 37s and putting one at each end?

The extra Cambrians are likely to be 2-car to Shrewsbury (I hope the current ones will remain 4-car). LHCS is costly for short trains, would be better to use the mrk2s in longer formations on routes that really need the capacity. As far as ATW is concerned, I think that means Manchester - north Wales.

I am sure had it not been for Arriva Bus Wales having to give redundancy notice to its drivers, it would have stopped the services now,like DB did to W/S. Interesting to note the X94 evening and Sunday services are run by GHA who have shown no intention of cutting their X94 service.

I believe the GHA workings are run under contract, not commertially as all/most of Arriva's trips are. Hence tendered bus services are more like franchised rail services and commertial bus services are more like open access and can disappear almost at any moment.

I somehow think the Arriva X94 buses were funded by WG, well Welsh Govt logos are all over the Arriva X 94.

X94 is a TrawsCambria route and as such was part-funded by Welsh Government (though it was part-commertial, which I am told is the reason the buses weren't Optare Tempos like the X40, 550, X50 and 704 TrawsCambria routes). I think Arriva decided more recently to run most of X94 commertially though, just as the X40 is now the commertialy operated 40.

 

[Gareth Marston]

1530 from Aberstwyth was full and standing leaving Aber yesterday.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

There's also the ferry traffic demand. That isn't really served by ICWC any more: they all pile on to the next 158 or 175 to depart Holyhead instead.

Trust me - as an ex strategic planner - trying to get a fix with ferries is nigh on impossible , as they can and do change at very short notice (especially with concerns over fuel costs and so on their end) - so whilst every effort is made (spectacularly so in the Ash Cloud weeks - remember) - like all timetable and resource plans - it is a major compromise....

 

[merlodlliw]

The extra Cambrians are likely to be 2-car to Shrewsbury (I hope the current ones will remain 4-car). LHCS is costly for short trains, would be better to use the mrk2s in longer formations on routes that really need the capacity. As far as ATW is concerned, I think that means Manchester - north Wales.

I believe the GHA workings are run under contract, not commertially as all/most of Arriva's trips are. Hence tendered bus services are more like franchised rail services and commertial bus services are more like open access and can disappear almost at any moment.

X94 is a TrawsCambria route and as such was part-funded by Welsh Government (though it was part-commertial, which I am told is the reason the buses weren't Optare Tempos like the X40, 550, X50 and 704 TrawsCambria routes). I think Arriva decided more recently to run most of X94 commertially though, just as the X40 is now the commertialy operated 40.

1.On whose contract does GHA run the X94?
2.I think ATW sees Manchester/Cardiff/Manchester as the earner,there's a Sunday hourly service running , Cardiff/North Wales only have two services on Sunday due to small demand, Chester/Manchester is also hourly on Sunday