Sensible proposals for restarting the electrification programme

[Bald Rick]

From the MML electrification thread:

Could 2020 be a good year for MML electrification beyond Market Harborough? Here are the highlights of an intriguing twitter thread:
https://twitter.com/Rail_Elec/status/1225719446179909633

Earlier this week there was a decarbonisation roundtable with Network Rail, DfT, @raildeliverygrp and @railindustry. What did we learn about electrification and a rolling programme?

NR developing a Network Traction Decarbonisation Strategy; with two options: full decarb by 2050 (with a price tag) or by 2040 (with a price tag). Network Rail at pains to highlight that they don’t make funding decisions, but essentially creating a shopping list.

NR’s strategy will be issued in October, but there will be an interim issued in July. The July edition will feature a map, showing what will need to be electrified. We love maps – so this is music to our ears.

NR stated anywhere with 100mph service or an ‘intense’ timetable will need to be electrified. That leaves an open door to a lot of interpretation. However, is confirmation from Network Rail that at least some electrification is needed.

On the question of will rail electrification be funded? DfT highlighted that from a government perspective rail has advantages: the technology actually exists now & enabling it encourages more people to move to rail: ie: electric trains create more capacity.

NR states that the initial report will propose some early projects. Both DfT and NR agreed that this might enable funding for ‘no-brainer projects’ this year. MML – perhaps – no comment from the civil servants.​

The grapevines suggest that Government is keen, and IMHO we will see some announcements this year to a) restart some (but not necessarily all) of the ‘paused’ schemes, and b) kick off studies into other proposals. All will make good news, particularly with the climate summit coming later in the year, and the inevitable round of protests from extinction rebellion etc over the summer. So what would you do, and, more importantly why?

My complete guesses for each are:

a) Restarting paused schemes:
Market Harboro’ (pretty much ready to go, quick win)
Didcot - Oxford (most of the hard work is already done, quick to restart, likely to be first to finish)
Stalybridge - Manchester Vic (in the NW, relatively advanced, quite a few services would benefit)
Windermere (in the North, good politically, easy and cheap to do, potential for a lot of diesel mileage to be removed)
Not sure about Bristol - Thingley/Filton. Possibly, if only to give something to the ‘South West’

All that will take around 3-5 years to complete given a quick ‘go’ decision. Possessions would be the key issue.

b) further proposals, for delivery before the decade is out:
Neville Hill - Colton / Hambleton (in the north east, local and long distance services benefit)
Market Harboro’ - Nottingham / Sheffield (great politically, studies largely done)
Felixstowe branch. (Popular with the freight boys and girls.)
Birmingham Snow Hill suburban network: Stratford / Dorridge - Kiddy, possibly Worcester (something for the W Mids, and removes a substantial chunk of diesel running through the new central Birmingham ULEZ)
Trans Pennine (obvious)
At a stretch, Chiltern (last major diesel route into London) and Westerleigh - Bromsgrove + Birmingham - Derby + Oxford - Aynho (in conjunction with all the above, would electrify most of Cross Country).

Scotland will do its own thing.

With some careful fleet jiggling, the benefits could be quite significant. For example I have a personal hankering to see the Pendolinos on the MML for a final fling before retirement, with the new bimodes sent to Cross Country. Over to you.

Anyone who says ‘electrify everything’ or gives reasoning something like ‘because electrified railways are better, innit’ is automatically disqualified.

 

[ainsworth74]

Neville Hill - Colton / Hambleton (in the north east, local and long distance services benefit)

In the North East!?

I do wonder if Chiltern is a bit of a dark horse. It would be a winner in many respects as it would eliminate a high intensity diesel railway running into the two largest cities in the UK.

 

[Bald Rick]

In the North East!?

I do wonder if Chiltern is a bit of a dark horse. It would be a winner in many respects as it would eliminate a high intensity diesel railway running into the two largest cities in the UK.

Well it’s North East of where I am . Also north/east of Leeds.

Chiltern. It is an obvious one, but likely to be pricey. May need batteries for the tunnels into London and Brum. If Chiltern was to have a new 20 year franchise now, I suspect it would be done. Much of the rolling stock will be due in the next 10 years too. Stars aligning.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

Being biased , I would commend Cardiff to Swansea - if only to satisfy my past promise to buy several rounds in Swansea on the arrival of the first electric train in the city. (I do not want it to be with my ashes in an urn on the table)

While you are at it - a bit of a service recast , if Filton Bank is done - to run Swansea - Bristol electric , very much a growing market from at least Cardiff.

Ely to Peterbrough also. Fairly straightforward - with excellent possibilties for service alterations in a growing region.

A am sort of motivated by my getting (in the past) - a "Rail" front page which said "ATOC says electrify more" - partly successful to be fair.

 

[Bald Rick]

Being biased , I would commend Cardiff to Swansea - if only to satisfy my past promise to buy several rounds in Swansea on the arrival of the first electric train in the city. (I do not want it to be with my ashes in an urn on the table)

*thinks about calling a few favours in to get a 319 towed to Swansea and collect pint*

 

[Aictos]

Before the Felixstowe branch is even considered, I would say you have to consider other routes that the freight use eg Ipswich to Peterborough etc

But more importantly, I think we should consider the likes of Ely to Peterborough, Peterborough to Birmingham via Leicester and Nuneaton which would give the ability to run 4 car EMUs instead of 2 or 3 car DMUs on a major XC route.

It would also mean journey times could be sped up using EMUs as trains would be faster and cleaner as well as more seats.

The only hiccup is Leicester needing to be remodelled I believe before OHL arrives but other then that I believe the route needs to be done before I retire in 30 something years!

 

[158756]

Well it’s North East of where I am . Also north/east of Leeds.

Chiltern. It is an obvious one, but likely to be pricey. May need batteries for the tunnels into London and Brum. If Chiltern was to have a new 20 year franchise now, I suspect it would be done. Much of the rolling stock will be due in the next 10 years too. Stars aligning.

Something has to happen with Chiltern, because at some point it will become unacceptable/illegal to continue spewing out diesel fumes in London. The freight at Acton will run into similar problems, though there's no single scheme that could fix that.

Other than the cost and tunnels, the other negative for Chiltern, (or any other major new scheme) is that following the catastrophic overruns on the CP5 projects, we know that new projects cannot be announced and built in one Parliament or probably even two, so does anyone in government want to commit to a scheme they won't be around to take credit for?

On that basis I think re -announcement of some of the easier cancelled schemes is most likely - Oxford, Windermere. I would say Leeds-York but it can't be done if there are still any aspirations for extra tracks or stations. Likewise Stalybridge shouldn't be done until the junction has been fixed if Transpennine trains are going to continue to run to Victoria.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

*thinks about calling a few favours in to get a 319 towed to Swansea and collect pint*

Having "saved" Maliphant sidings (now the only bit of OLE west of Cardiff West) - and now overnight base for the 800's (testing arrangements etc) - on an empty road at the west end - a 319 - might just get into the platforms with a wide open controller , under coasting - probably minus a pan........(about £10K + disruption)

No , it has to be the "proper" job. Seriously - with the topography of the homeland , and with every station from Neath to Cardiff at the bottom of a climb - there are some (marginal) benefits of electric operation. Mind you there is a low base at the moment with 142 / 143 sets knocking around on modest services like Cardiff -Swansea - West Wales.

 

[Raul_Duke]

Something has to happen with Chiltern, because at some point it will become unacceptable/illegal to continue spewing out diesel fumes in London.

I think you’re spot on there, not just for Chiltern but for all TOC’s running into London. Unfortunately I suspect we’re in for bi-modes rather than more wires, so they can be clean in London and b*****s to the rest of the country.

 

[yorksrob]

Ashford - Ore. Eminently sensible.

 

[brad465]

As well as Filton Bank and Didcot to Oxford, Chippenham-Temple Meads via Bath should be done. While a uni student in Bath I have fond memories of the Box Hill tunnel and Sydney Gardens' possessions of summer 2015, the Bath to Bristol Easter 2016 possession, and the spring 2017 Bath station platform expansions (and others I may have missed). All of them were done as preparation for the electrification that is yet to arrive, so it would be a case of just putting up the OHLE and power supply.

 

[AndrewE]

Chiltern. It is an obvious one, but likely to be pricey. May need batteries for the tunnels into London and Brum. If Chiltern was to have a new 20 year franchise now, I suspect it would be done. Much of the rolling stock will be due in the next 10 years too. Stars aligning.

We don't want to have otherwise-good routes knocked back because of the costs of electrifying places with clearance problems, and I doubt that battery main-line trains will be made to work soon either.
Time to resurrect my plea for an additional "standard" limited-clearance pantograph. It would be narrow, so normally only put up on restricted-speed lines (Forth Bridge and tunnelled approach to London Marylebone would be good examples) and would get real electrification extended quickly in places where it is desperately needed. Most stock (and locos) have multiple pantograph wells now, so just do it!

 

[AM9]

Interesting suggestions here. It wouldn't take that much of the above to be completed for there not be a need for any more new DMUs. I think that the DfT would be reluctant to allow any pure diesel MUs to be ordered, instead insisting that only bimodes, BEMUs and in extremely extenuating circumstances, DEMUs that are convertible to EMUs are introduced.

 

[Andyjs247]

As well as Filton Bank and Didcot to Oxford, Chippenham-Temple Meads via Bath should be done. While a uni student in Bath I have fond memories of the Box Hill tunnel and Sydney Gardens' possessions of summer 2015, the Bath to Bristol Easter 2016 possession, and the spring 2017 Bath station platform expansions (and others I may have missed). All of them were done as preparation for the electrification that is yet to arrive, so it would be a case of just putting up the OHLE and power supply.

Likewise Oxford to Bicester was also done as part of the recent upgrade. On its own this makes no sense but should be included as part of a scheme covering Chiltern lines and EWR to Bletchley.

It should be fairly easy to dust off the plans for the additional work required to some bridges between Bicester and Bletchley (which are not now included in the EWR2 scheme following descoping). If an additional grid feeder is required it could maybe shared with HS2 and overall it ought to be one of the cheaper schemes to progress.

 

[AM9]

I think you’re spot on there, not just for Chiltern but for all TOC’s running into London. Unfortunately I suspect we’re in for bi-modes rather than more wires, so they can be clean in London and b*****s to the rest of the country.

Without getting into yet another London vs elsewhere debate, the issue of emissions in the London area is much greater than every other conurbation in the UK. Comparing any two adjacent city pairs (e.g. Liverpool-Manchester, Manchester-Leeds, Sheffield Leeds etc., London's continuous built-up area itself is larger than any of them, (and those other conurbations have large areas of open countryside/high ground between their centres). London E-W is over 40miles of urban area, with only parks and commons each no bigger than 1/2 mile across. Even N-S, itis mostly over 30 miles. Whereas the foothills of the Pennines to Liverpool's waterfront is only 40 miles with about 15 miles of Chat Moss in the middle. Heavy pollution in the London Metropolitan area has nowhere to go, so it is a much more urgent matter to keep emissions throughout the region down.

 

[popeter45]

Bromsgrove to Bristol Parkway Via Cheltenham would be a good shout
Would provide a very useful bridge between the Norths Electrified Lines and the GWML Electrification

 

[GRALISTAIR]

Without hesitation the biggest no-Brainer for me is Oxenholme to Windermere. Some work already done. High speed not needed so no robust gantries so looks pretty in a National Park. For 10 miles of sparks you eliminate a huge amount of diesel under the wires.

 

[The Ham]

Electrification to Yeovil, could significantly reduce the number of DMU's. Especially if 1 train per two hours required a cross platform change to a DMU to Exeter with the other 1 train per two hours could remain as a DMU between London and Exeter.

Even if all the through diesel trains were 10 coach trains, you'd need 9*159's and 9*158's, whilst with the shuttle services between Exeter and Yeovil with 6 coach trains you'd need a further 7*159's.

However that would be quite a lot of a capacity increase over the Western section of the line but roughly halves the number of 159's required.

 

[VT 390]

I would say the Birmingham Snow Hill lines should be quite high priority to electrify. This is because it is a busy commuter route in to central Birmingham and would help a lot with improving air quality in Birmingham as well as freeing up a good amount of goo quality diesel trains for use elsewhere replacing older stock.
Also I think routes that are extensions or branches which are already electrified should be done next, this would include routes such as Hurst Green to Uckfield and Oxenholme to Windermere because this would remove large amounts of diesel running over electrified routes whilst keeping through services.

 

[The Ham]

I would say the Birmingham Snow Hill lines should be quite high priority to electrify. This is because it is a busy commuter route in to central Birmingham and would help a lot with improving air quality in Birmingham as well as freeing up a good amount of goo quality diesel trains for use elsewhere replacing older stock.
Also I think routes that are extensions or branches which are already electrified should be done next, this would include routes such as Hurst Green to Uckfield and Oxenholme to Windermere because this would remove large amounts of diesel running over electrified routes whilst keeping through services.

Birmingham would be a good place to wire up, especially as if you keep stirring South East you could also connect through to Oxford and then allow XC services from the South Coast to Manchester to switch to dual voltage trains.

 

[daodao]

There is no point in electrifying Didcot to Oxford until EWR and Oxford-Coventry are also electrified, as it would only benefit 1 tph (1 of the 2 fast trains per hour from Paddington, the other continues to Worcester and beyond).

 

[NoMorePacers]

There is no point in electrifying Didcot to Oxford until EWR and Oxford-Coventry are also electrified, as it would only benefit 1 tph (1 of the 2 fast trains per hour from Paddington, the other continues to Worcester and beyond).

Extending the London-Didcot service back to Oxford like it did in the Turbo days perhaps?

 

[VT 390]

Birmingham would be a good place to wire up, especially as if you keep stirring South East you could also connect through to Oxford and then allow XC services from the South Coast to Manchester to switch to dual voltage trains.

Yes I was also thinking that if the Snow Hill lines were done it could start off other routes starting with Chiltern towards Banbury and then either towards Marylebone and Oxford.

 

[VT 390]

There is no point in electrifying Didcot to Oxford until EWR and Oxford-Coventry are also electrified, as it would only benefit 1 tph (1 of the 2 fast trains per hour from Paddington, the other continues to Worcester and beyond).

I do agree that Oxford should wait until any proposed remodelling is done (I think there are some plans to do so) but it would benefit more services than just 1tph as the Worcester service is a bi-mode so could still use the wires to Oxford and the Didcot to Oxford shuttles could be operated by 387's and possible rejoined on to the Paddington to Didcot stopping services.

 

[Ianno87]

From the MML electrification thread:



The grapevines suggest that Government is keen, and IMHO we will see some announcements this year to a) restart some (but not necessarily all) of the ‘paused’ schemes, and b) kick off studies into other proposals. All will make good news, particularly with the climate summit coming later in the year, and the inevitable round of protests from extinction rebellion etc over the summer. So what would you do, and, more importantly why?

My complete guesses for each are:

a) Restarting paused schemes:
Market Harboro’ (pretty much ready to go, quick win)
Didcot - Oxford (most of the hard work is already done, quick to restart, likely to be first to finish)
Stalybridge - Manchester Vic (in the NW, relatively advanced, quite a few services would benefit)
Windermere (in the North, good politically, easy and cheap to do, potential for a lot of diesel mileage to be removed)
Not sure about Bristol - Thingley/Filton. Possibly, if only to give something to the ‘South West’

All that will take around 3-5 years to complete given a quick ‘go’ decision. Possessions would be the key issue.

Lostock Jn - Wigan was also paused, though the changes to service patterns and planned use of 769s on the route may have kiboshed it for the time being.

Also the Windsor/Henley/Marlow branches. Doubt they'd be a priority at the moment.

 

[The Planner]

Would agree with the Snow Hill lines. Chiltern itself south of Banbury is bound to have some robust challenges from the locals of ugly OLE to overcome.

 

[davetheguard]

There is no point in electrifying Didcot to Oxford until EWR and Oxford-Coventry are also electrified, as it would only benefit 1 tph (1 of the 2 fast trains per hour from Paddington, the other continues to Worcester and beyond).

I'm not sure I understand this assertion.

Surely both fast trains an hour from Paddington to Oxford are operated by bi-modes, so both would benefit from the extra "under the wires" mileage; the fact that one of those trains continues on to Worcester is irrelevant. In addition, the Didcot to Oxford Turbo DMU shuttle would be replaced by extending the half hourly Paddington to Didcot EMU stoppers to their natural -and traditional- terminus at Oxford; with the added benefit of restoring direct trains all day from places like Goring & Pangbourne etc. to Oxford.

I'd add Reading to Basingstoke, and the surely cheap to do Windsor & Henley on Thames branches too. If Chiltern were to be electrified then perhaps the Greenford branch and the short stretch to Northolt Jcn. as well, to tie the two routes together.

 

[hwl]

I do agree that Oxford should wait until any proposed remodelling is done (I think there are some plans to do so) but it would benefit more services than just 1tph as the Worcester service is a bi-mode so could still use the wires to Oxford and the Didcot to Oxford shuttles could be operated by 387's and possible rejoined on to the Paddington to Didcot stopping services.

Phase 1 of remodelling has been done and Oxford is electrification ready.
Further work future work (unfunded) is effectively just adding further tracks to the west but provision for that is included in the electrification design.

 

[Whistler40145]

Top of my list for electrification would be from Deansgate to Liverpool South Parkway via Warrington Central

 

[Clip]

Chiltern and indeed London needs it.