can public transport ever recover from COVID-19

[158756]

Quite.

This is the point forgotten by most people. Passenger usage has apparently doubled since privatisation. We weren't contemplating massive reductions then, and we shouldn't let the powers that beget away with doing so now, if things drop back a bit.

The costs have increased massively as well, so despite increased passenger numbers subsidies are much higher than at privatisation. And those increasing passenger numbers have often come with more frequent services - there are massive reductions which can be made just to return to the service levels of 10 or 20 years ago.

Also, whilst passenger numbers may have been increasing on the national rail network, the same cannot be said for buses or for many light rail systems.

 

[yorksrob]

The costs have increased massively as well, so despite increased passenger numbers subsidies are much higher than at privatisation. And those increasing passenger numbers have often come with more frequent services - there are massive reductions which can be made just to return to the service levels of 10 or 20 years ago.

Also, whilst passenger numbers may have been increasing on the national rail network, the same cannot be said for buses or for many light rail systems.

Interestingly, I doubt that service frequencies have increased that much on most of the old NSE area, yet I suspect that this will have one of the largest drops in numbers (starting from a very high base of course). I wonder how much scope there would be to reduce frequencies in these areas. I suspect not a vast amount.

In a lot of areas on the old Regional Railway, frequencies have increased, and passenger numbers have increased accordingly. However these are the services that seem to be recovering in my experience, so I would be wary of cutting such frequencies back.

 

[BostonGeorge]

TfL are considering offering free travel into the capital to stimulate the economy.

https://www.itv.com/news/london/202...the-capital-to-encourage-public-transport-use

Transport bosses are considering offering Londoners a free trip into the capital in an attempt to stimulate the economy.

The First Ride Free scheme, deemed the public travel equivalent to the Eat Out to Help Out initiative rolled out nationwide during August, is being considered by Transport for London (TfL).

The scheme could offer free tickets for trains, buses and the Tube to members of the public who have not gone into central London since the coronavirus pandemic....

 

[carlberry]

TfL are considering offering free travel into the capital to stimulate the economy.

https://www.itv.com/news/london/202...the-capital-to-encourage-public-transport-use

That'll be like the free travel that they offered during lockdown that Boris put a stop to!

 

[oscarthecat92]

Patronage seemed to be picking up today on the Airedale line into Leeds, busy Saturday with almost all seating bays occupied on the way into Leeds on the 333, and the same on the way back on the 331. Fewer annoying 'out of use' signs on the seats also.

Also at Saltaire station noticed tap in and tap out smartcard readers have been installed - is this to make way for flexible season tickets to try and get some of the commuters back?

 

[MikeWM]

Currently on the 2110 Norwich-Cambridge, which isn’t far off being full (and is rather boistrous!) Reminds me of taking this service on Saturday March 14th, when it was packed (and boistrous!) too. This is probably the busiest train I’ve caught since then.

The Ely -> Norwich I caught earlier this afternoon was back to fairly normal loadings too.

If we can get London and commuters (and especially London commuters) back somehow, I think the railway is looking a lot more positive than it did a couple of months back.

 

[Bletchleyite]

If we can get London and commuters (and especially London commuters) back somehow, I think the railway is looking a lot more positive than it did a couple of months back.

It'd be fine if we didn't get them all back. An all week Saturday timetable (as you mostly get outside the SE) is a heck of a lot cheaper to operate than a peaky weekday one.

 

[Ianno87]

Currently on the 2110 Norwich-Cambridge, which isn’t far off being full (and is rather boistrous!) Reminds me of taking this service on Saturday March 14th, when it was packed (and boistrous!) too. This is probably the busiest train I’ve caught since then.

The Ely -> Norwich I caught earlier this afternoon was back to fairly normal loadings too.

Numbers are inflated today with Ipswich-Norwich being blocked, so Norwich-London passengers heading via Cambridge.

 

[MikeWM]

Numbers are inflated today with Ipswich-Norwich being blocked, so Norwich-London passengers heading via Cambridge.

Yes, that may well have been the case this afternoon. I don’t think most of the people on here now are going that far though, its a far too boozy/singing train for that!

 

[NorthOxonian]

Yes, that may well have been the case this afternoon. I don’t think most of the people on here now are going that far though, its a far too boozy/singing train for that!

While perhaps not the best thing for social distancing, I'm heartened to hear such demand is returning to normal. My local bus company are so confident that people are coming back out in droves to socialise that they've actually reintroduced their Night Bus service between Newcastle and Durham.

 

[MikeWM]

While perhaps not the best thing for social distancing, I'm heartened to hear such demand is returning to normal.

Very much the kind of thing that would have irritated me in more 'normal' times, but it was quite heartening to see people just getting on and enjoying themselves.

Nightlife in Norwich (at least up until around 9, when I caught the train) looked vibrant and pretty 'normal' too.

 

[david1212]

However it comes about so long as the risk of contracting and transmitting Covid-19 or anything it mutates into either directly or from touching a contaminated item or surface is at such a low level that life can return to ' old normal ' I would expect public transport usage to return the ' old normal ' too with one exception and one proviso.

The exception is mid and long distance daily commuting. While individual circumstances will vary overall I expect a big decline. However given how ridiculously cheap many season tickets are if train operators can remove some services financially they may well actually gain.

The proviso is overall the amount of money in circulation for discretionary travel.

 

[Meerkat]

What happened to Rail usage in the last few recessions; I’m assuming a recession is a given?

 

[philosopher]

The exception is mid and long distance daily commuting. While individual circumstances will vary overall I expect a big decline. However given how ridiculously cheap many season tickets are if train operators can remove some services financially they may well actually gain.

I actually think long distance commuting could increase. Commuting five days a week from say Birmingham or Bristol to London five days a week is probably too much for most people. However if they only commute to their office one or twice a week and work from home the other days, they may find it acceptable.

 

[david1212]

I actually think long distance commuting could increase. Commuting five days a week from say Birmingham or Bristol to London five days a week is probably too much for most people. However if they only commute to their office one or twice a week and work from home the other days, they may find it acceptable.

Put like that I agree.

I was considering the number travelling and hence train capacity required per day rather than the number who would put their hand up to ' do you commute by train more than ( say ) 50 miles at least once most weeks ' ?

 

[telstarbox]

What happened to Rail usage in the last few recessions; I’m assuming a recession is a given?

There was a very slight dip in the 2009-2010 passenger year, but otherwise growth in the few years either side.

Rail transport in Great Britain - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[LAX54]

Transport could get back to nomal in a few weeks, currently it is just people staying at home, that reduces numbers, it still a novelty at the moment, but once people start to relax, and do other things whilst at home, and productivity reduces, then they will be toild to come back to the office.
Why we not travelling, because we are still pandering to the Media / Government 'Fear Factor' and letting the virus control us, rather than us control the virus, will be interesting to see if they ever say actually how many died of C19, and not just had a positive test, seems if you had a heart attack or shot by an AK47, if you had a positve test in the previous 28 days, that is what it went down to !

 

[GodAtum]

Interesting program in BBC news tonight. They were saying TOCs are trying to do a lot to build confidence in commuters to encourage them back.
But I think that’s false. I reckon most commuters are happy to take trains but would never tell their boss that. People aren’t returning because they don’t want to! It’s very simple ... politicians don’t seem to understand that’

 

[SuperNova]

Interesting program in BBC news tonight. They were saying TOCs are trying to do a lot to build confidence in commuters to encourage them back.
But I think that’s false. I reckon most commuters are happy to take trains but would never tell their boss that. People aren’t returning because they don’t want to! It’s very simple ... politicians don’t seem to understand that’

People aren't returning because social distancing means offices aren't operating anywhere near capacity. Plenty of companies are allowing people to go in if they wish to, with limited capacity. As my friend said to me, I'll go in if those I get on with are in, but if not I'll keep working at home... he goes in once a week when there's a few others about.

As soon as companies say, right you need to return to the office, they will have to - albeit there will be more flexibility and home working in the future - which is why flexi-season tickets are hugely important.

 

[Meerkat]

I know I keep repeating myself but lifts lifts lifts.
In the cities most offices rely on lifts, if social distancing says you can only get low single fingers in each lift how are you going to get everyone in and out? A bigger problem than trains because it is enforceable, so the employer/building manager will have to enforce it. I haven’t heard whether anyone is researching the risk - very short journeys vs proximity and limited ventilation.
ps I was wondering about fire evacuation tests - you legally have to do them, but they are about as non-distanced as you can get!

 

[Ianno87]

I know I keep repeating myself but lifts lifts lifts.
In the cities most offices rely on lifts, if social distancing says you can only get low single fingers in each lift how are you going to get everyone in and out? A bigger problem than trains because it is enforceable, so the employer/building manager will have to enforce it. I haven’t heard whether anyone is researching the risk - very short journeys vs proximity and limited ventilation.
ps I was wondering about fire evacuation tests - you legally have to do them, but they are about as non-distanced as you can get!

Our (small, three storey) office has implemented a "lift up, stairs down" policy.

Although at One Canada Square, that'll be a challenge (although self-enforcing whilst the office space itself is only being used to 20% capacity anyway)

 

[AdamWW]

I know I keep repeating myself but lifts lifts lifts.
In the cities most offices rely on lifts, if social distancing says you can only get low single fingers in each lift how are you going to get everyone in and out? A bigger problem than trains because it is enforceable, so the employer/building manager will have to enforce it. I haven’t heard whether anyone is researching the risk - very short journeys vs proximity and limited ventilation.
ps I was wondering about fire evacuation tests - you legally have to do them, but they are about as non-distanced as you can get!

At least in an evacuation you don't use lifts...

 

[yorksrob]

To be fair, I don't think that most UK cities have that many high rise office blocks - certainly not as many as London.

I get the feeling around 4 - 5 storeys is normal.

 

[Andy Pacer]

Buses a lot busier this week (from what I've seen/driven) then they have been for months.

 

[DB]

I know I keep repeating myself but lifts lifts lifts.
In the cities most offices rely on lifts, if social distancing says you can only get low single fingers in each lift how are you going to get everyone in and out? A bigger problem than trains because it is enforceable, so the employer/building manager will have to enforce it. I haven’t heard whether anyone is researching the risk - very short journeys vs proximity and limited ventilation.
ps I was wondering about fire evacuation tests - you legally have to do them, but they are about as non-distanced as you can get!

Depends what rules we are expected to be following this week!

The original was within 2m for at least 15m, which obviously wouldn't apply to a lift. Whether this has officialy morphed into within 2m for at least 1 second I don't know, although many are treating it as if it has.

 

[Andy Pacer]

Interesting program in BBC news tonight. They were saying TOCs are trying to do a lot to build confidence in commuters to encourage them back.
But I think that’s false. I reckon most commuters are happy to take trains but would never tell their boss that. People aren’t returning because they don’t want to! It’s very simple ... politicians don’t seem to understand that’

Agreed, the media doesn't seem to have cottoned on that people may just be happy working at home (or Furlough)and want to string it out!

 

[DB]

Agreed, the media doesn't seem to have cottoned on that people may just be happy working at home (or Furlough)and want to string it out!

I also haven't seen much evidence of TOCs trying to encourage people back. Some are being less hostile than they were previously (e.g. Northern), but some (XC) are sitll making it such hassle to travel that many won't bother.

 

[Jamesrob637]

I also haven't seen much evidence of TOCs trying to encourage people back. Some are being less hostile than they were previously (e.g. Northern), but some (XC) are sitll making it such hassle to travel that many won't bother.

Northern have changed their tune in terms of the message but they have such a stigma about running 2-coach trains even in the peak, that this scares people off just in itself. Some routes such as Hazel Grove to Blackpool North via Manchester, Bolton and Preston are now 6-car the entire day, however the launch of the new trains was so soft even pre-COVID that it is dependent on the good folk of the area to convey the message.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Depends what rules we are expected to be following this week!

The original was within 2m for at least 15m, which obviously wouldn't apply to a lift. Whether this has officialy morphed into within 2m for at least 1 second I don't know, although many are treating it as if it has.

2m for at least 15 minutes or 1m for 1 minute - lifts would mostly kick in the latter.

 

[Skimpot flyer]

At Brighton station this morning, it was refreshing to see the blue tape blocking every alternate gate on the gateline has been removed. Also, the reminder poster re face coverings now mentions exemptions and the fact that some such conditions are non-visible.
Were you really likely to pass on or contract coronavirus in the tiny period of time in which you and a fellow passenger passed through adjacent gates?