England's new three-tier lockdown system

[DB]

In terms of what some places are doing with cheap clearly loss leading food, my issue isn't that they are doing it. It is the attitude. As I said yesterday the fact that guy tried to argue he wasn't serving free food so people could pay for booze is an utter joke and I am sure he wasn't able to make that claim with a straight face. People like that I have an issue with. If a business is upfront and honest and lays it out buy saying they are offering food as a way to still stay open, even though they fully expect people to drink and not eat the food etc etc, then I'd have a lot more respect for them.

Why would anyone admit to it? It would immediately give the local authority a stick to beat them with.

 

[kristiang85]

In terms of what some places are doing with cheap clearly loss leading food, my issue isn't that they are doing it. It is the attitude. As I said yesterday the fact that guy tried to argue he wasn't serving free food so people could pay for booze is an utter joke and I am sure he wasn't able to make that claim with a straight face. People like that I have an issue with. If a business is upfront and honest and lays it out buy saying they are offering food as a way to still stay open, even though they fully expect people to drink and not eat the food etc etc, then I'd have a lot more respect for them.

But people desperate enough for a pint will still go into a Wetherspoons and order the cheapest meal there (which I think must be around £2-3), and that will be OK. Why should the small pubs be made to suffer?

It's a terrible rule. Either shut the pubs totally and give them financial support, or look at the statistics that show that hospitality venues are a tiny generator of spread in comparison to everything else, and let them stay open (and clamp down hard on people who abuse it).

 

[yorksrob]

In terms of what some places are doing with cheap clearly loss leading food, my issue isn't that they are doing it. It is the attitude. As I said yesterday the fact that guy tried to argue he wasn't serving free food so people could pay for booze is an utter joke and I am sure he wasn't able to make that claim with a straight face. People like that I have an issue with. If a business is upfront and honest and lays it out buy saying they are offering food as a way to still stay open, even though they fully expect people to drink and not eat the food etc etc, then I'd have a lot more respect for them.

Whereas for me, it's the attitude that I agree with. I'm not fussed about what commercial decisions the landlord is trying to make, it's the fact that he is deliberately undermining an unjustifiable and immoral law that I agree with.

 

[duncanp]

And I see that Professor Pantsdown Ferguson is up to his usual tricks again today, trying to scare us all into thinking that the NHS is about to be overwhelmed.

The NHS was never overwhelmed in March, so there is no reason to suppose that it will be now.

No doubt Professor Pantsdown Ferguson would like all areas of England to move to Tier 3 with immediate effect for at least the next 6 months, and for all pubs and bars to be closed indefinitely until there is a vaccine.

Schools may have to close to older pupils to curb virus spread, Prof Ferguson warns

Ministers may be forced to close schools to older children if coronavirus cases continue to increase at the current rate, a scientist has warned.

www.telegraph.co.uk

The NHS will be unable to cope if coronavirus cases continue to increase at the present rate as the UK is a month away from hospitalisations topping the numbers seen during the peak in March, a leading scientist has warned.

Professor Neil Ferguson, whose modelling led to the original lockdown in March, said that while infections among 18 to 21-year-olds were falling, they were continuing to rise in other age groups.

"Unfortunately, in every other age group case numbers continue to rise at about the same rate they were. There are little hints of slowing, for instance in the North East of England, but we are not seeing the sort of slowing that we really need to to get on top of this," he told the BBC Radio 4 Today programme.

"It is a worrying situation. We now have 8,000 people in hospital with Covid. That is about a third of the level we were at the peak of the pandemic in March.

"If the rate of growth continues as it is, it means that in a month's time we will above that peak level in March and that is probably unsustainable.

"We are in a critical time right now. The health system will not be able to cope with this rate of growth for much longer."

 

[big_rig]

Goodness. Is there any other profession (beyond politician where lying is part of the job spec) which has such brazen, shameless people in it? After how many failed predictions and warnings do these people get the sack? I am familiar with the rules around SPADs and people being shown the door, or being competent or not at say train planning and timetabling, but surely never before has there been a field (epidemiology) where the consequences of failure are simultaneously so high for society and so low for the individual in post.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Goodness. Is there any other profession (beyond politician where lying is part of the job spec) which has such brazen, shameless people in it? After how many failed predictions and warnings do these people get the sack? I am familiar with the rules around SPADs and people being shown the door, or being competent or not at say train planning and timetabling, but surely never before has there been a field (epidemiology) where the consequences of failure are simultaneously so high for society and so low for the individual in post.

It's not a precise science, it's a model. Politicians make laws, and it's them who should be in receipt of the ire.

 

[yorksrob]

I shall henceforth be referring to that bunch of cretins in London (a.k.a the Government) as "the clown circus"

 

[DelayRepay]

I shall henceforth be referring to that bunch of cretins in London (a.k.a the Government) as "the clown circus"

I find your comparison offensive. On behalf of circus entertainers everywhere, I request an apology.

 

[yorksrob]

I find your comparison offensive. On behalf of circus entertainers everywhere, I request an apology.

Duly acknowledged.

The circus industry has my full apologies

 

[Bletchleyite]

I shall henceforth be referring to that bunch of cretins in London (a.k.a the Government) as "the clown circus"

I don't like to read the junk that is the Daily Star (though it does have going for it that it isn't the Scum), but I must admit to finding it quite amusing and apt the way they keep portraying Bozza and Hancock as "Bozo and Coco" on the front page.

Edit, add "Knobo" for Cummings

 

[Peter Sarf]

And I see that Professor Pantsdown Ferguson is up to his usual tricks again today, trying to scare us all into thinking that the NHS is about to be overwhelmed.

The NHS was never overwhelmed in March, so there is no reason to suppose that it will be now.

No doubt Professor Pantsdown Ferguson would like all areas of England to move to Tier 3 with immediate effect for at least the next 6 months, and for all pubs and bars to be closed indefinitely until there is a vaccine.

Schools may have to close to older pupils to curb virus spread, Prof Ferguson warns

Ministers may be forced to close schools to older children if coronavirus cases continue to increase at the current rate, a scientist has warned.

www.telegraph.co.uk

You actually believe the NHS was not overwhelmed earlier this year ?. You are very very wrong.

But of course the expensive measures that most of the world are taking are for what ?. Not every country is going for a tiered approach but they are mostly doing something expensive. Of course nothing is going to work if enough people want to break the rules. It is just going to get worse for those people who are sticking to the rules. So it probably is all a waste of money. Just stay out of my hospital when I need it.

Does anyone else here think Covid-19 is the problem ?.

 

[yorkie]

You actually believe the NHS was not overwhelmed earlier this year ?. You are very very wrong.

how do you define overwhelmed? can you provide a citation to back up your claim?

This from 28 April, after the peak had passed, suggests otherwise:

https://www.ft.com/content/256d8849-3b23-4e51-b70c-78ebbd064a78

When Boris Johnson issued a stay-at-home order to Britons last month, he had one overriding aim: to protect the UK’s state-funded NHS from being overwhelmed by coronavirus cases....

... the NHS still has hundreds of empty critical care beds and has not been forced to turn away patients it could have helped. ...

“We were worried the first phase would be a lot worse than it has proved to be . . . ICUs haven’t been overwhelmed, although some of them got pretty close to full and in parts of London they had to move patients [to other hospitals],” said Dr Higginson, vice-president of the Royal College of Emergency Medicine.

But of course the expensive measures that most of the world are taking are for what ?. Not every country is going for a tiered approach but they are mostly doing something expensive. Of course nothing is going to work if enough people want to break the rules. It is just going to get worse for those people who are sticking to the rules. So it probably is all a waste of money. Just stay out of my hospital when I need it.

*sigh* placing blame on people for being human us not helpful; the virus will spread and cannot be eliminated.

Does anyone else here think Covid-19 is the problem ?.

Yes but for most people, the measures taken are more of a 'problem'.

 

[Domh245]

But of course the expensive measures that most of the world are taking are for what ?. Not every country is going for a tiered approach but they are mostly doing something expensive.

It does feel that every country has cornered themselves and others. The scale of response was certainly appropriate at the beginning when we had little understanding about the severity of the disease or treatments for it, however as we've improved our understanding, we've not altered our response at all. Do we do widespread surveillance testing and report daily case numbers to the WHO for influenza? Of course we don't, hell, the best we do is estimate our annual influenza cases in retrospect using a computer model to fit excess deaths!

The worst bit is, nobody seems prepared to blink, my hope is that a 'breakthrough' moment (eg vaccine authorisation) will allow governments to row back from this utter nonsense

Does anyone else here think Covid-19 is the problem ?

My (rather blunt) opinion is that the desire to prevent covid deaths at all costs is the problem

 

[yorksrob]

I don't like to read the junk that is the Daily Star (though it does have going for it that it isn't the Scum), but I must admit to finding it quite amusing and apt the way they keep portraying Bozza and Hancock as "Bozo and Coco" on the front page.

Edit, add "Knobo" for Cummings

"Ooh ah, Daily Star" as they say

I was having an angry moment earlier on. It has now passed, although I still disagree strongly with the tier 3 restrictions

 

[Peter Sarf]

how do you define overwhelmed? can you provide a citation to back up your claim?

*sigh* placing blame on people for being human us not helpful; the virus will spread and cannot be eliminated.



Yes but for most people, the measures taken are more of a 'problem'.

Well my partners private hospital was the busiest it has ever been apparently. Trying to cover as much non-Covid-19 work for the NHS as it could.

We saw almost empty A&E waiting rooms (I personally did) presumably as people stayed away. But the reality was that there was little resource behind to cater as this was all turned over to Covid-19 treatments. The overflow "Nightingale" hospitals were set up and hardly used - but they were set up. But it seems there was not adequate critical care equipment (ventilators) for these to be very effective anyway. We also saw hospitals emptied of as many patients as possible. We all saw how many elderly people were farmed out to care homes and the consequent furor that caused.

Yes the measures being taken are terrible. For many people they are very serious. But the alternative is swamped hospitals that cannot give care to an otherwise healthy person who has had an accident.

I do not think national governments would allow the loss of huge amounts of tax revenue, run up huge national debt and alienate the electorate for nothing.

It does feel that every country has cornered themselves and others. The scale of response was certainly appropriate at the beginning when we had little understanding about the severity of the disease or treatments for it, however as we've improved our understanding, we've not altered our response at all. Do we do widespread surveillance testing and report daily case numbers to the WHO for influenza? Of course we don't, hell, the best we do is estimate our annual influenza cases in retrospect using a computer model to fit excess deaths!

The thing is that, if left to spread, Covid-19 stands to be a lot more serious than influenza. I think it stands to spread faster over winter (as flu does) than it did in March 2020. We can expect that it will have less impact as the years go by and certainy each summer.

The worst bit is, nobody seems prepared to blink, my hope is that a 'breakthrough' moment (eg vaccine authorisation) will allow governments to row back from this utter nonsense

Yes. It is a race between national bankruptcy, vaccination, a better idea of treatments and maybe a shortage of people left alive that need critical care.

My (rather blunt) opinion is that the desire to prevent covid deaths at all costs is the problem

It is not the number of deaths that is the real problem. Otherwise the NHS would not have shoved so many old people back into care homes. It is the overwhelming number of people requiring critical care that was the problem. The NHS was swamped. To cope the NHS cancelled a lot of normal preventative work - outpatients. The NHS also cancelled a lot of operations. Without the lockdown things would have got so bad that people would have been fighting to get into hospital - as in civil unrest. I would add that there is a limit on how many ventilators there are available.

 

[Yew]

I think it stands to spread faster over winter (as flu does) than it did in March 2020.

I don't believe there is any real evidence to support that, certainly the current growth rates are lower.

 

[Peter Sarf]

I don't believe there is any real evidence to support that, certainly the current growth rates are lower.

I expect the current growth rates are lower and hope they stay that way. The difference now (compared to March 2020) is that we now have a lockdown or tiers so would expect the growth rate to be curtailed.

 

[Richard Scott]

I expect the current growth rates are lower and hope they stay that way. The difference now (compared to March 2020) is that we now have a lockdown or tiers so would expect the growth rate to be curtailed.

That's making the assumption that those actions work, looking increasingly likely that they have minimal affect. May cause virus to spread slightly more slowly at best.

 

[JonathanH]

Do we do widespread surveillance testing and report daily case numbers to the WHO for influenza? Of course we don't, hell, the best we do is estimate our annual influenza cases in retrospect using a computer model to fit excess deaths!

Not really my place to comment in this part of the forum but, as a factual point, there is actually quite a bit of surveillance of influenza and other respiratory viruses (although since the start of October reporting has been combined with surveillance of Covid-19). This is the latest weekly 77-page report.
https://assets.publishing.service.g.../Weekly_Flu_and_COVID-19_report_w43_FINAL.pdf

The prevalence of influenza appears to be low at present but I agree that it seems unlikely it is going to get a daily slot in the news even if it increases.

Until the end of September, they used to have surveillance of influenza on its own.
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/weekly-national-flu-reports-2019-to-2020-season

 

[HSTEd]

Yes the measures being taken are terrible. For many people they are very serious. But the alternative is swamped hospitals that cannot give care to an otherwise healthy person who has had an accident.

Even if triage was to completely collapse, the fact is that thanks to exponentials being what they are, there would only be a matter of a handful of weeks where the hospitals were completely swamped.
(Especially if a downslope lockdown was used).

The number of casualties resulting from this would be small compared to the number of dead from coronavirus.

 

[Bikeman78]

It does feel that every country has cornered themselves and others. The scale of response was certainly appropriate at the beginning when we had little understanding about the severity of the disease or treatments for it, however as we've improved our understanding, we've not altered our response at all. Do we do widespread surveillance testing and report daily case numbers to the WHO for influenza? Of course we don't, hell, the best we do is estimate our annual influenza cases in retrospect using a computer model to fit excess deaths!

The worst bit is, nobody seems prepared to blink, my hope is that a 'breakthrough' moment (eg vaccine authorisation) will allow governments to row back from this utter nonsense



My (rather blunt) opinion is that the desire to prevent covid deaths at all costs is the problem

At the risk of being equally blunt, 1700 people die every day, regardless of Covid. Do we cart all of them to hospital and try to keep them alive for a few extra days? For some people, a cold is enough to finish them off. I expect plenty of them will die at home or in a care home.

 

[DB]

At the risk of being equally blunt, 1700 people die every day, regardless of Covid. Do we cart all of them to hospital and try to keep them alive for a few extra days? For some people, a cold is enough to finish them off. I expect plenty of them will die at home or in a care home.

Indeed.

And this xx number of 'lives saved' which the government and media like to trot out is misleading as well - given the profile of Covid fatalities, in many case what this actually means is 'death delayed by a month or two' as many of these people are very elderly and seriously ill anyway, so with or without Covid have a very short life expectancy.

 

[duncanp]

Can't help laughing at the comments section of one paper (The Telegraph) which referred to our favourite loctivist professor as Professor Neil Fearguson.

Quite appropriate really, as all his statements and predictions have tended to be wide of the mark by a considerable margin, and seem to designed to frighten the population into doing what he thinks appropriate.

Witness his latest ramblings about whole year groups having to be sent home from school.

 

[317 forever]

The advice does seem to be a bit vague, especially regarding non-essential travel from and very high risk area and vice-versa.

The official guidance on Gov.UK for travel to and from a very high risk area states 'you should try to avoid travelling outside the very high alert level area you are in or entering a very high alert level area, other than for things like work, education or youth services, to meet caring responsibilities or if you are travelling through as part of a longer journey'. Basically whilst it is advising you not to take non-essential travel, it is also implying that it is not illegal to do so.

This in itself creates anomalies. I reached a position where I was required to travel into Manchester 5 times a week for work, but advised not to travel to Blackpool or Preston for leisure despite their lower infection rates than Manchester. I therefore decided it was reasonable to travel to Blackpool for a day out in the area.

 

[DJH1971]

This in itself creates anomalies. I reached a position where I was required to travel into Manchester 5 times a week for work, but advised not to travel to Blackpool or Preston for leisure despite their lower infection rates than Manchester. I therefore decided it was reasonable to travel to Blackpool for a day out in the area.

I am booked on a trip from Manchester Piccadilly to London Euston on 27/11/2020.

I was advised when when I went to pick up the tickets 'it depends whether we go into Tier 3' and you will not be allowed to travel, and if you are going to travel for work purposes you will be stopped and questioned by the BTP and asked who you are going to see and who your manager is.

Again, this appears to be contradictory to the guidance regarding travel to and from a Tier 3 area which states that we advise travel from non-essential purposes, it is not a criminal offence to do so.

 

[317 forever]

I certainly can see a "tier 4" of basically what we had in March, yes, if numbers don't come down. Indeed, I would be very surprised not to see that.

I think we will by early January if not sooner. As the spread of Covid may well be worse in the colder weather, we could have a similar lockdown to April, with limited additional amenities open such as schools and non-essential retail.

With Boris basically being libertarian and Rishi wanting to preserve some economic activity, they may hold off from a heavy lockdown before Christmas.

I am booked on a trip from Manchester Piccadilly to London Euston on 27/11/2020.

I was advised when when I went to pick up the tickets 'it depends whether we go into Tier 3' and you will not be allowed to travel, and if you are going to travel for work purposes you will be stopped and questioned by the BTP and asked who you are going to see and who your manager is.

Again, this appears to be contradictory to the guidance regarding travel to and from a Tier 3 area which states that we advise travel from non-essential purposes, it is not a criminal offence to do so.

It was poor that they gave you such misleading and misguided information. I do admit that I booked my tickets to Blackpool online as it would have been kind-of obvious that this was not essential travel.

 

[DJH1971]

I think we will by early January if not sooner. As the spread of Covid may well be worse in the colder weather, we could have a similar lockdown to April, with limited additional amenities open such as schools and non-essential retail.

With Boris basically being libertarian and Rishi wanting to preserve some economic activity, they may hold off from a heavy lockdown before Christmas.



It was poor that they gave you such misleading and misguided information. I do admit that I booked my tickets to Blackpool online as it would have been kind-of obvious that this was not essential travel.

Still planning to go as non-essential travel is not illegal (but advised against). Not sure if I will be prosecuted by the BTP if stopped, but as I keep reiterating this appears to be advisory and not illegal.

 

[Reliablebeam]

Sat in a restaurant in SW London*. Except for the facemasks you would not know anything is wrong and I'm not sure Sadiq's Tier 2 is being obeyed.... And the luvvies on the next table are the type provably telling pollsters they love lockdown. On the other hand am currently debating what on earth to do as regards seeing family in Wales at Christmas. Do I risk an interrogation by the BTP if I get caught in a Drakeford?

* I am Thames pathing - noticed a Thameside house decorated with CLC line stuff...

 

[yorkie]

I was advised when when I went to pick up the tickets ...

by a train company employee at a ticket office? I'd take most things they say with caution as they cannot be relied upon to provide accurate information

 

[DJH1971]

by a train company employee at a ticket office? I'd take most things they say with caution as they cannot be relied upon to provide accurate information

Fair comment