To get the same from solar you’d need to cover an area 33x the size of the City of London.
I make it 36 City of Londons, but I guess that’s splitting hairs!
To get the same from solar you’d need to cover an area 33x the size of the City of London.
If it's a choice between shade and nuclear power stations at ludicrous prices, I know my preferencePerhaps, but myself I would honestly prefer transparent canopies to solar panel ones.
It is rare that we need shade in Britain, but underneath a roof can get quite dim and dingy sometimes.
provide 20-25% of their peak power,
Do you have a source for this? I find it a little hard to believe!I make it 36 City of Londons, but I guess that’s splitting hairs!
Peak power is not a relevant parameter in this case.You are mistaken (or out of date). Modern solar panels are pretty efficient, even in Winter, and provide 20-25% of their peak power, provided they' are installed to maximise a lower sun. It's really only the shorter day that really limits them.
The sensible plan would be to install for the winter requirements, and use the excess in summer for producing hydrogen, etc.
Modern battery installations are beginning to be efficient and cost effective, and can provide for the lower requirement of the dark hours.
Over a winter month, solar panels can produce, on average, 20-25% of the energy they produce in a summer month.They will provide a peak power about a quarter of their regular peak power.
But they will provide that peak power for less time.
How many hundred gigawatt of solar panels do you want to install? Where do you want to put them?
You will run out of rooftops long before you meet demand.
And as I said in winter peak demand occurs after dark
Well National Grid must be lying then.Peak winter demand does not occur after dark, even if you're only looking at railways.
And energy saving is also part of the equation. Also, as stated above, storage capability is coming on a treat, from a standing start less than 10 years ago (no-one really cared until then), and it can be localised according to need.
I know I won't convince you, and I'm happy to leave it at that. But a green future is perfectly possible if we want it; sadly, not enough people do.
1. probably a three second high as the kettles went on. Not usual. Not representative of a 'normal usage'. As I'm sure you know. Football? Strictly?Peak system demand for the year occurred on the 23rd January 2019.
36/48 settlement periods, so 6pm.
I literally do research on a zero carbon future for a living.
firstly there wouldn't be enough land for the energy required
Do you have a source for this? I find it a little hard to believe!
1. probably a three second high as the kettles went on. Not usual. Not representative of a 'normal usage'. As I'm sure you know. Football? Strictly?
Interesting then that there always seems to be a spike at around 5.30-6pm every day in winter then (pg2). Surely not everyone simultaneously wanting a brew every day at the same time‽
This is National Grid's daily demand model (shape) - note how all the lines have their day peak at around 6pm, particularly prominently with the winter lines. Also note how it's a gradual increase up to that point before falling away, not the sort of sudden spike you'd see if it was everyone putting the kettle on in time for the one show. I would wager that if it wasn't 'normal usage' their graph wouldn't be shaped how it was.
Very Interesting point but I cant see HGVs becoming electric any time soon.Something that isnt often mentioned in the great race to decarbonise is that the majority of the products from the refining process are still going to be needed for many years (forever for some), such as Asphalt and oil based lubricants. One issue will be the millions of gallons of now useless petrol and diesel and what will be done with it all? In the olden days they dumped it straight into the sea! Maybe the geniuses leading the great race might want to look at a way to get rid of this now useless and worthless fuel oil. I dont know maybe a power station powered by Petrol would help.
The other problem is in 25 years all that renewable equipment is going to need to be replaced at great expense especially all those wind farms out at sea.
Anyways I digress, good news on the overheads going up none the less.
I am in awe and this genius! Well done for crunching the numbers.Oh, there would. (Gets out envelope, turns it over....)
U.K. electricity demand was 346TWh in 2019. It has been on a falling trend for 15 years, and 2020 would have been lower even without COVID.
To generate that amount of electricity just through solar, which of course would need huge amounts of energy storage, would need 2641 sq kilometres of land (or sea) to be devoted to solar panels. That’s a little over 1% of the U.K. land mass, which is coincidentally roughly the same as what is considered to be ‘dense built up area’. (approx 6% of the U.K. is ‘built up’, but most of this is actually gardens, roads, car parks, railways etc.)
Using a fag packet this time (and having rechecked my numbers, I’m a bit out...)
Dogger Bank is 3.2GW peak capacity when built out (another few years)
That would be 28,032GWh of electricity a year if it ran at full capacity. The latest average quarterly U.K. offshore wind farm ‘capacity factor’ is 32%, ie it operates, on average at 32% of peak capacity, source here: https://reports.electricinsights.co.uk/q3-2020/capacity-and-production-statistics-17/
Although the last quarter wasn’t very windy, and the 2019 offshore capacity factor for all U.K. offshore was 40.6% Source here:
UK offshore wind capacity factors – Energy Numbers
energynumbers.info
Dogger Bank is ‘very’ offshore, so will have a higher capacity factor than average for offshore. However I have used 40.6%, which means it would generate 40.6% of 28,032GWh = 11,381GWh
Solar generation also varies by location. It’s sunnier, and the sun is stronger, in the south / south east. The average U.K. capacity factor for solar installations is 10-11% of peak output (ie, on average throughout the day/week/year, it generates 10-11% of peak output); so let’s say 10%. A typical metre squared of panels will have a peak output of 150W, which with a U.K. average 10% capacity factor will generate 131KWh a year (150 x 24 x 365 x 10%)
To get to 11,381 GWh (11,381,000,000kwh) you need ‘x’ number of m2 of Solar panels each generating 131KWh.
X = 87 million metres squared, which is 87 km sq.
The city of London is 2.9km sq (not for nothing is it known as the square mile).
City of London - Wikipedia
en.m.wikipedia.org
87 / 2.9 = 30 QED
Indeed, Solar was generating well over 2GW earlier today. But not for very long.
I've seen several presentations which say just that - in fact, they tend to be more efficient in slightly cloudy (non direct sunlight) conditions as there's less reflection and less thermal stress on the panels. They're also typically angled to deliver a broad output for most of the year in the UK, rather than being useless in winter and awesome in summer, they're just good all year round.
I'm still not convinced by your pessism on this.
Point of order
electrifying is not decarbonising. To make electrification carbon free you have to decarbonise electricity generation. Right now we are dependant on gas.
These are much easier to build than several new Pumped Storage Dinorwigs.The future is solar power (no moving parts, minimal maintenance); but wind power is definitely preferable to gas ... the reason they use gas is that they have already contracted to use it, and so they 'might as well' or it's cash wasted.
This kind of silliness will go on until we have ways of using up 'excess' electricity, for example, producing hydrogen for transport usage, or at worst, pumping water upstream so it can create hydro-electric power when needed.
Meanwhile, we should be electrifying all the sensible bits of the railway, and placing solar panels in sensible places to - roof tops, station platforms, and car parks for example.View attachment 87350
Protects cars, produces electricity for 25 years. Virtually no maintenance.
When the new interconnectors come on line next year, I expect to see it fall to further, as the interconnectors effectively behave as a spinning reserve.
Can we actually rely on the connectors post 31/12/2020 having left the EU?
There is talk of a crash programme to replace domestic gas boilers (which account for a substantial proportion of UK CO2 emissions) by electrically powered ground source heat pumps. Together with the electrification of road transport, that will involve a huge increase in total electricity consumption. Particularly peak winter demand in cold weather, since the efficiency of heat pumps falls as the temperature of the heat source drops.It seems to me that the only calculation to matter is to measure the total electricity needs of the country (reducing annually, as has been stated) and calculate the acreage of solar required; sure add in a fair amount for wastage and some for transmission (though don't forget that disseminated battery storage can reduce both).
There is talk of a crash programme to replace domestic gas boilers (which account for a substantial proportion of UK CO2 emissions) by electrically powered ground source heat pumps. Together with the electrification of road transport, that will involve a huge increase in total electricity consumption. Particularly peak winter demand in cold weather, since the efficiency of heat pumps falls as the temperature of the heat source drops.
Certainly that's true, but there have been solutions in place for decades to allow electrical domestic heat to smooth demand. For the purpose of evening out peaks of an hour or so you wouldn't even need old-fashioned storage heaters - just a few small water tanks and a spot of oil around the heating elements.There is talk of a crash programme to replace domestic gas boilers (which account for a substantial proportion of UK CO2 emissions) by electrically powered ground source heat pumps. Together with the electrification of road transport, that will involve a huge increase in total electricity consumption. Particularly peak winter demand in cold weather, since the efficiency of heat pumps falls as the temperature of the heat source drops.
Yes, you can smooth peaks from hour to hour, but the grid still needs to be capable of supplying the total space heating demand over a 24 hour period during a cold snap. That could be challenging in winter if a high proportion of generating capacity is solar.Certainly that's true, but there have been solutions in place for decades to allow electrical domestic heat to smooth demand. For the purpose of evening out peaks of an hour or so you wouldn't even need old-fashioned storage heaters - just a few small water tanks and a spot of oil around the heating elements.
Using domestic heat to smooth demand, and continuing the drive to replace private cars with public transport is a far more effective route to go than pretending that EVs are anything other than a fast-developing nightmare
It was mentioned (on the other thread I think) that this scheme allows bi-modes to pass through York on electric power instead of (I presume) starting out southwards on diesel. The other benefit might be to keep a team busy until other schemes such as Huddersfield-Dewsbury are ready to start on the ground. But I do agree neither of these would count for much on a conventional business case.The article describes the list as a series of “quick wins” with strong business cases .
Is there anything in the public domain that defines a "strong business case"? Church Fenton to Colton seems to be authorised, presumably as a result of an acceptable business case, but I cant see how the benefits (a couple of bimodes/hour running on electricity rather than diesel) would go far towards paying back the outlay. Is some weighting/value now built into the case to quantify the environmental benefit of the switch, and if so how is it calculated?
And has the list leaked out yet anywhere?
Using domestic heat to smooth demand, and continuing the drive to replace private cars with public transport is a far more effective route to go than pretending that EVs are anything other than a fast-developing nightmare
but how would we store power in May for use in December?
The article describes the list as a series of “quick wins” with strong business cases .
Is there anything in the public domain that defines a "strong business case"? Church Fenton to Colton seems to be authorised, presumably as a result of an acceptable business case, but I cant see how the benefits (a couple of bimodes/hour running on electricity rather than diesel) would go far towards paying back the outlay. Is some weighting/value now built into the case to quantify the environmental benefit of the switch, and if so how is it calculated?
And has the list leaked out yet anywhere?
Can we actually rely on the connectors post 31/12/2020 having left the EU?
For example on the MML should the line be blocked for three months between Kettering North and Leicester South Jn (or even to Syston Jns) rather than piecemeal weekend working.
And has the list leaked out yet anywhere?
No. Some of us can keep a secret