Network Rail draws up list of ‘no regret’ electrification schemes - New Civil Engineer

[Bald Rick]

To get the same from solar you’d need to cover an area 33x the size of the City of London.

I make it 36 City of Londons, but I guess that’s splitting hairs!

 

[heenan73]

Perhaps, but myself I would honestly prefer transparent canopies to solar panel ones.
It is rare that we need shade in Britain, but underneath a roof can get quite dim and dingy sometimes.

If it's a choice between shade and nuclear power stations at ludicrous prices, I know my preference
We might not need sunshade a lot, but we do need rainshade!
As it happens, you can get transparent solar panels; they are currently pretty pricey, but that may change. There's also, I'd guess, a slightly higher risk of vandalism - but then, many stations have glazed canopies, and vandalism isn't a huge issue, so far as I know.

 

[Bald Rick]

provide 20-25% of their peak power,

Indeed, Solar was generating well over 2GW earlier today. But not for very long.

 

[heenan73]

I make it 36 City of Londons, but I guess that’s splitting hairs!

Do you have a source for this? I find it a little hard to believe!

 

[HSTEd]

You are mistaken (or out of date). Modern solar panels are pretty efficient, even in Winter, and provide 20-25% of their peak power, provided they' are installed to maximise a lower sun. It's really only the shorter day that really limits them.

Peak power is not a relevant parameter in this case.

They will provide a peak power about a quarter of their regular peak power.
But they will provide that peak power for less time.

Total energy generated will be dramatically lower - and that is ultimately the only parameter that matters.

Efficiency is also an irrelevant parameter, since the limiting factor is that no light is falling out of the sky

The sensible plan would be to install for the winter requirements, and use the excess in summer for producing hydrogen, etc.
Modern battery installations are beginning to be efficient and cost effective, and can provide for the lower requirement of the dark hours.

How many hundred gigawatt of solar panels do you want to install? Where do you want to put them?
You will run out of rooftops long before you meet demand.

And as I said in winter peak demand occcurs after dark

EDIT:

Taking data from 19th December 2019 (to avoid the current unpleasantness), total system demand for that day was 748.545 GWh

Given total insolation at this time of year is about 0.5kWh/m2/day, even if solar panels had 100% efficiency (which is impossible due to thermodynamics), we would need to cover 1497 km2 to meet this demand, even if we had 100% efficient energy storage.

Neither of those things exist, and wew ould be looking at something more like 7500km2. Indeed that is 3% of the UK, or much greater fraction of England (where almost all the demand is). This still assumes 100% of the used area is covered in panels which is probably not achievable for engineering reasons.

Which is much greater than all the rooftops in the UK, which is AUIU only about 600km2.

And this doesn't do anything about the non electricity demand, which is problematic even if you have seasonal energy storage to use the summer power from the panels, because getting the power from the panels to your electrolysis systems is going to be a major pain since it will almost all turn up in midsummer with huuuuuuge powers (on order of 1400GWp based a back of the envelope calc).

 

[heenan73]

They will provide a peak power about a quarter of their regular peak power.
But they will provide that peak power for less time.

How many hundred gigawatt of solar panels do you want to install? Where do you want to put them?
You will run out of rooftops long before you meet demand.

And as I said in winter peak demand occurs after dark

Over a winter month, solar panels can produce, on average, 20-25% of the energy they produce in a summer month.
If we had a government that cared about the future (we don't, and never have), they'd mandate all new buildings to have solar panels, and all roofs designed to maximise output (eg South-facing slopes). You laugh, but 20 years ago they laughed at electric cars (Tesla shares 700% up this year). Also all public bodies (such as Network Rail) would be mandated to install solar panels wherever feasible.

Peak winter demand does not occur after dark, even if you're only looking at railways. And energy saving is also part of the equation. Also, as stated above, storage capability is coming on a treat, from a standing start less than 10 years ago (no-one really cared until then), and it can be localised according to need.

I know I won't convince you, and I'm happy to leave it at that. But a green future is perfectly possible if we want it; sadly, not enough people do.

 

[HSTEd]

Peak winter demand does not occur after dark, even if you're only looking at railways.

Well National Grid must be lying then.

Peak system demand for the year occurred on the 23rd January 2019.
36/48 settlement periods, so 6pm.

Sunset in Manchester on that day was about 4:30pm

And energy saving is also part of the equation. Also, as stated above, storage capability is coming on a treat, from a standing start less than 10 years ago (no-one really cared until then), and it can be localised according to need.

I know I won't convince you, and I'm happy to leave it at that. But a green future is perfectly possible if we want it; sadly, not enough people do.

I literally do research on a zero carbon future for a living.

 

[heenan73]

Peak system demand for the year occurred on the 23rd January 2019.
36/48 settlement periods, so 6pm.

I literally do research on a zero carbon future for a living.

1. probably a three second high as the kettles went on. Not usual. Not representative of a 'normal usage'. As I'm sure you know. Football? Strictly?
2. Then It's a crying shame that you don't believe in it. You generally sound like the guy from Toyota last week: they were streets ahead on hybrids 20 years ago, and having rested on their laurels while everyone overtook them and left them for dust, he now says electric cars are 'overhyped'.

I despair. What hope have the general population got when those who should know better have 1% of the enthusiasm of eccentrics like Elon Musk?

 

[Bald Rick]

firstly there wouldn't be enough land for the energy required

Oh, there would. (Gets out envelope, turns it over....)

U.K. electricity demand was 346TWh in 2019. It has been on a falling trend for 15 years, and 2020 would have been lower even without COVID.

To generate that amount of electricity just through solar, which of course would need huge amounts of energy storage, would need 2641 sq kilometres of land (or sea) to be devoted to solar panels. That’s a little over 1% of the U.K. land mass, which is coincidentally roughly the same as what is considered to be ‘dense built up area’. (approx 6% of the U.K. is ‘built up’, but most of this is actually gardens, roads, car parks, railways etc.)

Do you have a source for this? I find it a little hard to believe!

Using a fag packet this time (and having rechecked my numbers, I’m a bit out...)

Dogger Bank is 3.2GW peak capacity when built out (another few years)

That would be 28,032GWh of electricity a year if it ran at full capacity. The latest average quarterly U.K. offshore wind farm ‘capacity factor’ is 32%, ie it operates, on average at 32% of peak capacity, source here: https://reports.electricinsights.co.uk/q3-2020/capacity-and-production-statistics-17/

Although the last quarter wasn’t very windy, and the 2019 offshore capacity factor for all U.K. offshore was 40.6% Source here:

UK offshore wind capacity factors – Energy Numbers

energynumbers.info

Dogger Bank is ‘very’ offshore, so will have a higher capacity factor than average for offshore. However I have used 40.6%, which means it would generate 40.6% of 28,032GWh = 11,381GWh

Solar generation also varies by location. It’s sunnier, and the sun is stronger, in the south / south east. The average U.K. capacity factor for solar installations is 10-11% of peak output (ie, on average throughout the day/week/year, it generates 10-11% of peak output); so let’s say 10%. A typical metre squared of panels will have a peak output of 150W, which with a U.K. average 10% capacity factor will generate 131KWh a year (150 x 24 x 365 x 10%)

To get to 11,381 GWh (11,381,000,000kwh) you need ‘x’ number of m2 of Solar panels each generating 131KWh.

X = 87 million metres squared, which is 87 km sq.

The city of London is 2.9km sq (not for nothing is it known as the square mile).

City of London - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

87 / 2.9 = 30 QED

 

[Domh245]

1. probably a three second high as the kettles went on. Not usual. Not representative of a 'normal usage'. As I'm sure you know. Football? Strictly?

Interesting then that there always seems to be a spike at around 5.30-6pm every day in winter then (pg2). Surely not everyone simultaneously wanting a brew every day at the same time‽

This is National Grid's daily demand model (shape) - note how all the lines have their day peak at around 6pm, particularly prominently with the winter lines. Also note how it's a gradual increase up to that point before falling away, not the sort of sudden spike you'd see if it was everyone putting the kettle on in time for the one show. I would wager that if it wasn't 'normal usage' their graph wouldn't be shaped how it was.

 

[Bald Rick]

Interesting then that there always seems to be a spike at around 5.30-6pm every day in winter then (pg2). Surely not everyone simultaneously wanting a brew every day at the same time‽

This is National Grid's daily demand model (shape) - note how all the lines have their day peak at around 6pm, particularly prominently with the winter lines. Also note how it's a gradual increase up to that point before falling away, not the sort of sudden spike you'd see if it was everyone putting the kettle on in time for the one show. I would wager that if it wasn't 'normal usage' their graph wouldn't be shaped how it was.

Interesting that current demand (2240 20/12/20) is broadly in the range of the ‘summer minimum’.

 

[heenan73]

I'm still not convinced by your pessism on this.

I don't know why you anti-solar folk obsess about peak demand: it isn't really a big issue now . Solar won't be in a position to give us all our power for decades, and by then, battery (and other) systems will without doubt be much better than they are now.

Incidentally, a quick Google found typical output at 250/sq m, and efficiency at 12% (and rising every year).

The City of London (not to be confused with greater London), is indeed small, and has 99% untapped roofs, as does the rest of the country.

It seems to me that the only calculation to matter is to measure the total electricity needs of the country (reducing annually, as has been stated) and calculate the acreage of solar required; sure add in a fair amount for wastage and some for transmission (though don't forget that disseminated battery storage can reduce both).

It's like the objection to electric cars "it takes hours to charge" they used to say, tactfully ignoring that 90%+ would not be charging an empty battery, merely topping up. Interestingly, fast charges (dismissed as impossible by the sceptics) are now routine.

Don't look for problems. Look for solutions.

I think it's very, very sad to find people interested in Transport to be so negative about related technologies. But I see no point in arguing the toss. I don't believe in your "worst case" cherry-picking; you cannot believe in my optimism. I'm out.

 

[21C101]

Hopefully the Southern infills are among them.

Something that isnt often mentioned in the great race to decarbonise is that the majority of the products from the refining process are still going to be needed for many years (forever for some), such as Asphalt and oil based lubricants. One issue will be the millions of gallons of now useless petrol and diesel and what will be done with it all? In the olden days they dumped it straight into the sea! Maybe the geniuses leading the great race might want to look at a way to get rid of this now useless and worthless fuel oil. I dont know maybe a power station powered by Petrol would help.

The other problem is in 25 years all that renewable equipment is going to need to be replaced at great expense especially all those wind farms out at sea.

Anyways I digress, good news on the overheads going up none the less.

Very Interesting point but I cant see HGVs becoming electric any time soon.

 

[Wapps]

Oh, there would. (Gets out envelope, turns it over....)

U.K. electricity demand was 346TWh in 2019. It has been on a falling trend for 15 years, and 2020 would have been lower even without COVID.

To generate that amount of electricity just through solar, which of course would need huge amounts of energy storage, would need 2641 sq kilometres of land (or sea) to be devoted to solar panels. That’s a little over 1% of the U.K. land mass, which is coincidentally roughly the same as what is considered to be ‘dense built up area’. (approx 6% of the U.K. is ‘built up’, but most of this is actually gardens, roads, car parks, railways etc.)




Using a fag packet this time (and having rechecked my numbers, I’m a bit out...)

Dogger Bank is 3.2GW peak capacity when built out (another few years)

That would be 28,032GWh of electricity a year if it ran at full capacity. The latest average quarterly U.K. offshore wind farm ‘capacity factor’ is 32%, ie it operates, on average at 32% of peak capacity, source here: https://reports.electricinsights.co.uk/q3-2020/capacity-and-production-statistics-17/

Although the last quarter wasn’t very windy, and the 2019 offshore capacity factor for all U.K. offshore was 40.6% Source here:

UK offshore wind capacity factors – Energy Numbers

energynumbers.info

Dogger Bank is ‘very’ offshore, so will have a higher capacity factor than average for offshore. However I have used 40.6%, which means it would generate 40.6% of 28,032GWh = 11,381GWh

Solar generation also varies by location. It’s sunnier, and the sun is stronger, in the south / south east. The average U.K. capacity factor for solar installations is 10-11% of peak output (ie, on average throughout the day/week/year, it generates 10-11% of peak output); so let’s say 10%. A typical metre squared of panels will have a peak output of 150W, which with a U.K. average 10% capacity factor will generate 131KWh a year (150 x 24 x 365 x 10%)

To get to 11,381 GWh (11,381,000,000kwh) you need ‘x’ number of m2 of Solar panels each generating 131KWh.

X = 87 million metres squared, which is 87 km sq.

The city of London is 2.9km sq (not for nothing is it known as the square mile).

City of London - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

87 / 2.9 = 30 QED

I am in awe and this genius! Well done for crunching the numbers.

 

[158756]

Indeed, Solar was generating well over 2GW earlier today. But not for very long.

I've seen several presentations which say just that - in fact, they tend to be more efficient in slightly cloudy (non direct sunlight) conditions as there's less reflection and less thermal stress on the panels. They're also typically angled to deliver a broad output for most of the year in the UK, rather than being useless in winter and awesome in summer, they're just good all year round.

Looking at the available data for this, from https://www.solar.sheffield.ac.uk/pvlive/ , yesterday was a slightly better day than average for solar in December, with peak output of 2.35GW and 9.59GWh produced for the day (1.15% of demand according to https://electricinsights.co.uk/#/dashboard?_k=103ny5). Clouds seem to make a very significant difference - Friday was probably the worst day of the year, peaking at 378MW with a total of 1.44GWh (0.13% of demand).

It looks like performance for the month is approximately 10% of the best summer month (May for some reason) - December 2019 production was 207GWh, May 2020 1970GWh. Daily variation ranges from Friday's 1.44GWh to 80.6GWh on May 29th.

At something like 3x current capacity there would be more solar power than total electricity demand at midday in summer, much less than that before we frequently have more power available than can be used at those times. Storage can help with that, but how would we store power in May for use in December?

 

[Bald Rick]

I'm still not convinced by your pessism on this.

I’m not sure if that was directed at me, or not; I’m very much optimistic about renewable energy including solar. I was just setting out some facts.

Subject to the availability of storage, the uk is well on the way to zero carbon (or effectively so) electricity generation.

 

[The Ham]

Point of order
electrifying is not decarbonising. To make electrification carbon free you have to decarbonise electricity generation. Right now we are dependant on gas.

Whilst electrification doesn't result in net zero, it does get us closer (as others have said).

It should also be noted that often electrification results in longer trains (often 3/4 coach trains replace 1/2 coach trains) and so it's likely that it also results in more people switching to rail from cars, further improving the levels of carbon. Especially given that those who use rail are more likely to walk/cycle for more of their very local travel.

 

[21C101]

The future is solar power (no moving parts, minimal maintenance); but wind power is definitely preferable to gas ... the reason they use gas is that they have already contracted to use it, and so they 'might as well' or it's cash wasted.
This kind of silliness will go on until we have ways of using up 'excess' electricity, for example, producing hydrogen for transport usage, or at worst, pumping water upstream so it can create hydro-electric power when needed.
Meanwhile, we should be electrifying all the sensible bits of the railway, and placing solar panels in sensible places to - roof tops, station platforms, and car parks for example.View attachment 87350

Protects cars, produces electricity for 25 years. Virtually no maintenance.

These are much easier to build than several new Pumped Storage Dinorwigs.

 

[Class 170101]

When the new interconnectors come on line next year, I expect to see it fall to further, as the interconnectors effectively behave as a spinning reserve.

Can we actually rely on the connectors post 31/12/2020 having left the EU?

In terms of electrification even with these no regret schemes can we actually get the supplies / materials / equipment and labour post leaving the EU with or without a deal to actually build and maintain the infrastructure? In terms of access can NR actually build it in budget at ervenings and weekends or do we need to consider other methods of construction.

For example on the MML should the line be blocked for three months between Kettering North and Leicester South Jn (or even to Syston Jns) rather than piecemeal weekend working.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Can we actually rely on the connectors post 31/12/2020 having left the EU?

There will be specific treaties controlling them, not simple EU membership.

 

[Greybeard33]

It seems to me that the only calculation to matter is to measure the total electricity needs of the country (reducing annually, as has been stated) and calculate the acreage of solar required; sure add in a fair amount for wastage and some for transmission (though don't forget that disseminated battery storage can reduce both).

There is talk of a crash programme to replace domestic gas boilers (which account for a substantial proportion of UK CO2 emissions) by electrically powered ground source heat pumps. Together with the electrification of road transport, that will involve a huge increase in total electricity consumption. Particularly peak winter demand in cold weather, since the efficiency of heat pumps falls as the temperature of the heat source drops.

 

[Domh245]

There is talk of a crash programme to replace domestic gas boilers (which account for a substantial proportion of UK CO2 emissions) by electrically powered ground source heat pumps. Together with the electrification of road transport, that will involve a huge increase in total electricity consumption. Particularly peak winter demand in cold weather, since the efficiency of heat pumps falls as the temperature of the heat source drops.

Yes, between increasing uptake of EVs and increasing electrification of heating services, you'd be foolish to think that the current downwards trajectory of energy usage would continue

 

[takno]

There is talk of a crash programme to replace domestic gas boilers (which account for a substantial proportion of UK CO2 emissions) by electrically powered ground source heat pumps. Together with the electrification of road transport, that will involve a huge increase in total electricity consumption. Particularly peak winter demand in cold weather, since the efficiency of heat pumps falls as the temperature of the heat source drops.

Certainly that's true, but there have been solutions in place for decades to allow electrical domestic heat to smooth demand. For the purpose of evening out peaks of an hour or so you wouldn't even need old-fashioned storage heaters - just a few small water tanks and a spot of oil around the heating elements.

Using domestic heat to smooth demand, and continuing the drive to replace private cars with public transport is a far more effective route to go than pretending that EVs are anything other than a fast-developing nightmare

 

[Greybeard33]

Certainly that's true, but there have been solutions in place for decades to allow electrical domestic heat to smooth demand. For the purpose of evening out peaks of an hour or so you wouldn't even need old-fashioned storage heaters - just a few small water tanks and a spot of oil around the heating elements.

Using domestic heat to smooth demand, and continuing the drive to replace private cars with public transport is a far more effective route to go than pretending that EVs are anything other than a fast-developing nightmare

Yes, you can smooth peaks from hour to hour, but the grid still needs to be capable of supplying the total space heating demand over a 24 hour period during a cold snap. That could be challenging in winter if a high proportion of generating capacity is solar.

 

[Grumpy]

The article describes the list as a series of “quick wins” with strong business cases .
Is there anything in the public domain that defines a "strong business case"? Church Fenton to Colton seems to be authorised, presumably as a result of an acceptable business case, but I cant see how the benefits (a couple of bimodes/hour running on electricity rather than diesel) would go far towards paying back the outlay. Is some weighting/value now built into the case to quantify the environmental benefit of the switch, and if so how is it calculated?

And has the list leaked out yet anywhere?

 

[edwin_m]

The article describes the list as a series of “quick wins” with strong business cases .
Is there anything in the public domain that defines a "strong business case"? Church Fenton to Colton seems to be authorised, presumably as a result of an acceptable business case, but I cant see how the benefits (a couple of bimodes/hour running on electricity rather than diesel) would go far towards paying back the outlay. Is some weighting/value now built into the case to quantify the environmental benefit of the switch, and if so how is it calculated?

And has the list leaked out yet anywhere?

It was mentioned (on the other thread I think) that this scheme allows bi-modes to pass through York on electric power instead of (I presume) starting out southwards on diesel. The other benefit might be to keep a team busy until other schemes such as Huddersfield-Dewsbury are ready to start on the ground. But I do agree neither of these would count for much on a conventional business case.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Using domestic heat to smooth demand, and continuing the drive to replace private cars with public transport is a far more effective route to go than pretending that EVs are anything other than a fast-developing nightmare

Cars will not go away. Therefore, electric ones are preferable to ICE ones.

 

[Philip Phlopp]

but how would we store power in May for use in December?

Hydrogen production

The article describes the list as a series of “quick wins” with strong business cases .
Is there anything in the public domain that defines a "strong business case"? Church Fenton to Colton seems to be authorised, presumably as a result of an acceptable business case, but I cant see how the benefits (a couple of bimodes/hour running on electricity rather than diesel) would go far towards paying back the outlay. Is some weighting/value now built into the case to quantify the environmental benefit of the switch, and if so how is it calculated?

And has the list leaked out yet anywhere?

Still being worked upon, I believe. There's a degree of complication because some of the lines with the strong business cases need small infill projects which in isolation will not have a strong business case. This is particularly the case with some lines which will benefit and profit from freight moving to electric traction.

 

[Bald Rick]

Can we actually rely on the connectors post 31/12/2020 having left the EU?

Yes, the deal is done. And Norway and Northern Ireland aren’t in the EU

For example on the MML should the line be blocked for three months between Kettering North and Leicester South Jn (or even to Syston Jns) rather than piecemeal weekend working.

Alternative possession strategies are being looked at. However, and as ever, the route to industry level efficiency is repeatable work in a production line fashion, making best use of the people on site in terms of shift length, with minimum set up / strike down of worksites. For the MML, my gut feel is that it should be 7 hour possessions in the week to do all the prep work, erect simple steelwork and wire runs, with a series of weekends and a handful of longer blocks to do the bridges, gantries, etc.

In any event, there’s no point rushing it, and then having the wires up 3 years before the Grid connections are commissioned.

And has the list leaked out yet anywhere?

No. Some of us can keep a secret.

 

[The Ham]

No. Some of us can keep a secret

Spoilsport...