Brexit matters

[Pinza-C55]

Is that supposed to make me feel better?

No. The truth is sometimes uncomfortable.

 

[Ianno87]

Of course travel costs will be that much more for universities in more distant countries, making this less affordable for poorer students.

Flight prices and flight distance are only loosely correlated at best.

 

[najaB]

Flight prices and flight distance are only loosely correlated at best.

There's more to travel costs than flights.

 

[317 forever]

The UK has reciprocal healthcare with Bosnia, North Macedonia, Serbia, Montenegro, New Zealand and Australia so you can't even say it is special to the EU. It would be weird if Britain didn't have a healthcare agreement with its neighbours but did have one with most Balkan states.

Seeing those countries listed, I feel as though I am watching the votes in a Eurovision Song Contest.

I've not been keeping an eye on the deal but don't forget that they've had months to do this. A deal is likely better than no deal but remember that we may have gotten better if we actually started negotiations in spring.

Parliament is due for a vote on 30th December which is farcical given the deadline on the 31st. Get them in on Saturday to vote on it - these people serve us not the other way round.

Also check the international press, ours will sell us out for a euro

On Saturday? OK that was yesterday now, but would Parliament really convene on December 26th?

It’s a shame there isn’t an election in 2021. That could be very interesting indeed. 2024 feels a very long time away - I hope there are big changes to our government before then though.

There may well be. People will have long memories of the Christmas relaxation U-turn. So if Boris is still Prime Minister going into the next General Election, the Conservatives are as good as guaranteed to lose.

In 1997 Labour won 418 seats. Their biggest ever victory with a majority of 179. 56 of those labour seats were in Scotland. If the SNP had won them Labour's 1997 majority would have only been 67.

In 2001 if then SNP had won Labours seats, Labours majority instead of 167, would have been 55.

In 1945 if the SNP had won Labours seats, Labours majority would instead of 146, have been 72.

In no other election would Labour have won a majority had the SNP won the Scottish seats (and in the 60s the SNP might have kept the Tories in power had they been kingmakers)

Also, the updating of constituency boundaries, even if Parliament stays at the existing 650 seats and isn't reduced to 600 will make it even more difficult for Labour.

Although I agree with your election figures above - but wonder whether Labour could also have won in 1966 without Scotland - I understand that the 650 constituencies are being kept albeit amended to produce similar-sized electorates.

The Parliamentary Constituencies Bill 2019-21 - House of Commons Library

The Parliamentary Constituencies Bill 2019-21 will amends the Parliamentary Constituencies Act 1986. The 1986 Act gives the Boundary Commissions their statutory basis, governs the constituency boundary review process and sets the Rules of Redistribution that the Commissions must follow.

If the Bill, as introduced, made the following key changes:

• The number of MPs will be fixed at 650;
• The 2018 Review, which would have reduced the number of MPs to 600 will no longer be implemented. Ministers will no longer be required to lay legislation (a draft Order in Council) to implement the 2018 Review.
• The next review, due to start in 2021, will have to be completed by the Boundary Commissions by 1 July 2023. It will be based on the number of registered electorates as of 1 December 2020;
• The next review after the 2023 Review will have to be completed by 1 October 2031; with subsequent reviews required to report by the 1 October every eight years thereafter;
• Recommendations of the Boundary Commissions will be no longer require Parliamentary approval and government ministers will have no power to alter recommendations;
• The public consultation phase will be amended to allow for public hearings in the secondary stage of consultation rather than in the initial stage. The time allowed for public consultations from 2031 will remain the same overall (24 weeks) but will be split into three eight-week periods. The consultation stages of the 2023 Review will be have a shorter duration as a result of the shorter time available for the 2023 Review.
• The Boundary Commissions will be given more flexibility to use local government and ward boundaries that have yet to come into force.

The provisions of the Bill extend and apply to the whole of the United Kingdom. The matters to which the provisions of the Bill relate are not within the legislative competence of the Scottish Parliament, the Senedd Cymru/Welsh Parliament or the Northern Ireland Assembly, and no legislative consent motion is being sought in relation to any provision of the Bill.

 

[Dave1987]

Yes but its already better than what I feared. I guess the Tories have a vested interest in getting young Brits to live and study outside of Europe now. The scheme will almost certainly be set up to favour non European Universities. The funding level should mean the average place will be in mid level western universities and high end universities in developing countries.

This is the man in charge of the country.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">This turned out to be a blatant lie. <a href="https://t.co/60UGA0MOE1">pic.twitter.com/60UGA0MOE1</a></p>&mdash; Carl Bildt (@carlbildt) <a href="https://twitter.com/carlbildt/status/1342781635272568832?ref_src=twsrc^tfw">December 26, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Looking at the Sunday papers it doesn’t look like he has any intention of going either. Bluff, bluster, lie that's all he ever does. But because he does it "charismatically" they all love him.

 

[Chester1]

Seeing those countries listed, I feel as though I am watching the votes in a Eurovision Song Contest.



On Saturday? OK that was yesterday now, but would Parliament really convene on December 26th?



There may well be. People will have long memories of the Christmas relaxation U-turn. So if Boris is still Prime Minister going into the next General Election, the Conservatives are as good as guaranteed to lose.



Although I agree with your election figures above - but wonder whether Labour could also have won in 1966 without Scotland - I understand that the 650 constituencies are being kept albeit amended to produce similar-sized electorates.

The Parliamentary Constituencies Bill 2019-21 - House of Commons Library

This is the man in charge of the country.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">This turned out to be a blatant lie. <a href="https://t.co/60UGA0MOE1">pic.twitter.com/60UGA0MOE1</a></p>&mdash; Carl Bildt (@carlbildt) <a href="https://twitter.com/carlbildt/status/1342781635272568832?ref_src=twsrc^tfw">December 26, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Looking at the Sunday papers it doesn’t look like he has any intention of going either. Bluff, bluster, lie that's all he ever does. But because he does it "charismatically" they all love him.

The deal is better than expected so he will survive the new year but he won't survive an SNP landslide in May. The Tory back benchers will go for him over his handling of covid and so that there is some chance of keeping Scotland in the union. It only takes 55 Tory MPs to trigger a vote of no confidence which would be terminal for Boris. Tory brexiteers are prepared for Scotland to go independent as a result of brexit (because they are aware it has been slowly heading in that direction for a long time). However, they won't let Scotland leave without a fight, which means replacing Boris with someone acceptable to Scots and doing constitutional reform. The idea Tory to do it would be Ruth Davidson who could also help reconciliation with English remainers. She isn't an MP so unless she was parachuted into a safe English seat temporarily, the next best person is probably Rishi Sunak.

 

[37424]

The deal is better than expected so he will survive the new year but he won't survive an SNP landslide in May. The Tory back benchers will go for him over his handling of covid and so that there is some chance of keeping Scotland in the union. It only takes 55 Tory MPs to trigger a vote of no confidence which would be terminal for Boris. Tory brexiteers are prepared for Scotland to go independent as a result of brexit (because they are aware it has been slowly heading in that direction for a long time). However, they won't let Scotland leave without a fight, which means replacing Boris with someone acceptable to Scots and doing constitutional reform. The idea Tory to do it would be Ruth Davidson who could also help reconciliation with English remainers. She isn't an MP so unless she was parachuted into a safe English seat temporarily, the next best person is probably Rishi Sunak.

I don't think Boris is going anywhere soon after all he has delivered something reasonably close to what the UKIP English Tory party want, Ruth Davidson no chance she is far too moderate for the English Tory party these days.

 

[matacaster]

The deal is better than expected so he will survive the new year but he won't survive an SNP landslide in May. The Tory back benchers will go for him over his handling of covid and so that there is some chance of keeping Scotland in the union. It only takes 55 Tory MPs to trigger a vote of no confidence which would be terminal for Boris. Tory brexiteers are prepared for Scotland to go independent as a result of brexit (because they are aware it has been slowly heading in that direction for a long time). However, they won't let Scotland leave without a fight, which means replacing Boris with someone acceptable to Scots and doing constitutional reform. The idea Tory to do it would be Ruth Davidson who could also help reconciliation with English remainers. She isn't an MP so unless she was parachuted into a safe English seat temporarily, the next best person is probably Rishi Sunak.

The Scots would have a very hard time of it. Rest of UK would move all shipbuilding to Belfast / south coast. Germany would not be wanting to prop up another lame duck. Anyway, perhaps Sturgeon could explain why being a very small fish in EU 27 members (with precious little fish left for Scots!! ) and being isolated from EU by sea is better than being a bigger fish in uk (4 nations).

 

[21C101]

The idea that Boris will be dumped by the Tory backbenchers later this year is on a par with the idea that Thatcher would have been dumped by the Tory backbenchers in Autumn 1982 after winning the Falklands War.

It is Labour and SNP who have the headache now.

Labour now have to try and win the Red Wall back against a backdrop of Boris getting Brexit done and focusing domestic policy on keeping those seats (Blythe and Tyne being top priority for reopening is no accident).

SNP have to sell the idea of an "independence" that will mean the return of things like VAT on Tampons, the Common Fisheries Policy, adopting the Euro and simultaneously losing Barnet formula money at the same time as having to make net contributions to the EU.

Boris is going nowhere and will seek to increase his majority at the 2024 general election.

 

[DarloRich]

A deal is better than no deal. This deal despite all the spin and tory media cheer leading is not a great deal. This deal is not as good as what the brexit clowns threw away for blue passports.

Good effort lads

 

[Dave1987]

The idea that Boris will be dumped by the Tory backbenchers later this year is on a par with the idea that Thatcher would have been dumped by the Tory backbenchers in Autumn 1982 after winning the Falklands War.

It is Labour and SNP who have the headache now.

Labour now have to try and win the Red Wall back against a backdrop of Boris getting Brexit done and focusing domestic policy on keeping those seats (Blythe and Tyne being top priority for reopening is no accident).

SNP have to sell the idea of an "independence" that will mean the return of things like VAT on Tampons, the Common Fisheries Policy, adopting the Euro and simultaneously losing Barnet formula money at the same time as having to make net contributions to the EU.

Boris is going nowhere and will seek to increase his majority at the 2024 general election.

I doubt it. By 2024 the true extent to what Brexit is will be evident. If the UK is possibly going to succeed in this post-Brexit world then the country needs to unite and get rid of this "Remoaner" rubbish etc etc. I see NONE of that with BoJo. I have seen some very vocal BoJo supporters now calling for him to use his majority to curb press freedoms and curb freedom of speech. BoJo caused the toxic divide this country is in right now and there is no way to unite it unless he goes or he dramatically changes his tune, stops constantly lying, stops the bluff and bluster because right now there are a lot of remainers who will be very happy to see the UK crash and burn post Brexit because of the "Remoaner" tagline that Brexiteers kept harping on about. The UK is as divided as it was after the vote in 2016. At the moment the UK stands zero chance of prosperity because it is so divided.

 

[Pinza-C55]

The idea that Boris will be dumped by the Tory backbenchers later this year is on a par with the idea that Thatcher would have been dumped by the Tory backbenchers in Autumn 1982 after winning the Falklands War.

It is Labour and SNP who have the headache now.

Labour now have to try and win the Red Wall back against a backdrop of Boris getting Brexit done and focusing domestic policy on keeping those seats (Blythe and Tyne being top priority for reopening is no accident).

SNP have to sell the idea of an "independence" that will mean the return of things like VAT on Tampons, the Common Fisheries Policy, adopting the Euro and simultaneously losing Barnet formula money at the same time as having to make net contributions to the EU.

Boris is going nowhere and will seek to increase his majority at the 2024 general election.

The SNP are a puppet government who can hold a referendum on their own volition but Whitehall doesn't have to take any notice of it.

Apparently 6 Labour shadow ministers are threatening to resign over Starmer whipping Labour MPs to vote for Borises deal.

As you say, Boris is not going to leave and has no opposition in Labour.

 

[yorksrob]

The Brexiteer and Remoaner tag lines really need to be put to rest by both sides to move forward.

I would hope that the deal allows us not to be at constant loggerheads with our friends and neighbours across the channel finally. What good would the opposition realistically do in opposing this agreement. It would put us in dispute with the EU and us in turmoil for even longer. Get the deal done with - it can always be built upon if both sides agree.

 

[Journeyman]

The Brexiteer and Remoaner tag lines really need to be put to rest by both sides to move forward.

I would hope that the deal allows us not to be at constant loggerheads with our friends and neighbours across the channel finally. What good would the opposition realistically do in opposing this agreement. It would put us in dispute with the EU and us in turmoil for even longer. Get the deal done with - it can always be built upon if both sides agree.

I agree. I think it's appalling and far worse than what we had before, but doing anything that risks a no deal situation is insane. The SNP are just posturing in an attempt to drum up support for independence, and the Lib Dems are irrelevant because there's so few of them.

Labour need to make sure we don't crash and burn by accident, and then hold Boris responsible for trashing our economy for the sake of a few fish.

 

[Dave1987]

You only have to look at the Daily Telegraph and The Times comments sections to how “United” the UK is currently. This is not going to be healed overnight. Could take a very very very long time to move on from Brexit if we ever do.

 

[eoff]

SNP have to sell the idea of an "independence" that will mean the return of things like VAT on Tampons, the Common Fisheries Policy, adopting the Euro and simultaneously losing Barnet formula money at the same time as having to make net contributions to the EU.

Not really. They just need enough people to answer yes to a question like this one...

"Should Scotland be an independent country?"

They will frame the debate in simple terms, as England/Westminster against Scotland and say that Scotland can go it 'alone' as a 'progressive' nation in the EU. Last time I don't think practical details got in the way of this, not even considerations like which currency would be used.

 

[21C101]

As Cavaliers and Roundheads are still not quite extinct phrases 370 years on and Whigs and Tories are not extinct 200 years on (the latter still in everyday use), I don't think Brexiteer and Remoaner are going to disappear any time soon, but they may lose their venom with time.

Europhobe and Europhile will probably vanish quite fast though.

 

[bspahh]

You only have to look at the Daily Telegraph and The Times comments sections to how “United” the UK is currently. This is not going to be healed overnight. Could take a very very very long time to move on from Brexit if we ever do.

Reconciliation is unlikely, without some truth.

 

[Chester1]

Not really. They just need enough people to answer yes to a question like this one...

"Should Scotland be an independent country?"

They will frame the debate in simple terms, as England/Westminster against Scotland and say that Scotland can go it 'alone' as a 'progressive' nation in the EU. Last time I don't think practical details got in the way of this, not even considerations like which currency would be used.

Its Scexit / Make Scotland Great Again, its just their fat nationalist, with a very dodgy history with women, who hates their southern neighbour is no longer leader. Facts won't matter. The SNP will say that the FTA is totally inadequate for trade with EU but is perfectly adequate for their trade with England and Wales once Scotland rejoins EU. I expect a majority of Scots to buy that despite Scotland doing the majority of its trade with England and Wales...

England can manage a border with Scotland by having two road-rail crossings (M6-WCML and A1-ECML) and a 87 mile big fence. I reckon rUK will continue with its island nation mentality.

As Cavaliers and Roundheads are still not quite extinct phrases 370 years on and Whigs and Tories are not extinct 200 years on (the latter still in everyday use), I don't think Brexiteer and Remoaner are going to disappear any time soon, but they may lose their venom with time.

Europhobe and Europhile will probably vanish quite fast though.

I use remoaner specifically to describe people who are totally unreconciled with brexit, blame everything on it, accept everything from Brussels as gospel truth and are sure we will rejoin. For me they are the mirror of the people who will only accept no deal. Both are unreconcilable, it's the average remainer and brexiteer that can be brought together to move the country on.

 

[matacaster]

Also, how would hard border between England (biggest trading partner) and Scotland with all trains and lorries needing to be checked?

 

[DarloRich]

Do Labour have an option but to support the poor Johnson deal?

 

[Journeyman]

Also, how would hard border between England (biggest trading partner) and Scotland with all trains and lorries needing to be checked?

This is something Scottish Nationalists don't seem willing to address at all, but it'll be a massive problem, especially to the significant number of people who live one side of the border and work, shop, socialise, do business etc on the other on a regular basis.

I'm extremely unhappy about Brexit and I think we'd be far better off closer to Europe again, but Scottish independence is too high a price to pay for it, and will have devastating unintended consequences. I really, really don't have the stomach for the division and hostility all over again.

We just have to hope Brexit doesn't turn out to be too much of a disaster. I know that's setting the bar very low, but I'm not optimistic enough to expect much else. I just think Scexit on top of it will be apocalyptic for Scotland, and pretty catastrophic for rUK.

 

[najaB]

Do Labour have an option but to support the poor Johnson deal?

Not really, no. Because a bad deal is better than no deal, despite the rhetoric of the last few years.

 

[nlogax]

Also, how would hard border between England (biggest trading partner) and Scotland with all trains and lorries needing to be checked?

Scotland breaking up from the rest of the UK would be considerably more difficult than Brexit in most ways (respective shares of the national debt being the most obviously contentious) but I can’t imagine there’d be a hard border.

Maybe time for a separate thread about it?

 

[Chester1]

Also, how would hard border between England (biggest trading partner) and Scotland with all trains and lorries needing to be checked?

It will need the same checks as any goods going between GB and anywhere within single market except Northern Ireland. Even the Northern Ireland protocol would require a hard border with GB if there was a land border. Its very minimal but it still requires everything to go through customs posts even with 91% of goods being waived through because they are considered at low risk of entering Republic of Ireland. Scotland won't get Northern Ireland's deal either as part of the UK or as an independent country. It gives Northern Ireland very preferential treatment from both EU and GB and will cost both sides a fortune in the long run if it is successful. There isn't a chance of allowing a solution for a recent conflict zone of 1.8 million people being applied to Scotland's more advanced economy of 5.5 million people because Scotland wants to have its cake and eat it. The solution to Scotland going independent and rejoining the EU is two customs posts (M6-WCML) and (A1-ECML) both would need Dover-Calais style customs facilities on either side. They are the only significant crossings and that is comparable with what the EU has on its external borders with third countries. Scotland-England would be similar with Russia and the Baltic States or Romania-Moldova.

This is something Scottish Nationalists don't seem willing to address at all, but it'll be a massive problem, especially to the significant number of people who live one side of the border and work, shop, socialise, do business etc on the other on a regular basis.

I'm extremely unhappy about Brexit and I think we'd be far better off closer to Europe again, but Scottish independence is too high a price to pay for it, and will have devastating unintended consequences. I really, really don't have the stomach for the division and hostility all over again.

We just have to hope Brexit doesn't turn out to be too much of a disaster. I know that's setting the bar very low, but I'm not optimistic enough to expect much else. I just think Scexit on top of it will be apocalyptic for Scotland, and pretty catastrophic for rUK.

SNP have already said for a long time that a hard border would be England's choice through brexit and I expect a majority of Scots to buy that argument. There is also the delusion amongst nationalists that breaking up the UK would make England recant its decisions, rejoin the EU and sign up to Euro and Schengen... It would strip England of many of the legacies of being a major power but I think it would push England towards being more neutral and focused on global trade.

 

[edwin_m]

Reconciliation is unlikely, without some truth.

This. The Brexit faction has lied and schemed to deceive the public, damage the country and get themselves into power. Where they have demonstrated total incompetence in doing anything else, and people have died as a result. Johnson and co have too much form to be reconcilers, and they show no interest in even trying.

 

[Chester1]

This. The Brexit faction has lied and schemed to deceive the public, damage the country and get themselves into power. Where they have demonstrated total incompetence in doing anything else, and people have died as a result. Johnson and co have too much form to be reconcilers, and they show no interest in even trying.

A large chunk of brexiteers seem to be reacting to this deal as being in the ball park of what they expected when they decided to vote for Brexit and / or for Tories last year. There is a type of remainer who like to read Guardian, Mirror and Independent articles explaining how Boris has broken most of his promises on brexit. Its that kind of thinking that lost the referendum. They argued against brexit instead of campaigning on an emotionally for the EU and its values. Contrary to popular belief most brexit voters weren't thick and knew Boris says any rubbish he likes, they bought into a general idea of the UK being seperate to Europe and going its own way in the world. The Canada+ FTA the Government has signed will satisfy many. Its in the ball park of what they expected and that will do. They won't be won over by slating the Govermment at every turn for lying.

 

[XAM2175]

perhaps Sturgeon could explain why being a very small fish in EU 27 members (with precious little fish left for Scots!! ) and being isolated from EU by sea is better than being a bigger fish in uk (4 nations).

The SNP are a puppet government who can hold a referendum on their own volition but Whitehall doesn't have to take any notice of it.

I can't help but feel a contradiction between the notion of being a bigger fish in this union while at the same time having a "puppet government".

On the point of the euro, the Treaty of Maastricht requires states joining the EU to also join the eurozone once they meet the necessary prerequisites. The actual meeting of those prerequisites is a different matter, which is how Sweden has been studiously managing to avoid adopting the euro for twenty-six years now by simply not participating in the European Exchange Rate Mechanism

Scotland breaking up from the rest of the UK would be considerably more difficult than Brexit in most ways (respective shares of the national debt being the most obviously contentious) but I can’t imagine there’d be a hard border.

Maybe time for a separate thread about it?

There would be need a need for a customs border, in the least, if Scotland joins the EU's customs area. It would need to operate in the same way as the customs border between the UK and France, unless there is an agreement for deviation towards something like the NI Protocol.
An immigration border would be necessary if Scotland were to join the Schengen Area, as is required of new members of the EU - but it could potentially be avoided by a hypothetical special agreement that kept Scotland in the Common Travel Area instead.

But yes, the details of this sort of thing are a bit of a drift for this particular thread.

 

[37424]

Do Labour have an option but to support the poor Johnson deal?

Good job they are because it would seem the SNP are to vote against it rather than abstaining which I think is utterly stupid.

 

[DarloRich]

And its a good job they are because it would seem the SNP are to vote against it rather than abstaining which I think is utterly stupid.

I think the SNP are in a different posistion. Scotland did not vote for leave.

Not really, no. Because a bad deal is better than no deal, despite the rhetoric of the last few years.

Agreed - and this is not a good deal.