Updates from Nicola Sturgeon in Scottish Parliament today (All notes are my own):
- Everyone on JCVI priority (all group 1-9) to be offered first jab by mid-April.
- All adults to have a first jab offered by mid July
- Vaccination do offer a route back to greater normality, however a cautious and sustainable route out of the pandemic absolutely must be taken.
- Lockdown has had an impact, down from 330 cases per 100,000 at start of January to just over 100 today. Despite this, the rate of decline is slowing, likely due to the new variant (B.1.1.7), essential to keep reproductive rate (R Number) below 1.
- Right now, we have quite limited scope to change/relax restrictions. Important to see the impact of school return on reproductive rate before further assessment of change.
- In a positive position at the current time, however caution is paramount.
- Risk of new variants means maximum suppression must remain key.
- Must rely on restrictions for a while to suppress until the vaccine can replace the protection currently offered by restrictions. Must be a gradual transition from more restrictive protection to more antibody/vaccine protection.
- Testing capacity to be expanded, including workplace and expanded community testing.
- Travel restrictions are essential for quite some time yet. Important to guard against new variants which can bypass the antibody response generated by vaccines.
Indicative timescale of the reopening of society:
Strategic framework is deliberately cautious however it is possible to accelerate these dates.
- Fully back to the levels system in the last week in April, ideally to level 3 nationally, following this local transmission rates will mean certain areas can go up/down levels. This is dependant on all JCVI list getting vaccine.
- From last week in April. non essential retail, hospitality and gyms/leisure are likely to reopen at this point when the return to the level system takes place.
- A progressive easing of level 4 restrictions between now and end of April (intervals of at least 3 weeks), priority remains education and return of schools and care home visiting.
- Care home visiting restrictions to be eased from start of March.
(Indicative from March 15th):
- Rest of primary (P4-7) return to school
- Secondary school return to school for part of their learning
- Increase outdoor mixing to 4 from 2 households from 2 to 2 households
From 5th April:
- Stay at home order will be lifted, all pupils return to school from this date.
- Communal worship can resume from this date, subject to restrictions on numbers
- 6 people from 2 households can meet outdoors.
- Essential retail can be expanded and click and collect restrictions resumed.
From 26th April:
All of Scotland returns to level 3, and economy and society will be reopened from this date onwards.
Business support will be expanded (to be explained later).
Indicative staged timetable is reasonable according to the Scottish cabinet.
Hopefully more detail offered on future easing of restrictions quite soon (15th of March).