22nd February - Roadmap out of the pandemic, lifting of restrictions.

[Nicholas Lewis]

The problem is they've been put into a position by the uncomfortable soup of legislation, guidance and "discretion" where they are now basically forced to try and decide what is right and wrong.

At all stages, there's been all sorts of ridiculous overreaching police enforcement. Giving people fines for not having masks despite them providing evidence of being medically exempt, fining people for having a "picnic" because they were carrying a coffee.

The job of the police should be to enforce the law, not decide what the law is. During this pandemic they've been increasingly forced to do so.

Yeah the media have picked up a few daft behaviour by the cops but the majority of the police have applied common sense from what i can observe. I suspect they only intervene because the media run stories 'oh look at all these people out - what are the police doing about it' and then pretty vacant gets puts under pressure so whips a few chief constables to take action. Truth is these people are getting fresh air and topping up their vitamin D far more healthy for them than staying inside a poorly ventilated space anyhow.

 

[35B]

Yet when it comes to our politicians that breach laws it’s a free pass, the public are taken as fools?

Strange that was it not recently for people going for a walk the police fined them (took fine back) but classed as a picnic? I’m sorry but that’s the joke - no one has a clue what they are doing from governments to the police but still let’s milk the situation though with fines?

You mentioned outbreaks outdoors also strange protests broke out but not a blip.

Two different forces, and at very different stages of understanding of the state of the pandemic and the law. I'm not condoning Derbyshire's actions that day, but to compare them with what was shown from Brighton is misleading.

As for the outdoors outbreaks, my whole point is that the evidence is that the large numbers visiting Dorset beaches didn't give rise to outbreaks. As for the demos, some have been reported and other not; given the size of them, I'm hardly surprised - when I used to live in London, it was common to be aware of road closures for xyz demo which wouldn't even get on the local news.

 

[ScotRail158725]

I passed through Glasgow Central other day, two police officers were walking around, not checking if anyone's journey was essential!

Theres typically never any police to check if anyone’s journey is essential in the first place. Same can be said for Glasgow Queen Street and Edinburgh Waverley

 

[Watershed]

Well if you go by the letter of the law it all depends on where you live. If you happen to live in London you've got the whole city to explore, if you live in Dent, well not so much. Its why this is a totally stupid idea in the first place, and why people choose to ignore it.

The letter of the law has no concept of "local area". It is something that the government has simply made up for the purposes of the guidance. They have had every opportunity to make the guidance legally binding (as it for example is for people organising permitted gatherings), but have not done so. That should tell you everything you need to know!

 

[yorksrob]

The letter of the law has no concept of "local area". It is something that the government has simply made up for the purposes of the guidance. They have had every opportunity to make the guidance legally binding (as it for example is for people organising permitted gatherings), but have not done so. That should tell you everything you need to know!

I'm glad that they haven't.

It would be a hiding to nowhere.

 

[duncanp]

Theres typically never any police to check if anyone’s journey is essential in the first place. Same can be said for Glasgow Queen Street and Edinburgh Waverley

And Birmingham New Street as well, going by my experience yesterday.

Police and rail staff were conspicuous by their absence, as was the conductor on the tram I used to get to New Street station, thus giving everyone without a ticket a free ride.

It is about time the free money tap from the government is turned off, so that public transport operators have an incentive to collect fares again.

Pleased to see that all the silly one way systems and closing off every entrance door except one has been abolished at New Street as well.

 

[Cdd89]

Realistically we only have six more days of this ambiguity; once we switch from “exercise” to “open air recreation” the need to travel some distance to access such recreation is almost included by definition.

 

[Bantamzen]

Just got back from a couple of hours walking, and I am very pleased to report that there are lots of people about on the Leeds Liverpool Canal, and not one face mask or anyone diving into bushes to avoid other humans. Felt almost normal!

 

[DorkingMain]

Agree with first sentence but not the second. Think some have chosen to decide what the law is. If they were unsure then should exercise discretion, not decide that someone is breaking the law.

"Use discretion" as an idea cuts both ways, unfortunately. If there were clearer legislative statements on what is and isn't allowed this wouldn't be a problem. Instead our government are happy to let the police try and fill in the blanks.

 

[Richard Scott]

"Use discretion" as an idea cuts both ways, unfortunately. If there were clearer legislative statements on what is and isn't allowed this wouldn't be a problem. Instead our government are happy to let the police try and fill in the blanks.

Thank you, that makes your point clearer. Yes, will go along with that.

 

[greyman42]

Realistically we only have six more days of this ambiguity; once we switch from “exercise” to “open air recreation” the need to travel some distance to access such recreation is almost included by definition.

Can someone explain this. I must of missed something.

 

[Watershed]

Can someone explain this. I must of missed something.

The roadmap indicates the government intends to reintroduce the specific "outdoor recreation" reasonable excuse (that was also seen last year). This effectively means the end of the "stay at home" rule, since certain kinds of outdoor recreation (e.g. going to the beach) will inherently require a journey of some distance.

 

[philosopher]

Can someone explain this. I must of missed something.

I think it will be a lot harder for the police to argue you are breaking the law if you visit a beach 50 miles away if it is for recreation, as that may be your nearest beach, even if the guidance is to say local.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

The roadmap indicates the government intends to reintroduce the specific "outdoor recreation" reasonable excuse (that was also seen last year). This effectively means the end of the "stay at home" rule, since certain kinds of outdoor recreation (e.g. going to the beach) will inherently require a journey of some distance.

Stay at Home isn't removed until 29th March so technically going to the beach when you aren't local to one (who knows what local means) isn't permitted but what you can do is meet someone for a coffee for example. If you live at Brighton you can go beachcombing now rather than just a planned walk along the beach for exercise. Actually its all pretty vague as my take is they know its unenforceable but if you give people the impression its law a fair proportion will comply so its has some benefit.

 

[kez19]

Two different forces, and at very different stages of understanding of the state of the pandemic and the law. I'm not condoning Derbyshire's actions that day, but to compare them with what was shown from Brighton is misleading.

As for the outdoors outbreaks, my whole point is that the evidence is that the large numbers visiting Dorset beaches didn't give rise to outbreaks. As for the demos, some have been reported and other not; given the size of them, I'm hardly surprised - when I used to live in London, it was common to be aware of road closures for xyz demo which wouldn't even get on the local news.

I agree 2 different forces but there own actions prove that point that whatever rules and regulations are, they don’t know what to follow unless it’s guesswork.

I just did a quick search on Brighton but I see that hundreds flocked to seaside?, and the other a RISE protester fined £200 but still though to me is people have had it plus if weather was ok then why not? If we say this in “normal” times then does come across stupid plus the media love a good spin in this anyway!

 

[philosopher]

Stay at Home isn't removed until 29th March so technically going to the beach when you aren't local to one (who knows what local means) isn't permitted but what you can do is meet someone for a coffee for example. If you live at Brighton you can go beachcombing now rather than just a planned walk along the beach for exercise. Actually its all pretty vague as my take is they know its unenforceable but if you give people the impression its law a fair proportion will comply so its has some benefit.

I do think it will be hard to enforce a stay local rule after the 8th as the outdoor recreation excuse is fairly wide ranging. If someone travels for a couple of hours to visit a beach, will a court conclude it was more to enjoy the beach and so legal or was it more to go on a long journey and therefore illegal.

 

[Watershed]

Stay at Home isn't removed until 29th March so technically going to the beach when you aren't local to one (who knows what local means) isn't permitted but what you can do is meet someone for a coffee for example.

Again, the notion of 'local' isn't in the law anywhere - it's something that has been made up in guidance.

The test is really more in line with what @philosopher says:

If someone travels for a couple of hours to visit a beach, will a court conclude it was more to enjoy the beach and so legal or was it more to go on a long journey and therefore illegal.

It's worth noting that there are some people would have to travel a number of hours to get to any beach. And depending on what outdoor recreational activity they're undertaking, they may have to travel even further than that.

If you live at Brighton you can go beachcombing now rather than just a planned walk along the beach for exercise. Actually its all pretty vague as my take is they know its unenforceable but if you give people the impression its law a fair proportion will comply so its has some benefit.

Beachcombing sounds like it involved walking, thus exercise, and was thus explicitly permitted (in the same vein as fishing).

 

[Cdd89]

Stay at Home isn't removed until 29th March so technically going to the beach when you aren't local to one (who knows what local means) isn't permitted but what you can do is meet someone for a coffee for example

It’s important not to lose sight of where the concept of “local” comes from; it all comes from the the “reasonably necessary” condition applied to any exemption to be outside your home.

In that sense it has been argued that it is not reasonably necessary to go further than the nearest uncrowded green space (or even your front door) to exercise. This is because it can be argued (not by me!) that the point of exercise is the physical aspect, not the surroundings.

By contrast open air recreation is primarily hedonistic and your requirements from that recreation can be quite particular. A good example might be someone who lives in zone 6 travelling to Central London to visit a royal park. That is ambiguous at present because it would been to be justified as being necessary to the exercise (which may be possible, e.g. mental health, unwilling to exercise elsewhere, meeting one other person), but not nearly so ambiguous to open air recreation where there is clearly not an equivalent facility and the individual isn’t travelling hundreds of miles. So it’s theoretically potentially unlawful but in practice very nebulous to prosecute, and it genuinely isn’t clear whether 10, 50 or 100 miles is “unreasonable”.

NB - this change in May 2020 marked the end of widespread police enforcement of travel restrictions and the police officially said as much.

 

[Spineynorman]

There was an amusing (to me anyway) quote on "Gogglebox" that the guy said he must book a day's holiday for the day in June after "all" of the restrictions are lifted, implying a big party .. It strikes me that, for many, the "cat is out of the bag", they are counting down days until pubs are open for outdoor service, indoor service, clubs open etc and the rest of the message (stay local / safe / hands, face, space ...) is just background noise now, especially with 20m first vaccinations and counting. Whether that is good or bad, whether Boris and his "team" knew that's how many would react and aren't too concerned because they can fall back on the "small print", whether there "may be trouble ahead" .. I don't know but a combination of that and the sunny weather (it is still winter !) has changed the mood and actions of many from my observations on my exercise / shopping expeditions. Will be interesting to see how this plays out now.

 

[bramling]

I agree 2 different forces but there own actions prove that point that whatever rules and regulations are, they don’t know what to follow unless it’s guesswork.

I just did a quick search on Brighton but I see that hundreds flocked to seaside?, and the other a RISE protester fined £200 but still though to me is people have had it plus if weather was ok then why not? If we say this in “normal” times then does come across stupid plus the media love a good spin in this anyway!

On the one hand it’s good to see people are ignoring “stay at home”, but on the other it’s infuriating when one knows that many of these people will be supporting lockdown, with all its associated costs. If they can be on the beach then I see little reason why, for example, non-essential shops can’t be open.

There was an amusing (to me anyway) quote on "Gogglebox" that the guy said he must book a day's holiday for the day in June after "all" of the restrictions are lifted, implying a big party .. It strikes me that, for many, the "cat is out of the bag", they are counting down days until pubs are open for outdoor service, indoor service, clubs open etc and the rest of the message (stay local / safe / hands, face, space ...) is just background noise now, especially with 20m first vaccinations and counting. Whether that is good or bad, whether Boris and his "team" knew that's how many would react and aren't too concerned because they can fall back on the "small print", whether there "may be trouble ahead" .. I don't know but a combination of that and the sunny weather (it is still winter !) has changed the mood and actions of many from my observations on my exercise / shopping expeditions. Will be interesting to see how this plays out now.

Rather than people throwing big-bang type parties, a subdued return to normal life would be far better.

Normal life is what we desperately need, not people attempting to continue the party mood, those who will by then have had 15 months of play. In any case, the tax rises will be quite a dampener on things.

 

[Scotrail12]

Quite a lot of big events which are usually in first half of summer are being postponed to Aug/Sept.

London Pride usually end of June/early July, now Sept 11th. Tempted to head down for that, we all need some celebrations after this year.

 

[brad465]

The decline in daily reported deaths is continuing to defy exponential decay, with the latest value of 290 a decrease of 32.3% in the last 7 days. Earlier this week it was 31%, having been around 25-27% declines most of the time since the peak in January. Hospital admissions are still going down in line more with exponential decay (currently -22.2%), but now we're charging through groups 5-9 hopefully a more linear decline here will follow suit soon.

The decrease in reported deaths was 32.3% yesterday, now after announcing 144 deaths today, the last 7 days have seen the rate of decline increase to 33.5%, practically a third. Come Easter I can see some serious questions about restrictions being asked if this keeps up, I wouldn't be surprised if daily deaths are around a dozen by then. Hospital admission drops are staying around 22%, but with over 20 million first vaccine doses exponential decay could soon be defied here as well.

 

[philosopher]

On the one hand it’s good to see people are ignoring “stay at home”, but on the other it’s infuriating when one knows that many of these people will be supporting lockdown, with all its associated costs. If they can be on the beach then I see little reason why, for example, non-essential shops can’t be open.



Rather than people throwing big-bang type parties, a subdued return to normal life would be far better.

Normal life is what we desperately need, not people attempting to continue the party mood, those who will by then have had 15 months of play.

Instead of being a big bang return to normality where everything goes to how it was in 2019 coupled with a lot of pent up partying in June, I think life will gradually return to normal from March onwards as restrictions ease and people gradually regain their confidence. So May could be somewhat like what last summer was. July may resemble something between what life was like last summer and 2019.

By the autumn life may have returned to something similar to what it was like in 2019. However this assumes there will be few long term changes as a result of the pandemic. If the pandemic does result in long term changes to life then life will never quite resemble what it did in 2019.

 

[Spineynorman]

At 3m vaccinations per week (say) that would take it to about 47m by the end of April, maybe everyone over the age of 25 although that may be skewed by all sorts of factors, reluctance of some communities / groups to have the vaccine, ongoing supply etc ? Be interesting to see what people's views will be then. Happy or impatient ? Scotrail12 interesting that - prudence ?

 

[duncanp]

The decrease in reported deaths was 32.3% yesterday, now after announcing 144 deaths today, the last 7 days have seen the rate of decline increase to 33.5%, practically a third. Come Easter I can see some serious questions about restrictions being asked if this keeps up, I wouldn't be surprised if daily deaths are around a dozen by then. Hospital admission drops are staying around 22%, but with over 20 million first vaccine doses exponential decay could soon be defied here as well.

It is not beyond the bounds of possibility that the timetable for easing of the lockdown will be accelerated.

I think Boris Johnson agreed to what was revealed last week just to keep Whitty, Vallance and all the SAGE bedwetters happy, and he would much rather have a quicker timetable. Perhaps he is just waiting for some suitable data to give him the excuse.

After all, it was officially denied today (by Rishi Sunak) that there will be any early easing of the lockdown, and you know you should - "..Never believe anything until it is officially denied.."

 

[brad465]

It is not beyond the bounds of possibility that the timetable for easing of the lockdown will be accelerated.

I think Boris Johnson agreed to what was revealed last week just to keep Whitty, Vallance and all the SAGE bedwetters happy, and he would much rather have a quicker timetable. Perhaps he is just waiting for some suitable data to give him the excuse.

After all, it was officially denied today (by Rishi Sunak) that there will be any early easing of the lockdown, and you know you should - "..Never believe anything until it is officially denied.."

Not to mention it would be a good boost to the Tory's local election credentials if he can ease things quicker than laid out. There were news reports just after the roadmap was announced suggesting Johnson tried to get lockdown ended by Easter (although not sure to what extent, I'm think the level currently due in mid-May), but SAGE held him back on that one.

Elsewhere I captured the below image while out this afternoon of 3 teenagers loitering near 2 police vehicles, with 2 police officers by the vehicles at the time. They all seemed to be minding each others' business, even though there are a few things I can think of that technically are not allowed under rules/guidelines you'd think the police would challenge them over, a sign maybe of the unenforceability/unwillingness by some forces to enforce:

(Apologies if the photo isn't clear, I didn't want to be suspicious taking this picture so took it from a distance.)

 

[duncanp]

Not to mention it would be a good boost to the Tory's local election credentials if he can ease things quicker than laid out. There were news reports just after the roadmap was announced suggesting Johnson tried to get lockdown ended by Easter (although not sure to what extent, I'm think the level currently due in mid-May), but SAGE held him back on that one.

I have said elsewhere that Boris will want to confirm that stage 2 of lockdown easing can go ahead before the end of March, in order to persuade restive Tory MPs to renew the Coronavirus legislation. This is one week earlier than planned under the roadmap.

Similarly he will want to confirm the go ahead for stage 3 before the local and national elections, in order to persuade restive voters to back the Conservatives.

 

[Class 33]

It is not beyond the bounds of possibility that the timetable for easing of the lockdown will be accelerated.

I think Boris Johnson agreed to what was revealed last week just to keep Whitty, Vallance and all the SAGE bedwetters happy, and he would much rather have a quicker timetable. Perhaps he is just waiting for some suitable data to give him the excuse.

After all, it was officially denied today (by Rishi Sunak) that there will be any early easing of the lockdown, and you know you should - "..Never believe anything until it is officially denied.."

Let's hope so. All the stats are absolutely tumbling now. So why can this roadmap not be sped up a bit? After all, when it's the other way of cases/hospital numbers/deaths increasing, they brought in extra restrictions and even full national lockdowns at just literally a day or two's notice. So it's unfair if things can't work the other way round. The way things are going now, it would certainly be feasible and realistic for each stage of easing of lockdown from 29th March to be brought forward a week. So all restrictions could end on 22nd May.

The vibe I get from walking about and seeing pictures in the media of lots of people out and about, is that everyone is very much looking forward to the summer and the easing of all these damaging draconian ridiculous restrictions. The day all these restrictions finally end just can't soon enough.

Oh god. Just as I've been typing this, I see BREAKING NEWS of "Brazil COVID 'variant of concern' discovered in UK, health officials say". Oh for god's sake! Now what's going to happen next with the planned easing of lockdown?!

 

[HSTEd]

I wouldn't expect any actual acceleration of the opening.
But he will certainly announce them earlier than he otherwise would have.

 

[bramling]

Let's hope so. All the stats are absolutely tumbling now. So why can this roadmap not be sped up a bit? After all, when it's the other way of cases/hospital numbers/deaths increasing, they brought in extra restrictions and even full national lockdowns at just literally a day or two's notice. So it's unfair if things can't work the other way round. The way things are going now, it would certainly be feasible and realistic for each stage of easing of lockdown from 29th March to be brought forward a week. So all restrictions could end on 22nd May.

The vibe I get from walking about and seeing pictures in the media of lots of people out and about, is that everyone is very much looking forward to the summer and the easing of all these damaging draconian ridiculous restrictions. The day all these restrictions finally end just can't soon enough.

Oh god. Just as I've been typing this, I see BREAKING NEWS of "Brazil COVID 'variant of concern' discovered in UK, health officials say". Oh for god's sake! Now what's going to happen next with the planned easing of lockdown?!

I think the fly in the ointment is still, for some, returning to proper work. Perhaps the budget speech next week will address that particular issue...