I'd expect a booster jab this autumn/ winter and then annual jabs for a few years after that at least,...
Why?
I think at least one 'annual booster' will be needed, maybe two (I'll say definitely two in the longer term, if the first one is rushed out for this autumn).
But annual for a few years? Really?
The virus doesn't mutate that much and even the SA variant does not completely evade the antibody response, as some people falsely try to claim.
The variants are not able to evade the T cell response (which appears to be the biggest factor in avoiding severe symptoms). If you want to hear this directly from Vincent Racaniello, a leading virologist, check this out:
1hr 9min 40sec:
My understanding is that an annual booster is not currently predicted to make much, if any, difference to severe symptoms, hospitalisations and deaths, and is more about trying to eliminate transmission.
Unless something really unexpected happens, the only reason we would do an annual booster for several years is if the aim is to actually eliminate transmission altogether, if that's even possible.
I'm not sure if the AZ vaccine can be altered to be prefusion stabilised but if so that is a potential improvement to that vaccine (I've heard several reports indicate that this is a reason why the AZ vaccine does not perform quite as well against the SA variant but I've not heard if this is an easy fix or not). Then there are adaptations for the known variants and potential adaptations for predicted future variants (there are only so many ways the virus can mutate and be viable, so it may be possible to predict these) and also, it may be possible to include other viral proteins so we get more T cell epitopes, to induce an even better T cell response.
So, without knowing what the timeframe for any such improvements may be, it's difficult to predict, but I don't see it as an annual thing, at least not beyond the next year or two.
Edit: I'll add that if it becomes necessary to have an annual booster, it would make sense to combine it with the annual influenza shot.
Why?
I think at least one 'annual booster' will be needed, maybe two (I'll say definitely two in the longer term, if the first one is rushed out for this autumn).
But annual for a few years? Really?
The virus doesn't mutate that much and even the SA variant does not completely evade the antibody response, as some people falsely try to claim.
The variants are not able to evade the T cell response (which appears to be the biggest factor in avoiding severe symptoms). If you want to hear this directly from Vincent Racaniello, a leading virologist, check this out:
The B cell epitopes are different to the T cell epitopes.
The spike protein has B cell epitopes which are recognised by antibodies and T cell epitopes which are recognised by T cells. The T cell epitopes are not changing. That's why the T cells still protect against the variants
My understanding is that an annual booster is not currently predicted to make much, if any, difference to severe symptoms, hospitalisations and deaths, and is more about trying to eliminate transmission.
Unless something really unexpected happens, the only reason we would do an annual booster for several years is if the aim is to actually eliminate transmission altogether, if that's even possible.
I'm not sure if the AZ vaccine can be altered to be prefusion stabilised but if so that is a potential improvement to that vaccine (I've heard several reports indicate that this is a reason why the AZ vaccine does not perform quite as well against the SA variant but I've not heard if this is an easy fix or not). Then there are adaptations for the known variants and potential adaptations for predicted future variants (there are only so many ways the virus can mutate and be viable, so it may be possible to predict these) and also, it may be possible to include other viral proteins so we get more T cell epitopes, to induce an even better T cell response.
So, without knowing what the timeframe for any such improvements may be, it's difficult to predict, but I don't see it as an annual thing, at least not beyond the next year or two.
Edit: I'll add that if it becomes necessary to have an annual booster, it would make sense to combine it with the annual influenza shot.
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