Super Thursday - Elections 2021

[Iskra]

I also think there's a core, fundamental problem of not knowing what the working man wants. The dynamic has shifted significantly in the last decade or so and Labour haven't adapted. It's quite a big question to ask, and I wouldn't want to be in Labour's shoes to try and address it; obviously they can't just become like Tories but at the same time they can't just lurch to populism either. And they're torn between two sides of the left in the party about that direction.

Saying that all of Europe has suffered with a demise in "social democratic" parties the last 5 years which might point to a wider cultural issue

I totally agree. They are in a real pickle that only a decisive leader with a clear vision can solve. Yet, they seem to have purged anyone of that description.

 

[Butts]

Massive swing to the Conservatives in a seat that was not expected to be competitive, Bannfshire and Buchan Coast.

Hardly surprising when Banff & Buchan has a Conservative MP who was elected with over 50% of the vote at the 2019 General Election.

 

[WelshBluebird]

Leanne Wood ex Plaid Cymru leader loses The Rhondda to Labour.

Not that surprised. The seat has swapped between the two since the start and the Labour candidate had a very strong local campaign (from friends and family who still live there I saw and heard a lot about her and basically nothing from Leanne Wood).

 

[Butts]

Not that surprised. The seat has swapped between the two since the start and the Labour candidate had a very strong local campaign (from friends and family who still live there I saw and heard a lot about her and basically nothing from Leanne Wood).

What's your take on The Lib Dems disappearing ?

Plaid seem similar to the SNP in years gone by mainly representing Rural Constituencies now Leanne has gone.

 

[WelshBluebird]

What's your take on The Lib Dems disappearing ?

Plaid seem similar to the SNP in years gone by mainly representing Rural Constituencies now Leanne has gone.

My knowledge about Welsh politics is mainly just local to the Rhondda (since that is where I grew up and still have friends and family), somewhere where the lib dems have never really had much support (it's been 14 years since they were the third party for the Senedd seat and 11 years for the Westminster seat), so I'm not sure I have much to say about them really!

In terms of Plaid, as I said that Senedd seat has flip flopped since the very start anyway so I wouldn't attach too much meaning to it. If the new MS does a poor job or sits on her hands a bit too much then I'm sure Plaid will have a good chance of winning it back next time around. But for them in a more general sense, without wanting to state the obvious, support for independence is a lot lower in Wales than Scotland so there's always that issue that plays into it too (despite despite goals, if they lean too hard into the independence angle they will lose badly).

 

[Butts]

My knowledge about Welsh politics is mainly just local to the Rhondda (since that is where I grew up and still have friends and family), somewhere where the lib dems have never really had much support (it's been 14 years since they were the third party for the Senedd seat and 11 years for the Westminster seat), so I'm not sure I have much to say about them really!

In terms of Plaid, as I said that Senedd seat has flip flopped since the very start anyway so I wouldn't attach too much meaning to it. If the new MS does a poor job or sits on her hands a bit too much then I'm sure Plaid will have a good chance of winning it back next time around. But for them in a more general sense, without wanting to state the obvious, support for independence is a lot lower in Wales than Scotland so there's always that issue that plays into it too (despite despite goals, if they lean too hard into the independence angle they will lose badly).

I'm watching BBC Wales up here in Scotland live as at the time it was the "only show in town"

The Welsh Border still pay's homage to it's liege Lord (As Scotland does).

Nice to see a different perspective.

I've changed my mind about "Darth Drakeford" as well, he seems like a decent guy.

 

[yorksrob]

One thing definitely working in Johnson's favour is the development of the AZ vaccine.

In this a British Government has directly invested in a product, developed by British scientists and manufactured by (partly) British companies. This does genuinely seem more like the Britain that built the V-Force and the IC125, rather than more recent Governments that have tended to flap around wailing "free markets, free markets" while all the countries assets and companies have been flogged off.

 

[brad465]

The turnout in Hartlepool and the Teeside Mayoralty was rather poor, is this a case of Labour voters not bothering to vote than anything else?

What does the "working man" want? Well I dunno what do we want? Ask 10 different people and you'll probably get 10 different and often contradictory things!

I definitely believe, despite what the press says, that while some votes have switched from Labour to Tory in those areas, it's not as big a factor as traditional Labour voters not turning up. There was also a suggestion I saw that not only did some Labour supporters not turn up in Hartlepool yesterday, but there were some Brexit Party voters last time who didn't either on the basis that Brexit is supposedly done.

Of course, like with most by-elections and local elections, if apathy was personified, they'd win by a landslide.

 

[Butts]

Oh God Angus Robertson is back as an MSP replacing Ruth Davidson in Edinburgh.

Starts pontificating about how the electorate have rejected Brexit et al..... whilst conveniently failing to mention he was rejected as an MP by the people of Moray in 2017 who sensibly opted for Douglas Ross the current Scottish Conservative Leader.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

I've changed my mind about "Darth Drakeford" as well, he seems like a decent guy.

Safe pair of hands clearly , and comes over very steady. Looks like a chapel deacon of the old school , and I can almost imagine him wanting to invite everyone after the presentation to "tea and welsh cakes - with social distancing - in the vestry"

I suspect history will comment positively on him eventually. I think he retires now or very soon. Done a good job as things were not looking great last Autumn.

 

[DerekC]

We have a lot of posters on here pontificating about how Labour doesn't know what the "working man" (NB women are now allowed to vote, by the way) wants, but none of them seems to be prepared to say what that is. I think the situation is actually very simple - Boris can claim to have delivered Brexit, which still attracts votes from those who wanted it, and his government has done one thing right in the pandemic, which is to buy lots of vaccine and allow the NHS to deliver it. He has been fortunate in the timing of this election. My guess is that the wheels will come off fairly rapidly once this government has to cope with running the country in a non-covid situation. Whether he will be able to bullsh*t his way through, we will see. It's interesting that most people (including Tories) don't believe a word he says, but a majority still votes for him. That seems like a fragile situation - people could turn against him very quickly if things get difficult.

 

[alex397]

Some interesting things happening in Kent. It seems in most areas, the Conservatives have lost support, including in those areas where the Tories have held their seats (although have made large gains in a few areas, such as a 20% rise in support in Romney Marsh ward). In Canterbury, the Tories have lost three seats to Labour (2) and Lib Dems (1), and Labour have held their other seats.
The most interesting gain I've seen so far is Swale East where the Greens have gained the seat from the Tories. Their percentage vote increase was +44.1%. Swale East is largely rural (does not include nearby towns of Faversham or Sittingbourne. They have also gained Ashford East from the Lib Dems with a 39% increase (the Brexit lorry park at Sevington is just on the border of this ward, I'm not sure how relevant that might be)

 

[brad465]

We have a lot of posters on here pontificating about how Labour doesn't know what the "working man" (NB women are now allowed to vote, by the way) wants, but none of them seems to be prepared to say what that is. I think the situation is actually very simple - Boris can claim to have delivered Brexit, which still attracts votes from those who wanted it, and his government has done one thing right in the pandemic, which is to buy lots of vaccine and allow the NHS to deliver it. He has been fortunate in the timing of this election. My guess is that the wheels will come off fairly rapidly once this government has to cope with running the country in a non-covid situation. Whether he will be able to bullsh*t his way through, we will see. It's interesting that most people (including Tories) don't believe a word he says, but a majority still votes for him. That seems like a fragile situation - people could turn against him very quickly if things get difficult.

Yes one term used to describe this is "rally around the leader", the same phenomenon that helped Thatcher win in 1983 after the Falklands War, but not many in Labour right now seem to be aware of this. One thing coming up that might have an impact on polling is Dominic Cummings giving evidence on the Covid response by Government later this month, which has reportedly got No.10 nervous (being the 26th May it'll be quite the anniversary marking for "Barnard Castle gate"); another possibility is if Brexit trade disruption arises due to increased demand once more covid restrictions ease, that'll be hard to avoid.

Elsewhere Labour holding the Vale of Glamorgan in Wales puts them on 28 (I didn't think they would so should be good news for them), so at worst will only lose 1 seat if the regional list offers them nothing more. If they manage to get to 30 or more this would be some solace for the party's national situation.

 

[HSTEd]

The SNP cannot now reach a majority on constituency seats alone, they now need at least one seat from the list.
Two unionist held constituencies remain undeclared, in Aberdeenshire West and Galloway and West Dumfries.

I can see them maybe winning Aberdeenshire West, although I doubt it.
I don't think they have a chance of winning in Dumfries.

They currently hold four seats on the list, their success in Ayr, and East Lothian will likely lose two of them. If their vote has split to the greens they will probably lose the third.

They have one seat in Highland and Islands on the list, which I assume they will keep.

I honestly think they will come up one short, but I dunno.

 

[Butts]

The SNP cannot now reach a majority on constituency seats alone, they now need at least one seat from the list.
Two unionist held constituencies remain undeclared, in Aberdeenshire West and Galloway and West Dumfries.

I can see them maybe winning Aberdeenshire West, although I doubt it.
I don't think they have a chance of winning in Dumfries.

They currently hold four seats on the list, there success in Ayr, and East Lothian will likely lose two of them. If their vote has split to the greens they will probably lose the third.

They have one seat in Highland and Islands on the list, which I assume they will keep.

I honestly think they will come up one short, but I dunno.

You've obviously done your homework now after the inept intervention you made earlier about Banffshire - well done.

I hope your supposition is correct.

 

[Northern_guard]

Batley and Spen ( assuming Brabin win the West Yorks mayoralty) will be a big challenge. A defeat there would be more damaging imo.

I'd much rather see Brabin fail to get the job as Mayor and have her lose the seat at the next GE.

Absolute waste of space she is. Such a shame we had a lovely MP like Jo Cox, only to have someone take over, who shows no interest in the area whatsoever. Oh no I take it back, she thinks only Batley exists as that's where her key votes comes from.

 

[TravelDream]

Leanne Wood ex Plaid Cymru leader loses The Rhondda to Labour.

Conservatives complete the eradication of The Liberal Democrats in Wales - Lloyd George must be turning in his grave.

Somehow, the Lib Dems have managed to sneak in on the list. I thought they wouldn't make it, but they did so the Lib Dems will continue to have representation in the next Welsh parliament.

With all constituencies and 12/20 of the regional seats counted, Labour have an almost majority with 30/60 seats. I don't know, but from that I have seen online, people are predicting
Labour 30
Conservative 16
Plaid Cymru 13
Lib Dem 1

This is very different to what Labour and the Conservatives achieved in England with Labour doing much better here,
The good news, in my opinion, is the abolish parties look very unlikely to get anything.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

You seem to have swerved the facetious nature of my reply and taken it literally. Well done.

Ah. Sorry if I missed that.

What is it you think voters want? Because I genuinely can't tell, and I've read enough voter opinions to stretch from here to Mars. I still can't figure out why they'd choose the incumbent corruption mob over a group of (on the whole) decent and well meaning politicians.

Well, come on then @DynamicSpirit - what motivates a large proportion of the electorate??

To answer both questions at the same time. With all the usual provisos about generalising too much, I think what mainly motivates many of the people Labour are losing is that they want:

• To see investment happening in their community
• To feel that they have the opportunity to work and make a good future for themselves/their families
• To feel that they, their community, and their country, are respected.

The problem for Labour is that, at the moment, the Tories are either giving or talking like they intent to give them all three things. Labour are not communicating that they are giving any of those things.

 

[TheBigD]

Labour isn't working

Getting rid of Keir won't solve the party's structural, cultural and existential problems

unherd.com

Long article but we'll worth a read.

 

[Butts]

I don't think the Conservatives are popular, just that Labour are deeply unpopular.

Labour no longer attempts to represent the working man (person), which it was formed to do. That's a lot of potential votes they are missing out on. They won't be winning any elections until they can reconcile those voters.

My take is that after having been a member of this Forum for many years, I have come to the conclusion that the majority of Labour Supporters on here are from the "Middle Class Wing" of the Party whether by Education, Occupation or Income. They are unable to relate to the everyday challenges faced by poor workers in the UK. When I say Poor I don't mean "NHS Poor" but National Living Wage Poor.

This is borne out when issues are raised that would be of great assistance to the poor that our Labour acolytes seem to have no comprehension of or simply don't care about as they are not personally affected.

Let's talk about SSP being raised to at least the The Minimum Wage Level so people are able to self-isolate without loss of income. Particularly important at the moment but surely an everyday requirement for people to afford a civilised lifestyle during periods of illness ?

Some form of reward for the poor who have worked through the pandemic often having to utilise Public Transport and exposing themselves to the associated risks to keep things going. No furlough payments or cushy home working surely this deserves some recognition ? NHS Staff and some Supermarket Workers benefitted but the majority got SFA.

These are just two issues I a Left Wing Conservative have raised and have sunk without trace in the middle class pseudo socialist miasma that exists within this forum. One of them degenerated into an argument about NHS Management Pension Grading's !!

So all you "Champagne Socialists" on Good Salaries, Index Linked Pensions and Generous Sick Pay Schemes are you surprised the peasants are revolting and want a bit more of the pie.

 

[Mojo]

Some interesting things happening in Kent. It seems in most areas, the Conservatives have lost support, including in those areas where the Tories have held their seats (although have made large gains in a few areas, such as a 20% rise in support in Romney Marsh ward). In Canterbury, the Tories have lost three seats to Labour (2) and Lib Dems (1), and Labour have held their other seats.
The most interesting gain I've seen so far is Swale East where the Greens have gained the seat from the Tories. Their percentage vote increase was +44.1%. Swale East is largely rural (does not include nearby towns of Faversham or Sittingbourne. They have also gained Ashford East from the Lib Dems with a 39% increase (the Brexit lorry park at Sevington is just on the border of this ward, I'm not sure how relevant that might be)

It isn’t just Kent; the Conservatives have lost a number of seats in Cambridgeshire (-8) & Surrey (-14) too.

 

[yorksrob]

Ashford East gone green ? I'd never have bet on that one !

 

[Senex]

There's an article in this morning's Guardian reporting a piece elsewhere by Labour MP Khalid Mahmood — https://www.theguardian.com/politic...-mahmood-says-party-has-become-london-centric — on the theme that the Labour Party is essentially out of touch eith many of those who might be expected to support it. One striking quotation is: "In an article for thinktank Policy Exchange, the MP for Birmingham Perry Barr said: “Labour has lost touch with ordinary British people. A London-based bourgeoisie, with the support of brigades of woke social media warriors, has effectively captured the party. / “They mean well, of course, but their politics – obsessed with identity, division and even tech utopianism – have more in common with those of Californian high society than the kind of people who voted in Hartlepool yesterday.” Do any of us here (who might like to support a Centre Left or Left-of-Centre party) feel that the sort of people Labour seems to be mainly concerned with are people with whom we feel we have little or nothing in common?

 

[Butts]

There's an article in this morning's Guardian reporting a piece elsewhere by Labour MP Khalid Mahmood — https://www.theguardian.com/politic...-mahmood-says-party-has-become-london-centric — on the theme that the Labour Party is essentially out of touch eith many of those who might be expected to support it. One striking quotation is: "In an article for thinktank Policy Exchange, the MP for Birmingham Perry Barr said: “Labour has lost touch with ordinary British people. A London-based bourgeoisie, with the support of brigades of woke social media warriors, has effectively captured the party. / “They mean well, of course, but their politics – obsessed with identity, division and even tech utopianism – have more in common with those of Californian high society than the kind of people who voted in Hartlepool yesterday.” Do any of us here (who might like to support a Centre Left or Left-of-Centre party) feel that the sort of people Labour seems to be mainly concerned with are people with whom we feel we have little or nothing in common?

I love it, summed it up succinctly are you there Darlorich ?

It isn’t just Kent; the Conservatives have lost a number of seats in Cambridgeshire (-8) & Surrey (-14) too.

Grasping at straws springs to mind, if you take solace in that Khalid Mahmood was spot on.

 

[tspaul26]

the Conservatives have lost a number of seats in Cambridgeshire (-8)

There is something of a local scandal involving the Cambridgeshire Conservatives at the moment involving (I think) the former leader or depute leader of the County Council.

I think it goes to show that local concerns tend to play a larger part in local elections.

It will be interesting to see the results for the combined authority election.

 

[takno]

My take is that after having been a member of this Forum for many years, I have come to the conclusion that the majority of Labour Supporters on here are from the "Middle Class Wing" of the Party whether by Education, Occupation or Income. They are unable to relate to the everyday challenges faced by poor workers in the UK. When I say Poor I don't mean "NHS Poor" but National Living Wage Poor.

This is borne out when issues are raised that would be of great assistance to the poor that our Labour acolytes seem to have no comprehension of or simply don't care about as they are not personally affected.

Let's talk about SSP being raised to at least the The Minimum Wage Level so people are able to self-isolate without loss of income. Particularly important at the moment but surely an everyday requirement for people to afford a civilised lifestyle during periods of illness ?

Some form of reward for the poor who have worked through the pandemic often having to utilise Public Transport and exposing themselves to the associated risks to keep things going. No furlough payments or cushy home working surely this deserves some recognition ? NHS Staff and some Supermarket Workers benefitted but the majority got SFA.

These are just two issues I a Left Wing Conservative have raised and have sunk without trace in the middle class pseudo socialist miasma that exists within this forum. One of them degenerated into an argument about NHS Management Pension Grading's !!

So all you "Champagne Socialists" on Good Salaries, Index Linked Pensions and Generous Sick Pay Schemes are you surprised the peasants are revolting and want a bit more of the pie.

While I don't disagree on any of those points, raising SSP to support isolation is something that Labour have been campaigning on, and I think a lot of Labour-aligned people on the forum have been keen on it too.

Furlough has also been more targeted at people on lower incomes than you give credit for. Sure I know a couple of reasonably well paid people who've sat it out a few months on furlough, but the vast majority of people have been in the retail and leisure sector and on or near minimum wage.

The particular problem on this forum is that the best-represented group on here who have been working throughout are railway staff, who tend to be paid well above minimum wage, have strong union representation that is good at arguing their corner, haven't been constantly worried about redundancy, and have generally had a less bad time of it than other key workers.

I do think that one of the problems Labour has is that they seem to be leaning on union leaders to provide them with their understanding of the lower-paid sectors of society. The most vulnerable workers are never unionised, and even the unionised ones are represented by Unite, whose leadership treats the members as a grim inconvenience that is best ignored.

The upshot is that nuts and bolts stuff like raising the minimum wage and SSP, free nursery spaces, a reasonable safety net fall by the wayside. Personally I don't think the Tories will provide any of that either, but it's painful watching the Labour ignore it and instead howl about nationalising stuff, and having "big ideas" like a National Education Service which owes more to Educating Rita than it does the real world.

All of that said, I don't think the results outside of Teeside are terrible. Council results often look pretty terrible without translating to much, and right now Labour looks like a party that's made up a lot of ground since Corbyn, but has faltered a little while the vaccination programme has been such a success. When Keir decides to have some big ideas I hope they're better ideas, but I don't think overall that the doom-mongering is really justified

 

[Typhoon]

Some interesting things happening in Kent. It seems in most areas, the Conservatives have lost support, including in those areas where the Tories have held their seats (although have made large gains in a few areas, such as a 20% rise in support in Romney Marsh ward). In Canterbury, the Tories have lost three seats to Labour (2) and Lib Dems (1), and Labour have held their other seats.
The most interesting gain I've seen so far is Swale East where the Greens have gained the seat from the Tories. Their percentage vote increase was +44.1%. Swale East is largely rural (does not include nearby towns of Faversham or Sittingbourne. They have also gained Ashford East from the Lib Dems with a 39% increase (the Brexit lorry park at Sevington is just on the border of this ward, I'm not sure how relevant that might be)

Ashford East gone green ? I'd never have bet on that one !

Perhaps not so surprising. One of the wards in Ashford East (which is a town ward) is represented by two Green councillors (one the successful candidate). The LibDem vote went from 1426 to 136 so probably a mass switch (different candidate). Ashford LibDems have no town councillors so maybe it was a surprise that they had a county councillor? The leadership of the council is largely drawn from the rural areas or small towns surrounding Ashford and local media gives the impression that this influences their decision making, which does not necessarily go down well in Ashford town. The opposition on the council is The Ashford Independent Group whose aim appears to be to keep party politics out of local government.
Voters might also have been influenced by the work that went on in the construction of the lorry park, complete with flashing lights and large vehicles going along narrow roads, for 24 hours a day because it was started too late and no-one thought that a site named 'Waterbrook' might flood!

Swale East is more interesting. There is a lot of house building going on in the area which appears to be unpopular because of the pressure put upon resources (largely roads), the local MP, Helen Whately, is opposed although some have unhelpfully pointed out to her that the council is simply following government policy. Like Ashford East, one ward within the constituency is represented by two Greens. The Greens seem to be following the policy once used by the Liberals, build from the bottom.

Greens also gained both seats for Tonbridge.

Regarding the Canterbury results, Labour are the predominant party in the city with 7 councillors, 3 LibDems, 1 Conservative. In a by-election in the city yesterday, the Conservative came fourth. The MP is also Labour. What is perhaps surprising is that the defeat of Conservatives is usually blamed on the student vote, I don't suppose so many voted this time.

In Swale West a county council cabinet member of some prominence was defeated by the Swale Independents candidate. He had been the UKIP candidate last time around!

Edit: Should have added - Romney Marsh - last time UKIP and an independent both got over 1,000 votes, the independent didn't stand and the UKIP vote collapsed. Conservatives and, to a lesser extent, Labour and Green, were the beneficiaries.

 

[WelshBluebird]

Yo answer both questions at the same time. With all the usual provisos about generalising too much, I think what mainly motivates many of the people Labour are losing is that they want:

• To see investment happening in their community
• To feel that they have the opportunity to work and make a good future for themselves/their families
• To feel that they, their community, and their country, are respected.

The problem for Labour is that, at the moment, the Tories are either giving or talking like they intent to give them all three things. Labour are not communicating that they are giving any of those things.

I guess the bit at least I am struggling with is that it's been the Tories in power for over a decade. So issues such as no investment in communities or lack of local work opportunities etc are all things that the Tories have either caused or haven't dealt with in over a decade (and actually in terms of investment in communities, some of those communities have literally voted to remove investment from their area by voting for Brexit). Those working class ex Labour voters who say they have been left behind - they aren't actually wrong in saying that. But they have been partly left behind by the Tories. So I really don't understand how they can then vote Tory to fix it. I suspect there's a degree of Labour councils struggling because it's them who have had to cut services or raise council tax because of central government cuts. But that can't be all of it.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Those working class ex Labour voters who say they have been left behind - they aren't actually wrong in saying that. But they have been partly left behind by the Tories. So I really don't understand how they can then vote Tory to fix it. I suspect there's a degree of Labour councils struggling because it's them who have had to cut services or raise council tax because of central government cuts. But that can't be all of it.

Yet on the other side of the coin is that Greater Manchester has Andy Burnham standing for re-election of Mayor, who was well known in the higher reaches of the Labour Party before taking his current role, who not so long ago raised his profile in a stance against the Government, wants to launch his pet plan for the re-regulation of the bus services et al in Greater Manchester, but has been quiet as the proverbial mouse in informing those voting for the next mayoral appointment in Greater Manchester that there will be a rise in Council Tax precepts in all ten areas of Greater Manchester to pay for the scheme.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

I guess the bit at least I am struggling with is that it's been the Tories in power for over a decade. So issues such as no investment in communities or lack of local work opportunities etc are all things that the Tories have either caused or haven't dealt with in over a decade (and actually in terms of investment in communities, some of those communities have literally voted to remove investment from their area by voting for Brexit). Those working class ex Labour voters who say they have been left behind - they aren't actually wrong in saying that. But they have been partly left behind by the Tories. So I really don't understand how they can then vote Tory to fix it. I suspect there's a degree of Labour councils struggling because it's them who have had to cut services or raise council tax because of central government cuts. But that can't be all of it.

Yeah that's an interesting point. I suspect what's happened is that Boris has been very successful at distinguishing himself and the Tory party today from the Tory party under David Cameron/Theresa May. People (whether rightly or wrongly) perceive it as a completely different leadership with a different direction and therefore don't blame the current Government for the failings under David Cameron.