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Super Thursday - Elections 2021

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brad465

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Anyone with a shred of intelligence can see that isn't what has happened. Rayner is deputy leader of the Labour party. She cant be sacked form that role. What has really happened is that she has been moved from party chair ( a backroom position in the Labour party) and will be given a more meaty shadow cabinet role. Lets not let facts get in the way eh?

It is interesting how the Tories and their enabling Clownbyn/Momentum chums have hyped this. It must be a different Angela Rayner they have spent months slagging off i assume!
I've seen reports that Starmer plans to put Rayner in a shadow cabinet position, possibly as Shadow Commons' leader to square up to JRM, but if this is what's going to happen, Starmer needs to hurry up and do it to calm things down again.
 
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DarloRich

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I've seen reports that Starmer plans to put Rayner in a shadow cabinet position, possibly as Shadow Commons' leader to square up to JRM, but if this is what's going to happen, Starmer needs to hurry up and do it to calm things down again.

the real question is why it took the leaders office so long to rebut an obviously silly story.
 

Bantamzen

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the real question is why it took the leaders office so long to rebut an obviously silly story.
You're asking all the wrong questions. You should be asking why Starmer isn't falling on his sword after the spectacular own goal he's scored by losing ground to a ruling party in full self-destructive mode. Instead of sacking, erm "reshuffling" he should be accepting responsibility and stepping aside. However this won't happen whilst some party supporters continue to deflect from the problem at the heart of Labour.
 

DarloRich

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You're asking all the wrong questions. You should be asking why Starmer isn't falling on his sword after the spectacular own goal he's scored by losing ground to a ruling party in full self-destructive mode. Instead of sacking, erm "reshuffling" he should be accepting responsibility and stepping aside. However this won't happen whilst some party supporters continue to deflect from the problem at the heart of Labour.
this is a very silly take. Try again. I suspect you want Magic Grandpa and his clown army back. That went well.
 

HSTEd

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It's far more likely Starmer wanted to "promote" her away from the Party Chair, simply so he can gain greater Blairite control of the party apparat.

Once she is prominent in the Shadow Cabinet she can easily be scapegoated for the next local election disaster that Labour face, and without the party chair position the resulting purge will be far more capable of sweeping away the left and ensuring total and eternal Blairite control of the party.

EDIT:

And people who think this is as low as Labour can sink are sadly mistaken, in England the 2019 result is still far better than 1983.
 

Purple Orange

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I'll have a pint of what you're drinking, that's got to to be strong stuff if you think that Starmer should hang around to lose even more support...
Who would you prefer to see installed as leader in that case? In the long view, I see no reason for Starmer to go - the Tories are having a vaccine bounce and in the intervening time, he managed to get Labour to 40% in the polls. Over the coming three years, what reason is there that fortunes will not change for the better? The answer is that there is no reason.
 

Typhoon

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It's far more likely Starmer wanted to "promote" her away from the Party Chair, simply so he can gain greater Blairite control of the party apparat.

Once she is prominent in the Shadow Cabinet she can easily be scapegoated for the next local election disaster that Labour face, and without the party chair position the resulting purge will be far more capable of sweeping away the left and ensuring total and eternal Blairite control of the party.

EDIT:

And people who think this is as low as Labour can sink are sadly mistaken, in England the 2019 result is still far better than 1983.
Why? The likes of Jonathan Ashworth, Anneliese Dodds, Rachel Reeves and Lisa Nandy have not been scapegoated. I would have thought that being away from local parties would protect her?
 

HSTEd

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Why? The likes of Jonathan Ashworth, Anneliese Dodds, Rachel Reeves and Lisa Nandy have not been scapegoated.
Those people are either not left wingers, or are prominent remainers.

Starmer likes those people because they are mostly from the same faction as him.

I would have thought that being away from local parties would protect her?

Why would it do that?
 

Bantamzen

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Who would you prefer to see installed as leader in that case? In the long view, I see no reason for Starmer to go - the Tories are having a vaccine bounce and in the intervening time, he managed to get Labour to 40% in the polls. Over the coming three years, what reason is there that fortunes will not change for the better? The answer is that there is no reason.
Quite honestly, I don't know. There isn't anyone who really stands out for me. Luckily that isn't a choice I have to make. However Starmer has to go if Labour are to ever become a viable opposition. Right now the Tories are laughing their socks off, and are getting too easy a ride.
 

Typhoon

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Those people are either not left wingers, or are prominent remainers.

Starmer likes those people because they are mostly from the same faction as him.

Why would it do that?
Because a loss for an opposition party at a local election might be down to local issues, a disorganised campaign, a popular government or completely stupid opposition policies. Provided she avoids the latter, she will be OK, she has been elected Deputy Leader of the Party, she should stand in for Starmer at PMQs (if she doesn't it will not look good). That is a role which cannot be taken away from her; Starmer has enough on his plate with the Corbynistas, he can do without any more enemies.
 

birchesgreen

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Moving her on from the party chair role is fine, there simply has to be a better way to do it than the nonsense last night. The optics were terrible.

Btw how did the fringe anti-lockdown candidates do in the London mayor election, some folks in the covid sub-forum seemed quite confident there would be a big surprise there. I'm only surprised Fox got more votes than Binface who was a far more sensible candidate.
 
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Purple Orange

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Quite honestly, I don't know. There isn't anyone who really stands out for me. Luckily that isn't a choice I have to make. However Starmer has to go if Labour are to ever become a viable opposition. Right now the Tories are laughing their socks off, and are getting too easy a ride.

The only person I see as doing a better job right now would be Andy Burnham, but he isn’t an MP. However I don’t think Starmer needs to go at all. A few months ago, before the vaccine boost, the Tories were on a downward spiral and Starmer on the ascendency. It’s a knee jerk reaction to an election that came at the right time for Johnson and the wrong time for Starmer. Plus look at the gains Labour made in the mayoral elections too - its not as bad for Labour as the headline from Hartlepool suggests.

Moving her on from the party chair role is fine, there simply has to be a better way to do it than the nonsense last night. The optics were terrible.

Btw how did the fringe anti-lockdown candidates do in the London mayor election, some folks in the covid sub-forum seemed quite confident there would be a big surprise there. I'm only surprised Fox got more votes than Binface who was a far more sensible candidate.

The nonsense of the optics came from the Corbynite side of the party. Nothing wrong with what Starmer did in my humble opinion.
 

birchesgreen

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The nonsense of the optics came from the Corbynite side of the party. Nothing wrong with what Starmer did in my humble opinion.
The nonsense optics came from virtually all newspaper sites and news outlets saying she had been sacked in bold headlines. I'm not sure what that has to do with Corbyistas unless they now run the BBC News, Telegraph, Times et cetera.
 

DarloRich

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I'm only surprised Fox got more votes than Binface who was a far more sensible candidate.
Fox got more votes than Binface sadly; but Fox was in turn beaten by the guy who wants to make Freddos cost 5p so it isn't all bad news. UKIPPY Gammons showed poorly.
 

takno

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Quite honestly, I don't know. There isn't anyone who really stands out for me. Luckily that isn't a choice I have to make. However Starmer has to go if Labour are to ever become a viable opposition. Right now the Tories are laughing their socks off, and are getting too easy a ride.
These elections aren't actually that bad outside of a rather concentrated area of the northeast. Two mayors have gone to Labour, the position in Wales is better and the position in Scotland is only slightly worse, even with our own toxic leader only being replaced two months before polling day. There's really no reason for Labour to buy into the dire conclusions the press had already drawn before the votes were even cast. In addition, most of the blame still lies with a combination of the previous toxic leadership and the difficulty of changing anybody's mind or mounting an effective campaign in Covid times.

This whole cycle of resigning out of a sense of guilt when a single election doesn't go very well has never done Labour any favours either. If Milliband had hung around for a year after 2015 for example we could have had some intelligent discussions about where the party was going, and avoided the shambles we ended up with. Indeed, the whole country would probably have been better off if he'd stayed in post through the Brexit referendum.

If there was an outstanding candidate to switch to then I'd say go for it, but as it is we'd probably end up with another pointless battle of left vs centrist non-entities. Worst case we might even actually end up with Long-Bailey
 

birchesgreen

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I think the "Labour disaster" narrative is being driven a lot by the right wing press and latched onto by various folk who have axes to grind. I'm not sure why Hartlepool was a shock result, Labour only won last time because the right wing vote was split. Not saying it was a good night for the party but the doom and gloom is a bit OTT especially considering the strange conditions of the country over the last year.
 

alex397

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I think the "Labour disaster" narrative is being driven a lot by the right wing press and latched onto by various folk who have axes to grind. I'm not sure why Hartlepool was a shock result, Labour only won last time because the right wing vote was split. Not saying it was a good night for the party but the doom and gloom is a bit OTT especially considering the strange conditions of the country over the last year.
I agree, while Labour have done really badly, they have also won quite a few seats from the Tories, as well as doing well in some mayoral elections. Yet again, the media fails to be in any way nuanced. Just looking at the headlines, you’d think Labour are now completely gone and Angela Raynor has been ‘sacked’ when in reality she hasn’t and is still deputy leader.

Looking in the South East, the Tories have lost popularity. Most wards having a minus percentage, including in wards they have held. I doubt the Daily Mail will report that
 

takno

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I think the "Labour disaster" narrative is being driven a lot by the right wing press and latched onto by various folk who have axes to grind. I'm not sure why Hartlepool was a shock result, Labour only won last time because the right wing vote was split. Not saying it was a good night for the party but the doom and gloom is a bit OTT especially considering the strange conditions of the country over the last year.
I notice there was also an attempt to post the day as a catastrophe for the Lib-Dems, which is looking very premature right now since they've only lost 0.5% of their councillors, and actually gained control of a council
 

JamesT

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I notice there was also an attempt to post the day as a catastrophe for the Lib-Dems, which is looking very premature right now since they've only lost 0.5% of their councillors, and actually gained control of a council

In relative terms that’s pretty poor. The Conservatives have been in power for a while now, opposition parties should be welcoming droves of disaffected voters.
 

Class465pacer

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So the full London Mayoral results are:
Sadiq Khan (Labour) - 1,013,721 (40.0%), 1,206,034 including second preference votes (55.2%)

Shaun Bailey (Conservative) - 893,051 (35.3%), 977,601 including second preference votes (44.8%)

Sian Berry (Green) - 197,976 (7.8%)

Luisa Porritt (Liberal Democrat) - 111,716 (4.4%)

Niko Omilana (Independent) - 49,628 (2.0%)

Laurence Fox (The Reclaim Party) - 47,634 (1.9%)

Brian Rose (London Real Party) - 31,111 (1.2%)

Richard Hewison (Rejoin EU) - 28,012 (1.1%)

Count Binface (Count Binface Party) - 24,775 (1.0%)

Mandu Reid (Women's Equality Party) - 21,182 (0.8%)

Piers Corbyn (Let London Live) - 20,604 (0.8%)

Vanessa Hudson (Animal Welfare Party) - 16,826 (0.7%)

Peter Gammons (UK Independence Party - 14,393 (0.6%)

Farah London (Independent) - 11,869 (0.5%)

David Kurten (Heritage Party) - 11,025 (0.4%)

Nims Obunge (Independent) - 9,682 (0.4%)

Steve Kelleher (Social Democratic Party) - 8,764 (0.3%)

Kam Balayev (Renew) - 7,774 (0.3%)

Max Fosh (Independent) - 6,309 (0.2%)

Valerie Brown (Burning Pink) - 5,305 (0.2%)
 

tommy2215

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I agree, while Labour have done really badly, they have also won quite a few seats from the Tories, as well as doing well in some mayoral elections. Yet again, the media fails to be in any way nuanced. Just looking at the headlines, you’d think Labour are now completely gone and Angela Raynor has been ‘sacked’ when in reality she hasn’t and is still deputy leader.

Looking in the South East, the Tories have lost popularity. Most wards having a minus percentage, including in wards they have held. I doubt the Daily Mail will report that
The thing is, none of the places where Labour have done relatively well are places where they need to win in order to win the next general election. In battlegrounds like the West Midlands, Derbyshire, North West (outside GM), the North East Labour have made heavy losses. Piling on the votes in Bristol, Manchester, London and Liverpool won't help them in 2024.
 

Busaholic

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Why? The likes of Jonathan Ashworth, Anneliese Dodds, Rachel Reeves and Lisa Nandy have not been scapegoated. I would have thought that being away from local parties would protect her?
I think you may be a bit premature about Anneliese Dodds not being scapegoated (unfairly imo) with Rachel Reeves tipped to replace her. Ashworth inspires less confidence in me than most of them: Hancock should be down and, more importantly, OUT by now, but gets more criticism from Jeremy Hunt, often coded, than from Labour so-called top brass. Lisa Nandy is not responsible for the current situation and her election as leader would have meant the Redwall problem had been addressed, even if it meant little in terms of the end result at Hartlepool. Starmer inviting Mandelson to find the town on the map again was an absolute insult to the population, and not something I can imagine Nandy or Rayner doing in a million years.
 
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brad465

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Fox got more votes than Binface sadly; but Fox was in turn beaten by the guy who wants to make Freddos cost 5p so it isn't all bad news. UKIPPY Gammons showed poorly.
Fox still got a low enough proportion to lose his £10,000 deposit (just).
 

Butts

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For your Benefit @Butts, here is my full result below - and thanks to Labour standing 2 candidates (unlike when there was also a By-Election in 2019), our collective vote went up 9%!

On that basis and that the Conservatives vote share on 2019 fell by 3%; in the ward with there strongest support anywhere in Wolves and with the highest turnout, I am quite pleased.


Votes Cast: 7,493

Ballot Papers Issued: 4,210

Turnout: 46.64%


Votes and Percentages Per Candidate:

Ellis Turrell – Conservatives: 2,505 – 33.43%

Jonathan Crofts – Conservatives: 2,470 – 32.97%


WALKER DARKE – Labour Party: 894 – 11.93%

KASHMIRE HAWKER – Labour Party: 789 – 10.53%


Andrea Cantrill – Green Party: 326 – 4.36%

Chris Brookes – Green Party: 230 –3.07%

Peter Hollis – Liberal Democrats: 162 – 2.16%

David Marsh – Liberal Democrats: 116 – 1.55%



Votes and Percentages Per Party:

Conservatives: 4,975 – 66.4%


Labour Party: 1,683 – 22.46%

Green Party: 556 – 7.43%

Liberal Democrats: 278 – 3.71%

Yes, I see they squeezed in with 66% of the Vote :E

Better luck next time - at least you beat The LD's and Greens !!
 

takno

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In relative terms that’s pretty poor. The Conservatives have been in power for a while now, opposition parties should be welcoming droves of disaffected voters.
This particular lot of Conservatives have been in power for 16 very unusual months, and I don't think people are all that inclined to view the current lot as the same government as the last lot. You might hope for a bit of a bounce, but I don't think not getting one is a spectacularly bad result, particularly in a local election where Covid controls have made it really difficult to get local messages out.
 

Butts

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I notice there was also an attempt to post the day as a catastrophe for the Lib-Dems, which is looking very premature right now since they've only lost 0.5% of their councillors, and actually gained control of a council

Eh, have a look over the Border either West or North !!

By the way what happened regarding your prediction of List Seats for the LD's in Scotland ?

this is a very silly take. Try again. I suspect you want Magic Grandpa and his clown army back. That went well.

Classic.....I love it ....are they the the "London based bourgeoisie........."
 
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Purple Orange

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These elections aren't actually that bad outside of a rather concentrated area of the northeast. Two mayors have gone to Labour, the position in Wales is better and the position in Scotland is only slightly worse, even with our own toxic leader only being replaced two months before polling day. There's really no reason for Labour to buy into the dire conclusions the press had already drawn before the votes were even cast. In addition, most of the blame still lies with a combination of the previous toxic leadership and the difficulty of changing anybody's mind or mounting an effective campaign in Covid times.

This whole cycle of resigning out of a sense of guilt when a single election doesn't go very well has never done Labour any favours either. If Milliband had hung around for a year after 2015 for example we could have had some intelligent discussions about where the party was going, and avoided the shambles we ended up with. Indeed, the whole country would probably have been better off if he'd stayed in post through the Brexit referendum.

If there was an outstanding candidate to switch to then I'd say go for it, but as it is we'd probably end up with another pointless battle of left vs centrist non-entities. Worst case we might even actually end up with Long-Bailey
This all day long. Some people, stoked by the press, love to lose their head. In another sense, a lot of capital has been poured in to the Tories from traditional Labour seats which really means they need to deliver something meaningful by 2024. If the next GE comes along and no positive changes have been achieved, the goodwill the Tories have built up will evaporate.
 

WelshBluebird

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The thing is, none of the places where Labour have done relatively well are places where they need to win in order to win the next general election. In battlegrounds like the West Midlands, Derbyshire, North West (outside GM), the North East Labour have made heavy losses. Piling on the votes in Bristol, Manchester, London and Liverpool won't help them in 2024.
Mostly you are right. But the Bristol comment needs a bit more explanation. Bristol itself absolutely (though it looks possible the council may go Green based on the results current being announced!), but the area around Bristol (South Gloucestershire & Bath and North East Somerset) is typically Tory or Lib Dem so for Labour to win the WECA mayorship is a pretty big deal. Especially considering North East Somerst is Rees-Moggs Westminster seat.
 
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