Should restrictions be eased fully if Indian Variant case rates do not decline before June 21st?

[duncanp]

If it is spreading in schools, perhaps it is time to start vaccinating teenagers, or at the very least approve one of more of the vaccines for teenagers and aim to vaccinate them at the start of the next school year. The Pfizer vaccine has been approved for 12 to 18 year olds in the United States and EU.

If it is spreading in schools, I think it might be prudent to start the summer holidays a few weeks early.

From what I remember of my school days (>40 years ago !!) the last few weeks of the summer term were spent in doing things like day trips and school sports days rather than teaching the curriculum. If this is still the case, it wouldn't cause too much disruption to education to have an early start to the holidays, although I recognise it would cause some inconvenience to working parents.

As to the Indian variant having a greater risk of hospitalisation than the Kent one, it has been emphasised that the figure of 2.6 times is only provisional, and more data is needed before a more accurate figure can be determined.

The other thing to point out is that it is the absolute probability that matters. For example, the probability of winning 5 balls on the National Lottery is six times greater than winning 6 balls, but both probabilities are vanishingly small. As we know that vaccines are effective against the Indian variant, albeit less so that the Kent variant, the number of people who are exposed to this higher probability of hospitalisation is falling all the time. It is the number of people exposed to the probability of hospitalisation, multiplied by the probability of hospitalisation, that determines the number of hospitalisation.

Also, I have seen some reports that people who are hospitalised with the Indian variant are not a seriously ill as those with other variants, and are less likely to need mechanical ventilation, for example. So even though more people may be hospitalised, they are likely to spend less time in hospital overall, which keeps the total number of patients down, and ultimately this is what matters. I hope the government takes this into account when making decision.

So I still think that there will be some easing of restrictions on 21st June, but that some measures will remain in place for a while longer, perhaps until two weeks after all adults have been offered a first dose of the vaccine.

I also think that school staff and university students should be prioritsed for a second dose of the vaccine if they have not already had one. This is because we did see an increase in cases last year after schools and universities went back, and it would be wise to do what we reasonably can to mitigate against the risk of the same thing happening this year.

 

[takno]

If it is spreading in schools, I think it might be prudent to start the summer holidays a few weeks early.

From what I remember of my school days (>40 years ago !!) the last few weeks of the summer term were spent in doing things like day trips and school sports days rather than teaching the curriculum. If this is still the case, it wouldn't cause too much disruption to education to have an early start to the holidays, although I recognise it would cause some inconvenience to working parents

Schools have changed a lot. Even if they hadn't, half of this year was already online, and a chunk of the year before was missed entirely - there's a lot of catching up to do.

In any case, kids are only just getting back into a proper routine. After spending a year slowly being turned into a generation of semi-sociopathic monsters. Closing schools early would be absolutely unforgivable

 

[Jamesrob637]

I only didn't tick the very top option because I think WFH can stay to an extent. If there was an option "scrap all restrictions but still encourage WFH" then I'd be firmly in that ballpark. We don't need everybody in office every day (WFH a couple of days per week was slowly creeping in even pre-COVID)

 

[sjpowermac]

Schools have changed a lot. Even if they hadn't, half of this year was already online, and a chunk of the year before was missed entirely - there's a lot of catching up to do.

In any case, kids are only just getting back into a proper routine. After spending a year slowly being turned into a generation of semi-sociopathic monsters. Closing schools early would be absolutely unforgivable

Agreed, young people need as much normality as possible and certainly shouldn’t be expected to give up even more of their education.

 

[takno]

I only didn't tick the very top option because I think WFH can stay to an extent. If there was an option "scrap all restrictions but still encourage WFH" then I'd be firmly in that ballpark. We don't need everybody in office every day (WFH a couple of days per week was slowly creeping in even pre-COVID)

If you think that encouraging WFH is a laudable policy goal independently of Covid then by all means talk to your MP and campaign for it as a separate issue.

Until it's separated out from an emergency response to massive health threat, then I really don't think we can actually restart the sensible discussions we were having about it before the pandemic. Right now it just looks like you're willing to destroy the economy in support of a campaign for a slightly better work/life balance for the relatively small number of people in this position

 

[ChrisC]

If it is spreading in schools, I think it might be prudent to start the summer holidays a few weeks early.

From what I remember of my school days (>40 years ago !!) the last few weeks of the summer term were spent in doing things like day trips and school sports days rather than teaching the curriculum. If this is still the case, it wouldn't cause too much disruption to education to have an early start to the holidays, although I recognise it would cause some inconvenience to working parents.

I can only speak in regards to primary schools, but the days when the last part of the summer term was spent doing day trips and school sports, if it ever was like that, ended 20-30 years ago.

The demands and requirements of the National Curriculum means that all parts of the school year are of equal importance in the delivering of this curriculum. There is not time, even during the last few weeks of the school year to stop teaching the curriculum for any significant periods. I think especially this year, with all the time that children have missed in school, it is especially important that schools continue as normal for as long as possible. I’ve retired now, but a few years before I retired we had a full OFSTED inspection during the 2nd week of July so there was no winding down during the last few weeks that year.

School sports days and educational visits are still very important and they also will be of great value this year in helping children to socialise and co-operate after many children have spent months at home without mixing with others.

 

[yorksrob]

Do they still get to see a 1970's childrens film on a wonky projector on the last day of the school year ?

 

[duncanp]

Agreed, young people need as much normality as possible and certainly shouldn’t be expected to give up even more of their education.

Point taken.

In any case, the fact that schools are going to break up within the next few weeks will help to reduce transmission of the virus, which will have a downward effect on the number of new cases.

 

[Jamesrob637]

If you think that encouraging WFH is a laudable policy goal independently of Covid then by all means talk to your MP and campaign for it as a separate issue.

Until it's separated out from an emergency response to massive health threat, then I really don't think we can actually restart the sensible discussions we were having about it before the pandemic. Right now it just looks like you're willing to destroy the economy in support of a campaign for a slightly better work/life balance for the relatively small number of people in this position

Most people work at their most productive when they have a choice (we're not in North Korea!)

I appreciate that there are many jobs where WFH isn't an option, or can only be done to a limited degree, but even a limited degree will help many.

 

[westv]

If you think that encouraging WFH is a laudable policy goal independently of Covid then by all means talk to your MP and campaign for it as a separate issue.

Until it's separated out from an emergency response to massive health threat, then I really don't think we can actually restart the sensible discussions we were having about it before the pandemic. Right now it just looks like you're willing to destroy the economy in support of a campaign for a slightly better work/life balance for the relatively small number of people in this position

If you WFH you still need to eat and drink and you'll probably still go out to do those things too so the money still goes back into the economy but not via the same places as being in an office.

 

[Jamesrob637]

If you WFH you still need to eat and drink and you'll probably still go out to do those things too so the money still goes back into the economy but not via the same places as being in an office.

Eateries in the suburbs will be booming!

 

[ChrisC]

Do they still get to see a 1970's childrens film on a wonky projector on the last day of the school year ?

No, but I do remember them and the clicking noise it used to continually make as the large reels of film passed through.

 

[sjpowermac]

Point taken.

In any case, the fact that schools are going to break up within the next few weeks will help to reduce transmission of the virus, which will have a downward effect on the number of new cases.

Thank you, appreciated

 

[duncanp]

Thank you, appreciated

It is 40 years since I left school and I don't have any kids of my own, so I am somewhat out of touch with what happens in schools these days.

 

[LAX54]

I believe that liberation day should be postponed to the 1st day of the school summer holidays.

This will provide time for many more people to have 1st or 2nd jabs, and for the Indian variant to subside.

Furthermore, there will be less mixing as schools will be closed, and on the whole be warmer being further into summer.

I incidentally disbelieve in "discrimination" against places with higher case numbers.

The Indian will subside, to be taken over by the Thai variant !

 

[Chris125]

All previous estimates have been quietly revised down significantly after a few weeks, in the balance of probabilities we'll probably see the same. The idea of a mutant-super-vaccine-evading virus is scaremongering waffle for the front page of the gutter-press, not scientific reality.

That's my view on most variants too, and it's what I hoped (and many assumed) for this one... but while other variants have barely made headway in recent months Delta has come along like the proverbial freight train and become our dominant strain in weeks - these graphs really illustrate how this one is on a whole different level:

https://twitter.com/Dr_D_Robertson/status/1400509426000334849

Indeed, but there is no need to continue with damaging and ineffective restrictions until that point. We we need to make sure we balance the harms of these measures against the harms of the virus; something we have been incredibly poor at over the last 12 months.

We'll have to see what the modelling says, but time after time we've waited so long to do anything meaningful that only draconian actions suffice. I can't believe we'd make that mistake again so close to the finishing line of our vaccination programme.

 

[bramling]

Until it's separated out from an emergency response to massive health threat, then I really don't think we can actually restart the sensible discussions we were having about it before the pandemic. Right now it just looks like you're willing to destroy the economy in support of a campaign for a slightly better work/life balance for the relatively small number of people in this position

Nail firmly on the head.

 

[nlogax]

If you WFH you still need to eat and drink and you'll probably still go out to do those things too so the money still goes back into the economy but not via the same places as being in an office.

A quid on a loaf bread plus whatever the cost of fillings for a whole week versus three quid for a sandwich per day. It's a different type and scale of expenditure.

 

[bramling]

If it is spreading in schools, I think it might be prudent to start the summer holidays a few weeks early.

From what I remember of my school days (>40 years ago !!) the last few weeks of the summer term were spent in doing things like day trips and school sports days rather than teaching the curriculum. If this is still the case, it wouldn't cause too much disruption to education to have an early start to the holidays, although I recognise it would cause some inconvenience to working parents.

I really don't think closing schools should even be on the table. We've done it twice already, personally I'm not sure it was the right decision (especially the second time), however I can see how a case could be made at a time when we were getting death figures in the high hundreds. We're not getting that now, and unless something drastic goes wrong with the vaccine efficacy we're not going to be seeing that again. Education simply shouldn't be being disrupted, and as you allude to yourself it isn't just education but the knock-on effects on working parents.

Having already missed many weeks, the last thing children need is to miss more. The current focus should be both on maximising the time children spend in school, and making the most of that time.

 

[westv]

A quid on a loaf bread plus whatever the cost of fillings for a whole week versus three quid for a sandwich per day. It's a different type and scale of expenditure.

A lot of people will eat their own sandwiches in the office too.

 

[nlogax]

A lot of people will eat their own sandwiches in the office too.

I suppose it depends what industry you're in. Before the Unpleasantness I rarely used to see anyone bring in their own lunch, especially with Pret, Leon and Itsu all within a quick walk of the office.

 

[birchesgreen]

I suppose it depends what industry you're in. Before the Unpleasantness I rarely used to see anyone bring in their own lunch, especially with Pret, Leon and Itsu all within a quick walk of the office.

Yeah well there are plenty of people who do that and spend 5+ quid a day on lunch, often smile when i later hear them bleating that they have no money left late in the month.

 

[takno]

A lot of people will eat their own sandwiches in the office too.

All of which is entirely beside the point. WFH could be the best thing since sliced bread, but if so it should be standing or falling on its own merits as a policy. Forcing people to do it in response to a pandemic is not going to convince anybody. If people still want to go back to the office after more than a year of trying the alternatives then maybe they just don't like WFH.

 

[nlogax]

Yeah well there are plenty of people who do that and spend 5+ quid a day on lunch, often smile when i later hear them bleating that they have no money left late in the month.

True - but it's money not going back into the economy at the same scale while 100% wfh is a thing for many companies.

 

[sjpowermac]

I really don't think closing schools should even be on the table. We've done it twice already, personally I'm not sure it was the right decision (especially the second time), however I can see how a case could be made at a time when we were getting death figures in the high hundreds. We're not getting that now, and unless something drastic goes wrong with the vaccine efficacy we're not going to be seeing that again. Education simply shouldn't be being disrupted, and as you allude to yourself it isn't just education but the knock-on effects on working parents.

Having already missed many weeks, the last thing children need is to miss more. The current focus should be both on maximising the time children spend in school, and making the most of that time.

I don’t believe that closing schools is on the table, other than being mentioned by one poster, who has since retracted the idea.

It is 40 years since I left school and I don't have any kids of my own, so I am somewhat out of touch with what happens in schools these days.

Yes, I understand

There’s currently a great deal of pressure to get classes caught up, especially those with exams next year. I forgot to mention, most state schools in England don’t finish until the third week in July, so still seven weeks to go.

 

[yorksrob]

No, but I do remember them and the clicking noise it used to continually make as the large reels of film passed through.

Ah, they should keep up the old traditions !

Mind you, ours usually ended up getting cancelled as a collective punishment.

 

[joncombe]

Mark Drakeford now dropping hints that Social Distancing likely to remain in Wales to the end of 2021.

Social distancing could continue in Wales for the rest of the year, the first minister has said.
Mark Drakeford says it remains one of the "strongest defences" against Covid.
The warning comes after the news outdoor sporting events and concerts can resume from Monday for up to 10,000 people sitting or 4,000 standing.
Extended households can also expand to include a third and up to 30 people will be able to meet outdoors, including in private gardens.
But, Mr Drakeford says he is "not certain there is a huge thirst" for people to give up safeguards, including the 2m social distancing rule.

If it continues beyond the summer the chances of it ending at the end of the year are zero. In the middle of winter. I know it will then be "we cannot relax restrictions at a time when the NHS is under most pressure". Glad I don't live in Wales and I certainly won't be holidaying there. Trouble is I expect Sturgeon to follow suit which will then put pressure on Boris to do likewise and in my experience he always caves into pressure.

 

[Watershed]

Mark Drakeford now dropping hints that Social Distancing likely to remain in Wales to the end of 2021.



If it continues beyond the summer the chances of it ending at the end of the year are zero. In the middle of winter. I know it will then be "we cannot relax restrictions at a time when the NHS is under most pressure". Glad I don't live in Wales and I certainly won't be holidaying there. Trouble is I expect Sturgeon to follow suit which will then put pressure on Boris to do likewise and in my experience he always caves into pressure.

At that point you have to start asking what the long term plan is. Are the proponents of social distancing seriously suggesting it should contine for another year? Another 5 years? Forever?

I'm glad at least that he is being upfront about the fact he doesn't intend to drop social distancing this year (it's always easier to push these things through as "short extensions"). But he seems to be totally detached from everyday reality if he thinks that there is no appetite for it to be scrapped. Perhaps he should speak to pub landlords and see what they think.

 

[Ediswan]

Mark Drakeford now dropping hints that Social Distancing likely to remain in Wales to the end of 2021.

The sentence I picked up is:

But, Mr Drakeford says he is "not certain there is a huge thirst" for people to give up safeguards, including the 2m social distancing rule.

Trying to distance himself from any decision by suggesting it is what the population of Wales want.

 

[Ascotroyal]

The sentence I picked up is:

Trying to distance himself from any decision by suggesting it is what the population of Wales want.

He cant go out much if the moron thinks that the population of Wales wants social distancing to continue. I was in Wales for a week back in May and saw very little social distancing.

Very few people round here follow it either. Still got the odd plank or 2 who still leap in the road when you pass them though.