Covid restrictions to end on 19th July

[kristiang85]

It doesn't help when the BBC reports that 75% of brits will wear marks on public transport and appears to be a mis-leading survey. Like most surveys, I expect the people who completed this survey are most likely people at home with plenty of time on their hands and 'not' busy out in the real world trying to earn a living.

I would bet that at the moment, only 75% of people are wearing masks even with our current restrictions in place now.....!

For me, I shall only put a mask on on the deep level tube lines, really busy areas and at places such as hospitals from next Monday.

I'm trying to find the poll in question, but can't find any links to it. I'd be interested to know how the question was worded.

 

[Ediswan]

I'm trying to find the poll in question, but can't find any links to it. I'd be interested to know how the question was worded.

Ipsos MORI do publish their results, with the question(s). I suspect this one will appear soon: https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/news-and-polls/news

 

[big_rig]

I'm not interested in any polls tbh - I will observe what actually happens on Monday.

I agree, these polls are mad, but they get column inches. Putting transport to one side, what do the 55% of people who maintain they will wear face coverings in pubs or restaurants think they're getting themselves in for? Half the population can't believe they're both sufficiently so dangerous they ought to wear one when getting up to place an order or when walking in the door, but also so not-dangerous that they can happily sit there eating and drinking for hours! Or the quarter of people who will wear them in other's homes? Very strange.

 

[Darandio]

I'm not interested in any polls tbh - I will observe what actually happens on Monday.

I'm the same. Regardless of what anyone says on here you can only report what you see, there aren't even 74% of people wearning masks on any form of public transport I use right now, never mind once they have the choice not to.

 

[duncanp]

That's one of the most ludicrous analogies I've ever heard. I am, however, not in the least bit surprised.

Couldn't agree more, there is a heck of a difference between having to wear trousers and underpants, and a silly little face nappy.

Mind you, perhaps Nicola Sturgeon will mandate men in Scotland having to wear something under the kilt, just in the name of public decency.

 

[SamYeager]

I'm trying to find the poll in question, but can't find any links to it. I'd be interested to know how the question was worded.

Ipsos MORI do publish their results, with the question(s). I suspect this one will appear soon: https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/news-and-polls/news

I believe the poll is this one in which case the question was "Assuming you had received a vaccine for COVID-19, how likely are you to continue doing each of the following?".

 

[Ediswan]

I believe the poll is this one in which case the question was "Assuming you had received a vaccine for COVID-19, how likely are you to continue doing each of the following?".

I doubt it is that one. The original quote mentioned separate figures for planes, theatres and cinemas. None of those words appear in the linked results.

[Edit] The requested poll has appeared: https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/3-4-britons-believe-wearing-face-masks-public-very-important

 

[island]

Sample size 1,025.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

It's been confirmed that, unlike the London Mayor with TfL, the Metro Mayors have no powers to enforce mask-wearing on public transport in their areas.
It's up to individual transport operators to decide their policy.

Most social distancing restrictions in Wales will be lifted on August 7, but masks will stay in shops and on public transport.

 

[NorthOxonian]

Sample size 1,025.

It's not the size of the sample that's the issue - if you had 1,025 people who were genuinely representative of Britain then the poll figure would almost certainly be within 4% of the true figure.

It's the quality of the sample. The sorts of people who do these surveys aren't representative of the public, at least when it comes to how they respond to the virus. With political polls, responses can be weighted to reduce this problem, but when it comes to the restrictions things like income or education level are much worse predictors than personality traits like extraversion or neuroticism.

 

[johntea]

It's been confirmed that, unlike the London Mayor with TfL, the Metro Mayors have no powers to enforce mask-wearing on public transport in their areas.
It's up to individual transport operators to decide their policy.

Most social distancing restrictions in Wales will be lifted on August 7, but masks will stay in shops and on public transport.

Apparently they do have power to keep it going on Metrolink though! What a jumbled mess things are going to be from next week...

 

[initiation]

Sample size 1,025.

I will repeat a point again: The sample size on its own is not the main reason to doubt this survey.
Most political voting polls use a similar sample size and pollsters can produce reasonably accurate forecasts of voting intention. That is just maths and the same applies here.

However there are very good reasons to rubbish it. For example the question of will you be "Wearing a mask in public" is very open. Do you mean in shopping centers? Packed trains? A city street at 7am.


--

However it appears this is the actual survey quoted by the BBC

https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/3-4-britons-believe-wearing-face-masks-public-very-important

25% will apparently wear a mask when in the home of friends or family...
I note though they survey British rather than English people so the results are not directly translatable to just England.

There is this absurd statement as well:

Kelly Beaver, Managing Director of Public Affairs at Ipsos MORI, said:

While most Britons appear likely to continue wearing face masks beyond 19th July, it is clear not all situations will inspire a majority to keep their mouths and noses covered. With 7 in 10 unlikely to wear face masks inside the homes of friends and family,

Was she really expecting people to mask up inside homes!?


When push comes to shove next week we will see this fall away.

 

[Ediswan]

I have been avoiding posting any opinions on Covid. But I can't let this statement from a representative of Ipsos MORI pass without comment. The organisation is expressing an opinion on the effectiveness of masks and ventilation. A polling organisation should be remain neutral.

Kelly Beaver, Managing Director of Public Affairs at Ipsos MORI, said:

While most Britons appear likely to continue wearing face masks beyond 19th July, it is clear not all situations will inspire a majority to keep their mouths and noses covered. With 7 in 10 unlikely to wear face masks inside the homes of friends and family, people will need to ensure they open windows and ensure air circulation while hosting others to limit the spread of the virus as we continue into the next stages of our fight against COVID-19.

 

[MikeWM]

I will repeat a point again: The sample size on its own is not the main reason to doubt this survey.
Most political voting polls use a similar sample size and pollsters can produce reasonably accurate forecasts of voting intention. That is just maths and the same applies here.

Indeed, all of that is true. However, to get accurate voting intention they do have to apply all sorts of 'fiddle factors', eg. for 'shy Tories'. They get these by learning what biases were present in their past polls, compared to reality. For Covid issues, they have no way of doing that of course.

When push comes to shove next week we will see this fall away.

Hopefully, but after more than a year of what can only be described as brainwashing and relentless propaganda, I'm not so sure.

 

[52290]

A week ago or so I was rung up by someone purporting to be from Ipsos Mori wanting to do a survey. They didn't say what it was about so I declined. I couldn't be sure that it wasn't a scam, I get plenty of those.

 

[Jamesrob637]

A week ago or so I was rung up by someone purporting to be from Ipsos Mori wanting to do a survey. They didn't say what it was about so I declined. I couldn't be sure that it wasn't a scam, I get plenty of those.

I only ever do surveys online nowadays and even then rarely.

 

[philosopher]

I agree, these polls are mad, but they get column inches. Putting transport to one side, what do the 55% of people who maintain they will wear face coverings in pubs or restaurants think they're getting themselves in for? Half the population can't believe they're both sufficiently so dangerous they ought to wear one when getting up to place an order or when walking in the door, but also so not-dangerous that they can happily sit there eating and drinking for hours! Or the quarter of people who will wear them in other's homes? Very strange.

The poll says 39% will wear a face mask in the gym. Face masks in gyms have never been compulsory, at least in England. I go to the gym quite regularly and mask wearing, at least at my gym is no where near 39% despite it being recommended by the gym. At best mask wearing is 5% to 10%. On most occasions I visit no one will be wearing a mask.

 

[VauxhallandI]

The poll says 39% will wear a face mask in the gym. Face masks in gyms have never been compulsory, at least in England. I go to the gym quite regularly and mask wearing, at least at my gym is no where near 39% despite it being recommended by the gym. At best mask wearing is 5% to 10%. On most occasions I visit no one will be wearing a mask.

I went to the gym several times a week in the autumn and I didn’t see a single person wearing one once in the gym room

 

[Domh245]

The poll says 39% will wear a face mask in the gym. Face masks in gyms have never been compulsory, at least in England. I go to the gym quite regularly and mask wearing, at least at my gym is no where near 39% despite it being recommended by the gym. At best mask wearing is 5% to 10%. On most occasions I visit no one will be wearing a mask.

Based on this report, which cites around 6 million brits having a gym membership, we would expect ~100 of the ~1000 surveyed to have a gym membership, and thus be of any relevance in answering the question. Now, either IPSOS have filtered the responses down accordingly with other questions so that only people who hold a gym membership/have been to a gym since last March are included, or perhaps more likely they've taken an answer from everyone, and around 90% of the responses are "well, hypothetically if I were at a gym, I would..." - a situation where they are unlikely to think through the practicalities of the situation

 

[35B]

Indeed, all of that is true. However, to get accurate voting intention they do have to apply all sorts of 'fiddle factors', eg. for 'shy Tories'. They get these by learning what biases were present in their past polls, compared to reality. For Covid issues, they have no way of doing that of course.

Really? We’ve had Covid a year, and there are other experiences of participant bias to bring to bear when weighting results.

 

[trebor79]

I have a nasty feeling there's going to be a last minute U-turn and the mask mandate left in place. Tory backbenchers have gone quite over the past few days and there's clearly a campaign underway by mask enthusiasts to force a rethink.

I really hope that Boris and Javid hold firm. Once people realise the sky hadn't fallen in once their comfort blankets are removed the fuss will all die down. But if they manage to force a U-turn I fear we'll be stuck with the stupid things until early summer 2022 at best.

 

[initiation]

Really? We’ve had Covid a year, and there are other experiences of participant bias to bring to bear when weighting results.

Perhaps not no way, but certain less reference points. In politics you've had many years of data, covid only 1 year.

The way you ask the question is important. If you asked would you support continued social distancing in pubs but it meant 10,000 pubs closed and 100,000 lost their jobs, the answers would be different if you omitted the last bit.

I have a nasty feeling there's going to be a last minute U-turn and the mask mandate left in place. Tory backbenchers have gone quite over the past few days and there's clearly a campaign underway by mask enthusiasts to force a rethink.

I really hope that Boris and Javid hold firm. Once people realise the sky hadn't fallen in once their comfort blankets are removed the fuss will all die down. But if they manage to force a U-turn I fear we'll be stuck with the stupid things until early summer 2022 at best.

I really hope not and agree we will have them until 2022 if there is. Not sure how it works logistically in terms of legislation - I assume this would need to be repealed tomorrow/Friday rather than at the weekend? That only gives a short window for pressure to build.

 

[Bishopstone]

I have a nasty feeling there's going to be a last minute U-turn and the mask mandate left in place. Tory backbenchers have gone quite over the past few days and there's clearly a campaign underway by mask enthusiasts to force a rethink.

I don’t think there will be a legislative U-turn (for now), but I suspect there are some lively discussions underway between Government, the public transport operators and the big retailers over reinforcing the ‘strongly recommended’ guidance.

As few trust the Government, no doubt assurances are being sought that whatever line is agreed, it won’t be undermined by ministers on Monday morning.

 

[trebor79]

I don’t think there will be a legislative U-turn (for now), but I suspect there are some lively discussions underway between Government, the public transport operators and the big retailers over reinforcing the ‘strongly recommended’ guidance.

As few trust the Government, no doubt assurances are being sought that whatever line is agreed, it won’t be undermined by ministers on Monday morning.

The thing I don't get is the metro mayor's and unions claiming that removing the mandate puts staff at risk when they try to enforce masks use. Apparently 15% of staff assaults have been over mask rules.
There's nothing to enforce. Assuming staff don't go round trying to bully people into complying, there'll be no problem and the mask related altercations will cease. I'm not condoning assaulting staff, but surely it's nonsensical to suggest it will get worse if the reason for the argument has gone?
Just feels like an agenda being pushed, which of course it is.

 

[big_rig]

The poll says 39% will wear a face mask in the gym. Face masks in gyms have never been compulsory, at least in England. I go to the gym quite regularly and mask wearing, at least at my gym is no where near 39% despite it being recommended by the gym. At best mask wearing is 5% to 10%. On most occasions I visit no one will be wearing a mask.

I had missed that - good spotting. At my gym where I’ve been every week it’s been open during this time I would put mask wearers at <1%. By that measure we could remove 37% or so from ‘voluntary maskers’ from each measure as that must be the proportion of people strange enough to say they’ll wear a mask somewhere they either never visit in their lives anyway, or do not currently mask in.

 

[trebor79]

I really hope not and agree we will have them until 2022 if there is. Not sure how it works logistically in terms of legislation - I assume this would need to be repealed tomorrow/Friday rather than at the weekend? That only gives a short window for pressure to build.

This it can be done over the weekend. A lot of covid legislation has been issued hours before it came into effect. They don't need parliamentary consent under emergency powers.

 

[35B]

Perhaps not no way, but certain less reference points. In politics you've had many years of data, covid only 1 year.

The way you ask the question is important. If you asked would you support continued social distancing in pubs but it meant 10,000 pubs closed and 100,000 lost their jobs, the answers would be different if you omitted the last bit.

I agree - but that’s about methodology. And pollsters routinely have to deal with new issues from time to time; Covid is hardly the first time they’ve had to deal with new questions.

 

[farleigh]

Haven't worn a mask since 21st June - just said I am exempt. Glad I won't have to mention that from Monday

 

[island]

Perhaps not no way, but certain less reference points. In politics you've had many years of data, covid only 1 year.

The way you ask the question is important. If you asked would you support continued social distancing in pubs but it meant 10,000 pubs closed and 100,000 lost their jobs, the answers would be different if you omitted the last bit.

I really hope not and agree we will have them until 2022 if there is. Not sure how it works logistically in terms of legislation - I assume this would need to be repealed tomorrow/Friday rather than at the weekend? That only gives a short window for pressure to build.

Logistically, if nothing is done the face covering rules expire at midnight on Sunday night as respects public transport and Friday night as respects everywhere else.

 

[dave87016]

I am aware that wearing a mask before the vaccination programme actually carried weight but I wonder if given the number of people that have had one or both Covid jabs which offer a very high percentage of protection if mask wearing now carries any weight or if they are of any use .

Personally I don’t think they are given how much protection the vaccine gives I wonder if the goverment gave any thought to that