Heading into autumn - what next?

[MikeWM]

Well, the autumn is off to an exciting start. On day 1 we get:

- vaccine passports for Scotland
- massive hype over a new variant 'that may evade the vaccines'
- media panic over number of deaths, willfully ignoring the bank holiday effect

At this rate, I suspect the next few months are going to be *so* much fun

 

[brad465]

Well, the autumn is off to an exciting start. On day 1 we get:

- vaccine passports for Scotland
- massive hype over a new variant 'that may evade the vaccines'
- media panic over number of deaths, willfully ignoring the bank holiday effect

At this rate, I suspect the next few months are going to be *so* much fun

There is one bit of hope, a report here on the BBC (visible on the landing page) that "long covid" rates in children are much lower than originally hyped feared:

Long Covid in children 'nowhere near scale feared'

Public should be reassured over rates of persistent symptoms, leading child health experts say.

www.bbc.co.uk

The risk of "long Covid" in children is much lower than many had feared, leading child health experts have said.

After the world's biggest study into the issue, the researchers, led by University College London, said they were "reassured".

They surveyed 11- to 17-year-olds testing positive for coronavirus in England between September and March.

The research suggests somewhere between 2% and 14% still had symptoms caused by Covid 15 weeks later.

The team said it was important those with persistent symptoms, which included headaches, tiredness and breathing difficulties, received support.

But there was little evidence huge numbers had sought NHS help for symptoms that had left them bedridden or unable to attend school.

In the comments of this article there's a good scoring among comments highlighting the role the media have played in amplifying minority opinions and how the country seems to be being run by minority views as well, which makes for good reading.

 

[bramling]

Well, the autumn is off to an exciting start. On day 1 we get:

- vaccine passports for Scotland
- massive hype over a new variant 'that may evade the vaccines'
- media panic over number of deaths, willfully ignoring the bank holiday effect

At this rate, I suspect the next few months are going to be *so* much fun

Well indeed, here we go. The only consolation is the rolling news media is being heavily taken up by Afghanistan at the moment, which is suppressing some of this stuff.

One other good thing is we have Javid in post instead of Hancock. He seems rather more on top of things.

 

[yorkie]

Long Covid in children 'nowhere near scale feared'

Public should be reassured over rates of persistent symptoms, leading child health experts say.

www.bbc.co.uk

The risk of "long Covid" in children is much lower than many had feared, leading child health experts have said...

The article goes into detail about the findings, which are reassuring, and at the end the article makes the following pertinent points:

And the researchers said it was clear the pandemic had had a damaging effect on young people because of:

• the closure of schools
• not seeing their friends
• concern about the risk from the virus

This showed how important it was to get "back to normal" and have schools open, Dr Whittaker added.

I suspect the likes of Greenhalgh, Ding, and their ilk will be most displeased to read these findings as it won't suit their fear-mongering narrative.

I think we may still see 12-15 year olds vaccinated but it won't go lower than that.

I think we are going to be accepting that there will be 5 endemic human Coronaviruses, rather than the 4 we had previously, and that in the longer term, immunity will be through natural infection at a young age with all 5 of these viruses, rather than through vaccination.

However it is important to bear in mind that the pre-existing 4 human Coronaviruses are caught at a very young age (generally before age 5) and it would be unheard of for anyone much older than this to exposed to any of these for the first time, so vaccinations are very important in the short to medium term.

The virus is going to continue to spread, it will be endemic, everyone will be exposed to it multiple times in their lives. It is in my opinion important to get vaccinated but once that is done, life must get back to normal. No 'new' normal, no partial normal. Proper normal!

Edit: I see @brad456 posted the above link as I was typing this post up!

 

[MikeWM]

There is one bit of hope, a report here on the BBC (visible on the landing page) that "long covid" rates in children are much lower than originally hyped feared:

Long Covid in children 'nowhere near scale feared'

Public should be reassured over rates of persistent symptoms, leading child health experts say.

www.bbc.co.uk

Ah, Nick Triggle. He's one of the few BBC reporters I still have some time for, he's far more balanced than most.

As a slight aside, let's see how the Guardian manages to report on that...

https://www.theguardian.com/society...ovid-still-suffering-three-months-later-study

One in seven children with Covid still suffering three months later – study

(the rest of the article is rather more positive, but clearly they couldn't resist the 'scary' headline).

It really is time to send the Guardian to the dustbin where it now belongs.

 

[yorkie]

I used to wonder why The Guardian used to have such a bad reputation, but since Covid, now I realise what a terrible publication it is.

Their headline is completely at odds with the outcome of the study.

I've also realised in the last 18 months or so just how utterly bonkers some of their writers, such as the infamous Owen Jones are. As for people like Deepti Gurdasani, who is quoted in this article, she is outright dangerous and any media outlet giving any credence to her views ought to be classed as a 'fake news' publication.

I don't think many people take The Guardian seriously, thankfully, so their capability for spreading misleading information is probably quite limited.

The BBC have really gone downhill in the past 18 months but this article has gone some way towards restring their reputation, though a lot more work needs to be done in this area.

 

[Tezza1978]

I used to wonder why The Guardian used to have such a bad reputation, but since Covid, now I realise what a terrible publication it is.

Their headline is completely at odds with the outcome of the study.

I've also realised in the last 18 months or so just how utterly bonkers some of their writers, such as the infamous Owen Jones are. As for people like Deepti Gurdasani, who is quoted in this article, she is outright dangerous and any media outlet giving any credence to her views ought to be classed as a 'fake news' publication.

I don't think many people take The Guardian seriously, thankfully, so their capability for spreading misleading information is probably quite limited.

The BBC have really gone downhill in the past 18 months but this article has gone some way towards restring their reputation, though a lot more work needs to be done in this area.

Gurdasani, Pagel, Scally are downright dangerous I agree - and have been proved massively wrong more times that I have had hot dinners. Eric Feigl-Ding would be in that category too if he wasn't so ludicrously over the top and laughable. This bunch have lost the argument and all they can do now is get more and more irate and outrageous, spread more variant scare stories etc etc

 

[43066]

I don't think many people take The Guardian seriously, thankfully, so their capability for spreading misleading information is probably quite limited.

Not that many read it.

I used to wonder why The Guardian used to have such a bad reputation, but since Covid, now I realise what a terrible publication it is.

Their headline is completely at odds with the outcome of the study.

I've also realised in the last 18 months or so just how utterly bonkers some of their writers, such as the infamous Owen Jones are. As for people like Deepti Gurdasani, who is quoted in this article, she is outright dangerous and any media outlet giving any credence to her views ought to be classed as a 'fake news' publication.

I don't think many people take The Guardian seriously, thankfully, so their capability for spreading misleading information is probably quite limited.

The BBC have really gone downhill in the past 18 months but this article has gone some way towards restring their reputation, though a lot more work needs to be done in this area.

The guardian has some high quality journalism, but is very much “Islington lefty-latte”, in the way that you only can be when you’re rich enough not to need to care about the real world and pass the time by getting offended by the latest woke outrage.

It’s absolute ground zero for people who live in big houses in the Home Counties, aren’t too affected by Covid restrictions themselves because they have young families and no longer have to commute, but want to see them imposed on others “for the greater good”.

 

[ic31420]

Those who argue for more lockdowns should be forced to state that they believe that the vaccine programme has failed.

And what they propose next...

We're just going to have to live with it (covid). It'd probably be cheaper to build in more hospital capacity than endless lockdowns and furlough. If they must stick a penny in the pound on income tax for the NHS while everyone loves it and wants to save at and any NHS naysaying is roundly slapped down.

I work (like many others here I suspect) where public contact under 2m is unavoidable, we've been in work as normal throughout with a team 50 of all ages ethnicities and backgrounds. We haven't been particularly careful working together in a small office, sharing vehicles and other facilities. Just wiping down and sanitising as we go with masks for show. Yet we are not knee deep in deaths and bodies. We had one case that was "a bit worse than flu" and that was from a lad with lung disease. A few people have been tucked up in bed for a few days.

It's interesting that some of us have not missed a day while others have been seemingly perma isolating, dodging, or testing positive. I think our record is 7 periods off for close contact. (He makes no bones he's refurbished his kitchen and patio) It was amazing how many people suddenly remembered they had asthma or other nonsense making them vulnerable to having 6 months off on full pay. Sadly they wasn't in work at deadline times for Christmas and school holiday leave application deadlines and missed out... Oops.

Anyways.. I really must get around to getting my jabs. (I'd like to say I have some ideological object, but other than not being bothered and preferring the AZ I do t)

 

[43066]

I work (like many others here I suspect) where public contact under 2m is unavoidable, we've been in work as normal throughout with a team 50 of all ages ethnicities and backgrounds. We haven't been particularly careful working together in a small office, sharing vehicles and other facilities. Just wiping down and sanitising as we go with masks for show. Yet we are not knee deep in deaths and bodies. We had one case that was "a bit worse than flu" and that was from a lad with lung disease. A few people have been tucked up in bed for a few days.

Sounds almost exactly like my experience of being a train driver at my TOC over the past 18 months!

Anyways.. I really must get around to getting my jabs. (I'd like to say I have some ideological object, but other than not being bothered and preferring the AZ I do t)

I know quite a few people who jumped at the vaccine (fair enough), but equally a good few who haven’t rushed to have it. Generally that’s because they don’t consider they urgently need it, due to the low risk this virus poses to most people.

They are not “anti-vaxxers” by any stretch, but are simply being fed up of being dictated to and told what to do and what to think.

 

[DelayRepay]

Boosters just got confirmed. For about 1% of the population. I will be very relieved when I get mine.

Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) advice on third primary dose vaccination

www.gov.uk

That seems rather sensible, vaccinate the vulnerable, send the rest of the doses to those in developing countries.

I think this is just the first phase of the booster programme. Buried away in the document, it says:

It is expected that severely immunosuppressed inviduals will become eligible for a booster dose as part of a routine booster programme from around 6 months after their third primary dose, pending further advice.

Which suggests a wider booster programme is still on the cards. But it makes sense to prioritise the most vulnerable.

 

[Butts]

I predict returning from green list countries won't require testing (for vaccinated individuals) within 2 months maximum.

(And if I am wrong the people making the decisions are completely stupid)

Logically that should apply to returning from Amber Countries as well, as for the fully vaccinated there is no discernible difference between the two under the existing regimen.

 

[Yew]

Which suggests a wider booster programme is still on the cards. But it makes sense to prioritise the most vulnerable.

I could get behind a "people who usually get a flu jab" type of arrangement; but I'm not certain that, with only one virus in circulation, it'd really be necessary in most cases?

 

[Ianno87]

(the rest of the article is rather more positive, but clearly they couldn't resist the 'scary' headline).

Ugh, can't stand headlines like that; most people will read the clickbait as "1 in 7 children" rather than "1 in 7 children with Covid" (which is a vanishingly smaller number)

 

[yorkie]

Logically that should apply to returning from Amber Countries as well, as for the fully vaccinated there is no discernible difference between the two under the existing regimen.

It may be argued that 'logically' there should be more discernible difference between the two though!

Ugh, can't stand headlines like that; most people will read the clickbait as "1 in 7 children" rather than "1 in 7 children with Covid" (which is a vanishingly smaller number)

Also many children who are infected with the virus don't have any symptoms or are so mild it could be any of the similar viruses that commonly circulate (which most adults already have excellent immunity against) and tests don't always pick it up; a parent was telling me the other day that his daughter had several tests in the space of a few days but only one of them came back positive and her symptoms were very mild.

I'm not sure how long the testing charade will go on for; I suspect it depends on how long the fearmongers are able to keep up their anti-normality rhetoric and also the links between certain individuals in power and the companies that produce these tests.

 

[Green tractor]

It may be argued that 'logically' there should be more discernible difference between the two though!

Also many children who are infected with the virus don't have any symptoms or are so mild it could be any of the similar viruses that commonly circulate (which most adults already have excellent immunity against) and tests don't always pick it up; a parent was telling me the other day that his daughter had several tests in the space of a few days but only one of them came back positive and her symptoms were very mild.

I'm not sure how long the testing charade will go on for; I suspect it depends on how long the fearmongers are able to keep up their anti-normality rhetoric and also the links between certain individuals in power and the companies that produce these tests.

Could you explain exactly what you mean by 'testing charade' please?

 

[bramling]

Could you explain exactly what you mean by 'testing charade' please?

Presumably the fact we continue to test in bulk, which is increasingly disappropriate for a virus which is now endemic.

 

[Green tractor]

Presumably the fact we continue to test in bulk, which is increasingly disappropriate for a virus which is now endemic.

Presumably he doesnt want to answer himself?

 

[Bantamzen]

Could you explain exactly what you mean by 'testing charade' please?

Tests conducted = 267,252,232
Infections found = 6,862,904
Percentage of positive tests = 2.57%

So over 97% of all tests conducted were a waste of time, and far more importantly a waste of NHS resources. Are you happy with this clearly ineffective use of valuable NHS resources, I know I am not.

Presumably he doesnt want to answer himself?

Even people who run the forums don't watch your posts 24/7...

 

[Butts]

Could you explain exactly what you mean by 'testing charade' please?

Subjecting returning vaccinated Citizens to a regimen of 2 tests that no other Country in Europe seems to deem necessary when arriving home from Green or Amber Countries ?

 

[Philip]

On a different angle, the roads are far too congested during the day now, at least in this area. Going forwards people need to be encouraged to go back to the office or if continuing to work from home then they need to do just that rather than making regular non-work related car journeys during the day and adding to the congestion.

 

[ChrisC]

Tests conducted = 267,252,232
Infections found = 6,862,904
Percentage of positive tests = 2.57%

So over 97% of all tests conducted were a waste of time, and far more importantly a waste of NHS resources. Are you happy with this clearly ineffective use of valuable NHS resources, I know I am not.

Last week I was out and about around some of the areas of the North of England which at various times during the pandemic have had high infection rates. Even though infection levels are now much lower there were still testing sites everywhere. All I saw were lots of staff standing around in car parks doing nothing. Very few people seemed to be using them. I just kept thinking what a waste of money and resources.

 

[Bantamzen]

On a different angle, the roads are far too congested during the day now, at least in this area. Going forwards people need to be encouraged to go back to the office or if continuing to work from home then they need to do just that rather than making regular non-work related car journeys during the day and adding to the congestion.

This is going off topic but I'm impressed that you can determine whether or not someone's car journey is essential just by looking at them....

Last week I was out and about around some of the areas of the North of England which at various times during the pandemic have had high infection rates. Even though infection levels are now much lower there were still testing sites everywhere. All I saw were lots of staff standing around in car parks doing nothing. Very few people seemed to be using them. I just kept thinking what a waste of money and resources.

Exactly. At a time when the NHS is literally begging for at least another £10 billion to stave off a financial crisis, we are still pouring billions into unused tests and testing centres. At any other time this would be a national scandal and all over the headlines. But because covid we just ignore the issue entirely. It's pure insanity.

 

[DustyBin]

I was offered a test by a young lady stood outside a pop up testing centre in Scotland yesterday. It had the feel of being offered a free shot in a bar or nightclub if I’m honest! Needless to say I politely declined but it left me thinking “why on earth would you?”.

It needs to end; it’s pointless, costly, and generates a massive amount of plastic waste. If you feel ill stay at home, it really is that simple.

 

[Eyersey468]

I can understand somebody that has symptoms and therefore might have Covid getting tested, but testing people who have no symptoms seems to me a complete waste of time and resources

 

[Cdd89]

I can understand somebody that has symptoms and therefore might have Covid getting tested

I have some sympathy with this, but PCR tests are very expensive, as are running testing sites and posting stuff out; and since we aren’t telling vaccinated contacts to isolate, we’re clearly not bothered about stopping “100%” of the chains of transmission anymore.

I’d propose:

• Free rapid testing for asymptomatic and symptomatic (discouraged when case rates are low), for pharmacy collection or delivery paid for by the recipient. These tests are reliable for determining if you are currently highly infectious, which is all we care about; symptomatic could be encouraged to take a further test a couple of days later
• Chargeable PCR testing (for whatever purpose)

 

[Crossover]

Could you explain exactly what you mean by 'testing charade' please?

"The more you test, the more you'll find"

 

[BackOnTheTrain]

It seems that we’re not vaccinating healthy 12-15 year olds, but there are a few hundred thousand extra being offered it with certain conditions.

Source: Not enough benefit to offer all teens Covid jabs https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-58438669

The UK's vaccine advisory body has refused to give the green light to vaccinating healthy children aged 12-15 years on health grounds alone.
The JCVI said children were at such a low risk from the virus that jabs would offer only a marginal benefit.
The UK's four chief medical officers have now been asked to have the final say, and consider the wider impact on schools and society.
Health Secretary Sajid Javid says a decision will be made shortly.

 

[yorksrob]

Well, as long as it doesn't turn into "ooh, we've got to shut everyone else down to keep the schools open", I don't mind.

When it's claimed that schools don't increase transmission, I'm concerned that is a yarn to justify locking everything else down. I'm afraid I just don't trust them after last year.

 

[Eyersey468]

Well, as long as it doesn't turn into "ooh, we've got to shut everyone else down to keep the schools open", I don't mind.

When it's claimed that schools don't increase transmission, I'm concerned that is a yarn to justify locking everything else down. I'm afraid I just don't trust them after last year.

That's my concern too, I don't trust them either and if they shut everything else down it will kill a lot of sectors stone dead, things like hospitality etc are hanging by a thread as it is.