Heading into autumn - what next?

[greyman42]

No you're quite right. However I do feel the cloud is gradually thinning away, though there still seems to be a "do as your told over Christmas or it'll be lockdown in the New Year" undercurrent in certain areas.

I believe these are just threats and that there is no desire or money to carry them out.

 

[DustyBin]

There is no suggestion whatsoever that the UK has any plans to do this.


What has this got to do with the UK?

The issue is that countries are seemingly happy to follow each other. The UK, and England in particular, is an outlier and I've previously acknowledged that you were correct in your assertion that we'd not introduce domestic vaccine passports. However, with mandates now in place in both Scotland and Wales surely you'll agree that the wolf is rather too close to the door for comfort? The danger is that it doesn't stop at DVPs, regardless of what the current plans are.

 

[bramling]

Also worth researching, if anybody is interested in psychology, is the phenomenon called Mass Formation. There's plenty to find on the internet through Professor Mattias Desmet of Psychology University of Ghent, Belgium. It's quite startling how easy manipulation and control of the human mind can occur to achieve what is desired by authorities. It is plain to see why history repeats itself with atrocities.

We saw elements of it especially last year. Very easily manipulated simply off the back of a “save the NHS” message.

I’m not exaggerating to say I find it all very unsettling indeed.

 

[Bikeman78]

Despite what has been quoted up stream regarding Britain bucking the trend I suspect the main driver was the school holidays. Now the kids are back I would expect the number of cases to rise fast. If this is the case the government will have to make some very tough decisions by early December.

When is/was half term in various European countries? Cases can't keep rising forever. The virus will run out of people to infect.

 

[DustyBin]

I believe these are just threats and that there is no desire or money to carry them out.

On that we can agree!

 

[greyman42]

Try living in Scotland, it’s far from normal with the vaccine passports!

Regarding Scotland, that is true. But that is the SNP for you. You can only put that right at the ballot box.

 

[duncanp]

Er, not according to the article below from The Telegraph.

Cases have been declining in school age children since 19th October, and have fallen by 36%, 64% and 48% since the for the 5 - 9, 10 - 14 and 15 - 19 age groups. The decline has continued since school pupils returned from the half term holiday, and moreover the vaccination program for those aged over 12 should help to suppress rates even further.

‘Flattening’ Covid numbers mean a ‘sunnier outlook’ for Christmas

UK heading in right direction ahead of festive season, says Dr Mike Tildesley of the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling

www.telegraph.co.uk

'Flattening' Covid numbers give us a 'sunnier outlook' for Christmas, says modelling expert​

Coronavirus cases are on their longest unbroken decline since May, according to government data, despite a daily rise in cases on Thursday

The "flattening" of Covid case numbers is giving us a "sunnier outlook" for Christmas, a leading modelling expert has said.

Coronavirus cases are on their longest unbroken decline since May, according to government data, despite a daily rise in cases on Thursday.

And Dr Mike Tildesley, a member of the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (Spi-M) Government advisory group, said the UK was heading in the right direction ahead of the festive season.

Last year, millions were forced to shelve their Christmas plans as Britain entered a third national lockdown, but having the whole family around the table for the turkey looks likely this year.

Dr Tildesley said: "I think I'm certainly more optimistic than I was this time last year.

"Maybe you probably don't feel I'm going far enough by saying that, but I'm certainly more optimistic than I was this time last year in that the vaccines are clearly here to help us.


We always need to be careful because we know that Covid thrown so many curveballs over the last 18 months now that if we start to see another variant of concern emerge where the vaccines are less effective or it's much more transmissible again, then things could go in the other direction.

"But in terms of what we're seeing now, we compare this time November this year with last year, the trajectory is so much better, which then does put us in hopefully a much better position as we move towards the present.

While the University of Warwick professor said we could not rule out some tightening of measures, "he said we were a long way away from talking about the idea of a lockdown".

"Hopefully more and more people keep going out to get the booster vaccines if we get high uptake in younger people with vaccines, we should hopefully have a much sunnier outlook as we move towards Christmas," he added.

New data out on Friday from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed around one in 60 people in private households in England had Covid-19 in the week to Nov 6, down from one in 50 the previous week, according to the latest estimates from the Office for National Statistics.

One in 60 is the equivalent of about 925,400 people and is slightly below the proportion of people who were estimated to have coronavirus at the peak of the second wave in early January.

In Wales, around one in 45 people is estimated to have had Covid-19 in the same week, down from one in 40 the previous week, which had been the highest since estimates began in July 2020.

In Northern Ireland, the latest estimate is around one in 75 people, down from one in 65 the previous week and below the record high of one in 40 in mid-August.

For Scotland, the latest estimate is one in 85, down from one in 80 the previous week and below September's peak of one in 45.

When modelling the level of Covid-19 infections among different age ranges in England, the ONS said rates have decreased in the latest week for all age groups except for those from school year 12 to age 24 and for people aged 35 to 49, where the trend is uncertain.

Rates remained highest for those in school years 7 to 11, at 4.8 per cent.

 

[bramling]

I believe these are just threats and that there is no desire or money to carry them out.

Yes I think this is probably right, but even so it’s damaging.

It still feels like a “do as you’re told or you get restrictions” cloud, and perhaps more of an issue is there’s sufficient people who will go along with it. I think back to the self-appointed types who could at one point last summer could be seen pacing up and down trains on my local line challenging people for not wearing masks.

Likewise the matrix signs on roads round here last autumn which were essentially “do as you’re told or go into a higher tier”.

Some of the rubbish which has occurred over the last 18 months should not be readily forgotten, there are lessons to learn from it.

 

[Peterthegreat]

The kids were off for a week. Before that they were at school for 7-8 weeks and cases didn't rise 'fast' then. Why the doom and gloom predictions now?

1) In the 4 weeks leading up to the holidays the 7 day average went up by a third. It then fell back to just above the level of late September.
2) Whilst it is true most school holidays were of one week duration the holidays were not the same throughout the UK.
3) The last couple of days have shown large increases compared to the previous week.

 

[greyman42]

Scotland is certainly not 'normal'. Nor is Wales, or Ireland. Nor is France, or Germany, or Austria, or Italy. Nor is Canada or the USA. Nor is Australia or New Zealand. Etc.

As someone living in England that has no effect on me living a normal life.

Scotland now has a papers please society and that has yet to reach England but that doesn’t mean it won’t

 

[Butts]

Regarding Scotland, that is true. But that is the SNP for you. You can only put that right at the ballot box.

Missed that chance in May.

It would be interesting if anyone on the Forum who supports the SNP would be willing to back their current policy with regard to this.

 

[bramling]

The issue is that countries are seemingly happy to follow each other. The UK, and England in particular, is an outlier and I've previously acknowledged that you were correct in your assertion that we'd not introduce domestic vaccine passports. However, with mandates now in place in both Scotland and Wales surely you'll agree that the wolf is rather too close to the door for comfort? The danger is that it doesn't stop at DVPs, regardless of what the current plans are.

To be honest I’m not particularly happy with the situation in Scotland / Wales either. As a UK citizen, I resent the idea that apparently I have to show papers to do something as basic as enter a venue in these parts of my country. Likewise the fact that at times I have been barred from entering these areas.

Going forward there needs to be a hard look at the devolution setup, as London, Scotland and Wales have all pushed the boat too far in my view, especially as some of this has clearly been for ideological rather than pragmatic reasons. I don’t think it will happen though - upsetting the devolution status quo will be firmly in the “too difficult” box. The irony is the devolved areas haven’t exactly had a better outcome either, on the contrary if anything. (I leave Northern Ireland out of this as I recognise for practical reasons the setup there is more complicated due to the need to consider what happens in ROI).

As someone living in England that has no effect on me living a normal life.

Whilst I don’t disagree with the sentiment of this, I take it you don’t live in a “border” area of England?

It’s also worth adding that measures in devolved areas may well affect you (and I) if they are costly to implement or have negative economic impacts, and therefore affect us as UK taxpayers.

 

[greyman42]

It is truly horrifying, and it is akin to what happened to Jews in Nazi controlled territories before they were rounded up and sent to concentration camps. (ie - they were forbidden from using public transport and could only use certain shops at certain times.... etc)

There is no where near a comparison to then and now. Are you suggesting we have the equivalent of Hitler and the Nazis governing the UK?

 

[Darandio]

1) In the 4 weeks leading up to the holidays the 7 day average went up by a third. It then fell back to just above the level of late September.
2) Whilst it is true most school holidays were of one week duration the holidays were not the same throughout the UK.
3) The last couple of days have shown large increases compared to the previous week.

Cases have repeatedly had these constant peaks and troughs since July and despite many gloomy predictions deaths and hospital admissions haven't followed the same trajectories, they've pretty much stayed on a fairly flat path for quite a long period of time. Why? Because the vaccines are doing the heavy lifting as intended.

As with all doom and gloom merchants you are concentrating far too much on cases.

 

[Scotrail314209]

Missed that chance in May.

It would be interesting if anyone on the Forum who supports the SNP would be willing to back their current policy with regard to this.

I used to back the SNP but enough is enough now. They’ve not got my vote anymore.

They completely lost me when Swinney suggested introducing vaccine passports to more venues, even though Scotland seems to be plateauing out?

 

[greyman42]

This means people's lives and businesses will once again be disrupted in the run-up towards Christmas, dispute there being no scientific basis for the measures - surely closing bars and restaurants early and playing outdoor sport without an audience will just drive people to socialise more in their homes, where they completely let their guard down?

This is exactly what happened in the UK last winter.

 

[bramling]

There is no where near a comparison to then and now. Are you suggesting we have the equivalent of Hitler and the Nazis governing the UK?

I don’t think this is something which should be dismissed as “that could never happen again”, or “that could never happen *here*”. Reality is it has happened in the past, in that instance off the back of economic hardship. We’d all like to think the world, and Europe in particular, learned the lessons from it, however it is also a lesson which shouldn’t be forgotten nor dismissed lightly.

Simple truth is if it happened once it could happen again, and perhaps the biggest lesson of all is the way it all started democratically and with the (tacit) blessing of the people.

 

[greyman42]

And some people aren't getting vaccinated due to religious or cultural reasons , so it is discrimination along those lines in some cases.

What religious or cultural reasons are there for not getting vaccinated?

It will be interesting to see how the mandatory vaccines for NHS staff pans out. The government will look rather silly if lots of people stick two fingers up and leave. I'd go and train to be an HGV driver. More money and less hassle.

Sounds like a good move then but your pension benefits may not be as good driving a lorry for a private company.

 

[seagull]

What religious or cultural reasons are there for not getting vaccinated?

While I cannot cite reasons as I don't know them, I have read that the strict Dutch Reformed Church, Christian Scientists, and some Protestant sub-groups mainly in the USA, do oppose vaccinations in general and therefore members of those groups would legally be able to claim exemption. And therefore would potentially suffer discrimination in somewhere such as Upper Austria with its over-reaction to this disease.

 

[greyman42]

While I cannot cite reasons as I don't know them, I have read that the strict Dutch Reformed Church, Christian Scientists, and some Protestant sub-groups mainly in the USA, do oppose vaccinations in general and therefore members of those groups would legally be able to claim exemption. And therefore would potentially suffer discrimination in somewhere such as Upper Austria with its over-reaction to this disease.

I was thinking about the UK.

 

[MikeWM]

I was thinking about the UK.

For one example, the use of cell lines from aborted fetuses in the testing and/or production of the vaccines (to different degrees depending on which vaccine, but they all do so to some degree) is something that troubles a number of people from various religious groups (and indeed, some non-religious people).

 

[greyman42]

For one example, the use of cell lines from aborted fetuses in the testing and/or production of the vaccines (to different degrees depending on which vaccine, but they all do so to some degree) is something that troubles a number of people from various religious groups (and indeed, some non-religious people).

Which religious groups are you referring to?

 

[BackOnTheTrain]

I'm not at all sure that 25% of all yellow card reports over 50 years, being related to just one medicine/vaccine in just one year, is expected, however more widespread that medicine/vaccine has been taken. I'd agree that the number would be siginficant, but 25% of all reports ever?



I'm also not sure I'd describe changes in periods as 'mild', especially if I were a young woman hoping to have children at some point in the future. If I were in that group, at the least I'd want see a good explanation as to why this side-effect is fairly common, and scientific proof that other aspects of fertility weren't going to be affected, before going ahead with being vaccinated. I don't believe that has been provided so far.



But that's just due to politics side-stepping the usual safeguards, and to be perfectly blunt they very much ought not to have been fully approved at this point. The vaccines are still all in phase 3 clinical trials, for example, so 'experimental' is a perfectly fair description.

With regards to the Covid vaccine affecting periods, it may turn out that it’s a common side effect to many or even all vaccines.

Most vaccines are given before girls start their periods, and even those which are given at secondary school can’t really be relied upon to prove or disprove my theory because many females have unpredictable cycles to start with — plus exam stress etc absolutely plays a part too.

Flu jabs are primarily for the very young, before periods start, and older people, where the females will either have stopped having periods or will be peri-menopausal which causes havoc by itself. Again, not a useful vaccine to compare.

There will of course be some women having vaccines whilst in an otherwise longstanding regular menstrual cycle, but the numbers of those compared to the numbers getting the Covid vaccine, will be tiny. It is something that needs to be investigated, but it may just be that we learn something about other vaccines rather than the Covid ones.

 

[35B]

Whilst your observations are valid, its worth remembering that the persecution of people in Nazi Germany (for example) extended beyond those with what we now call "protected characteristics". Being a communist, or any other kind of political opponent is as much a choice as is being unvaccinated.

Nobody is equating what has happened over the course of the pandemic, or what is happening now, with the levels of persecution you describe above. It is however perfectly valid to point out that it all starts somewhere, and even one step down such a road is one too many in my opinion.

Responding to this as representative of the rebuttals of my earlier points, I’ll accept the critique of persecution of political opponents, and am glad that you draw the distinction between what is happening in Austria today, and what happened 80odd years ago.

Accepting that there is a slippery slope, I still regard them as fundamentally different in nature. There’s a profound difference between regimes whose nature is inherently totalitarian, claiming the loyalty of their subjects in all respects, and western democratic governments which are trying to respond to the current pandemic in knowledge of its deadly capability.

Reasonable liberal arguments against excessive restriction are just undermined by such overblown comparisons, which bear no historical scrutiny.

 

[Busaholic]

There is more detail about this on the BBC.

It is truly horrifying, and it is akin to what happened to Jews in Nazi controlled territories before they were rounded up and sent to concentration camps. (ie - they were forbidden from using public transport and could only use certain shops at certain times.... etc)

It is all pointless anyway, as vaccination protects the vaccinated person from serious illness, hospitalisation and death, so it doesn't matter if a vaccinated person comes into contact with an unvaccinated person.

I would like to think that a lockdown for the unvaccinated would never happen in the UK.

But there are definitely some more extreme locktivists who would advocate just such a measure.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-59245018

I'm getting an entirely different picture of the proposals and their background. For a start, the unvaccinated will still be able to use food stores and go to work i.e. much like it was for us during lockdowns, plus, so far as I can see, unlimited exercise. Now to that background: the main opposition Freedom Party, far right wing by their own admission , have championed vaccine scepticism, such that a third of the population remain unvaccinated. The governing party has probably estimated that a sizeable proportion of the unvaccinated will now choose to have the vaccine, just as our government has (presumably) assumed that a great number of NHS unvaccinated staff will choose the vaccine over losing their jobs: personally, I'm unpersuaded that this is a good decision, any more than the care home staff deadline was. Talk of the far right being the champions of 'freedom', in Austria of all places, is so wide of the mark that I despair, just as I would of a far left communist or fellow traveller party jumping on the anti-vacc conspiracy bandwagon. As I write, Edelweiss is being deconstructed on Radio 4: Climb Every Mountain and all that!

 

[bramling]

Responding to this as representative of the rebuttals of my earlier points, I’ll accept the critique of persecution of political opponents, and am glad that you draw the distinction between what is happening in Austria today, and what happened 80odd years ago.

Accepting that there is a slippery slope, I still regard them as fundamentally different in nature. There’s a profound difference between regimes whose nature is inherently totalitarian, claiming the loyalty of their subjects in all respects, and western democratic governments which are trying to respond to the current pandemic in knowledge of its deadly capability.

Reasonable liberal arguments against excessive restriction are just undermined by such overblown comparisons, which bear no historical scrutiny.

The problem is, as you say, there's the potential for a slippery slope. Things didn't just happen in the 1930s, a specific set of circumstances made incremental steps feasible. Substitute health crisis for economic crisis and there's at least the opportunity there. We all need to be very aware of the risk, and all need to ensure we don't slide down that slippery slope. Our own government in particular has a bit of a track record of using Covid as a means of slipping in other unrelated nasties, and as a society we need to keep a close eye on that.

And, to be honest, stuff like forcing students into their halls or jeering disabled people out of shops is already sailing uncomfortably close to the wind in my view.

 

[NorthKent1989]

Responding to this as representative of the rebuttals of my earlier points, I’ll accept the critique of persecution of political opponents, and am glad that you draw the distinction between what is happening in Austria today, and what happened 80odd years ago.

Accepting that there is a slippery slope, I still regard them as fundamentally different in nature. There’s a profound difference between regimes whose nature is inherently totalitarian, claiming the loyalty of their subjects in all respects, and western democratic governments which are trying to respond to the current pandemic in knowledge of its deadly capability.

Reasonable liberal arguments against excessive restriction are just undermined by such overblown comparisons, which bear no historical scrutiny.

You’re speaking like we’re back where we were 2 years ago, Covid is no longer deadly and has actually proven to be no worse than seasonal flu, I don’t know why you keep perpetuating this idea that Covid is deadly when it has a 99% survival rate.

Many countries can be democratic one day and totalitarian the next, what we are witnessing is the beginnings of a totalitarian regime, they don’t just spring up overnight you know, Covid has given Western authoritarians the excuse to act out their Orwellian fantasies, to say otherwise is just being in denial at this point.

 

[yorksrob]

It is interesting to see what's going on in the rest of Europe. I'm not inclined to think it's part of some great reversion to pre-1945 continental situations. Just European governments struggling to find a way.

That said, I am quietly hopeful that our current government will continue to hold its nerve against Pro restriction brigade. For better or worse, covid is part of our illness/mortality profile now. There must be no attempt to remodel human society/Western societal norms in its wake.

 

[bramling]

You’re speaking like we’re back where we were 2 years ago, Covid is no longer deadly and has actually proven to be no worse than seasonal flu, I don’t know why you keep perpetuating this idea that Covid is deadly when it has a 99% survival rate.

Many countries can be democratic one day and totalitarian the next, what we are witnessing is the beginnings of a totalitarian regime, they don’t just spring up overnight you know, Covid has given Western authoritarians the excuse to act out their Orwellian fantasies, to say otherwise is just being in denial at this point.

It doesn't help that the last 18 months have demonstrated that the government could probably get away with implementing *anything* off the back of a "save the NHS" message.

 

[takno]

I'm getting an entirely different picture of the proposals and their background. For a start, the unvaccinated will still be able to use food stores and go to work i.e. much like it was for us during lockdowns, plus, so far as I can see, unlimited exercise. Now to that background: the main opposition Freedom Party, far right wing by their own admission , have championed vaccine scepticism, such that a third of the population remain unvaccinated. The governing party has probably estimated that a sizeable proportion of the unvaccinated will now choose to have the vaccine, just as our government has (presumably) assumed that a great number of NHS unvaccinated staff will choose the vaccine over losing their jobs: personally, I'm unpersuaded that this is a good decision, any more than the care home staff deadline was. Talk of the far right being the champions of 'freedom', in Austria of all places, is so wide of the mark that I despair, just as I would of a far left communist or fellow traveller party jumping on the anti-vacc conspiracy bandwagon. As I write, Edelweiss is being deconstructed on Radio 4: Climb Every Mountain and all that!

The far-right already being a fairly mainstream political party in Austria, and this measure being so squarely and indecently targeted at their supporters, really creates a significant risk that the far right will take power in Austria.

The relentless determination of the political mainstream across Europe to overreact to Covid has created a worrying situation.

The uncaring imposition of needless authoritarian measures by mainstream governments has left much of the population either feeling that this is normal, or feeling that mainstreamness is no protection from authoritarianism. Add to that the fact that mainstream oppositions have ceded all opposition to this to some deeply unpleasant right-wing extremists.

All of this risks everyday authoritarians getting a foothold in government, and any opposition to their actions being muted by a willingness to go along with this kind of thing.