Omicron variant and the measures implemented in response to it

[duncanp]

Javid speaking in the Commons confirms that community transmission of Omicron is going on. Doesn't look like any new restrictions/measures are coming alongside at this stage, but one wonders how much pressure he'll receive and cave into in the run-up to Christmas?

Interestingly ex-PM May seems to be the sane one here:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-59545557

Sajid Javid's statement that we "..shouldn't jump to conclusions on the severity of Omicron before more data is available..." suggests to me that he is waiting for all the evidence to come in before reaching a conclusion, and that he is more likely to resist the pressure for new measures that anyone else.

Theresa May is of course quite right when she says that we can't keep stopping and starting the economy every time a new variant appears, and I think a growing number of people are starting to realise this.

 

[LAX54]

Reading various news reports online, from the BBC/Sky to The Telegraph, and some U.S reports, they all have interviews with Experts/Scientists/Professors etc, but there seems a common theme when they speak...... it is "Possibly" "Maybe" "Could be" nothing actually positive or certain

 

[Class 33]

Hope the likes of Starmer don't start continually whining again urging for "tougher measures" or even a lockdown. It was him urging Johnson for there to be an immediate "Circuit breaker lockdown" for a while late last year and the press and media continually advertising his(and SAGE's) whining every day which contributed to the second national lockdown. We really don't need this happening again. What is also worrying is all these other countries going into lockdown or introducing/reimposing "tough measures", and the feeling this country could follow suite to be seen to be "doing something to combat Omicron".

So far though, indications are that the Omicron variant is only causing MILD illness similar to a common cold! So absolutely no need for a lockdown or "tougher measures" to be introduced/reimposed!

 

[yorkie]

Hope the likes of Starmer don't start continually whining again urging for "tougher measures" or even a lockdown.

Starmer has already been pressing for tougher measures and will continue to do so. Labour are the party for lockdowns and restrictions; see above.

It was him urging Johnson for there to be an immediate "Circuit breaker lockdown" for a while late last year and the press and media continually advertising his(and SAGE's) whining every day which contributed to the second national lockdown. We really don't need this happening again. What is also worrying is all these other countries going into lockdown or introducing/reimposing "tough measures", and the feeling this country could follow suite to be seen to be "doing something to combat Omicron".

Labour are not going to fully get their way. Yes they will continue to moan and they continue to be clueless. Just ignore them. That's what I am doing.

So far though, indications are that the Omicron variant is only causing MILD illness similar to a common cold! So absolutely no need for a lockdown or "tougher measures" to be introduced/reimposed!

The argument will go that we do not yet have data to prove that Omicron is not "more dangerous" than Delta and therefore, until it can be proven it is not "more dangerous" it has to be assumed that it is more dangerous.

On the balance of probabilities, it appears to be most likely to be less dangerous, followed by no real difference, with the least likely outcome being it is more dangerous. We don't know yet, and the Government isn't going to admit to having enough data for at least a couple of weeks.

Teresa May is spot on:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-59545557

Former Conservative Prime Minister Theresa May says Omicron appears to be more transmissible than past variants but also appears to lead to less serious disease.

She says "variants will continue to appear year after year" and argues: "We cannot respond to each new variants by stopping and starting our economy which leads to businesses and jobs being lost".

Meanwhile in the US even Fauci is talking some sense:

"Thus far, it does not look like there’s a great degree of severity to it," he told CNN on Sunday. “But we have really got to be careful before we make any determinations that it is less severe or it really doesn’t cause any severe illness, comparable to Delta”.

Meanwhile Moderna are keen to cast doubt on the effectiveness of vaccines:

Stephen Hoge, president of Moderna, said there was a "real risk" existing vaccines may not be effective against the new strain.

Spoiler: it's not a new strain; there is very little risk of this; but of course companies like Moderna want to get funding to be able to develop updated versions of their vaccines in order to boost their profits. As one of the most pro-vaccine people you could meet, I find their methods of perusing profits, by casting doubt on the effectiveness of existing vaccines and spreading FUD, to be both dangerous and despicable.

 

[adc82140]

Meanwhile Moderna are keen to cast doubt on the effectiveness of vaccines:

Spoiler: it's not a new strain; there is very little risk of this; but of course companies like Moderna want to get funding to be able to develop updated versions of their vaccines in order to boost their profits. As one of the most pro-vaccine people you could meet, I find their methods of perusing profits, by casting doubt on the effectiveness of existing vaccines and spreading FUD, to be both dangerous and despicable.

It'll be self defeating for Moderna. Both Pfizer and AZ have said that their vaccines will likely be effective against Omicron. Moderna is the odd one out, and if they keep talking down their own vaccine, countries will stop buying it.

 

[yorkie]

Javid speaking in the Commons confirms that community transmission of Omicron is going on.

And I am able to confirm that the Pope is a Catholic.

It'll be self defeating for Moderna. Both Pfizer and AZ have said that their vaccines will likely be effective against Omicron. Moderna is the odd one out, and if they keep talking down their own vaccine, countries will stop buying it.

You'd have thought so, but I don't think these people think logically.

 

[DustyBin]

As one of the most pro-vaccine people you could meet, I find their methods of perusing profits, by casting doubt on the effectiveness of existing vaccines and spreading FUD, to be both dangerous and despicable.

FUD…… The last two years in three letters.

 

[bramling]

Javid speaking in the Commons confirms that community transmission of Omicron is going on. Doesn't look like any new restrictions/measures are coming alongside at this stage, but one wonders how much pressure he'll receive and cave into in the run-up to Christmas?

Interestingly ex-PM May seems to be the sane one here:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-59545557

The trouble is we have three things going on. Firstly the whole saga of Christmas falling in the middle of this latest scare. Secondly there’s the usual NHS winter pressures which tend to be worst in the few weeks after Christmas.

Then there’s all the clouds of uncertainty hovering over everything, not helped one bit by Johnson’s past record for empty promises, telling people what they want to hear, and u-turns. He lacks credibility.

 

[Pete_uk]

I doubt any restrictions will come in before Christmas, but it wouldn't surprise me if very soon after things change...

 

[Bantamzen]

Hope the likes of Starmer don't start continually whining again urging for "tougher measures" or even a lockdown. It was him urging Johnson for there to be an immediate "Circuit breaker lockdown" for a while late last year and the press and media continually advertising his(and SAGE's) whining every day which contributed to the second national lockdown. We really don't need this happening again. What is also worrying is all these other countries going into lockdown or introducing/reimposing "tough measures", and the feeling this country could follow suite to be seen to be "doing something to combat Omicron".

So far though, indications are that the Omicron variant is only causing MILD illness similar to a common cold! So absolutely no need for a lockdown or "tougher measures" to be introduced/reimposed!

I'm sure the melt Starmer will be going full on demanding more and more restrictions as the dangerous time of Christmas comes around....

I doubt any restrictions will come in before Christmas, but it wouldn't surprise me if very soon after things change...

But what if the data shows that the new variant is indeed milder as some are starting to think? Restrictions need to be justified.

 

[Mojo]

But what if the data shows that the new variant is indeed milder as some are starting to think? Restrictions need to be justified.

It doesn’t matter what is actually true, it matters what people think, and I’ve heard a lot of people talking a lot of gibberish over the past week.

 

[DustyBin]

It doesn’t matter what is actually true, it matters what people think, and I’ve heard a lot of people talking a lot of gibberish over the past week.

This is the danger as I’ve said before. Forget the facts, Omicron will be whatever they want it to be. As per usual the media are acting thoroughly irresponsibly, using labels such as “horrific”, “worst ever”, “super mutant” etc.

For what it’s worth, and whilst I understand the need for certainty, if it were more deadly than Delta I think we’d know by now.

 

[kristiang85]

If Omicron does turn out to have neutralised the worst effects of COVID (i.e. is simply more like normal cold symptoms), then we should be doing everything in our power to help it spread and become dominant rather than the oppositie.

 

[Bantamzen]

It doesn’t matter what is actually true, it matters what people think, and I’ve heard a lot of people talking a lot of gibberish over the past week.

Its been truly depressing seeing some of the pseudo-science on both sides of the scale, and even more depressing to see some people gleefully calling for other people's lives to be curtailed just to keep them feeling safe.

 

[Eyersey468]

It doesn’t matter what is actually true, it matters what people think, and I’ve heard a lot of people talking a lot of gibberish over the past week.

This is the danger as I’ve said before. Forget the facts, Omicron will be whatever they want it to be. As per usual the media are acting thoroughly irresponsibly, using labels such as “horrific”, “worst ever”, “super mutant” etc.

For what it’s worth, and whilst I understand the need for certainty, if it were more deadly than Delta I think we’d know by now.

Its been truly depressing seeing some of the pseudo-science on both sides of the scale, and even more depressing to see some people gleefully calling for other people's lives to be curtailed just to keep them feeling safe.

I agree with all of this

 

[Jonny]

Hope the likes of Starmer don't start continually whining again urging for "tougher measures" or even a lockdown. It was him urging Johnson for there to be an immediate "Circuit breaker lockdown" for a while late last year and the press and media continually advertising his(and SAGE's) whining every day which contributed to the second national lockdown. We really don't need this happening again. What is also worrying is all these other countries going into lockdown or introducing/reimposing "tough measures", and the feeling this country could follow suite to be seen to be "doing something to combat Omicron".

So far though, indications are that the Omicron variant is only causing MILD illness similar to a common cold! So absolutely no need for a lockdown or "tougher measures" to be introduced/reimposed!

If Starmer isn't careful, he will look like the boy who cried wolf in the folk tale. It may be a fictitious tale, but it comes with a 'moral', a learning point if you will, that Starmer may look dumb - either if nothing happens or if it becomes obvious to a blind, hypothetical and even fictional animal that Omicron is so mild that serious/hospital cases fall during a surge.

 

[eastdyke]

If Omicron does turn out to have neutralised the worst effects of COVID (i.e. is simply more like normal cold symptoms), then we should be doing everything in our power to help it spread and become dominant rather than the oppositie.

If it is as 'infectious' as has been [possibly] implied then the reported 'doubling of cases every 3 days' would mean that the entire UK population would have had Omicron around 50 days from now.
Clearly the dynamics could never be that simple but, I for one, will be interested to see where we are at come the end of January.

For those interested in following what is happening in Gauteng [the supposed initial source hot bed of Omicron] this might be useful:

Coronavirus South Africa Overview | Covid-19 South Africa

This site serves as a monitoring tool for the development of the coronavirus in South Africa.

www.covid19sa.org

This site serves as a monitoring tool of the development of the coronavirus in South Africa. This data, in conjunction with global inputs and local parameters, are being used to provide predictions for the spread and impact of the coronavirus in the country. The work is performed by an interdisciplinary team of scientists from Wits University and iThemba LABS of the NRF in collaboration with the data analytics team of DataConvergence.
Link : List of contributors to covid19sa

The Covid-19 South Africa Dashboard has good graphical representation of Cases, Active Cases and Fatalities.

By way of background Gauteng is by far the most densely populated South African Province, around 25% of the population in just 1.5% of the land area.

 

[Eyersey468]

If Starmer isn't careful, he will look like the boy who cried wolf in the folk tale. It may be a fictitious tale, but it comes with a 'moral', a learning point if you will, that Starmer may look dumb - either if nothing happens or if it becomes obvious to a blind, hypothetical and even fictional animal that Omicron is so mild that serious/hospital cases fall during a surge.

Not just Starmer, there's a few that have cried wolf once too often

 

[ChrisC]

Its been truly depressing seeing some of the pseudo-science on both sides of the scale, and even more depressing to see some people gleefully calling for other people's lives to be curtailed just to keep them feeling safe.

There have been a number of references in this thread to Theresa May speaking in Parliament yesterday when she said that we can't keep stopping and starting the economy every time a new variant appears. As the former Prime minister she made real mess of trying to sort out Brexit, but although she has only spoken occasionally during this pandemic, each time it has been with sensible comments, offering a real alternative to the lockdown mentality of Labour and others. If she had still been the Prime minister things could have been far different during the past 18 months. I certainly think that she would have been far more organised and systematic in her approach than Borris. I also think that she may have been more caring regarding people’s mental health especially with matters like visiting the dying in hospital and attending funerals.

 

[bramling]

There have been a number of references in this thread to Theresa May speaking in Parliament yesterday when she said that we can't keep stopping and starting the economy every time a new variant appears. As the former Prime minister she made real mess of trying to sort out Brexit, but although she has only spoken occasionally during this pandemic, each time it has been with sensible comments, offering a real alternative to the lockdown mentality of Labour and others. If she had still been the Prime minister things could have been far different during the past 18 months. I certainly think that she would have been far more organised and systematic in her approach than Borris. I also think that she may have been more caring regarding people’s mental health especially with matters like visiting the dying in hospital and attending funerals.

To be fair we never really got the chance to see what May would have been properly like as PM, she was dealt a terrible pack of cards by her predecessor. One way or other, she'd have been better than Johnson. There's certainly evidence of thought and analysis in what she has been coming out with. Anything has to be better than Peppa Pig!

 

[adc82140]

Not just Starmer, there's a few that have cried wolf once too often

And this has bred anti vaxxers. The vaccines do work, and have been through the proper validation. But I can understand why people don't believe that. After all, we have been repeatedly lied to about many things by the government and the media during this pandemic.

 

[Eyersey468]

And this has bred anti vaxxers. The vaccines do work, and have been through the proper validation. But I can understand why people don't believe that. After all, we have been repeatedly lied to about many things by the government and the media during this pandemic.

I agree the government and the media have told a lot of lies during the pandemic.

 

[Bantamzen]

And this has bred anti vaxxers. The vaccines do work, and have been through the proper validation. But I can understand why people don't believe that. After all, we have been repeatedly lied to about many things by the government and the media during this pandemic.

Exactly, those most in favour of continuing restrictions are undermining the success of the vaccines by sending the message that this or another variant might not be "broken through" so we need more restrictions, whilst demanding faster and more boosters. No wonder more and more people are becoming distrusting and cynical.

 

[43066]

To be fair we never really got the chance to see what May would have been properly like as PM, she was dealt a terrible pack of cards by her predecessor. One way or other, she'd have been better than Johnson. There's certainly evidence of thought and analysis in what she has been coming out with. Anything has to be better than Peppa Pig!

Not sure she would have been better pre pandemic - she made a complete buggers muddle of Brexit which would only have got worse had she continued. The jury is out for me post covid - yes Johnson is weak and easily led - but I somehow suspect May would have been more doveish and pro restriction.

I suspect Sunak (or even Javid) would have done a better job of covid than either.

 

[Eyersey468]

Exactly, those most in favour of continuing restrictions are undermining the success of the vaccines by sending the message that this or another variant might not be "broken through" so we need more restrictions, whilst demanding faster and more boosters. No wonder more and more people are becoming distrusting and cynical.

I don't trust a word the government or the media says, they have lied and given false promises once too often. Nor for that matter am I prepared to have booster after booster for the rest of my life.

 

[greyman42]

I don't trust a word the government or the media says, they have lied and given false promises once too often. Nor for that matter am I prepared to have booster after booster for the rest of my life.

Would it be any worse than having an annual flu jab?

 

[Peterthegreat]

Would it be any worse than having an annual flu jab?

Probably not for most people.

 

[adc82140]

I opt not to have the flu jab because each time I've had it I've been sick for a week. That's my choice, and I respect the choices of others. The difference with the Covid booster is that it's being treated like some great altruistic endeavour, with the associated social pressures.

 

[Eyersey468]

Would it be any worse than having an annual flu jab?

Probably not, I'm not against a booster programme per se, I think the most vulnerable should have them, however I don't believe it is necessary to give everyone boosters every year

 

[quantinghome]

A quick look at this page shows several posts slagging off Starmer for something or other. But what has he actually been asking for since Omicron emerged? All I can see is him asking that the government brings in pre-departure checks for flights, which the government then did. And he's called for the booster rollout to be ramped up and... well that's it really. I can't see anywhere where he's called for a lockdown or even more restrictions. Meanwhile Sturgeon has asked people to work from home for the next month.