I would draw a distinction between objections to individual policies, and party allegiances. Especially when we're probably 3 years away from a General Election and it's entirely possible that neither of the two major UK party leaders would be around to fight that election.
I would also draw a distinction between the very strong feelings of some members of the forum, where opposition to Covid policies appears as a dominant feature of their political outlook, and the majority of the population, for whom those Covid policies are one of a number of factors that will influence their vote.
Certainly true re. the party leaders not necessarily sticking around. Albeit I suspect the analysis around which is most likely to go first has changed in recent weeks. I rather suspect Johnson’s strategy will be to go for an election as soon as a sustained Covid recovery is in evidence, win and then potentially plan an exit strategy for himself during the next Parliament, hand over to Sunak and ride off into the sunset (and the after dinner circuit).
I had reservations about Johnson but I suppose backed him in 2019 because Brexit was an important issue to me and it was clear he was the best shot of achieving something closer to it than some ghastly remaining-in-all-but-name fudge of the kind Teresa May was trying to cook up. That was probably still the right decision in hindsight. Covid came out of nowhere of course, but I think Johnson’s handling of it has utterly undone him and I’d honestly struggle to vote Tory with him at the helm. That analysis might well be different if we have Sunak or Javid leading at the next election. Sunak in particular seems charismatic and competent, albeit still relatively inexperienced.
In my case, as a natural "small c" conservative, the local Tories lost my vote due to the way that the local constituency party hounded out the then sitting MP during 2019, as part of the Brexiteers attempt to take over the party. My objection wasn't on policy grounds, but in connection with the mixture of petty minded nastiness that infected the decision, and my belief that MPs are elected to represent their constituents, not act as delegates for those constituents (or, more likely, a small but vocal faction of them). I dislike it when it appears in Labour (it's the view of what an MP is for that is particularly associated with the hard left), and I dislike it when it crops up elsewhere.
It’s interesting how Covid divides along almost exactly the same lines as Brexit did, but perhaps not surprising. If you’re the sort of small c conservative who has a libertarian bent, dislikes big government and interference in peoples’ private lives than its highly likely you will be vehemently opposed to Covid measures. Clearly if you were opposed to Brexit it’s a different analysis.
What is interesting is I imagine looking at that graph that the current polling for Reform is probably dissatisfied Tories.
I’m sure that’s right. Albeit historically quite a few Labour voters backed them during their Brexit party iteration.
their other policies were a grab-bag of populism and authoritarianism
“Classic” UKIP (ie during the Farage era, before the unfortunate lurch to the right) was more about Libertarianism than authoritarianism, surely?
What is the alternative? What you seem to be suggesting is that the opinions of people who have absolutely no idea about the subject they're talking about should be treated with the same weight as people who for have been studying it for years. Yes, some experts are politically motivated, but so are most other members of the public, especially considering some people's propensity to believe anything they are told. At least someone who actually knows what they're talking about won't give up their ideas for some pseudo-scientific nonsense on Facebook; at least, you'd hope not.
The concern many people have is the current trend for “experts” to be given free reign in the media to espouse what amount to political value judgements dressed up as scientific fact, without being subjected to the kind of scrutiny we (quite rightly) expose politicians to. Susan Michie is one of the best examples of this, but there are others.
Is it? It seems to me that what mostly drove both of those things was stagnation, leading to the general population wanting something fresh to blame for the world's problems, encouraged by a healthy does of manufactured outrage from the tabloids - certainly not what I advocate.
Stagnation - both economic and political - is undoubtedly part of it. Beyond that you’d probably find the reasons people voted as they did are as broad as any loose political coalition. Taking Brexit for example, I voted leave primarily because I see the EU as a failed, self serving and deeply undemocratic political project which the U.K. joined under the misapprehension that it was an economic trading bloc rather than a one way ticket to a self proclaimed superstate with a commitment to “ever closer Union”. Others were clearly concerned about freedom of movement which has been a fairly disastrous policy for several EU countries.
A feeling of being left behind is also an issue for many: if you were a traditional Labour voter who is pro Brexit, not interested in identity politics, and wants to move on from Covid who would you vote for? At this juncture it’s almost certainly not the Tories, but unlikely to be Labour either.