TFL & "Managed Decline"

[HSTEd]

Will the almost certain collapse in fare revenue from the newly ordered "Work From Home" materially worsen TfL's position?

Also rather changes the political calculus from strike action if we are going to have an empty tube again for months.

 

[rebmcr]

Also rather changes the political calculus from strike action if we are going to have an empty tube again for months.

Is there a time limit for scheduling strike action after a successful ballot?

 

[Andrew1395]

Is there a time limit for scheduling strike action after a successful ballot?

I am sure there is before a fresh ballot has to be done.

 

[MikeWh]

When bringing LU rate fares upto the higher national rail rate would be much simpler technically, effectively an 10% increase on rail mode ticket prices. Charging rail mode ticket prices on the tram network would also bring in an increase in revenue and remove anomalies like Wimbledon Station.

Effectively bringing the LU rate upto the NR rate would not be noticed as most people don't even know the LU rate is cheaper.

10%!!! Do you really think that someone travelling from Upminster to Whitechapel for £3.00/£1.70 is not going to notice when that rises to £4.60/£3.20? Then there's the zone 1 premium; Upminster to Oxford Circus is £5.30/£3.30 where Crayford to Oxford Circus is £8.60/£5.80.

The cheapest pay as you go price on rail modes should always be the same price or more expensive than a bus

I agree with this one.

This is the model used by tfl Rail to Heathrow where leisure traffic is charged at a premium and regular traffic isn't.

Really? A one-way journey is charged at a premium as are short two-way journeys.

 

[JonathanH]

Then there's the zone 1 premium; Upminster to Oxford Circus is £5.30/£3.30 where Crayford to Oxford Circus is £8.60/£5.80.

It is only a mixed-mode premium - Crayford to City Thameslink (ie NR scale cited by the OP) is £7.00/£4.30.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Will the almost certain collapse in fare revenue from the newly ordered "Work From Home" materially worsen TfL's position?

Also rather changes the political calculus from strike action if we are going to have an empty tube again for months.

Depends how long it lasts. It basically has a week left of what would be full commuting, and then 3 weeks when levels would be low anyway. I half wonder if a chunk of the plan is related to the amount of after-work drinking etc in that "last week" and the effect of that on spread.

If it only lasts a few weeks, then probably negligible.

 

[Cdd89]

The cheapest pay as you go price on rail modes should always be the same price or more expensive than a bus

Even in respect of railcard discounts?

 

[Bletchleyite]

Even in respect of railcard discounts?

There's not much logic in offering Railcard discounts on TfL services any more than on Manchester Metrolink or the T&W Metro. They could be reduced to being available only on paper tickets for National Rail travel only (plus cross-London interchange on tickets marked with the Maltese cross). That'd bring in a bit more money and remove a source of complication. I would be very surprised if that stopped anyone travelling, and it might also help in the move away from Oyster towards contactless.

Another possible cost saving would be the removal of cross-London transfer on rail tickets, as has been debated before, requiring such passengers to pay full fare, and allowing removal of all the magstripe readers which must cost money to maintain. Day Travelcards could, like Merseytravel Saveaways, be ITSO only, but to avoid the faff most people would just buy a day return to London Terminals and use their contactless card, bringing in a further little extra. I'd bet quite a few already do so as to use an e-ticket for the train bit.

 

[matt_world2004]

Even in respect of railcard discounts?

Yes

 

[Cdd89]

Restricted to tickets for National Rail travel only (plus cross-London interchange on tickets marked with the Maltese cross).

This would create a lot of situations where Paper tickets are cheaper than Oyster even for intra-London travel. I’m not sure these inconsistencies are good for trust in the system.

As for making it NR only, this would risk making TfL services uncompetitive, which could have negative revenue implications on TfL rather than a positive one.

 

[Wolfie]

There's not much logic in offering Railcard discounts on TfL services any more than on Manchester Metrolink or the T&W Metro. They could be reduced to being available only on paper tickets for National Rail travel only (plus cross-London interchange on tickets marked with the Maltese cross). That'd bring in a bit more money and remove a source of complication. I would be very surprised if that stopped anyone travelling, and it might also help in the move away from Oyster towards contactless.

Another possible cost saving would be the removal of cross-London transfer on rail tickets, as has been debated before, requiring such passengers to pay full fare, and allowing removal of all the magstripe readers which must cost money to maintain. Day Travelcards could, like Merseytravel Saveaways, be ITSO only, but to avoid the faff most people would just buy a day return to London Terminals and use their contactless card, bringing in a further little extra. I'd bet quite a few already do so as to use an e-ticket for the train bit.

Re your second para: Wonderful, thus screwing delay repay on journeys that involve transiting London.

Oh, and it's amazing how London Overground and TfL rail suddenly aren't National Rail when you want to increase fares.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Re your second para: Wonderful, thus screwing delay repay on journeys that involve transiting London.

I can't see any issue with Delay Repay on a through ticket across London but without the + provided you allow the specified connection time across London.

 

[Wolfie]

I can't see any issue with Delay Repay on a through ticket across London but without the + provided you allow the specified connection time across London.

Well, it isn't part of the contracted journey anymore for a start...

 

[Bletchleyite]

Well, it isn't part of the contracted journey anymore for a start...

Delay Repay works in whatever way the Government wants it to. It can literally specify it however it likes. And post NPR the TOCs will have no involvement in it anyway.

 

[leytongabriel]

That isn’t true whatsoever. There are no plans for the station staff framework to be changed again, and the staff taxi network isn’t being changed either.

That is NOT what I'm told by a member of station staff and RMT

 

[mmh]

That's before you consider division of communities due to traffic,

That's not a great argument, given the low proportion of roads which genuinely divide communities, compared with railway lines which inevitably do.

Delay Repay works in whatever way the Government wants it to. It can literally specify it however it likes. And post NPR the TOCs will have no involvement in it anyway.

NPR? Slip of the keyboard and you mean GBR?

 

[Lewlew]

That is NOT what I'm told by a member of station staff and RMT

Don't listen to what the RMT are saying. They often take things out of context and massively blow things out of proportion to get people on their side. If they actually communicated with their members and management then they might find themselves in a better position to negotiate.

Unfortunately they've lost all their credibility. Especially with the issues in head office.

 

[Bletchleyite]

NPR? Slip of the keyboard and you mean GBR?

Yes, sorry.

 

[AlbertBeale]

That's not a great argument, given the low proportion of roads which genuinely divide communities, compared with railway lines which inevitably do.

For people with mobility problems, very many main roads divide communities. There are lots of places in London, for example, where roads are a signficant barrier to day-to-day life if it involves interacting with neighbours, traders, etc, who are part of the same "place" but over the road.

 

[geoffk]

Andrew Adonis has said, during an exchange in the HoL, that if buses in London could increase their average speed by 1 mph, it would save TfL nearly £200m a year in running costs. The same applies in other towns and cities of course. Over the years buses have become gradually slower because of traffic congestion, resulting in additional buses and crews being required to maintain service levels.

 

[Ediswan]

(sorry about the long "via Google" URL):

For next time, here is a tool to de-clutter Google search results: https://urlclean.com/

Using it on your link gives: https://www.hvv.de/resource/blob/10...an_metrobus_alle_haltestellen_schematisch.pdf

 

[MikeWh]

Just received the following press release:

TfL Statement - TfL Funding Update

Transport for London (TfL) today issued the following update on Government funding: A Transport for London (TfL) spokesperson said: “We continue to discuss our funding requirements with the Government, who have today indicated their intention to extend our funding support for TfL through until17 December 2021. “There is no UK recovery from the pandemic without a London recovery and there is no London recovery without a properly funded transport network in the capital. We hope the discussions can be successfully concluded soon.” Additional Information: TfL provides the following information to the markets: Government Funding Discussions TfL announces that discussions with the Department for Transport (the “DfT”) in relation to our future funding requirements are ongoing and that TfL remains in a position to meet its operational and contractual obligations in the near term, whilst discussions conclude. On 1 June 2021, TfL announced that an extraordinary funding and financing support package (the "Funding Package") had been agreed between TfL and the DfT to support transport services in London and contribute towards TfL's forecast revenue loss due to reduced passenger numbers using TfL services as a result of the pandemic. The Funding Package provided support for the period from 29 May 2021 to 11 December 2021. TfL continues to discuss funding requirements with DfT for the period beyond 11 December 2021 and understands that Government intends to extend the current arrangements to 17 December 2021. We await confirmation of that extension and its terms. Ends

I'm sorry, but extending a deal by 6 days on the day before the old one ends does not inspire any confidence.

 

[rebmcr]

I'm sorry, but extending a deal by 6 days on the day before the old one ends does not inspire any confidence.

It would seem to be merely a 'bridge' between the current deal and the commencement of the next one, the negotiation of which will presumably conclude before 17 Dec.

 

[MikeWh]

It would seem to be merely a 'bridge' between the current deal and the commencement of the next one, the negotiation of which will presumably conclude before 17 Dec.

Yes, but until that deal is concluded TfL have no certainty. And if past discussions are anything to go by, the deal will be signed in the last hour of Dec 17th.

 

[bramling]

Yes, but until that deal is concluded TfL have no certainty. And if past discussions are anything to go by, the deal will be signed in the last hour of Dec 17th.

Perhaps the government are too busy having Christmas parties?

Seriously, the whole thing is yet more unsatisfactory conduct from this government, and it’s pretty obvious the ring-leader in this is Johnson. The vendetta against TfL is pretty obvious.

Much as Khan isn’t everyone’s favourite cup of tea (and certainly not mine) the government should be rising above this.

 

[The Ham]

Perhaps the government are too busy having Christmas parties?

I thought they are scheduled for the 19th, which is why this extension ends before then, as no one wants that hanging over their Christmas party!!!

 

[Snow1964]

Yes, but until that deal is concluded TfL have no certainty. And if past discussions are anything to go by, the deal will be signed in the last hour of Dec 17th.

last part of TfL press release says

TfL continues to discuss funding requirements with DfT for the period beyond 11 December 2021 and understands that Government intends to extend the current arrangements to 17 December 2021. We await confirmation of that extension and its terms.

so not clear to me that they have even got 6 days extra funding, or if they have a half promise that Government will give TfL bit of money providing they agree to certain things.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

last part of TfL press release says


so not clear to me that they have even got 6 days extra funding, or if they have a half promise that Government will give TfL bit of money providing they agree to certain things.

This confirmed by Shapps this morning

Interim extension of current Transport for London funding settlement

I am updating the House on an interim extension of the current Transport for London (TfL) funding settlement that was due to expire on 11 December 2021 by one week. This has been agreed by the Mayor of London.

On 8 December 2021, the Department for Transport (DfT) received a letter from the Mayor of London that provided further information on how TfL and the Mayor will raise new income of between £0.5 billion and £1 billion in line with the commitment agreed under the June 2021 emergency settlement. This response was already 3 weeks past the original deadline of 12 November 2021.

Government requires further clarification on these proposals and the Mayor of London has been asked to provide more detailed information by 15 December 2021. Should sufficient information be received, work on an extended further settlement will continue to support the capital and its transport network. We have thus far supported London with over £4 billion funding and will make sure services are protected whilst work on the next settlement is underway.

Support to TfL has always been on the condition that TfL reaches financial sustainability as soon as possible and with a target date of April 2023. The condition on identifying new or increased income sources is integral to TfL achieving that objective.

An extension of the existing funding settlement will provide TfL with support until 17 December 2021 by rolling over the provisions of the existing settlement, providing continued support to TfL and certainty to Londoners while we work with TfL on their funding needs.

The government is committed to supporting London and the transport network on which it depends, whilst balancing that with supporting the national transport network. I will update the House on the details of the next financial settlement after the close of this extension period.

Khan just needs to pander to them with a bit of grovelling and monies in the bank is how i interpret this.

 

[JonathanH]

It appears that some proposals are now being made as to how to address the TfL funding issues, the most pertinent being withdrawal of paper travelcards, a higher cost to access Heathrow on the Piccadilly Line, fare increases and increases in the eligibility age for free travel.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/lon...-tube-bus-fares-heathrow-premium-b972232.html

Sadiq Khan proposes council tax hikes, inflation-busting fares and Heathrow premium to ease TfL funding crisis
The mayor hopes the changes to the fares structure will raise £60m to £80m a year

Years of council tax hikes, inflation-busting fare rises and premium fares for Heathrow passengers were announced on Wednesday evening by Sadiq Khan.

The mayor said he planned to increase his share of council tax by an average of £20 a year for the next three years as part of a desperate bid to ease the financial crisis at Transport for London.

A fares hike of the RPI rate of inflation plus one per cent is also likely from January, adding about five per cent to the cost of Tube, bus and London Overground travel.

Free travel for Londoners aged 60 and older will be restricted, with age eligibility for the 60+ Oyster card increasing by six months each year, for the next 12 years, under the proposals.

Households already pay an average of £363 a year to City Hall and Mr Khan’s announcement did not rule out further hikes, for example to provide extra funds for the Metropolitan police. Adding £20 a year to Band D bills should raise £172m a year for TfL.

Mr Khan said he was withdrawing from the Travelcard scheme, which is used by National Rail commuters to travel on the Tube and buses.

Clarification was awaited from City Hall but it appears that passengers will have to switch to the Pay As You Go system, using Contactless bank cards or Oyster cards. It appears that “paper” Travelcards will be scrapped.

Tube journeys on the Piccadilly line between Zone 1 and Heathrow airport will be charged at premium rates throughout the day. Crossrail fares will also include a Heathrow premium.

Daily and weekly price caps will remain in place to help limit costs for airport workers.

Mr Khan hopes the changes to the fares structure will raise £60m to £80m a year.

The deposit on an Oyster card will increase from £5 to £7.

All the proposals will be consulted upon before being introduced. New fares normally start in January while council tax increase from April.

The proposals were announced in Mr Khan’s latest bid to secure a long-term funding deal from the Government for TfL.

The current bailout, the third since the start of the pandemic, runs out on Friday after being extended for a week by Transport Secretary Grant Shapps, who said more time was needed to consider the Mayor’s money-raising proposals.

TfL is required to become self-sufficient from April 2023, and has been told to generate an extra £500m to £1bn a year in income.

TfL wants £500m for the remainder of this financial year, £1.1bn for 2022/23 and £400m to £500m for the two subsequent financial years, plus agreements on long-term capital funding to maintain and upgrade the capital’s transport network.

The Government has already given TfL more than £4bn to keep services running after passenger numbers collapsed – with the latest work from home rules sending morning rush hour Tube journeys below 50 per cent of normal levels this week.

Mr Khan said: “The sole cause of TfL’s financial problems is Covid-19 and, with the emergence of the Omicron variant and the new guidance to work from home, it’s never been more urgent for the Government to agree a fair, sustainable, long-term funding deal for TfL – for the benefit of our capital city and the whole country.

“The Government is still refusing to properly fund TfL and Ministers are effectively holding London to ransom, threatening to withhold all emergency funding unless even more significant additional revenue is raised from Londoners for TfL.

“This means that in order to help save TfL from collapse and to safeguard London’s economy, we have been left with no alternative but to plan to increase council tax in London by around £20 a year over the next three years. This is not something I want to do, but we’re being forced down this route by the Government’s refusal to properly support TfL or to enable us to raise additional revenue fairly by devolving powers.”

Mr Khan has been forced to come up with the proposals after the Government refused to hand the £500m a year paid by London motorists in VED car tax back to City Hall.

It also refused to back a Greater London boundary charge or to allow the Mayor to impose a new levy on online delivery drivers.

Mr Khan said that even with the new sources of revenue, TfL would still have to make significant cuts to bus and Tube services, planning on the basis of “managed decline”.

He has previously threatened to axe 100 bus routes, curtail 200 more and cut Tube services by nine per cent - including possibly shutting an entire line, with the Bakerloo at most risk.

What might be interesting is whether withdrawal from the travelcard scheme might mean that the abililty to put a paper ticket through TfL ticket barriers is withdrawn and that removal of cross-London travel on paper tickets is also to abolished.

 

[matt_world2004]

It appears that some proposals are now being made as to how to address the TfL funding issues, the most pertinent being withdrawal of paper travelcards, a higher cost to access Heathrow on the Piccadilly Line, fare increases and increases in the eligibility age for free travel.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/lon...-tube-bus-fares-heathrow-premium-b972232.html

What might be interesting is whether withdrawal from the travelcard scheme might mean that the abililty to put a paper ticket through TfL ticket barriers is withdrawn and that removal of cross-London travel on paper tickets is also to abolished.

How would this work jn tfl Rail and London Overground?