Omicron variant and the measures implemented in response to it

[Cowley]

There was significant concern for a number of years, which resulted in significantly reduced take-up of the MMR vaccine. However, the original Lancet paper was eventually shown to be fraudulent, no other study has been able to replicated the findings, and the author had a massive conflict of interest.

But don't take my word for it:

Lancet MMR autism fraud - Wikipedia
How the case against the MMR vaccine was fixed | The BMJ

I think that it’s probably going to be best if we leave the debate around the MMR vaccine there for now.
It is probably worth reading the link above but I don’t think it’s going to change many opinions and it isn’t really relevant to what’s being discussed here anyway which is the situation as it is now.

If people are hesitant about getting Covid jabs at the moment then that is relevant and to a point is worth discussing (constructively!) but that’s current and relevant.

Thanks everyone.

 

[Yew]

By the way for those who have been saying that the infections are all mostly in the under-60s and therefore no bother, here is the heat map for my borough in south London where cases are rising very fast now. Note the diagonal edge of blue pointing upwards at top right- cases are spreading into older age groups just as you would expect when they are widespread (and there are those brave folks standing up for freedom and going maskless into the shops and buses which many elderly people have no choice but to use, especially in urban areas). And it's those older age groups where having a booster has been shown to have the most obvious benefit.

View attachment 107119

A log color scale, now that's quite something!

 

[Ediswan]

A log color scale, now that's quite something!

Agreed (other than the US spelling), very flat at the high values. My suspicion is that whoever set the scale was not expecting the higher values to be so common. Should have re-aligned the scale, but doing that leads to claims of cheating.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

NHS England hospital stats 815 admissions vs 794 although this is the lag measure to allow for acquired Covid in hospital but total hospitalised in England as of 0900 morning is 6405 +47 on yesterday although London again is accelerating upwards by +88 with most other regions static or declining slightly.

Next week will be real test whether hospitalised paces case increases or not.

 

[Baxenden Bank]

I am struggling to understand what is so challenging and difficult about getting a simple vaccination?

Now isnt the time to throw toys out the pram because xyz was said last year by abc.

It only takes an hour and a small bit of pain. I would rather face that than face other restrictions.

As for costs, it is far better value than other measures and as for concerns for what is in it, I dont think people even look at the ingredients in a lovely pint of local ale!

Who said it was difficult and challenging?

Although the three examples given in The Times yesterday may wish to debate that with you. Or the examples given in my local paper where the nearest walk-in centre was 30 miles away.

If everyone has the jab 'tomorrow' do you think restrictions will be lifted, and when?

 

[43066]

By the way for those who have been saying that the infections are all mostly in the under-60s and therefore no bother, here is the heat map for my borough in south London where cases are rising very fast now. Note the diagonal edge of blue pointing upwards at top right- cases are spreading into older age groups just as you would expect when they are widespread (and there are those brave folks standing up for freedom and going maskless into the shops and buses which many elderly people have no choice but to use, especially in urban areas). And it's those older age groups where having a booster has been shown to have the most obvious benefit.

View attachment 107119

I’m not quite sure what your point is here.

Re the masks comment - you appear to be scapegoating those choosing (quite rightly in my view) not to observe a silly, ineffective ritual which has no value beyond signalling virtue. As noted above why not suggest something that might make an actual difference (ie that those elderly people wear FFP3 masks)?

That attitude really sums up the downright sinister response to this pandemic: ignoring factual information and evidence and scapegoating those who don’t comply.

As for elderly people benefiting most from boosters (and vaccines in general) - well that stands to reason as the risk of severe disease from Covid rises hugely with age. Shock horror that’s why they were offered boosters first.

That still isn’t a sensible justification for vaccine passports or mandating vaccines for those who don’t want them though, especially when people in those groups tend to be much younger, at extremely low risk of severe covid and therefore at extremely low risk of placing a burden on the NHS anyway.

 

[AlterEgo]

Not really appropriate to weaponize anyone's death for propaganda purposes.

I dunno, if someone’s son comes on the radio and says his dad died because he was in a car crash and not wearing a seatbelt, I think people are entitled to say his father was unwise. It is, in almost every case imaginable, wiser and less risky to take the vaccine than to refuse it.

Vaccine skepticism doesn’t emerge for its own sake. It is in response to (often inaccurately!) perceived inconsistencies in the narrative around Covid.

Messaging like heightening the personal sense of risk, overselling face covering efficacy, overrepresenting younger hospitalisations or long Covid, and worst-case predictions to achieve short term compliance do so at the expensive of vaccine confidence.

All of these things can be credibly countered by convincing data, and that makes such sources trusted in delivering less convincing data which presents Covid as a non-threat and vaccines as useless or damaging.

If we had limited restrictions to the minimum contexts and time periods necessary, I don’t think there would be half as many anti-vaxxers. Where would they have derived the impetus to buy into the alternative media? But unfortunately we just keep digging, now by refusing to acknowledge the possibility that Omicron may be less severe (whether inherently or contextually) despite increasingly strong evidence that this may be the case.

I think this is a good summary, especially the bit I bolded. Most people aren’t as stupid as the government thinks they are. Omicron is clearly less severe and the only risk to “our beloved NHS” is in a very rapid ratcheting of cases and people presenting to the hospital in sheer weight of numbers. But, if they ratchet up as fast as some predictions say, everyone will pretty much have been infected by January 1st and the panic is over.

What is depressing is the number of people willing to believe in conspiracy and conceit when actually…the government isn’t really very good. It’s one thing people in this country like to do very much: deny their own agency and decry the “massive powerful state” and how we are all just cogs in a machine… our government is a feckless, useless paper tiger born from a pretentious and calcified middle class and our state capacity to do just about anything has been eroded for about 40 years or more.

 

[duncanp]

Omicron is clearly less severe and the only risk to “our beloved NHS” is in a very rapid ratcheting of cases and people presenting to the hospital in sheer weight of numbers. But, if they ratchet up as fast as some predictions say, everyone will pretty much have been infected by January 1st and the panic is over.

Indeed, if the cumulative number of infections (not "cases") was 200,000 two days at the beginning of this week, and the doubling time is two days, as has been suggested, some simple maths will show that by Christmas Day, two thirds of the UK population will have been infected.

At which point the rate of increase in cases should start to get less, and the doubling time start to increase, as the virus struggles to find new people to infect.

This has already happened in South Africa, where the doubling time is now nine days rather than two days.

If Omicron has peaked by early in the new year, I think we may avoid any further restrictions in England particularly if, as looks likely, the Conservatives lose the North Shropshire by election.

A key factor will be the number of hospitalisations, not just the number admitted per day, but the average length of time spent in hospital, and the proportion of patients who require intensive care.

 

[yorksrob]

and our state capacity to do just about anything has been eroded for about 40 years or more.

Most of this countries problems boil down to this truth. The AZ vaccine being the surprising and welcome exception.

 

[DustyBin]

Most of this countries problems boil down to this truth. The AZ vaccine being the surprising and welcome exception.

Is the AZ vaccine still administered in the UK out of interest?

 

[21C101]

What is depressing is the number of people willing to believe in conspiracy and conceit when actually…the government isn’t really very good. It’s one thing people in this country like to do very much: deny their own agency and decry the “massive powerful state” and how we are all just cogs in a machine… our government is a feckless, useless paper tiger born from a pretentious and calcified middle class and our state capacity to do just about anything has been eroded for about 40 years or more.

Nail on head with one reservation, the word "government" gives the idea that if your favoured party sweeps to power and the evil governing party is ejected it can all be sorted.

It can't. The problem is, as you state, the pretentious, calcified, and I would add highly decadent, middle class.

History tells us this will not end well. When the governing class rots from within, then people eventually clutch at any plausible straw, and there are rarely outsiders equipped with the skills to manage something of this complexity.

I suspect this is one reason that hereditary monarchies are so persistent, it is something that needs lifelong training to do well.

Our transition from a hereditary monarchy and aristocracy controlling all the main levers to democratically elected politicians (from a universal, not limited, franchise) is still barely over a century old and I fear the wheels are coming off much as Alexander Fraser Tytler predicted they would.

 

[DustyBin]

Nail on head with one reservation, the word "government" gives the idea that if your favoured party sweeps to power and the evil governing party is ejected it can all be sorted.

It can't. The problem is, as you state, the pretentious, calcified, and I would add highly decadent, middle class.

History tells us this will not end well. When the governing class rots from within, then people eventually clutch at any plausible straw, and there are rarely outsiders equipped with the skills to manage something of this complexity.

I suspect this is one reason that hereditary monarchies are so persistent, it is something that needs lifelong training to do well.

Our transition from a hereditary monarchy and aristocracy controlling all the main levers to democratically elected politicians (from a universal, not limited, franchise) is still barely over a century old and I fear the wheels are coming off much as Alexander Fraser Tytler predicted they would.

The other alarming thing, to me at least, is that governments across the Western world appear to be acting in a coordinated manner. Whilst there’s undoubtably a degree of sheep syndrome involved, when it comes to things like vaccine passports I don’t see how anybody can rule out conspiracy (for want of a better word) with 100% confidence. Handing increased power and control to people who crave power and control, then expecting them to surrender it willingly at the first opportunity, is incredibly naive in my opinion.

Yes there are some silly conspiracy theories out there (5G anybody?) and I don’t claim to know what’s really happening, but the assertion that what we are witnessing is born purely out of incompetence ceased to credible some time ago, to me at least.

 

[Pete_uk]

The by- result should focus a few minds

 

[21C101]

The other alarming thing, to me at least, is that governments across the Western world appear to be acting in a coordinated manner. Whilst there’s undoubtably a degree of sheep syndrome involved, when it comes to things like vaccine passports I don’t see how anybody can rule out conspiracy (for want of a better word) with 100% confidence. Handing increased power and control to people who crave power and control, then expecting them to surrender it willingly at the first opportunity, is incredibly naive in my opinion.

Yes there are some silly conspiracy theories out there (5G anybody?) and I don’t claim to know what’s really happening, but the assertion that what we are witnessing is born purely out of incompetence ceased to credible some time ago, to me at least.

I think that the Brexit referendum result and Trumps victory a year later frightened the wits out of governing classes across the west, hence the instinctive tilt by them towards authoritarianism.

 

[yorksrob]

Is the AZ vaccine still administered in the UK out of interest?

Not widely at the moment. Not that that matters particularly - it's done its job.

 

[DustyBin]

I think that the Brexit referendum result and Trumps victory a year later frightened the wits out of governing classes across the west, hence the instinctive tilt by them towards authoritarianism.

I agree with you, this will certainly be a contributory factor. The point is that the relationship between the state and the populace is fundamentally changing and I don’t believe it’s all purely coincidental (or the result of incompetence). You know what they say about a good crisis……

Not widely at the moment. Not that that matters particularly - it's done its job.

So well that we now need an mRNA booster! That’s despite, as of a few days ago at least, AZ maintaining that two jabs offered adequate long term protection against all variants. So has it does it’s job or not? And if it has why is there such determination to undermine its efficacy?

 

[DelayRepay]

A huge chunk of people who have had, current have or will get Covid won't even know about it because they were/are/will be completely symptomless.

Yes, that was my point. Half my friends seem to have Covid - none of them are ill apart from a couple who have sniffles. Most of them only know they have it because their kids tested positive following school outbreaks.

The only person I know who is ill is someone who is in their 60s and refused the vaccines. I'm sorry to say that while I respect her decision, I don't have a huge deal of sympathy.

 

[yorksrob]

So well that we now need an mRNA booster! That’s despite, as of a few days ago at least, AZ maintaining that two jabs offered adequate long term protection against all variants. So has it does it’s job or not? And if it has why is there such determination to undermine its efficacy?

The mRNA vaccine also needs a booster, so I don't see that that's an AZ issue particularly.

As it happens, I'm pretty confident that the 2 shots of AZ have given me adequate protection against death and serious illness. The booster makes it less likely for me to get some nasty cold-type symptoms and pass it on to someone more likely to have a worse reaction, which is a bonus.

 

[ainsworth74]

Just a note to say that the discussion about new restrictions in Wales can now be found in this thread.

 

[DustyBin]

The mRNA vaccine also needs a booster, so I don't see that that's an AZ issue particularly.

Or perhaps it just isn’t an issue at all? AZ are claiming one thing yet we’re being told another.

As it happens, I'm pretty confident that the 2 shots of AZ have given me adequate protection against death and serious illness. The booster makes it less likely for me to get some nasty cold-type symptoms and pass it on to someone more likely to have a worse reaction, which is a bonus.

I agree with your first point, the second less so. Avoiding cold-type symptoms was never the aim and if that’s where we’re heading it really will never end. As for not passing it on again I’m sceptical; the best thing people can do is stay at home if symptomatic. It’s another shifted goal post as well (and a cynical one at that).

 

[yorksrob]

Or perhaps it just isn’t an issue at all? AZ are claiming one thing yet we’re being told another.



I agree with your first point, the second less so. Avoiding cold-type symptoms was never the aim and if that’s where we’re heading it really will never end. As for not passing it on again I’m sceptical; the best thing people can do is stay at home if symptomatic. It’s another shifted goal post as well (and a cynical one at that).

I must admit, I'm not really altruistic enough to stay at home when I've got a bit of the sniffles, so anything that makes getting them - or even worse, enforced isolation, less likely, I'm up for.

 

[DustyBin]

I must admit, I'm not really altruistic enough to stay at home when I've got a bit of the sniffles, so anything that makes getting them - or even worse, enforced isolation, less likely, I'm up for.

Fair play at least you’re honest about it!

 

[yorksrob]

Fair play at least you’re honest about it!

I still think that not getting it probably makes it less likely to pass it on though.

 

[DustyBin]

I still think that not getting it probably makes it less likely to pass it on though.

Yes if you’re not infected you obviously can’t pass it on. It takes us back to the same old debate around asymptomatic transmission and the protection offered by natural immunity, the latter of which nobody wants to talk about (except Whitty the other night although he soon backtracked).

 

[yorksrob]

Yes if you’re not infected you obviously can’t pass it on. It takes us back to the same old debate around asymptomatic transmission and the protection offered by natural immunity, the latter of which nobody wants to talk about (except Whitty the other night although he soon backtracked).

Indeed, and I'm sure natural immunity contributes to protection as well. The way I look at it, it all adds to the pot.

 

[DustyBin]

Indeed, and I'm sure natural immunity contributes to protection as well. The way I look at it, it all adds to the pot.

What I don’t like is the insistence that you need antibodies to be protected. It’s basically science denial, and sets us up nicely for six monthly boosters. It’s just another element to this that doesn’t make sense to me.

 

[yorksrob]

What I don’t like is the insistence that you need antibodies to be protected. It’s basically science denial, and sets us up nicely for six monthly boosters. It’s just another element to this that doesn’t make sense to me.

I think it's more to do with this varient that passes on more quickly than we would like. I think it's more likely that once things settle down,we'll end up with regular boosters for the vulnerable.

 

[brad465]

The by- result should focus a few minds

We just have to hope Johnson doesn't try to distract from the fallout with more covid restrictions, like he did at the time of implementing Plan B.

 

[kristiang85]

We need to be wary of hospitalisation data - it appears that the definition of a hospitalisation by the UKHSA has been changed from admission within 14 days of a positive test to within 28 days of a positive test.

Given the spread of Omicron, the hospitalisation numbers presented could be huge, even if fairly inconsequential in terms of COVID.

 

[bramling]

We just have to hope Johnson doesn't try to distract from the fallout with more covid restrictions, like he did at the time of implementing Plan B.

Johnson’s fate is now sealed, and it’s quite telling Labour’s vote collapsed too, even taking into account tactical voting.

The next move will be interesting for sure. I’m not sure engineering a crisis is enough to do it for Johnson at this point.

There remains of course the big problem of who on earth replaces him. The more I see of Sunak, the less I think he’s up to the task.

What happens next will be interesting. Last night’s result was essentially a message of “stop playing silly games and get on with being a serious government”. I’m not sure Johnson is capable of doing that, and the interview that’s taking place on Sky News as I type this simply confirms this, it seems everything is all everyone else’s fault.