Russia invades Ukraine

[DynamicSpirit]

The point is not whether you actually poke the bear but whether the bear believes it is being poked.

There's not a lot you can do about a bear that chooses to believe it's being poked when it isn't - apart from make sure you have enough defences to deter said bear.

 

[yorksrob]

Really? Have you forgotten how Western public opinion supports Chechenya separatists?

Lots of people have opinions on lots of things. Unless Western states actively supported Chechnya's secession, public opinion is pretty irrelevant.

 

[DanNCL]

There are A LOT of people protesting outside of the Russian consulate in Edinburgh at the moment, including Russians who are ashamed of Putin’s actions. Great to see so many people out in support of Ukraine, and in condemnation of Russia.

 

[Scotrail12]

I see that the idiot Miles Routledge (famous for going on 'holiday' to Afghanistan and getting evacuated from there) is trying to travel to Poland and then on to Ukraine. And seemingly expects help from Britain if things go bad.

 

[Scotrail314209]

There are A LOT of people protesting outside of the Russian consulate in Edinburgh at the moment, including Russians who are ashamed of Putin’s actions. Great to see so many people out in support of Ukraine, and in condemnation of Russia.

I think the Russian people have had enough.

I was chatting to some people who I know in a communal server, two are from Russia and they felt it was their fault for not doing enough to stop Putin.

My heart goes out to the Russian people who have to live under him.

 

[najaB]

Really? Have you forgotten how Western public opinion supports Chechenya separatists?

Nine out of ten people in "the West" have probably never even heard of Chechnya.

 

[yorksrob]

I am not surprised that is their view. However, from what I gather, anything we buy from Russia would almost immediately cease if they were taken out of SWIFT and there are obviously fairly wide ranging consequences for a lot of people if that was to happen.

The current sanctions tinkering with this and that are rearranging the deckchairs. Removing Russia from the SWIFT system is more likely to go some way to giving the country the necessary economic shock.

 

[Roast Veg]

The current sanctions tinkering with this and that are rearranging the deckchairs. Removing Russia from the SWIFT system is more likely to go some way to giving the country the necessary economic shock.

The percieved harm to the European economy (resistance from Germany and Italy foremost) is really holding that one up.

 

[najaB]

The current sanctions tinkering with this and that are rearranging the deckchairs. Removing Russia from the SWIFT system is more likely to go some way to giving the country the necessary economic shock.

Yes, and no. I agree that we could go a lot harder with sanctions, but targeting those closest to Putin rather than the Russian population as whole is a wise first stage. There's always the risk with wide-ranging sanctions of playing into Putin's "the West hates Russia" narative.

As compared to targeting those who are close to Putin (the people who keep him in power) - once they start seeing their ill-gotten gains being put out of reach and their comfortable lifestyles suddenly becoming unaffordable due to a war that only Putin wanted, how long until they put their own self-interest ahead of loyalty to Vladimir?

 

[yorksrob]

Yes, and no. I agree that we could go a lot harder with sanctions, but targeting those closest to Putin rather than the Russian population as whole is a wise first stage. There's always the risk with wide-ranging sanctions of playing into Putin's "the West hates Russia" narative.

As compared to targeting those who are close to Putin (the people who keep him in power) - once they start seeing their ill-gotten gains being put out of reach and their comfortable lifestyles suddenly becoming unaffordable due to a war that only Putin wanted, how long until they put their own self-interest ahead of loyalty to Vladimir?

Normally I would agree, but there's a risk that things are moving so quickly on the ground it will be over before the more substantial sanctions take effect.

 

[adrock1976]

Polar route is a lot further. For UK - far east routes, it's only really Hong Kong, Beijing and Tokyo where there is a significant portion of Russian overflight. London to Singapore regularly goes to the south of the Ukraine, as airlines have been avoiding the airspace ever since MH17.

(from gcmap.com - plots "great circle" routes between airports)

Going via Anchorage adds a lot of distance on to those sort of routes, around 2000nm extra for a flight to Tokyo (but this is still shorter than the current longest commercial flights).

Many thanks for that.

 

[swt_passenger]

I see that the idiot Miles Routledge (famous for going on 'holiday' to Afghanistan and getting evacuated from there) is trying to travel to Poland and then on to Ukraine. And seemingly expects help from Britain if things go bad.

Beats me why he still has a passport? Aren’t they discretionary?

 

[AlterEgo]

Normally I would agree, but there's a risk that things are moving so quickly on the ground it will be over before the more substantial sanctions take effect.

The sanctions will not stop an invasion, they're there for when Moscow has full control of Ukraine and the ramping up of sanctions will (hopefully) turn Russia into a pariah state.

 

[yorksrob]

The sanctions will not stop an invasion, they're there for when Moscow has full control of Ukraine and the ramping up of sanctions will (hopefully) turn Russia into a pariah state.

I still don't see the point of waiting under the circumstances.

 

[najaB]

I still don't see the point of waiting under the circumstances.

Because acting too precipitously plays into Putin's "the West hates Russia" narrative.

 

[yorksrob]

Because acting too precipitously plays into Putin's "the West hates Russia" narrative.

I see that Russia are giving a load of old flannel about being ready for "talks with Ukraine" on neutrality. I think we'd be better imposing the hard hitting sanctions now than waiting for the Kremlin to muddy the waters by waffling on about one sided talks.

 

[Caboose Class]

A small snippet from the penultimate former US Ambassador to the then USSR Jack Matlock via the Democracy Now website

The original can be found at https://www.democracynow.org/2022/2...uy3XnHJS-rX7L0lLwbYFYDHC1euQce8bG2ToHhxAhV2Uc

Exactly the point I was making yesterday. If anyone is to blame for the present crisis in the Ukraine it is the Americans!

 

[najaB]

I see that Russia are giving a load of old flannel about being ready for "talks with Ukraine" on neutrality. I think we'd be better imposing the hard hitting sanctions now than waiting for the Kremlin to muddy the waters by waffling on about one sided talks.

I can see your logic, but IMO the Western powers are better off seeing what develops on the ground - specifically on the ground in Russia. This invasion doesn't appear to be very popular at home, so it might be counter-productive to hit the average man on the Moscow street at this stage.

Exactly the point I was making yesterday. If anyone is to blame for the present crisis in the Ukraine it is the Americans!

If by "the present crisis" you mean "the general geopolitical status of the former Soviet states on the border of Western Europe and the strain that puts on relationships with the Russian Federation" then I can agree with that.

If by "the present crisis" you mean "tanks rolling into Kyiv" then the blame lies solely with one Mr V Putin.

 

[alex397]

I see that the idiot Miles Routledge (famous for going on 'holiday' to Afghanistan and getting evacuated from there) is trying to travel to Poland and then on to Ukraine. And seemingly expects help from Britain if things go bad.

The well known YouTuber ‘Bald and Bankrupt’ has also travelled there. As excellent as he is, I find he is a bit of an idiot sometimes. I really don’t agree with some of his recent posts on Instagram either.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Nine out of ten people in "the West" have probably never even heard of Chechnya.

I most definitely fall into the remaining "one out of ten" category as I mentioned Chechnya (and the other North Caucasus states) earlier on this thread on posting # 96.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

The sanctions will not stop an invasion, they're there for when Moscow has full control of Ukraine and the ramping up of sanctions will (hopefully) turn Russia into a pariah state.

It won't its cosied up to China who will be very happy to take its oil and gas. The big losers here are Europe specifically Germany which has a lot of vested interest in supplying capital goods to Russia in exchange for gas and other commodities.

Anyhow markets are taking it in there strides that the war won't amount to more than a puppet regime in Kiev and business as usual will return, UK spot gas down a staggering 29% on yesterdays price so if it stays there the media who were projecting another grand on energy bills yesterday will be completely wrong. You never know we may also get some sense back into Western energy policy and exploit what we've got in the N.Sea and maybe Germany will realise the folly of shutting there remaining nuclear reactors down prematurely.

 

[oldman]

Because acting too precipitously plays into Putin's "the West hates Russia" narrative.

Appearing to prevaricate plays into his 'the West is disunited and soft' narrative.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Appearing to prevaricate plays into his 'the West is disunited and soft' narrative.

We are still taking their oil and gas because we've allowed the N.Sea assets to be run down in the name of climate change. I'd rather we exploit what we have when we know it will be done in a way that complies with environmental regulations as well as providing work for our countries people not Putin mates who exploit there staff and have scant regard for the environment.

 

[yorksrob]

It won't its cosied up to China who will be very happy to take its oil and gas. The big losers here are Europe specifically Germany which has a lot of vested interest in supplying capital goods to Russia in exchange for gas and other commodities.

Anyhow markets are taking it in there strides that the war won't amount to more than a puppet regime in Kiev and business as usual will return, UK spot gas down a staggering 29% on yesterdays price so if it stays there the media who were projecting another grand on energy bills yesterday will be completely wrong. You never know we may also get some sense back into Western energy policy and exploit what we've got in the N.Sea and maybe Germany will realise the folly of shutting there remaining nuclear reactors down prematurely.

Europe will have to break it's dependency on Russian fossil fuels sooner or later. Might as well be sooner.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Aeroflot were the only Russian airline that flew to the UK.

Is there any truth to the rumour that the American owners of Manchester United have terminated the sponsorship deal with Aeroflot?

 

[BananaRepublic]

….For UK - far east routes, it's only really Hong Kong, Beijing and Tokyo where there is a significant portion of Russian overflight.…..

There were a few more destinations.
Pre-COVID it was UK to Seoul, Tokyo, Osaka, Hong Kong, Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu and a couple of other Chinese cities.
Some of those services have continued to run for cargo only and recently, some have been restored for passengers, but at a much lower frequency than pre-pandemic.

 

[Darandio]

Is there any truth to the rumour that the American owners of Manchester United have terminated the sponsorship deal with Aeroflot?

Yes

United statement

The club issues an update on the partnership with Aeroflot.

www.manutd.com

“In light of events in Ukraine, we have withdrawn Aeroflot’s sponsorship rights.

“We share the concerns of our fans around the world and extend our sympathies to those affected.”

 

[Caboose Class]

Is there any truth to the rumour that the American owners of Manchester United have terminated the sponsorship deal with Aeroflot?

It's in the Manchester Evening News today.
https://www.manchestereveningnews.c...ng-aeroflot-manchester-united-russia-23216717

Manchester United have terminated their sponsorship with the Russian airline Aeroflot amid the conflict in Ukraine.

United said in a statement: “In light of events in Ukraine, we have withdrawn Aeroflot’s sponsorship rights.

“We share the concerns of our fans around the world and extend our sympathies to those affected."

United's deal with Aeroflot was due to expire this year. Aeroflot were prevented from flying to the UK this week and Russia invaded Ukraine in the early hours of Thursday morning.

 

[BananaRepublic]

Is there any truth to the rumour that the American owners of Manchester United have terminated the sponsorship deal with Aeroflot?

It’s not a rumour.
They officially announced the termination of their sponsorship deal, this morning.

 

[najaB]

Appearing to prevaricate plays into his 'the West is disunited and soft' narrative.

So the question is which narrative is more likely to prop up his support levels at home? My feeling is that "they hate us" is more helpful to him.