Cloud Strife
Established Member
- Joined
- 25 Feb 2014
- Messages
- 1,819
I don't personally think it's a wise strategy, but it's the one they're going with. Only time will tell.
I suspect I understand it. It's a very, very simple message to take into a FPTP election which is winner-take-all, and it effectively turns the election into 59 mini-referenda. With Labour and the Liberal Democrats having to fight the Tories in Scotland for the simple fact that the Tory government will be on its knees by then, it should give the SNP victory in most seats yet again.
The other thing is that by making it a vote on independence, the SNP will have a very strong hand as kingmakers post-election. Let's say that a Lab-Lib coalition is still short of the seats needed for a majority. The SNP can offer confidence and supply, as long as a second referendum is held in Autumn 2025. Do they accept or refuse? The SNP will have fought explicitly on the topic of independence, so if Lab-Lib need Scottish votes, they'll need to meet the SNP's manifesto promise.
It could backfire if the three Unionist parties form an electoral pact, but that could also be electoral suicide for Labour and the Lib Dems in Scotland with a Holyrood election looming and the SNP being able to very easily portray them as Tories in disguise. And of course, if the SNP win the most seats regardless, then they could punish a Lab-Lib minority government repeatedly.