Putin may want to play the long game, but just because there has not been much change on the maps that show the area controlled by Russia, does not mean that fighting is not taking place. And if you know where to look, there is information that large battles are being fought. With Ukraine often coming out better.
Certainly the Ukrainian forces are not going to just wait, so they will never let it become a frozen conflict.
I think the generalisation of everything will stop due to the mud season is an over simplification. The Ukrainians obviously know their territory far better than most of the commentators. So as with any war, the weather will affect operations, but I don’t think it will completely stop the fighting. And if it gets really cold, the soft ground will harden up.
In terms of the U.S.A. politics, it currently looks like the Republicans have not done anywhere near as well as they expected. And by the sounds of it, a lot of the Republicans that support Trump were not successful. We will have to wait a while for all the results to trickle in.
In votes before the elections, in the house a majority of Republicans backed the votes for military and financial support for Ukraine. Plus the Democrats have already put in place the lend lease act. Further, between now and January, the Democrats have the opportunity to pass further legislation before the newly elected representatives take up their positions.
I don’t think there will be any cracks within the West anytime soon with regards to backing Ukraine. And hopefully it will be all over by 2024, or at least there will have been very significant progress by then.
If anything, I think it’s Russia and their leadership that will becoming under far greater pressure in the future.