Poor quality passenger rail service increases demand for private car purchases

[Bletchleyite]

Likewise, cars are something that a lot of people use rather than enjoy.

I don't think most people enjoy actually driving, but they do enjoy the lifestyle a car affords them.

I have always thought terraced houses are quite a good compromise between providing relatively high density housing and a fairly leafy area to live in with suitable provision for parking.

With terraces, residents can still have a reasonable sized and somewhat private garden at the back and for larger families, additional space can be provided by adding a third or even fourth floor to the house. There would also be sufficient space for a parking space in front of each house, but probably not more.

And these are still very common, particularly in the South East. The parking is usually round the back these days, though modern ones tend to be wider and not go as far back so you can get two at the front if preferred (and you don't have the wasted second reception room that most people don't want).

I think this subject is worthy of a new thread: https://www.railforums.co.uk/thread...nable-but-people-still-want-to-buy-it.241732/

 

[gazzaa2]

Pretty much a rerun of the 60/70s, people abandoned the railways once they got a car and the railway suffered a death of a thousand cuts because of it.

Work from home is the next big thing.

But one of the big issues on trains now is overcrowding. It's not like people aren't using trains.

Leisure travel demand in particular is bigger than ever. The commuter traffic has dipped but a huge amount of the workforce are still dependent on trains to get to work.

A bigger problem is the bulk of rail investment goes into the South East and the other regions have substandard local services, or Cross Country services that don't go through London.

 

[alxndr]

My parents never used to use the train, and then moved up north, with the idea that my father would work from home 3/4 of the time and get the train back down south and lodge in a hotel for the remaining week of the month. Due to strikes and unreliability he sometimes drove down, but the hotel that's suitable for him if he drives is different to the hotel that's suitable if he gets the train. After a couple of lost hotel costs due to strikes my parents ended up getting a third vehicle—an old small camper van. Now instead of ever using the train he drives his van down and parks up in a cheap camping spot. It's unlikely he'll ever go back to using the train now unless the van breaks down irreparably.

 

[Bletchleyite]

My parents never used to use the train, and then moved up north, with the idea that my father would work from home 3/4 of the time and get the train back down south and lodge in a hotel for the remaining week of the month. Due to strikes and unreliability he sometimes drove down, but the hotel that's suitable for him if he drives is different to the hotel that's suitable if he gets the train. After a couple of lost hotel costs due to strikes my parents ended up getting a third vehicle—an old small camper van. Now instead of ever using the train he drives his van down and parks up in a cheap camping spot. It's unlikely he'll ever go back to using the train now unless the van breaks down irreparably.

I think the idea of using an old camper van for business travel is about the most niche thing I have ever read on this Forum, and I've read some pretty niche things on here.

 

[alxndr]

I think the idea of using an old camper van for business travel is about the most niche thing I have ever read on this Forum, and I've read some pretty niche things on here.

He's not the first person I've heard of doing it (I knew a few signallers who did/do in fact) but the distances involved are perhaps a little unusual at 260 miles. It works surprisingly well for him, with his productivity being higher than that of his local colleagues and suits his home life as it means someone can be at home the majority of the time in case his elderly mother has a fall. The thought of doing it myself crossed my mind at one point when wanting to move up to Scotland to be with my partner but wanting to remain employed in England for study purposes, but ultimately it didn't turn out to be worthwhile.

 

[cactustwirly]

After this mornings farce on the GWML, it would have been quicker to drive to Hillingdon then tube than take the train from Reading.

Everything was delayed by half an hour, due to reasons like trains being late from the Depot and train faults. Not as if they have had FIVE days to get all these things right.

Of course the first train was already packed 5 car that must have left hundreds behind.

Honestly makes the railway look incompetent

 

[GoneSouth]

I think the idea of using an old camper van for business travel is about the most niche thing I have ever read on this Forum, and I've read some pretty niche things on here.

It is, however I smiled reading that as I know somebody who does this as well. Maybe there’s a secret army of camper van commuters we’ve just uncovered

 

[Bletchleyite]

It is, however I smiled reading that as I know somebody who does this as well. Maybe there’s a secret army of camper van commuters we’ve just uncovered

It wouldn't surprise me if there were quite a few in the world of IT contracting, though that world has contracted a lot since IR35 made it a lot less worthwhile, with people often heading back into permanent roles, plus much more of it is remote working now.

 

[GoneSouth]

It wouldn't surprise me if there were quite a few in the world of IT contracting, though that world has contracted a lot since IR35 made it a lot less worthwhile, with people often heading back into permanent roles, plus much more of it is remote working now.

I suspect you’re right, IR35 + businesses hosting everything in AWS has shrunk that commuter traffic recently

 

[Phil56]

Once all this shenanigans is over, the railways will be running again.
With all the extra cars on the road, drivers will still be weaving around the potholes and poor surface quality for years to come.

In past times, yes maybe, but with Covid, so many are now working from home or working hybrid, that certainly the "commuter" season ticket trade may well never come back, and that's where the lion's share of revenue comes from. DS has just been "darn South" for a graduate job interview and assumed they'd want him to live down there but was surprised when they said it was a WFH role with only occasional requirements to be in the office - he was very impressed!

As for road conditions, WFH may mean less cars on the roads, as may internet shopping, so road usage may not increase as much as it may seem.

Truth is, no one knows what the future looks like. No one would have believed the societal changes led by Covid. It just shows how things can change very quickly. It would be a very dangerous assumption that train passenger numbers and busy-ness of each separate route will return to pre pandemic levels. Even if passenger numbers start to get back to higher levels, then some routes will almost certainly be busier/quieter than 3/4/5 years ago.

 

[Bletchleyite]

In past times, yes maybe, but with Covid, so many are now working from home or working hybrid, that certainly the "commuter" season ticket trade may well never come back, and that's where the lion's share of revenue comes from. DS has just been "darn South" for a graduate job interview and assumed they'd want him to live down there but was surprised when they said it was a WFH role with only occasional requirements to be in the office - he was very impressed!

While we still ask our grads to relocate to London for the first year or two there's flexibility after that. I can see why they do it - it gives you a wider pool of candidates which means you get better people, plus you may not need to pay quite as much.

I'd not be Bletchleyite now if it was the case, but I wish that had been so when I first took a grad role when most of the IT industry was SE based. My first couple of years in MK were grim and friendless, though it did get (a lot) better in time. Relocation isn't easy if you're not a super-outgoing person who makes friends easily.

 

[Phil56]

It wouldn't surprise me if there were quite a few in the world of IT contracting, though that world has contracted a lot since IR35 made it a lot less worthwhile, with people often heading back into permanent roles, plus much more of it is remote working now.

A lot of IT contractors have moved abroad to avoid IR35, some carrying on doing the same work they used to do, but now living abroad and working via a "foreign" subsidy of the same employer rather than for the UK subsidiary! I've got a couple of clients who "contract" for UK banks, one now lives in Spain, the other in Canada, both still doing exactly the same work as before but now doing it from outside the UK - they were thinking of emigrating anyway, but IR35 was the push they needed! Another client works for a firm specialising in mergers and acquisitions of a City firm, used to spend winter in her Portugal "holiday home" but has now moved there permanently to avoid IR35, again still doing the same work for the same firm, but now paid by their European branch! Not only does the UK now not get any tax/nic from them at all, they're not commuting by train anymore either, so not buying season tickets - they're just occasionally flying in/out when necessary for meetings etc (carefully keeping below the number of days of "residence" to avoid becoming UK tax resident!).

 

[Howardh]

I don't use my car as much as I should, one of the major reasons is car parking charges and, worse, parking cowboys. If I arrived at a pay car-park, with the variety (or not) of options to pay, I wouldn't know where to start without being caught out. I even panic when I enter a "2 hrs free" car park, has it read my registration on the way out?? Maybe I have a phobia about it?

So that's a big plus for rail and bus transport, no such worries!! so glad and relieved to see the rail is back to some kind of normal this week and next so I can get around again. Would like to know if, where stats exist, there are fewer cars on the road this week compared to last. Is that information available anywhere, road useage week-by-week?

 

[TPO]

When it comes to traffic congestion, there is a feeling of having some element of control because there is sometimes, maybe even frequently, the option of diverting onto another less congested road, and satnavs these days can warn drivers of congestion and calculate alternative routes. When you use public transport, almost all control over your journey is placed in the hands of other people, which in cases of severe disruption, can make one feel helpless and induce high anxiety due to the uncertainty and having to be dependant on someone else for assistance. The rail network has been trimmed down in the past to the point where in many cases, there is a primary route but little in the way of an alternative, so if the primary route becomes blocked, diverting can be difficult and very time consuming*. This contributes to the poor resiliance of at least some of the rail network and is why it can take little in the way of a perturbation to cause significant disruption.

*E.g. I remember one year the Balcombe tunnel being closed which shuts the Brighton Main Line, and there isn't a good alternative route.

This is very relevant, the information provided by both signs and navigation devices (be they phone or in-car sat-nav) is generally rather good. I drive a couple of routes regularly for work and I have worked out all the alternative routes, and when they are the best option (vs pulling in somewhere for a while). There's some surprisingly good A-road routes when you get to know them. Also, whilst a route may be no quicker than a delay, it can be very pleasant. For example- when heading from the Yorkshire area to South Wales, the sat-nav routing is M1-M42-M5-M50-M4. Depending where you are going in Wales, if the traffic on M1/M42 is heavy, routing M62/M6/M56/A483/A470 then Heads of the Valleys to west Wales or straight down the A470 to the M4 can be an option which although no faster than sitting in traffic, is mainly rather scenic and has some decent stopping places once you know where. During the summer if I'm in the big van, stops can also be made in scenic laybys. There's a few other versions of routes for that drive (which is a regular one of mine and not easy to make by rail).

I think the idea of using an old camper van for business travel is about the most niche thing I have ever read on this Forum, and I've read some pretty niche things on here.

It is, however I smiled reading that as I know somebody who does this as well. Maybe there’s a secret army of camper van commuters we’ve just uncovered

I confess that I do this, mainly between April-October when there are more camp sites open- and hotels are more expensive and often fully booked. I turned my crew-bus van (which already had a Webasto night heater in the back) into an off-grid camper complete with serious solar power, loo and cooking/washing facilities. It is very practical for working away especially the longer trips, and good planning of site visits can make it a very efficient option. I started doing it during COVID when open hotels were a rarity and a railway depot I was working with was happy for the technical contractors to tip up with camper vans/caravans and park there overnight (showers available on site). I did parts of the van fit-out in a hurry due to COVID, so this winter I have it parked up under cover so I can re-do the inside to exactly how I want it. There are some challenges with using camper vans for business (work)- the main one being insurance- I insure via a specialist who is really great (and it costs less too!).

There is a really flourishing camper van community out there and these days, vans are typically NOT your beige formica type of fit-out, often really nice. Camper commuting isn't all that rare these days- just those who do it are typically very discrete.

TPO

 

[mikeb42]

Is that information available anywhere, road useage week-by-week?

The likes of Google and Inrix (and for that matter the DfT) have this data in fine-grained bulk. However, it is commercially rather valuable. That's probably why a quick search draws a blank other than historical averages from the DfT. The commercial data was widely procured during Covid lockdowns since it was a good correlate with their effectiveness - many derived graphs were presented in the media.

Someone with requisite programming skills could probably skim some of this data from google maps, though doing so in bulk is likely a breach of Ts & Cs. Meanwhile, ad-hoc observation of routes relevant to us (mainly long distance from the SW to London/Birmingham/Manchester/Leeds/Edinburgh/Inverness) showed either no discernible difference or quicker than recent-usual running times.

This was commensurate with the actual experience of myself and colleagues: The strikes so far have had no measurable effect on hundreds of long-distance road journeys. Our hypothesis is that with rail being such a small %age of overall travel and many just WfH, holding meetings remotely or just not bothering on strike days, the effect is in the noise.

Where this probably all falls down is peak commuting into cities, particularly other than London (where the WfH opportunity and culture is now so ingrained). As this is something we never do, no anecdata is available.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I don't use my car as much as I should, one of the major reasons is car parking charges and, worse, parking cowboys. If I arrived at a pay car-park, with the variety (or not) of options to pay, I wouldn't know where to start without being caught out. I even panic when I enter a "2 hrs free" car park, has it read my registration on the way out?? Maybe I have a phobia about it?

I think you perhaps do. It's not hard to read the signs and do what they say, and if you have the PayByPhone and RingGo apps plus a bag of change to hand that covers basically everything.

 

[coppercapped]

Pretty much a rerun of the 60/70s, people abandoned the railways once they got a car and the railway suffered a death of a thousand cuts because of it.

I would suggest that it's actually a re-run of the effects of increasing car ownership after the First World War when the rise of the Austin 7 and char-a-bancs played merry hell with takings of the railways for leisure passenger travel.

The number of private cars registered for use on the road increased from 187,000 in 1920 to over 2,000,000 by 1939 which had a huge effect on the railways' receipts.

Work from home is the next big thing.

Only in those cases where the work can come to the home.

 

[mikeb42]

Camper commuting isn't all that rare these days- just those who do it are typically very discrete.

Just to add to the voices saying "Actually not that rare at all": I don't know about now and have never done it myself, but 15 years ago the fields, laybys and business park carparks of Cambridgeshire had plenty of contractors vanning it. Once you're set up I can imagine it's much preferable to making stew in your Travelodge kettle, using your Corby trouser press to heat up a Peshwari Naan or being woken nightly by amorous customers stress-testing the furniture in nearby rooms at 4am. It's also cheap.

IR35 changes caused quite a few to either commit permicide or move abroad and that plus remote working has probably shrunk this community significantly. Even so, I'm not surprised it's still out there.

 

[jayah]

RPI in July was 13.1%, NR made an offer of 5% in December for this year (whilst it's then 4% for next year arguably there's a risk that there'll be a bit more inflation next year, however either way there's a chance that it's not going to be not much difference than 13%), I don't know but an offer similar to ScotRail where they got 7.5% this year is probably enough to resolve things, even if next year was reduced to 3% (total of around 11% to 12% over 2 years).

Yes Sunday working needs fixing, however that is very different to "no job cuts in the next 24 months" which is one of the issues (as I understand it).

Now one way to resolve that last point would be to say "if passenger numbers don't reach x by a given date we will be reducing headcount by an agreed figure" there would be a range of levels based on different passenger numbers, however could include "no cuts" or even "we'd look to increase headcount" if numbers are high enough.

Many of the public would support the government over the RMT if the RMT were saying no job cuts even if rail use was 50% lower than pre Covid. However with rail use continuing to grow and already much higher than 50%, there's a risk that in 24 months the government would be looking to cut staff - even though rail use has recovered.



0% finding growth is unlikely to happen, 20% is unlikely to happen (although not impossible if the strikes were to end and the likes of TPE, XC and Avanti were to see service km's higher than 60-65%), I've never said that there shouldn't be cuts (rather that they should be considered, to ensure they don't cost the country more than not making the cuts).

As such it's a question of where do we try for growth from where we are currently (Avanti appears a good option) and where do we make cuts (LNER would be a very bad choice given passenger km's are at 97% of pre Covid levels when you compare Q1 and Q2 usage in 2022/23 to the same six months in 2019/20).



Indeed, Sunday in most service industries should be (at least for new contacts in the last 5 years, bit probably longer) considered a normal working day with at least some TOC's having a 7 day timetable (some may not, but they may need more of some services at the weekend).



The average car occupancy is around 1.5.

Just one car of 4 means that there's 8 other cars with just 1 person in.

Looking at it from a individual family perspective for every 200 mile holiday trip with all 4 from the family in the car there's going to be 1,600 miles where there's only one person in the car (say going to/from work for 1/3 of the year)

Now whilst a lot of families may use their cars with a higher person occupancy rate than the average these are offset by the many many people who spend a lot of time driving on their own. However I suspect that most would still be surprised about just how low their average occupancy rate is if they were to log it.

For instance taking two kids to school and then home is 2, however add a bit more to go to a supermarket and it's 1.75 if to the shop adds the same distance again as to the school to the overall journey.

Are any of these pay awards being disputed actually based on July RPI? In a number of these disputes people seem to be moving the goalposts around. They aren't getting RPI of course because the country cannot afford it and the railway is a long way down the list of public sector priorities.

Sunday working is definitely an issue.

No job cuts for 24 months has no business being an issue, not now and nor ever. Redundancy and restructuring is a fact of life and people need to grow up frankly. Where is the incentive to modernise and replace manual signalling with safer and more efficient computer based signalling if you have to keep paying the staff, even if there is no work? BR didn't do this.

The position on ticket offices is about 10 years behind LUL who of course got rid of them all. I don't think that is the answer for heavy rail, but there is a clearly a lot of cost adding not a lot of value, rather like the similar denial of reality over DOO.

There has been ample opportunity to resolve that issue. It's been resolved on other TOC's, it could and can be resolved on the Northern franchises

I look forward to it.

Remember the lessons of the mini budget though - shaking the magic money tree is no longer an option.

 

[johncrossley]

Just to add to the voices saying "Actually not that rare at all": I don't know about now and have never done it myself, but 15 years ago the fields, laybys and business park carparks of Cambridgeshire had plenty of contractors vanning it. Once you're set up I can imagine it's much preferable to making stew in your Travelodge kettle, using your Corby trouser press to heat up a Peshwari Naan or being woken nightly by amorous customers stress-testing the furniture in nearby rooms at 4am. It's also cheap.

IR35 changes caused quite a few to either commit permicide or move abroad and that plus remote working has probably shrunk this community significantly. Even so, I'm not surprised it's still out there.

There was a recent BBC article about people living in caravans full time because of the high cost of living in a flat or house.

Bristol's van dwellers suffer as cost of living bites

The low-cost way of life is not immune to the rising cost of items like fuel and food.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Bletchleyite]

The position on ticket offices is about 10 years behind LUL who of course got rid of them all. I don't think that is the answer for heavy rail, but there is a clearly a lot of cost adding not a lot of value, rather like the similar denial of reality over DOO.

Certainly. I can very much see the point of a ticket office at Euston, Manchester Piccadilly and the likes, but just what exactly is the point of ticket offices on Merseyrail other than maybe keeping one at each of the outer termini and Liverpool Central? None whatsoever is the answer, and as you say London Underground (a very similar sort of railway) learnt that ages ago. They mostly don't even provide a feeling of safety by there being staff on the platforms as most are very distant from them.

The railway DOES need to modernise.

 

[mikeb42]

There was a recent BBC article about people living in caravans full time because of the high cost of living in a flat or house.

Bristol's van dwellers suffer as cost of living bites

The low-cost way of life is not immune to the rising cost of items like fuel and food.

www.bbc.co.uk

To be fair, most of the Cambs contractor vanning set I'm talking about were a long way from doing it due to poverty. They would mostly have been very highly skilled tech contractors with nice houses hundreds of miles away in the north or south west who 15 years ago were earning 2023 train driver numbers. I.e. big money, 90-something'th percentile of the income distribution and above.

I'm not surprised people in Brizzle are living in caravans right now. Property prices and rents there have gone from insane to beyond insane with the influx of London escapees in recent years. However, this is getting very far off topic.

A bit more back on topic - a vehemently anti-car contractor acquaintance recently packed in his contract in Bristol thanks to GWR. Commuting to Bristol on the dreaded Portsmouth service had become such a challenge to his sanity that he decided that voluntary unemployment until he can find fully remote work was preferable. Anyone without his strong environmentalist convictions would have probably just started using the car...

 

[Master29]

You clearly weren't paying attention during the mini budget. The magic money tree has been fenced off.

If you believe that......

 

[dk1]

People seem very happy to have the trains back. Both that I've worked this morning have been full & standing too.

 

[Master29]

People seem very happy to have the trains back. Both that I've worked this morning have been full & standing too.

Precisely, and why some of this scaremongering nonsense about rail travel disappearing is just that.

 

[dk1]

Precisely, and why some of this scaremongering nonsense about rail travel disappearing is just that.

Of course. Soon forgotten as it always has been in the past.

 

[johncrossley]

Precisely, and why some of this scaremongering nonsense about rail travel disappearing is just that.

But talking up the trains is counter-productive. People should stay away from trains as much as possible. Otherwise nothing will change.

 

[ChrisC]

I don't use my car as much as I should, one of the major reasons is car parking charges and, worse, parking cowboys. If I arrived at a pay car-park, with the variety (or not) of options to pay, I wouldn't know where to start without being caught out.

I can tell you what I do but I don’t think that it will be much help! If I arrive at a car park and discover that the only way to pay is by phone or using a parking app I drive straight out and find somewhere else to park even if it means much further to walk. I have recently moved a bit with the times and will now pay car parking by card as well as cash.

 

[johncrossley]

I can tell you what I do but I don’t think that it will be much help! If I arrive at a car park and discover that the only way to pay is by phone or using a parking app I drive straight out and find somewhere else to park even if it means much further to walk. I have recently moved a bit with the times and will now pay car parking by card as well as cash.

You can often park for free and get exercise at the same time by parking far enough away from the town centre to be outside restrictions, plus you have the side effect of not having to worry about how you pay for parking. While the £2 offer is on you could walk there and get the bus back. Unless the whole town is covered by parking zones that is a way of visiting town centres without having to resort to trains.

 

[GoneSouth]

But talking up the trains is counter-productive. People should stay away from trains as much as possible. Otherwise nothing will change.

I fear you maybe campaigning for the wrong type of change!

apologies if I missed any humour