More Delay for HS2, and how should we proceed?

[kevin_roche]

To cover longer track will require more trains. Most of the above-ground stations would need to be lengthened to cope with 11-car trains. Apart from this new requirement, they seem to have been caught out by the popularity of the Elizabeth Line since it opened. It has taken a lot longer to build than expected so perhaps the opening capacity was planned too long ago. I remember hoping I would soon be able to use it when I was working in Slough. At that point the Internet had only just started to be used for advertising and e-commerce was a twinkle in the eye of the Sales Director. People's need to travel has not diminished as much as expected.

Edit,

The EL is also expected to have to cope with more traffic and for longer. Originally Euston would have taken some traffic before the number of services reached the maximum that can be turned around at OOC.

 

[Mikey C]

In the meantime plenty of work is going on concerning the London tunnel, with road closure in the Swiss Cottage and Kilburn areas relating to HS2 work.

 

[Xavi]

OOC station scheduled to be completed 2030 (this is current), so TBMs much launch from OOC box probably by end 2026 and will take 18 months to complete civils. My best guess is 2-3 years of OOC terminus.

 

[stuu]

So why are TfL publishing documents claiming the 2040s? Just mistaken? Trying to cause trouble?

 

[zwk500]

So why are TfL publishing documents claiming the 2040s? Just mistaken? Trying to cause trouble?

Because the documents before the most recent announcement said Euston to open in 2035. If it's being delayed and stretched out then 5 years delay is not unreasonable to assume.

 

[Glenn1969]

Because the documents before the most recent announcement said Euston to open in 2035. If it's being delayed and stretched out then 5 years delay is not unreasonable to assume.

If Euston is delayed by 3 years where does this leave Manchester, the North and HS3/NPR? I'm 53- will I be dead before it opens if it ever does xx?

 

[zwk500]

If Euston is delayed by 3 years where does this leave Manchester, the North and HS3/NPR? I'm 53- will I be dead before it opens if it ever does xx?

Only the minister of state for Transport can properly answer that question.

However, I'd say HS3 - forget it, it was always bonkers. NPR is a programme of measures some of which are definitely going ahead (Transpennine upgrade) and some of which can happen without major funding (service changes etc) so has a good chance of being substantively complete.
HS2 to the north - Golborne had already been dropped, not sure what provision would be made for future add-on. eventual extension to Crewe is likely but will likely also be delayed from the originally proposed 2032/33. Into Manchester I truly don't know, but the bill for this section is in the Committee stage: https://bills.parliament.uk/bills/3094

 

[MattRat]

Only the minister of state for Transport can properly answer that question.

However, I'd say HS3 - forget it, it was always bonkers. NPR is a programme of measures some of which are definitely going ahead (Transpennine upgrade) and some of which can happen without major funding (service changes etc) so has a good chance of being substantively complete.
HS2 to the north - Golborne had already been dropped, not sure what provision would be made for future add-on. eventual extension to Crewe is likely but will likely also be delayed from the originally proposed 2032/33. Into Manchester I truly don't know, but the bill for this section is in the Committee stage: https://bills.parliament.uk/bills/3094

If I'd hazard a guess, I'd say most of the responsibility for what happens up North is is their hands now, thanks to further devolution.

 

[zwk500]

If I'd hazard a guess, I'd say most of the responsibility for what happens up North is is their hands now, thanks to further devolution.

Depends where the money comes from.

 

[MattRat]

Depends where the money comes from.

Well with devolution, it doesn't have to just be from government, they can ask private businesses to help too, like with Crossrail.

 

[deltic]

Well with devolution, it doesn't have to just be from government, they can ask private businesses to help too, like with Crossrail.

Sadly Greater Manchester does not have the same revenue base as Greater London. The latter collects around £7.5bn in business rates a year compared to under £1bn in Greater Manchester.

 

[Roast Veg]

Sadly Greater Manchester does not have the same revenue base as Greater London. The latter collects around £7.5bn in business rates a year compared to under £1bn in Greater Manchester.

I'd say that's pretty good going per capita.

 

[HSTEd]

The underground stations were, the rest wasn't. Looking at it would an expansion of OOC even be possible? It looks like there are new high rise buildings right at the end of the stabling, and there isn't space for an extension to 11 cars.

So an extension to the trains would require a billion pounds on a new depot.

Yet another waste of money, and we can't even do the RER A solution without rebuilding piles of legacy infrastructure. Supposedly the Crossrail core tunnels can be cleared to the larger loading gauge required, but I expect that turns out not to be true either, so we couldn't even put AbbeyWood-OOC double decks in.

This is just a huge mess.

 

[zwk500]

So an extension to the trains would require a billion pounds on a new depot.

Yet another waste of money, and we can't even do the RER A solution without rebuilding piles of legacy infrastructure. Although the Crossrail people probably massively understated the work necessary to gauge clear the core tunnels to the larger loading gauge that is supposedly possible, so we couldn't even put AbbeyWood-OOC double decks in.

Can you have UIC platforms with legacy stock or would the stepping distance be too far, and did Connaught Tunnel get rebuilt to UIC gauge as well? Both of those together would stop the Double-decks before you even had to worry about the ease with which the platforms could be converted.

 

[HSTEd]

Can you have UIC platforms with legacy stock or would the stepping distance be too far,

My understanding is RER platforms aren't built to UIC specification, apparently the traditional height is 920mm (can't verify this from an official source at the moment but its what google says), with RER E having even higher platforms (~1200mm).

The trains certainly don't look like they are built for low level platforms.

and did Connaught Tunnel get rebuilt to UIC gauge as well?

The tunnel was pretty much dismantled and rebuilt from scratch, I'd be surprised if it has any real difference in loading gauge to the new construction.

 

[D365]

AIUI the plan was always to extend Paddington terminators to OOC, so any need for extra trains to do this hasn't been changed by recent events.

I was under the impression that the additional five 345s were to cover this requirement, plus the Terminal 5 extension.

 

[Snow1964]

I was under the impression that the additional five 345s were to cover this requirement, plus the Terminal 5 extension.

My understanding having read the TfL Board agenda and papers for this weeks meeting is mixture of reasons for extra Elizabeth line trains, but HS2 Euston being anything upto 5 years after Old Oak has potentially caused a problem.

1) The extension from Westbourne Park reversing sidings to Old Oak marginally increases mileage, on its own could be ok
2) The delay to Euston put pressure on loadings from Old Oak to Central London, ideally need couple of extra trains.
3) Still seem to be considering extra trains to Heathrow, and I suspect the move in Parliament to revive Heathrow Western link suggests some services might get routed this way in future.
4) If not ordered soon, the Adventra assembly lines at Derby might be dispanded, and then price would be lot more or extra units lot harder to get.

From memory, originally 65 trains were ordered and there were 11 (or 13?) options, but only 5 were exercised. I think the remaining fixed price options lapsed about 5 years ago.

The 345s were never designed to be extended to 10 or 11car, the extra long platform tunnels were a long term provision which wasn't expected to be used until next generation of trains in 2050s. Instead the initial expansion plan was to increase frequency to something between 24tph and 30tph. I think that is why they added some extra crossovers at Custom House, so there could be short workings at peak times through central section.

 

[PG]

The underground stations were, the rest wasn't. Looking at it would an expansion of OOC even be possible? It looks like there are new high rise buildings right at the end of the stabling, and there isn't space for an extension to 11 cars.

The 345s were never designed to be extended to 10 or 11car, the extra long platform tunnels were a long term provision which wasn't expected to be used until next generation of trains in 2050s.

Were the underground stations and OOC depot each funded by different bodies?
That might possibly explain the provision for future expansion of one but not the other?

Otherwise it looks like not very joined up planning...

 

[stuu]

So an extension to the trains would require a billion pounds on a new depot.

Yet another waste of money, and we can't even do the RER A solution without rebuilding piles of legacy infrastructure. Supposedly the Crossrail core tunnels can be cleared to the larger loading gauge required, but I expect that turns out not to be true either, so we couldn't even put AbbeyWood-OOC double decks in.

This is just a huge mess.

Someone did an FOI request years ago about future double deck trains, the reply was yes for the core.

Edited to add a link:

Making Crossrail Future Proof - a Freedom of Information request to Department for Transport

Crossrail is likely to become an integral and essential piece of London's transport infrastructure once completed, in much the same way as the RER serves Paris. The new rail tunnels under central London are expected to be used well into the next century but how much thought has been given into...

www.whatdotheyknow.com

 

[Meerkat]

Someone did an FOI request years ago about future double deck trains, the reply was yes for the core.

Can double decker trains unload/load quick enough to maintain service frequency?

 

[D365]

My understanding having read the TfL Board agenda and papers for this weeks meeting is mixture of reasons for extra Elizabeth line trains, but HS2 Euston being anything upto 5 years after Old Oak has potentially caused a problem.

1) The extension from Westbourne Park reversing sidings to Old Oak marginally increases mileage, on its own could be ok
2) The delay to Euston put pressure on loadings from Old Oak to Central London, ideally need couple of extra trains.
3) Still seem to be considering extra trains to Heathrow, and I suspect the move in Parliament to revive Heathrow Western link suggests some services might get routed this way in future.
4) If not ordered soon, the Adventra assembly lines at Derby might be dispanded, and then price would be lot more or extra units lot harder to get.

From memory, originally 65 trains were ordered and there were 11 (or 13?) options, but only 5 were exercised. I think the remaining fixed price options lapsed about 5 years ago.

The 345s were never designed to be extended to 10 or 11car, the extra long platform tunnels were a long term provision which wasn't expected to be used until next generation of trains in 2050s. Instead the initial expansion plan was to increase frequency to something between 24tph and 30tph. I think that is why they added some extra crossovers at Custom House, so there could be short workings at peak times through central section.

Thanks, that's a very useful post. Certainly the Western link would be a good reason to seek additional rolling stock contingency.

 

[zwk500]

My understanding is RER platforms aren't built to UIC specification, apparently the traditional height is 920mm (can't verify this from an official source at the moment but its what google says), with RER E having even higher platforms (~1200mm).

It's more about the distance from the rail at the platform height than the specific height itself. Platform height even under EU TSIs varies from country to country (EU generally has standardised on 550 or 720mm, but UK & Ireland have/had a different height for historic reasons). I believe crossrail is 1,100 for step-free boarding (Heathrow and HS2 are also this height IIRC).

The trains certainly don't look like they are built for low level platforms.

Those trains are much wider down to the sole bar - you can see the lower seating area is the same width as the train is at the doors. 345s are noticeably narrower below the platform height.

The tunnel was pretty much dismantled and rebuilt from scratch, I'd be surprised if it has any real difference in loading gauge to the new construction.

It wasn't dismantled. It was heavily relined and refurbed, but from the photos I've seen part of that involved spraying a concrete layer inside the existing brickwork.

 

[stuu]

Can double decker trains unload/load quick enough to maintain service frequency?

RER A is currently running 24tph, but was up to 30tph pre-covid

 

[Xavi]

If Euston is delayed by 3 years where does this leave Manchester, the North and HS3/NPR? I'm 53- will I be dead before it opens if it ever does xx?

Phase 2a paused for 2 years although work to optimise design and procurement will continue. 2b west within original timeframe.

 

[HSTEd]

Can double decker trains unload/load quick enough to maintain service frequency?

The RER A experience would be yes.

 

[swt_passenger]

It wasn't dismantled. It was heavily relined and refurbed, but from the photos I've seen part of that involved spraying a concrete layer inside the existing brickwork.

[Connaught tunnel]
I think the only significant rebuilding was the ‘underwater’ section immediately beneath the dock entrance, that was not the same clearance as the ramped sections either side due to some previous changes. I remember seeing it in a documentary.

 

[MattRat]

My understanding having read the TfL Board agenda and papers for this weeks meeting is mixture of reasons for extra Elizabeth line trains, but HS2 Euston being anything upto 5 years after Old Oak has potentially caused a problem.

1) The extension from Westbourne Park reversing sidings to Old Oak marginally increases mileage, on its own could be ok
2) The delay to Euston put pressure on loadings from Old Oak to Central London, ideally need couple of extra trains.
3) Still seem to be considering extra trains to Heathrow, and I suspect the move in Parliament to revive Heathrow Western link suggests some services might get routed this way in future.
4) If not ordered soon, the Adventra assembly lines at Derby might be dispanded, and then price would be lot more or extra units lot harder to get.

But it does sound like capacity can be made using more trains at least, especially with the western link.

At the very least I can see TFL trying to clean up the government's mess as best they can. Good to know some people are actually competent, even if we still need more competent people.

 

[AndrewE]

Can you have UIC platforms with legacy stock or would the stepping distance be too far, and did Connaught Tunnel get rebuilt to UIC gauge as well? Both of those together would stop the Double-decks before you even had to worry about the ease with which the platforms could be converted.

You can have a set of points at the platform approach which puts wider stock down a sort-of gauntletted loop slightly further from the platform. This came up when we were discussing HS2 /NPR and normal rolling stock using the same platforms at Manchester Picc. (Maybe in the context of a speculative through sub-surface station used by both types of trains.)
Apparently it has already been done somewhere "sur le continong".

 

[fishwomp]

Michael Gove: I can’t guarantee HS2 will ever reach Euston

Levelling Up Secretary Michael Gove says “I don’t know what the final decision will be on where the terminus is”, as concerns grow over the HS2 high speed rail project between London and Birmingham. .

www.google.com

Gove today saying that whether it goes to OOC or Euston is up for debate..

"Levelling Up Secretary Michael Gove says “I don’t know what the final decision will be on where the terminus is”, as concerns grow over the HS2 high speed rail project between London and Birmingham. ."

 

[JonathanH]

Gove today saying that whether it goes to OOC or Euston is up for debate..

Surely a final decision is only taken when the Euston site gets used for something else. Question is what value could be achieved for the site if it were to be sold by HS2.

His points seemed to be that HS2 is more likely to reach Manchester than Euston, all infrastructure projects go over budget and Old Oak Common is a great place to have a regeneration focus.