More Delay for HS2, and how should we proceed?

[AlbertBeale]

Surely a final decision is only taken when the Euston site gets used for something else. Question is what value could be achieved for the site if it were to be sold by HS2.

His points seemed to be that HS2 is more likely to reach Manchester than Euston, all infrastructure projects go over budget and Old Oak Common is a great place to have a regeneration focus.

I realise that the business case for HS2 relies on it being a real estate company as well as a railway company ... but if HS2 sold off all that land at Euston at some stage, then much of the value should accrue to the people who've lost their homes and jobs to make way for it, and the people who're experiencing years (if not decades) of blight and absolutely horrible living conditions because of the being alongside the works.

 

[Class 170101]

Can double decker trains unload/load quick enough to maintain service frequency?

The RER A experience would be yes.

I wouldn't be so sure. Would there be sufficient standback areas by doors to remove and add people quickly plus some would standing on stairs and the upper deck? We have already seen GA removing seats in Class 720s to create bigger standback areas.

Could the stations cope with extra custom in adding people to trains and removing people getting off between one train departing and the next train arriving or could it still be crowded with people from previous trains not yet clearing out? Conversely the second train not being as well loaded as the first as people can't get to it because crowding issues?

 

[Class 170101]

Watch: Levelling Up Secretary
@MichaelGove
refuses to guarantee that HS2 will ever reach Euston and central London

https://twitter.com/Channel4/status/1639967941079838721

This afternoon's Andrew Neil Show

 

[Mikey C]

Surely a final decision is only taken when the Euston site gets used for something else. Question is what value could be achieved for the site if it were to be sold by HS2.

His points seemed to be that HS2 is more likely to reach Manchester than Euston, all infrastructure projects go over budget and Old Oak Common is a great place to have a regeneration focus.

To me that's a "political" answer, as in reality HS2 WILL reach Euston, but saying that without giving the same certainly over HS2 reaching Manchester would sound bad from the Levelling Up Minister.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

I realise that the business case for HS2 relies on it being a real estate company as well as a railway company ... but if HS2 sold off all that land at Euston at some stage, then much of the value should accrue to the people who've lost their homes and jobs to make way for it, and the people who're experiencing years (if not decades) of blight and absolutely horrible living conditions because of the being alongside the works.

HS2 business case doesn't rely upon it being a real estate company its predicated on it generating wider societal economic benefits. At Euston there was to be an opportunity for an oversite development that would have part funded the new station. Probably the better solution now would be to build a functional station not a status symbol and allow an oversite development across both sides of Euston station.

 

[MattRat]

Michael Gove: I can’t guarantee HS2 will ever reach Euston

Levelling Up Secretary Michael Gove says “I don’t know what the final decision will be on where the terminus is”, as concerns grow over the HS2 high speed rail project between London and Birmingham. .

www.google.com

Gove today saying that whether it goes to OOC or Euston is up for debate..

Probably depends on cost. Is it cheaper to build Euston station, or to increase Crossrail capacity.

 

[JonathanH]

Probably depends on cost. Is it cheaper to build Euston station, or to increase Crossrail capacity.

Cheaper to do neither.

 

[MattRat]

Cheaper to do neither.

Yeah but they need to do one. Unless they'd like to make international news for the ensuing catastrophe.

 

[HSTEd]

I wouldn't be so sure. Would there be sufficient standback areas by doors to remove and add people quickly plus some would standing on stairs and the upper deck? We have already seen GA removing seats in Class 720s to create bigger standback areas.

Well I assume the MI2N and MI09 stock used on the RER is capable of this, since we can see in use every day!

Could the stations cope with extra custom in adding people to trains and removing people getting off between one train departing and the next train arriving or could it still be crowded with people from previous trains not yet clearing out? Conversely the second train not being as well loaded as the first as people can't get to it because crowding issues?

Well the stations are supposedly designed to cope with significantly higher service densities than are currently projected, and they are pretty far from small. The station structures are absolutely huge.

In a slightly more on topic discussion, NAO now believes price of Euston has doubled to £4.8bn and it is likely that delays will drive the cost even higher.

The cost of HS2’s revised and postponed London Euston terminus has almost doubled to £4.8bn since 2020, according to the the public spending watchdog, with millions wasted on botched decisions.

The government announced last month that work on the high-speed line’s central London station would be paused. But the National Audit Office warned on Monday that the move would “lead to additional costs and potentially higher costs overall”.

AUTOMERGED:

HS2 business case doesn't rely upon it being a real estate company its predicated on it generating wider societal economic benefits. At Euston there was to be an opportunity for an oversite development that would have part funded the new station. Probably the better solution now would be to build a functional station not a status symbol and allow an oversite development across both sides of Euston station.

At the moment the problem seems to be that noone really has a workable design that they are willing to pay for.
The previous design was scrapped several years ago and the new one has a ballooning cost, which, it appears, is what caused the halt in construction work.

 

[daodao]

Completion of a London Euston terminal station is key to the long-term success of the HS2 project. An excessive delay would be bad, but failure to complete it all would be disastrous. Passengers wishing to travel anywhere in Greater London not served from OOC directly by Cross-Rail, or who wish to travel to anywhere in Southern England served from key London stations at Victoria, Waterloo or London Bridge, would require 2 changes of train. If anything has to be chopped from the current plans, surely it should be the Manchester-Crewe leg, which will see relatively little use and for which construction work has not yet started.

 

[Parjon]

Pretty clear that no one at HS2 has any control on costs, and a single station costing £2.5bn, let alone £5bn, is pathetic. What is it made of and who gave the OK for that level of platinum plating?

It would have boosted public confidence in democracy no end had the government pulled the plug a while back. I assume they won't grasp the mettle now.

Euston is a prime place for a monument to their and HS2's enduring incompetence. Looks like it will get one.

 

[Xavi]

The previous design was scrapped several years ago and the new one has a ballooning cost, which, it appears, is what caused the halt in construction work.

The delay is cash flow related and solely down to Treasury refusing to recognise inflation (over 28% since the HS2 2019 prices). Treasury works and thinks in cash terms.

 

[Parjon]

HS2 business case doesn't rely upon it being a real estate company its predicated on it generating wider societal economic benefits.

Interesting. (Prior to local discovery that in fact our figures did add up after all) When we in the Liverpool City Region highlighted wider societal benefits of being included, and indeed the wider societal harms to us of needless economic extraction from being excluded, we were told this didn't count.

If our proposed budget portion "couldn't wash its own face" then we would just have to live with the destabilising effects.

Hey presto, while we could have helped with the project's financial acne it turns out that HS2 can't "wash its own face". But that's A-OK.

I struggle to come up with a description for the people who have gaslit us over the years without including the word "dishonest".

 

[JonathanH]

Yeah but they need to do one. Unless they'd like to make international news for the ensuing catastrophe.

Catastrophe is a strong word.

Have you done any passenger modelling to prove that not building Euston and the existing plans for Old Oak Common's Elizabeth Line services are insufficient? It isn't going to make international news.

The Crossrail capacity introduced by running the extra 12tph to Old Oak Common with 1500 passengers on each of those trains is 18000 passengers. That is more than enough to move the passengers using HS2.

 

[domcoop7]

Interesting. (Prior to local discovery that in fact our figures did add up after all) When we in the Liverpool City Region highlighted wider societal benefits of being included, and indeed the wider societal harms to us of needless economic extraction from being excluded, we were told this didn't count.

If our proposed budget portion "couldn't wash its own face" then we would just have to live with the destabilising effects.

Hey presto, while we could have helped with the project's financial acne it turns out that HS2 can't "wash its own face". But that's A-OK.

I struggle to come up with a description for the people who have gaslit us over the years without including the word "dishonest".

Who told you that Liverpool City Region wasn't included in HS2? I presume you refer to Steve Rotheram's wish to rebuild an underground Liverpool Lime Street terminus for no reason other than to say "Manchester's got one so we have one too"? Or was there something else?

In any event, when I lived in St Helens, the way to get a fast train to London would not be to go backwards to Liverpool City Centre, but to go to Runcorn or Warrington - the best part of an hour less travelling depending on time of day.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Pretty clear that no one at HS2 has any control on costs, and a single station costing £2.5bn, let alone £5bn, is pathetic. What is it made of and who gave the OK for that level of platinum plating?

Indeed despite its absolutely stuffed full of well paid consultants from the large construction commercial quantity surveying firms as well as the project management entities. Its already expended £548m according to the NAO report of which less than £100m has gone on real work preparing the site for teh new station construction the rest is largely abortive expenditure. NR aren't the most cost effective either in large projects but that £400m would have gone a long way in progressing electrification down the MML.

It would have boosted public confidence in democracy no end had the government pulled the plug a while back. I assume they won't grasp the mettle now.

Post covid it was clearly not as urgent to push the go button but it was a BoJo vanity project and is too far committed now to back out of phase 1 and better they maximise funding available to allow the contractors to construct it as fast as possible so it can start earning revenue.

Euston is a prime place for a monument to their and HS2's enduring incompetence. Looks like it will get one.

What it needs is a station as simple as it 1960's sister that can accept oversite development not some attempt to win architecture construction awards people want functionally reliable public transport.

 

[matacaster]

Yeah but they need to do one. Unless they'd like to make international news for the ensuindg catastrophe.

Hang on, how many EXTRA seats did crossrail provide? The high crossrail usage is, I suspect, displacement from normal tube. Some of these people can be 'encouraged' to go back to tube. Compared to the rest of country London is pampered.

 

[jfowkes]

Post covid it was clearly not as urgent to push the go button but it was a BoJo vanity project and is too far committed now to back out of phase 1 and better they maximise funding available to allow the contractors to construct it as fast as possible so it can start earning revenue.

Amazing that a "Bojo vanity project" was mooted under Labour, started serious planning in 2009, go-ahead announced in 2012, and the hybrid bill received assent in 2017 - a full 2 years before he became PM. The guy must have been secretly laying the groundwork for his vanity project for a full decade.

 

[snowball]

The NAO report on HS2 Euston, mentioned in #849, is here.

In January 2020 we reported that the work at Euston was more complex than DfT had originally anticipated and that there was uncertainty over the HS2 station design. The design at that time was for 11 platforms to be built in two stages. Government commissioned the Oakervee Review (the Review), which published in February 2020 and concluded that the HS2 Euston station design and approach were not satisfactory: it added unnecessary cost, did not meet stakeholders’ ambitions and there was limited joined-up thinking between work on the HS2 station and the Network Rail station.

Scope of the report

Following the changes to the HS2 Euston station since we last reported in January 2020, this report assesses whether DfT and HS2 Ltd are now set up toeffectively manage the risks to value for money at Euston station. We examine:

whether DfT and HS2 Ltd have addressed the issues identified in early 2020 relating to the scope of the HS2 Euston station design and whether they are managing to stay within budget
what steps DfT has taken to improve its governance and integration arrangements across the three projects within the wider Euston programme and whether appropriate delivery arrangements are now in place to achieve value for money

We do not examine progress on the rest of the HS2 programme or undertake a detailed examination of the other two projects at the Euston site. The fieldwork for this report was completed ahead of the decisions by DfT and HS2 Ltd in March 2023 on how to manage wider inflationary cost pressures. We have not examined the steps taken by HS2 Ltd and DfT to manage affordability on the wider HS2 programme and its impact on the Euston station project. All costs are in 2019 prices unless otherwise indicated.

Conclusions

DfT’s and HS2 Ltd’s attempt to reset the programme since 2020 has not succeeded and further action is now required to develop an affordable and viable station. DfT and HS2 Ltd have been working to reach an affordable solution since 2015, but this highly complex project continues to present significant challenges. While it was necessary to look again at the design and costs of the station in 2020, the budget for Euston station was fixed too early and too low for what was intended to be achieved. DfT and HS2 Ltd have made efforts to reduce costs and improve governance. However, they have not been able to develop an affordable scope that is integrated with other activity at Euston and a further reset is required.

The changes DfT has announced to the HS2 programme provide the time that may allow it and HS2 Ltd to move the Euston project forward on a more stable footing. However, the deferral of spending to manage inflationary pressures will lead to additional costs and potentially to higher spend overall for the project that will need to be managed closely. A successful reset will need DfT and HS2 Ltd to have a clear understanding of the costs, risks and benefits of their chosen design for the HS2 station within the wider Euston programme, supported by a realistic budget, clear and effective governance and integration arrangements, and long-term certainty on the scope of the project. DfT and HS2 Ltd cannot yet demonstrate that the conditions are in place to secure value for money.

 

[HSTEd]

Amazing that a "Bojo vanity project" was mooted under Labour, started serious planning in 2009, go-ahead announced in 2012, and the hybrid bill received assent in 2017 - a full 2 years before he became PM. The guy must have been secretly laying the groundwork for his vanity project for a full decade.

Well a cynic might suggest HS2 appeared just when Labour realised it was definitely going to lose the next election.

Can't really blame it on bojo though

 

[Fazaar1889]

The NAO report on HS2 Euston, mentioned in #849, is here.

the work at Euston was more complex than DfT had originally anticipated

Is there a reason for this? I'm not entirely sure why it's more complex. Are there perhaps more pipes and tunnels and ancient titbits than they had expected?

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Well a cynic might suggest HS2 appeared just when Labour realised it was definitely going to lose the next election.

Can't really blame it on bojo though

He was the one that authorised construction to commence though

 

[Dave_Cardboard]

Surely a final decision is only taken when the Euston site gets used for something else. Question is what value could be achieved for the site if it were to be sold by HS2.

The CPO'd land could not be sold off or used for some other purpose - The Crichel Down rules basically mean the land has to be offered back to the original owners first if it becomes surplus to requirements. The rules are there to prevent a Govt. acquiring some land ostensible for some "nice" purpose say, building a children's playground, then "changing it's mind" and turning it into something "nasty" like a land fill or flogging it off to mates or a developer.

 

[76020]

We will have a General Election before the end of January 2025 which is now less than two years away, at present it looks like we will have a Labour Party in charge. I am not saying that they will magic up the missing Billions to get HS2 into London earlier than 2041 which is currently being muted by the Conservatives, but a change of party will obviously have a effect. I am not pro Labour but they did get HS1 built after years of dithering by the the Tory's, so lets see what happens. Also inflation seems to be one the main reasons that costs are going through the roof and hopefully it will drop significantly in the coming months which will be good news for everybody.
I personally think HS2 will become a white elephant if it only gets as far south as Old Oak Common, people will not want to change onto the Elizabeth Line and change again at Old Oak Common, perhaps with baggage as well, even though all will be step free, it could be a nightmare. I am assuming that once HS2 is up and running there will be no more Intercity Trains from London Euston to Birmingham New Street, even if the starting point is Old Oak Common for HS2, so I guess if you time it right you could probably get from London to Birmingham using Marylebone to Birmingham (Moor Street) in round about the same time than using The Elizabeth Line to Oak Common from Central London and then having to wait for a HS2 train to Birmingham (Curzon Street).

 

[Dave_Cardboard]

Is there a reason for this? I'm not entirely sure why it's more complex. Are there perhaps more pipes and tunnels and ancient titbits than they had expected?

One wonders whether the additional "complexity" is about what NR, the Mayors, Camden Council et al want to do with the rest of the site..?

 

[JonathanH]

I am assuming that once HS2 is up and running there will be no more Intercity Trains from London Euston to Birmingham New Street, even if the starting point is Old Oak Common for HS2

That isn't the right assumption, as otherwise Coventry and Wolverhampton wouldn't retain a fast service to London. The working assumption was two 'Intercity' trains from Euston to New Street calling at Watford, Milton Keynes, Rugby, Coventry and International, one continuing to Scotland.

 

[12LDA28C]

Amazing that a "Bojo vanity project" was mooted under Labour, started serious planning in 2009, go-ahead announced in 2012, and the hybrid bill received assent in 2017 - a full 2 years before he became PM. The guy must have been secretly laying the groundwork for his vanity project for a full decade.

Indeed. If I had a pound for every time I saw 'vanity project' or 'white elephant' quoted about HS2 I could afford to pay for the whole project myself.

 

[DC1989]

Somehow you always knew that 'levelling up' actually meant 'levelling down' London

 

[stuu]

I personally think HS2 will become a white elephant if it only gets as far south as Old Oak Common, people will not want to change onto the Elizabeth Line and change again at Old Oak Common, perhaps with baggage as well, even though all will be step free, it could be a nightmare. I am assuming that once HS2 is up and running there will be no more Intercity Trains from London Euston to Birmingham New Street, even if the starting point is Old Oak Common for HS2, so I guess if you time it right you could probably get from London to Birmingham using Marylebone to Birmingham (Moor Street) in round about the same time than using The Elizabeth Line to Oak Common from Central London and then having to wait for a HS2 train to Birmingham (Curzon Street).

No. You couldn't. OOC will be about 9 minutes from Tottenham Court Road. Add 10 minutes for changing trains, and 42 minutes for the journey, and you are in Birmingham in just over an hour

 

[matacaster]

Somehow you always knew that 'levelling up' actually meant 'levelling down' London

That is likely, but is because money for infrastructure is usually spent on London and any peppercorn left is distributed to the regions. Look at the quality and money spent on London stations and compare it to Leeds or Bradford etc. Londoners moan about 3 minute headways and seemingly have an inability to wait longer or for the next train. Travel between Sheffield and Huddersfield on the direct route over penistone, it's hourly -These are reasonably sized places.