UK rail lines that are the most profitable / have the best business case ratio to be electrified

[Trainbike46]

But do remember that the "cost" term in BCR calculations is the full initial investment of the project reduced by the income over the lifetime of the project, such as increased ticket sales or reduced maintenance costs. (This is with all cashflows discounted over time).

In the commercial world, only projects that had a negative "cost" would ever get done, as here the future income streams would exceed the up-front investment cost.

Public investments are assessed on whether the public benefits (such as time savings) exceed the calculated "cost" of the project. Sometimes they have to invent "Wider Economic Impacts" too, like they did on HS2, to justify a scheme that is never going to make a financial return.

Wider Economic Impacts, aren't an invention, but a legitimate part of a business case. If you didn't include societal benefits, including wider economic impacts, no roads would ever be built (as their BCR would be below zero by definition, as there is no ticket income for roads).

 

[Snow1964]

I think Bristol area is a very strong case, especially with most local trains already 31-35 years old.

From Filton / Parkway to Bristol
Back to Chippenham (via Bath)
Then Bathampton to Frome
Westbury - Salisbury - Redbridge. (Allows Cardiff-Portsmouth to be electric throughout)

Would then add lines to Weston Super Mare, Yate, possibly Avonmouth, Portishead, and Yate onwards towards Gloucester.

No advantage in continuing to Taunton, or northwards towards Bromsgrove unless XC has bi-modes (and from memory there are some unwired tracks Bromsgrove-Kings Norton, which would need adding)

The section through Bath sees 4 or 5 trains each way many hours, sometimes 7 an hour including freight. If the economics of that don't work then there Is big economic problem

 

[SteveM70]

Two related questions if I may.

1 - taking the OP’s question literally - is any unelectrified line currently “profitable” by any reasonable measure?

2 - what happens to access charges when a line is electrified? Are they increased to reflect the additional utility that has been provided to the TOC(s)?

 

[Nottingham59]

Wider Economic Impacts, aren't an invention

Like the impact on the economy of Leeds, amongst other places, that was used to justify the decision to proceed with HS2 Phase 1?

 

[zwk500]

Two related questions if I may.

1 - taking the OP’s question literally - is any unelectrified line currently “profitable” by any reasonable measure?

OP has since amended to ask which has the best business case/BCR

2 - what happens to access charges when a line is electrified? Are they increased to reflect the additional utility that has been provided to the TOC(s)?

Electrics and Diesel are billed on separate rates - AFAIK a diesel doesn't get charged more for running under the wires (although it's an interesting idea but for a different thread), as the charges are based (loosely) on Axle weight. An electric is charged for the power as well, with the option of an estimated rate or using on-train metering to get the actual usage only.

 

[mike57]

I'd say Selby to Hull!

If you also did Micklefield to Selby and Selby to Temple Hirst then I agree. You have TPE services to Manchester, Hull Trains & LNER to London and Northern Hull York services which would all benefit.

 

[eldomtom2]

And the traffic level on the Fishguard line also means its madness to electrify it when you have bimodes anyway.

Diesel bimodes should be treated as a temporary solution.

 

[zwk500]

Diesel bimodes should be treated as a temporary solution.

And will be replaced with Battery trains or other fuels. Either way I don't see wires ever being justifiable west of Swansea.

 

[SteveM70]

Electrics and Diesel are billed on separate rates - AFAIK a diesel doesn't get charged more for running under the wires (although it's an interesting idea but for a different thread), as the charges are based (loosely) on Axle weight. An electric is charged for the power as well, with the option of an estimated rate or using on-train metering to get the actual usage only.

That’s interesting (if a little off topic, but please indulge me). So at face value Network Rail pay to electrify a line, the incumbent TOC can potentially offer an enhanced (faster, greener, quieter) service and perhaps increase revenue, and their costs go down because the electric train is lighter and therefore cheaper to run and incurs lower access charges. Is that right or am I missing something?

 

[zwk500]

That’s interesting (if a little off topic, but please indulge me). So at face value Network Rail pay to electrify a line, the incumbent TOC can potentially offer an enhanced (faster, greener, quieter) service and perhaps increase revenue, and their costs go down because the electric train is lighter and therefore cheaper to run and incurs lower access charges. Is that right or am I missing something?

They do have to buy the electricity from NR as well!
Also, the idea of electrification is that it allows more trains to run through the increased capacity thereby making NR more money.
The differences in charges are not major and are on the public NR website

 

[Nottingham59]

am I missing something?

The other factor is that the investment spending by NR is added to the value of its regulated asset base (RAB), which ORR uses to calculate what return NR is allowed to earn from its assets. Or at least that was the position in the past (I think). It may be different now.

 

[YourMum666]

Another justifiable route is the Edinburgh - Aberdeen line

 

[snowball]

The other factor is that the investment spending by NR is added to the value of its regulated asset base (RAB), which ORR uses to calculate what return NR is allowed to earn from its assets. Or at least that was the position in the past (I think). It may be different now.

Didn't that end a few years ago when the auditor declared NR a government body?

Edit: no. I shouldn't post about subjects I don't understand, such as finance.

From NR's Report and Accounts 2021:

The group accounts for the rail network as a single asset carried in the Balance Sheet at its fair value. In the absence of an
active market, fair value is estimated using the discounted cash flows associated with the asset.
As explained in Note 12 to the financial statements, the group continues to use the Regulated Asset Base (‘RAB’) as the
starting point for its discounted cash flow valuation of the railway network. This is on the basis that a private owner of the
railway network asset would have its revenue requirement determined using the building block model of regulation.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

And will be replaced with Battery trains or other fuels. Either way I don't see wires ever being justifiable west of Swansea.

Not even to Milford Haven?

 

[zwk500]

Not even to Milford Haven?

Not until Chilterns, Manchester, Bristol, Birmingham, and South/West Yorks suburbans have been done.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

Not until Chilterns, Manchester, Bristol, Birmingham, and South/West Yorks suburbans have been done.

Oh heck yes- I totally agree they come well before extending beyond Swansea in the priority hierarchy.

 

[deltic]

Manchester-Sheffield doesn't address Sheffield-Nottingham lacking wires (and the existing MML isn't going to cover that).

MML was included in my original list

 

[Trainbike46]

MML was included in my original list

Which of the two Sheffield-Nottingham routes are we talking about? Via Derby or via Ilkeston?

The first is supposed to be included in the MML I think, the second certainly is not at present

 

[FlyingPotato]

There's been talk about the line to Exeter being fully electrified, while I want that, it won't happen for a while,

At the very least in the short term, the line should be electrified as far as Bedwyn or possibly Westbury. You could restore Bedwyns London service using a 387, and you would be freeing up a turbo as well. You could even extend the Newbury stopper to Bedwyn. Which gives Hungerford and Bedwyn good connections to Green Park, Arlington business park and more for jobs.
Another benefit is that well the Penzance services run for longer under electricity of course

 

[rapmastaj]

Bristol both ways means electrifying both routes from london to Bristol TM, so both via Bath and via Bristol Parkway. Of course the distance left to do for that second route isn't that long!

Thanks yes that's what I meant. And once you're finished you could continue on the Bristol suburban lines like Severn Beach, Westbury and so on.

I doubt there is that much resource to be able to do that.

The key is political will. Where the will exists, resources will be found. Such as for HS2, for the 'largest ever' road building programme they are still intent on pursuing, or for the rolling programme of electrification in Scotland.

And the political will for electrification certainly doesn't exist in England right now, but given the urgent need for decarbonisation, hopefully it will exist in future.

 

[YourMum666]

There's been talk about the line to Exeter being fully electrified, while I want that, it won't happen for a while,

At the very least in the short term, the line should be electrified as far as Bedwyn or possibly Westbury. You could restore Bedwyns London service using a 387, and you would be freeing up a turbo as well. You could even extend the Newbury stopper to Bedwyn. Which gives Hungerford and Bedwyn good connections to Green Park, Arlington business park and more for jobs.
Another benefit is that well the Penzance services run for longer under electricity of course

Exeter will happen at some point, but via Bristol most likely as bristol is a very strong candidate for electrification so maybe bristol to exeter could get wires if exeter gets remodelled as exeter is in need of resignalling and remodelling

 

[RobShipway]

Any routes to be electrified need to be those that are probably going to be more beneficial to freight more so than passenger trains which is why I think that Reading West to Basingstoke should be at the top of the list and perhaps having OHLE installed between Basingstoke and Southampton docks.

 

[zwk500]

Any routes to be electrified need to be those that are probably going to be more beneficial to freight more so than passenger trains which is why I think that Reading West to Basingstoke should be at the top of the list and perhaps having OHLE installed between Basingstoke and Southampton docks.

See the future of third rail thread for the difficulty of converting this section, but more importantly which freights would be able to switch to electric from this project? There's no wires at Acton bank, nor north of Didcot, nor between Readin and Basingstoke.
You also would need either moveable OLE or some last mile solution for the overhead loading of containers (or very tall OLE and Reach stackers)

 

[mike57]

and perhaps having OHLE installed between Basingstoke and Southampton docks.

I think there are problems mixing DC and AC on the same lines, and I cant see the whole SWML 3rd rail being converted. What is wrong with a 'son of Class 92' which will run on 750v 3rd rail and 25kV OH. The case for converting lines from 3rd rail to 25kv must be much weaker than electrification of diesel routes. The new loco class should probably have a battery as well for last mile capability, or just stick with the class 88 approach and fit a small diesel engine for use in yards, sidings and short runs away from electric. I know everyone seems to think diesel is dead, but to me it still has a place for this type of operation, and if the main freight route is electrified then the emmisions contribution from using diesel to complete the journey at either end must be miniscule.

A further question, west of Castlefield, towards Trafford Park there appears to be a much simplified OHL structure, which is little more than a trolley wire. What are the speed and power limits of this slimmed down approach, and is it cheaper to deliver (as in enough to make it worth a compromise in other ways) This approach could be applied to the Windermere Branch for example.

To me until MML, Transpennine and West country routes are finished we shouldn't be starting any new projects, and realistically even with political will this is well over 10 years away. Investing money in removing diesel from something like the Far North Line at 8 trains per day each way when you still have 6 trains per hour on diesel over the Transpennine route makes no sense.

 

[tbtc]

I think we should forget about any lines with just an hourly service (or worse!), whilst we still have so many lines with four or more diesel trains per hour

Focus on doing big stations and the immediate urban areas. Yes, it’ll cost a lot per mile (given the disruption to existing services, the complicated point work etc) compared to single track/ rural lines, but reliable bi-more trains on short/middle distance services would be a game changer , massively improving the environment at major stations and the level of air pollution in areas where people will most notice it

Also, focus on the first few miles of current unelectrified lines out of electrified stations, e.g. Leeds to Woodlesford/ Headingley or Horsforth plus bi-mode stock would remove diesel fumes from Leeds station and hopefully speed up the acceleration of trains at that bottleneck, without the need to wire the entire routes beyond

I think Bristol area is a very strong case, especially with most local trains already 31-35 years old.

From Filton / Parkway to Bristol
Back to Chippenham (via Bath)
Then Bathampton to Frome
Westbury - Salisbury - Redbridge. (Allows Cardiff-Portsmouth to be electric throughout)

Would then add lines to Weston Super Mare, Yate, possibly Avonmouth, Portishead, and Yate onwards towards Gloucester

Unless we embrace bi-modes properly, you’d have to ensure that you didn’t left any awkward gaps or “diesel islands“ - so if you were focused in that region then I’d want to see rites like the full “Salisbury Six” included (despite bits only getting an hourly service)…

…But that’s the problem. You have to consider the merits of filling in various minor gaps/ infrequent routes because otherwise you’re leaving some awkward “diesel islands” that may require a diesel microfleet (again, unless we embrace bi-modes)

The section through Bath sees 4 or 5 trains each way many hours, sometimes 7 an hour including freight. If the economics of that don't work then there Is big economic problem

That seems a great place to start IMHO

1 - taking the OP’s question literally - is any unelectrified line currently “profitable” by any reasonable measure?

Impossible for someone like me to “know” (given lack of access to data) but “profitable” routes tend to require at least five/six carriages per service (if XC’s busy Voyagers still needed subsidising), the few franchises that were “profitable” (If you ignore the subsidies to Network Rail) were those that had a longer average train length

Whilst there are some unelectrified bits of line with several services per hour (Sheffield to Meadowhall!), these generally have relatively short trains making up a good chunk of services, so may not be profitable under any definition

 

[The Planner]

Thanks yes that's what I meant. And once you're finished you could continue on the Bristol suburban lines like Severn Beach, Westbury and so on.


The key is political will. Where the will exists, resources will be found. Such as for HS2, for the 'largest ever' road building programme they are still intent on pursuing, or for the rolling programme of electrification in Scotland.

And the political will for electrification certainly doesn't exist in England right now, but given the urgent need for decarbonisation, hopefully it will exist in future.

Where from? HS2 is sucking up most of the construction material demand as it is. Political will can't magic it up if it doesn't exist.

 

[zwk500]

What is wrong with a 'son of Class 92' which will run on 750v 3rd rail and 25kV OH.

Nothing's wrong with it, apart from the relative lack of utility. I'd just fit big batteries to a 25KV loco. Also you'd potentially need to do some serious work to the 750V system to cope with electric freight power draw.

I know everyone seems to think diesel is dead, but to me it still has a place for this type of operation, and if the main freight route is electrified then the emmisions contribution from using diesel to complete the journey at either end must be miniscule.

The emissions are minimal, but batteries are quickly displacing diesel for last-mile.

A further question, west of Castlefield, towards Trafford Park there appears to be a much simplified OHL structure, which is little more than a trolley wire. What are the speed and power limits of this slimmed down approach, and is it cheaper to deliver (as in enough to make it worth a compromise in other ways) This approach could be applied to the Windermere Branch for example.

It is cheaper to deliver but it's very speed limited (it's also used from Wolverhampton to Oxley Depot). I don't know the exact limits, but it's fair to say it would slow down Windermere when the branch needs speeding up if anything.

To me until MML, Transpennine and West country routes are finished we shouldn't be starting any new projects, and realistically even with political will this is well over 10 years away.

You need to start approving projects now to have the design work done ready for the TRU team to move straight on without a break after they finish.

I think we should forget about any lines with just an hourly service (or worse!), whilst we still have so many lines with four or more diesel trains per hour

Unless we embrace bi-modes properly, you’d have to ensure that you didn’t left any awkward gaps or “diesel islands“ - so if you were focused in that region then I’d want to see rites like the full “Salisbury Six” included (despite bits only getting an hourly service)…

There's a bit of a problem though with looking at 1 section of line and saying it has 4tph, if all 4 go to different destinations that are all unelectrified. Unless we replace every single DMU in the country with bi-modes, electrification will always need to go hand-in-hand with service strategy.

 

[YourMum666]

North Wales Coastal is quite profitable, and should be looked into with Hs2 arriving

 

[zwk500]

North Wales Coastal is quite profitable, and should be looked into with Hs2 arriving

May I ask how you reached this conclusion?

 

[deltic]

North Wales Coastal is quite profitable, and should be looked into with Hs2 arriving

Is a basket case!

Any routes to be electrified need to be those that are probably going to be more beneficial to freight more so than passenger trains which is why I think that Reading West to Basingstoke should be at the top of the list and perhaps having OHLE installed between Basingstoke and Southampton docks.

Why? Plenty of freight is moved by diesel locos on already electrified lines.