UK rail lines that are the most profitable / have the best business case ratio to be electrified

[SouthEastBuses]

This thread is for the discussion of which in your opinion would be the most profitable or having the best business case ratio / cost benefit analysis etc. lines in the UK to be electrified. So basically, which lines in your opinion is where the costs are the most worth it.

Ultimately every project costs money and some projects are just worthless which is why I created this thread on which lines would have the best electrification cost and benefits

This thread might be of particular interest for @Bald Rick and @zwk500 who appear to be experts on this sort of topic.

 

[Bald Rick]

We had a similar thread a few months ago, I can’t imagine the answer will be any different.

 

[SouthEastBuses]

We had a similar thread a few months ago, I can’t imagine the answer will be any different.

Ah that's cool then - can you link it here please?

 

[snowball]

There's a pinned thread that lists a bewildering variety of electrification-related threads.

Electrification threads and resources index

I have put summary links to the electrification threads I can find - here. This thread is a constant work in progress. First of all I have had many requests to put the link to Garry Keenor's (C.Eng) excellent work on Electrification here. It is available as a free download. As new versions get...

www.railforums.co.uk

 

[zwk500]

While I'm honoured to be put in the same category as @Bald Rick, I'm very much in his shadow. I'm currently on a year out of the industry (but will be returning) so my contributions will be very much 'feelings' than anything more concrete.

To get us started, here's some relevant threads:

Why is Electrification in England progressing much slower ?

Had a read of the new civil engineer blog this morning and in 2022 only 2.2km of track was electrified nationally, which is less than 1% of the expected amount which totals to about 448km annually. In Scotland electrification seems to be happening at a much more consistent rate with more miles...

www.railforums.co.uk

Rail electrification possible for 95% of UK freight trains, CILT research reveals

The Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transport, today released a paper suggesting that 95% of Freight trains could be run by electric traction, with only a comparative small additional mileage to be put under the wires. The map is especially interesting. I would be interested to hear the...

www.railforums.co.uk

Just for fun (Which lines 'if electrified' would reduce the most carbon ?)

Inspired by the ongoing thread on easy to win electrification schemes, which lines would reduce the most carbon if electrified ?

www.railforums.co.uk

Are there any ‘Easy Win’ electrification projects that are worth looking at?

mods note - split from here I get the impression that electrification projects are now just that, tightly defined and limited in scope and area, to prove that it can be done. Nothing else will be tackled unless really necessary, or some other budget agrees to fund it. You might see a portal...

www.railforums.co.uk

Fundamentally, we are looking for projects that would allow the greatest volume of services (revenue) to transition to EMU operation, for the least potential outlay. The 'Sparks Effect' would normally be most noticeable on Intercity lines and Metros, but Bi-Modes have changed the game somewhat on IC services (which is where the revenue really is) so the pure profit (or, more accurate, least loss) metric may be harder to guess.
The big issue we don't know without detailed knowledge is how badly any tunnels or bridges need rebuilding, this will massively affect the profitability.

 

[RobShipway]

I am sure it has been mentioned in the threads mentioned above by ZWK500, but for me the route between Crewe via Chester to Holyhead is one that needs to be on top of the list of routes that needs to be electrified. I suspect though, that there maybe a lot of work to do on this route to enable it to be electrified.

Also, I would say that the route down to Fishguard needs to be electrified too. But I suspect that maybe a secondary route to the Holyhead line.

 

[deltic]

MML, Sheffield to Manchester, Chiltern, Bristol to Birmingham and Leeds, Reading to Birmingham would most likely have the best business cases.

 

[zwk500]

I am sure it has been mentioned in the threads mentioned above by ZWK500, but for me the route between Crewe via Chester to Holyhead is one that needs to be on top of the list of routes that needs to be electrified. I suspect though, that there maybe a lot of work to do on this route to enable it to be electrified.

Also, I would say that the route down to Fishguard needs to be electrified too. But I suspect that maybe a secondary route to the Holyhead line.

I expect that the costs of electrifying the North Wales coast rise dramatically beyond Llandudno junction, which is where the traffic starts to drop off. I would be very surprised if it had a good business case all the way to Holyhead.
And the traffic level on the Fishguard line also means its madness to electrify it when you have bimodes anyway.

MML, Sheffield to Manchester, Chiltern, Bristol to Birmingham and Leeds, Reading to Birmingham would most likely have the best business cases.

MML is being done, Chiltern is pro ably the best bet of any of these.
Sheffield to Manchester on its own doesn't really help anything and has long tunnels, the crosscountry route would still need bimodes, and Reading to Birmingham's prime candidates for electrification would be freight, who would still need bimode locos so the profitability is low.

I'd say Chiltern then Birmingham Suburban infill, then Manchester and Bristol metro are your best cases.

 

[MattRat]

I expect that the costs of electrifying the North Wales coast rise dramatically beyond Llandudno junction, which is where the traffic starts to drop off. I would be very surprised if it had a good business case all the way to Holyhead.

I could see it being electrified to Llandudno, along with other upgrades to increase frequency. Might not be an instant return on investment, but the economic boost, especially in the summer, would ultimately make a return on investment

 

[Nottingham59]

which in your opinion would be the most profitable (so basically having the best business case ratio, cost benefit analysis etc.) lines in the UK to be electrified.

Start with almost all lengths of track that carry 6tph or more. There are not many places with this intensity that are not already electrified, but I can think of Dore-Sheffield; Stourbridge-Dorridge; Chiltern mainline south of Bicester. I assume there are other 6tph lines around Bristol and Leeds that are long enough to recharge a Battery-powered BEMU.

Once this programme is committed, plan a cascadable national fleet of BEMUs that can be configured as short-range BEMU (e.g. 40 miles guaranteed range); long-range BEMU (100 miles guaranteed); tri-mode with biodiesel range extender. Perhaps top speed of 110mph on the wires, around 70-90mph on battery.

Plan the BEMU roll-out to exploit existing battery opportunities (e.g. Windermere; CLC; East-West Rail or Didcot-Oxford) and committed electrification programmes (e.g. Matlock; Liverpool-Nottingham; Kidderminster-Stratford). You can't assess other electrification proposals until you've got a Battery strategy.

At the same time, convert fully-electrified mainlines (e.g. ECML; MML etc.) to pure EMU and cascade their 80x electo-diesel bimodes to routes that are only partially electrified (e.g. Chiltern; XC)

Then electrify the mainlines carrying 4tph or more (e.g Chiltern north of Bicester; Bristol-Bromsgrove; Birmingham Derby: there must be others), and start to build recharging islands at network nodes beyond the range of existing electrification (e.g. Salisbury; Worcester; Exeter-Taunton; Lincoln)

Throughout the programme look for opportunities to extend electrification cheaply to reduce miles run under battery, by lengthening OHLE run-outs to the first overbridge or by feeding recharge zones from existing OHLE schemes (e.g. around Warrington Central; Newark Castle; Retford low-level).

As you roll out electrification, grow the EMU-only fleet in the core network, releasing bimodes and BEMUs to service the periphery and progressively cascade the existing diesel fleet into the wilds of Lincolnshire, Cornwall and Wales.

 

[175mph]

I'd say Selby to Hull!

 

[zwk500]

I could see it being electrified to Llandudno, along with other upgrades to increase frequency. Might not be an instant return on investment, but the economic boost, especially in the summer, would ultimately make a return on investment

I can easily see a case for Chester-Llandudno once east of Chester has been done. Especially with Battery and Bi-Modes available. It's not a great economic case, but it is a case. Getting through to Bangor would be ideal, but not sure if the Conwy bridge is a problem and then there's the tunnels east of Bangor (which I won't try and spell).

 

[Philip]

I can easily see a case for Chester-Llandudno once east of Chester has been done. Especially with Battery and Bi-Modes available. It's not a great economic case, but it is a case. Getting through to Bangor would be ideal, but not sure if the Conwy bridge is a problem and then there's the tunnels east of Bangor (which I won't try and spell).

The tunnel east of Chester at Christleton is a big enough challenge in itself; the wires won't fit unless the bores are enlarged, and that would mean either diverting the line of the canal/railway, or the canal locking up and down to allow more clearance.

 

[SouthEastBuses]

The tunnel east of Chester at Christleton is a big enough challenge in itself; the wires won't not fit unless the bores are enlarged, and that would mean either diverting the line of the canal/railway, or the canal locking up and down to allow more clearance.

Can you not use the conductor rail like the Severn Tunnel has done?

 

[zwk500]

The tunnel east of Chester at Christleton is a big enough challenge in itself; the wires won't not fit unless the bores are enlarged, and that would mean either diverting the line of the canal/railway, or the canal locking up and down to allow more clearance.

That is indeed a challenge - I suspect Conductor rail won't fit with that, although you could do something similar to what they did for the EGIP and take a weekend possession of both canal and railway and dig it out before putting a replacement aqueduct in. It may need a bit of track lowering/slab track to get the maximum clearance.

 

[rapmastaj]

Follow Scotland's lead and get a rolling programme of electrification running with teams based in each region. It may sound unlikely in today's political climate but it's sorely needed and governments do change. Then they can get started on something like the following:

SE team:
- Felixstowe-Ipswich
- London Gateway
- Chiltern

SW team:
- Didcot-Oxford
- Bristol both ways

Midland team:
- Snow Hill lines
- Birmingham-Nuneaton
- MML if not already done

NW team:
- Windermere
- CLC
- Crewe-Chester
- Warrington-Chester

NE team:
- Calder Vale
- Sheffield-Doncaster
- Hull-Leeds

Wales team:
- Cardiff-Swansea
- North Wales mainline

etc

 

[Mzzzs]

I think one route which could do with some wires up is the line from Derby to Birmingham. Birmingham is already electrified and Derby will be in the future.
It's probably unrealistic now.
Maybe Lincoln to Newark and Nottingham?
Snow hill, Chiltern and new street to Hereford would be the ones I would do soon.

 

[SouthEastBuses]

I think one route which could do with some wires up is the line from Derby to Birmingham. Birmingham is already electrified and Derby will be in the future.

I agree, however, in order for the project to work, you'll also need to do Bromsgrove-Bristol/Severn Tunnel Junction, Bristol-Plymouth and Sheffield-Leeds at the same time in order for Birmingham-Derby to work at its full potential. Otherwise XC will have to continue using their DMUs or at best order bi-modes

Maybe Lincoln to Newark and Nottingham?

Lincoln to Newark and Nottingham also is a good contender however you'll also need to do Derby to Stoke on Trent plus Lincoln to Grimsby Town if you want pure EMUs to be used. Also being 1tph, imo I wouldn't say it's a priority for now

Snow hill, Chiltern and new street to Hereford would be the ones I would do soon.

Snow Hill & Chiltern certainly a big priority, although west of Worcester, whilst still a good idea, I would say probably less of a priority seeing that it's mostly 1tph with just 2tph at odd hours

 

[YourMum666]

MML, Sheffield to Manchester, Chiltern, Bristol to Birmingham and Leeds, Reading to Birmingham would most likely have the best business cases.

Extending the GWR wires as far as Oxford, Bristol and Swansea is quite a good business case

I think one route which could do with some wires up is the line from Derby to Birmingham. Birmingham is already electrified and Derby will be in the future.
It's probably unrealistic now.
Maybe Lincoln to Newark and Nottingham?
Snow hill, Chiltern and new street to Hereford would be the ones I would do soon.

that would require finishing the GW Oxford branch and extending it at least for full GWR 80xs to run from paddington, and it gives justification for some bi modes to be converted fully to EMU, freeing up bimodes for the west country

I agree, however, in order for the project to work, you'll also need to do Bromsgrove-Bristol/Severn Tunnel Junction, Bristol-Plymouth and Sheffield-Leeds at the same time in order for Birmingham-Derby to work at its full potential. Otherwise XC will have to continue using their DMUs or at best order bi-modes



Lincoln to Newark and Nottingham also is a good contender however you'll also need to do Derby to Stoke on Trent plus Lincoln to Grimsby Town if you want pure EMUs to be used. Also being 1tph, imo I wouldn't say it's a priority for now



Snow Hill & Chiltern certainly a big priority, although west of Worcester, whilst still a good idea, I would say probably less of a priority seeing that it's mostly 1tph with just 2tph at odd hours

I would probably do Newbury to Exeter as well to have 387s run semi fasts and stoppers to and from paddington to the Berks and Hants down to Exeter and to free up more IETs for the South Wales and Penzance runs, and you can convert some 800s to 801s with these wires going up, so it’s a knock on effect

 

[GRALISTAIR]

I am sure it has been mentioned in the threads mentioned above by ZWK500, but for me the route between Crewe via Chester to Holyhead is one that needs to be on top of the list of routes that needs to be electrified. I suspect though, that there maybe a lot of work to do on this route to enable it to be electrified.

Also, I would say that the route down to Fishguard needs to be electrified too. But I suspect that maybe a secondary route to the Holyhead line.

You are obviously extracting the Michael? Very clever.

Chilterns starting at Marylebone

 

[deltic]

Sheffield to Manchester on its own doesn't really help anything and has long tunnels, the crosscountry route would still need bimodes, and Reading to Birmingham's prime candidates for electrification would be freight, who would still need bimode locos so the profitability is low.

I'd say Chiltern then Birmingham Suburban infill, then Manchester and Bristol metro are your best cases.

A good business case and profitability are very different. Significant journey time savings on routes with high levels of potential for business travel are key. Manchester - Sheffield would enable Nottingham to Liverpool to be operated by EMU, cross-country services would be reduced to operating on the core section from Reading/Bristol northwards. Bristol metro would struggle to justify a business case.

 

[RobShipway]

I expect that the costs of electrifying the North Wales coast rise dramatically beyond Llandudno junction, which is where the traffic starts to drop off. I would be very surprised if it had a good business case all the way to Holyhead.
And the traffic level on the Fishguard line also means its madness to electrify it when you have bimodes anyway.

Fair point.

You are obviously extracting the Michael? Very clever.

Chilterns starting at Marylebone

I am not actually, I am not sure of the amount post covid, but I do know that there was many people that travelled up from London and from The Midlands by train to get across to Ireland by ferry pre - covid.

There is possibly now post covid, more people travel to go across on the ferries by car than by train. But I certainly think with having the class 805 units on the route in place of the class 221 units, that electrification to Llandudno Junction should be looked into. I think it would also be good to be helping to build freight traffic in the areas, to take a lot lorries off the roads.

Lincoln to Newark and Nottingham also is a good contender however you'll also need to do Derby to Stoke on Trent plus Lincoln to Grimsby Town if you want pure EMUs to be used. Also being 1tph, imo I wouldn't say it's a priority for now

If you are going to Grimsby Town, then should electrification not be taken to the end of the line at Cleethorpes?

Follow Scotland's lead and get a rolling programme of electrification running with teams based in each region. It may sound unlikely in today's political climate but it's sorely needed and governments do change. Then they can get started on something like the following:

SE team:
- Felixstowe-Ipswich
- London Gateway
- Chiltern

SW team:
- Didcot-Oxford
- Bristol both ways

Midland team:
- Snow Hill lines
- Birmingham-Nuneaton
- MML if not already done

NW team:
- Windermere
- CLC
- Crewe-Chester
- Warrington-Chester

NE team:
- Calder Vale
- Sheffield-Doncaster
- Hull-Leeds

Wales team:
- Cardiff-Swansea
- North Wales mainline

etc

I think the above if executed would be a good program of electrification and as you say is sorely needed, especially if the Government wants to keep to their clamp down on pollution targets i.e. decarbonisation.

Although you state about Bristol both ways, when you already have electrification through Bristol Parkway. What is needed is electrification through Bristol Temple Meads.

 

[The Planner]

Follow Scotland's lead and get a rolling programme of electrification running with teams based in each region. It may sound unlikely in today's political climate but it's sorely needed and governments do change. Then they can get started on something like the following:

SE team:
- Felixstowe-Ipswich
- London Gateway
- Chiltern

SW team:
- Didcot-Oxford
- Bristol both ways

Midland team:
- Snow Hill lines
- Birmingham-Nuneaton
- MML if not already done

NW team:
- Windermere
- CLC
- Crewe-Chester
- Warrington-Chester

NE team:
- Calder Vale
- Sheffield-Doncaster
- Hull-Leeds

Wales team:
- Cardiff-Swansea
- North Wales mainline

etc

I doubt there is that much resource to be able to do that.

 

[Trainbike46]

Fair point.


I am not actually, I am not sure of the amount post covid, but I do know that there was many people that travelled up from London and from The Midlands by train to get across to Ireland by ferry pre - covid.

There is possibly now post covid, more people travel to go across on the ferries by car than by train. But I certainly think with having the class 805 units on the route in place of the class 221 units, that electrification to Llandudno Junction should be looked into. I think it would also be good to be helping to build freight traffic in the areas, to take a lot lorries off the roads.


If you are going to Grimsby Town, then should electrification not be taken to the end of the line at Cleethorpes?


I think the above if executed would be a good program of electrification and as you say is sorely needed, especially if the Government wants to keep to their clamp down on pollution targets i.e. decarbonisation.

Although you state about Bristol both ways, when you already have electrification through Bristol Parkway. What is needed is electrification through Bristol Temple Meads.

Bristol both ways means electrifying both routes from london to Bristol TM, so both via Bath and via Bristol Parkway. Of course the distance left to do for that second route isn't that long!

 

[zwk500]

Extending the GWR wires as far as Oxford, Bristol and Swansea is quite a good business case

Oxford and Bristol (definitely via Parkway, not sure about profitability of Bath) yes, Swansea marginal. And remember this is (as @deltic says) about profitability not business case.

I would probably do Newbury to Exeter as well to have 387s run semi fasts and stoppers to and from paddington to the Berks and Hants down to Exeter and to free up more IETs for the South Wales and Penzance runs, and you can convert some 800s to 801s with these wires going up, so it’s a knock on effect

You won't be running 387s to Exeter without causing a riot! Wiring to Exeter both ways would make a lot of sense, but I'm not sure about profitability given the work involved

A good business case and profitability are very different. Significant journey time savings on routes with high levels of potential for business travel are key. Manchester - Sheffield would enable Nottingham to Liverpool to be operated by EMU, cross-country services would be reduced to operating on the core section from Reading/Bristol northwards. Bristol metro would struggle to justify a business case.

Manchester-Sheffield doesn't address Sheffield-Nottingham lacking wires (and the existing MML isn't going to cover that).

 

[SouthEastBuses]

And remember this is (as @deltic says) about profitability not business case.

Aren't both profitability and business case the same thing? In any thing, and I'll correct my introduction post asap, this is also about having a good business case, basically in other words, ensuring that the money you have spent is worth it (benefits outweigh the costs)

If you are going to Grimsby Town, then should electrification not be taken to the end of the line at Cleethorpes?

My mistake. I thought the end of the line was at Grimsby as that's where the EMR trains from Nottingham & Lincoln terminate.

I would probably do Newbury to Exeter as well to have 387s run semi fasts and stoppers to and from paddington to the Berks and Hants down to Exeter and to free up more IETs for the South Wales and Penzance runs, and you can convert some 800s to 801s with these wires going up, so it’s a knock on effect

387s imo are probably better suited (if you make the seats more comfortable) to stopper services from Plymouth or Paignton to Cardiff Central. Although a slow stopper service from Exeter to London stopping at all the B&H stations like Castle Cary, Pewsey, Bedwyn etc. might also be a good idea

 

[zwk500]

Aren't both profitability and business case the same thing? In any thing, and I'll correct my introduction post asap, this is also about having a good business case, basically in other words, ensuring that the money you have spent is worth it (benefits outweigh the costs)

A business case for public investment is about whether the economy overall will grow by more than the investment. It can include anything from business deals to air quality (cleaner air = less lung disease = less money spent on NHS = benefit of 'x' pence per £1 spent).
Profitability is simply whether Revenue > Costs to the railway. Electrification may decrease Opex, if electricity is cheaper than diesel and EMus cause less wear, but it might also increase it through needing to maintain the OLE etc. It will also have a Capex for new EMUs (unless you can cascade from another project), installing the electrification kit, and any other associated station and bridge modifications. Very, very few lines will be able to have Revenue cover the direct cost to the railway, even if you write off the borrowing as a Government grant covered by economic growth (in theory).

387s imo are probably better suited (if you make the seats more comfortable) to stopper services from Plymouth or Paignton to Cardiff Central. Although a slow stopper service from Exeter to London stopping at all the B&H stations like Castle Cary, Pewsey, Bedwyn etc. might also be a good idea

387s are best suited to outer suburban services. London to Oxford and Newbury are obvious 387 routes. Westbury to Cardiff maybe. Paignton to Cardiff is not best suited to 387s, although you might use them as a perfectly acceptable train where you want to offer some market segmentation a la LNR/Avanti London-Crewe.

 

[SouthEastBuses]

387s are best suited to outer suburban services. London to Oxford and Newbury are obvious 387 routes. Westbury to Cardiff maybe. Paignton to Cardiff is not best suited to 387s, although you might use them as a perfectly acceptable train where you want to offer some market segmentation a la LNR/Avanti London-Crewe.

I once had a weird dream of having Plymouth-Cardiff stoppers run by 365s haha

Anyways, so you're saying that routes like Paignton or Penzance to Cardiff would be better suited to stuff like IETs, or TPE's Nova 2s? Basically 200 km/h stuff?

A business case for public investment is about whether the economy overall will grow by more than the investment. It can include anything from business deals to air quality (cleaner air = less lung disease = less money spent on NHS = benefit of 'x' pence per £1 spent).
Profitability is simply whether Revenue > Costs to the railway. Electrification may decrease Opex, if electricity is cheaper than diesel and EMus cause less wear, but it might also increase it through needing to maintain the OLE etc. It will also have a Capex for new EMUs (unless you can cascade from another project), installing the electrification kit, and any other associated station and bridge modifications. Very, very few lines will be able to have Revenue cover the direct cost to the railway, even if you write off the borrowing as a Government grant covered by economic growth (in theory).

Ahh, business case ratio is what I better meant. I just wasn't sure what was the correct terminology I needed to ensure that an electrification project is viable!

 

[XAM2175]

That is indeed a challenge - I suspect Conductor rail won't fit with that, although you could do something similar to what they did for the EGIP and take a weekend possession of both canal and railway and dig it out before putting a replacement aqueduct in. It may need a bit of track lowering/slab track to get the maximum clearance.

Ooh, I'd not seen that timelapse before. Lovely bit of work!

Ahh, business case ratio is what I better meant.

The phrase you want with "ratio" on the end is "benefit-to-cost ratio". A business case is something compiled to describe that ratio.

 

[Nottingham59]

The phrase you want with "ratio" on the end is "benefit-to-cost ratio". A business case is something compiled to describe that ratio.

But do remember that the "cost" term in BCR calculations is the full initial investment of the project reduced by the income over the lifetime of the project, such as increased ticket sales or reduced maintenance costs. (This is with all cashflows discounted over time).

In the commercial world, only projects that had a negative "cost" would ever get done, as here the future income streams would exceed the up-front investment cost.

Public investments are assessed on whether the public benefits (such as time savings) exceed the calculated "cost" of the project. Sometimes they have to invent "Wider Economic Impacts" too, like they did on HS2, to justify a scheme that is never going to make a financial return.