Confirmed : HS2 West Midlands-Manchester line to be scrapped and replaced with other projects.

[Bald Rick]

You're rather vague as to the causes of the failure to start construction...

Well that’s because I don’t know. I mean I do know a lot, but not everything.

The point I was making is that the line has been consented to be built for nearly a decade, and construction hasn’t started yet (nor is it close to being started). And the French Government must have vacillated about it throughout the intervening period. (If they hadn’t, it would be being built). It was originally supposed to open in 2019/20…

 

[ADIRU]

Quoted above: Rishi Sunak has not won an election for anything but his own Parliamentary seat....

Rishi Sunak wins race to become the UK’s new prime minister

Sunak wins Conservative Party leadership contest days after the dramatic resignation of Liz Truss as prime minister.

www.aljazeera.com

 

[Wolfie]

Quoted above: Rishi Sunak has not won an election for anything but his own Parliamentary seat....

Rishi Sunak wins race to become the UK’s new prime minister

Sunak wins Conservative Party leadership contest days after the dramatic resignation of Liz Truss as prime minister.

www.aljazeera.com

What election? He was unopposed! He previously lost to Truss.

 

[Winthorpe]

Quoted above: Rishi Sunak has not won an election for anything but his own Parliamentary seat....

Rishi Sunak wins race to become the UK’s new prime minister

Sunak wins Conservative Party leadership contest days after the dramatic resignation of Liz Truss as prime minister.

www.aljazeera.com

What election? He was unopposed! He previously lost to Truss.

He isn't the president. He only needs to win his own seat.

 

[Krokodil]

He isn't the president. He only needs to win his own seat.

The point was that even his party members didn't vote for him.

His seat is one of the safest in the country, a donkey wearing a blue rosette could have won. A donkey wearing a blue rosette would probably have had a better transport policy.

Just in case I get accused of being too party political, I would just like to note for the sake of balance that Starmer is being utterly spineless on the issue, continuing his usual policy of sitting on the fence and just meekly following whatever the blue team does.

 

[snowball]

Sunak’s ‘spiteful’ sale of land intended for HS2 dashes hopes of revival

Prime minister’s move criticised as ‘salting the earth’ so Birmingham-Crewe line cannot be built

www.theguardian.com

This Guardian report (apologies for the paywall) suggests

Don't worry, it's not a paywall.

 

[Class 170101]

Labour won Shipley in 1997.

I reckon Philip Davies might have trouble winning his seat, one of either him or Esther McVey isn't living in their constituency (and maybe both of them).

Fairly vindictive, but it is all strategy from here on in.

Thats the trouble with UK politics these days, frankly it needs serious reform to up its standards of service to the people its supposed to serve.

It's a bit late to revise the Handsacare junction now. Any changes at all at Colwich, I'll believe when I see.

Apparently not enough room through Handsacre and Stafford.

There is a need to shift people from plane to train for travelling between the Scotland and South of England to reduce CO2 emissions and the only practical way to substantially increase capacity on the trains is to use the two train paths an hour currently used by the AWC trains from London Euston to Glasgow

This will also need to be done if the government wants to trade with Asia and the Far East and South America as they are unlikely to get more flights into Heathrow (no 3rd Runway) so domestic flights into Heathrow (and maybe Manchester) will need to go.

 

[Sir Felix Pole]

Well that’s because I don’t know. I mean I do know a lot, but not everything.

The point I was making is that the line has been consented to be built for nearly a decade, and construction hasn’t started yet (nor is it close to being started). And the French Government must have vacillated about it throughout the intervening period. (If they hadn’t, it would be being built). It was originally supposed to open in 2019/20…

President Macron stopped work on all new LGV projects upon his inauguration in 2017, saying that the focus would be on developing the classic network instead. He has since reverse ferreted - Montpellier to Béziers has now been approved and Bordeaux to Toulouse restarted. To be fair, Toulouse is quite complex - tricky quadrupling of the classic main-line in an urban area towards Montauban and expansion of Matabiau station.

 

[Winthorpe]

The point was that even his party members didn't vote for him.

His seat is one of the safest in the country, a donkey wearing a blue rosette could have won. A donkey wearing a blue rosette would probably have had a better transport policy.

Just in case I get accused of being too party political, I would just like to note for the sake of balance that Starmer is being utterly spineless on the issue, continuing his usual policy of sitting on the fence and just meekly following whatever the blue team does.

The reason none of these infrastrure projects get done is there isn't cross-party consensus.

Even the 'greens' oppose it, which says it all.

 

[Tezza1978]

Don't worry, it's not a paywall.

Reading this - 2b safeguarding is to be in place until "next summer" as some needed for their other plans. That gives very, very little time before an expected autumn election. 0% chance election will be later than Nov 2024. £219m for the properties bought so far in the 2a area is chicken feed in the grand scale of things and could easily be bought back - or am I missing something here??

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

DfT trying to renegotiate Hitachi deal on number of trains needed/where they are needed:

https://twitter.com/philatrail/status/1709988946975834558

The Rail North blurb yesterday was clear that HS2 phase 1 needs to be delivered for minimum cost now and they will be reviewing what can be descoped. Next will be reduced power supply, lower spec signalling, small depot etc etc probably even go to ballasted track. Fact is had it not been so advanced they would have chopped phase 1 as well.

 

[Westerndiesels]

The scorched earth policy will be his for probably centuries to come.

No more road or rail investment in my eyes. Too risky in this country due to party politics or even career politics more important. If it can't be designed and built in 4 years forget it.

This country really is a laughing stock

 

[Elshad]

It’s not just road or rail. Almost ALL infrastructure in this country is neutered by nimbys, lunatic pressure groups and the spineless politicians who pander to them. Third runway at Heathrow a good example. Should have been built years ago.

 

[brad465]

The scorched earth policy will be his for probably centuries to come.

No more road or rail investment in my eyes. Too risky in this country due to party politics or even career politics more important. If it can't be designed and built in 4 years forget it.

This country really is a laughing stock

Unless you're a consultant, in which place they'll be queuing up from across the globe.

 

[fishwomp]

The scorched earth policy will be his for probably centuries to come.

No more road or rail investment in my eyes. Too risky in this country due to party politics or even career politics more important. If it can't be designed and built in 4 years forget it.

This country really is a laughing stock

Settle-Carlisle was built in 7 years, by hand, with 6,000 workers (https://settle-carlisle.co.uk/heritage/history). HS2 is 30,000, with machinery, and 9 years for phase 1 we're told! Umm.

Not an easy or safe job back then though.

 

[Luke McDonnell]

As HS2 phase 2a is authorised by an act of parliament will the potentially be a legal challenge against selling off the land? Could be argued in court that to sell of land will require Parliamentary approval could this be the route that Burnham could go down? Surely if there is a legal challenge against the possibility land sale the legal process would delay any potential land sale until after the election on its own?

Not a lawyer but surely there must be grounds for legal challenge if you try to sell of without Parliamentary approval just look at the Gina Miller decision regarding Brexit

 

[MidlandMainlie]

Sunak’s ‘spiteful’ sale of land intended for HS2 dashes hopes of revival

Prime minister’s move criticised as ‘salting the earth’ so Birmingham-Crewe line cannot be built

www.theguardian.com

This Guardian report (apologies for the paywall) suggests that Sunak has authorized the sale of CPOd land already - but shouldn't that be impossible as the Act of Parliament for HS2 phase 2a hasn't yet been revoked?

You would think the decision would be judicially reviewed, I wouldn’t be surprised if Andy Burnham launched a legal challenge against the land sales for phase 2a

The ruling party has more than sufficient people in parliament to win a vote to repeal the act.

Depending on the date of the next election there wouldn’t be much time, even with an Autumn election once the Summer recess happens there won‘t be anything after that so would they wast parliamentary time on a bill to remove phase 2a

 

[HSTEd]

You would think the decision would be judicially reviewed, I wouldn’t be surprised if Andy Burnham launched a legal challenge against the land sales for phase 2a

As far as HS2A goes, it doesn't really matter in terms of building the project.
It's a couple hundred million pounds worth of property, all of which is authorised for compulsory purchase under the terms of the act of parliament authorising Phase 2A.

If Labour wants to build it and they win the election, they will be able to.

Just I don't expect them to want to.

Depending on the date of the next election there wouldn’t be much time, even with an Autumn election once the Summer recess happens there won‘t be anything after that so would they wast parliamentary time on a bill to remove phase 2a

If the Lords don't agree, and I doubt they will, it wouldn't matter.
The absolute earliest, if the bill somehow passes tomorrow, that the government could impose the Parliament Act would be october 2024.

That would force Sunak into an autumn/winter election that he has little chance of winning.
If the bill isn't passed by Christmas he would be physically unable to impose it before the election.

 

[Arkeeos]

What's interesting is the lack of normal process this decision has had, its had no consulting with anyone knowledgeable, the report doesn't look at any alternative options, its only 40pages long and in that is a wish list of projects in marginals and the justification for scrapping HS2. The updated BCRs have had to come from the permanent secretary, so it seems likely they were never considered. Totally unconventional, not a good look that the UK has essentially had an executive arbitrary decision to scrap the countries biggest infrastructure project.

I definitely feel sympathy for the people in the rail industry, essentially having been blindsided by the government.

 

[brad465]

What's interesting is the lack of normal process this decision has had, its had no consulting with anyone knowledgeable, the report doesn't look at any alternative options, its only 40pages long and in that is a wish list of projects in marginals and the justification for scrapping HS2. The updated BCRs have had to come from the head of the transport select committee, so it seems likely they were never considered. Totally unconventional, not a good look that the UK has essentially had an executive arbitrary decision to scrap the countries biggest infrastructure project.

I definitely feel sympathy for the people in the rail industry, essentially having been blindsided by the government.

Sunak seems to have gone rogue, potentially in desperation with a looming election and no real improvement in polling since he took over (even Johnson wasn't this brazen in bypassing norms, which says a lot). This move over HS2 is not the first announcement of any policy he has made that fits what you describe, and I'd be very surprised if it was the last.

 

[MidlandMainlie]

As far as HS2A goes, it doesn't really matter in terms of building the project.
It's a couple hundred million pounds worth of property, all of which is authorised for compulsory purchase under the terms of the act of parliament authorising Phase 2A.

If Labour wants to build it and they win the election, they will be able to.

Just I don't expect them to want to.

That is the point though, the Act authorises the purchase of land I can’t understand how the PM can unilaterally decide to override without another vote in Parliament to repeal the Act. A judicial review would also take 9-15 months.

I think there is support within Labour for building Phase 2 but Starmer has the spine of a Jellyfish and is afraid to commit to anything (and I say that as a Labour member and not one on the Corbyn wing of the party either).

If the Lords don't agree, and I doubt they will, it wouldn't matter.
The absolute earliest, if the bill somehow passes tomorrow, that the government could impose the Parliament Act would be october 2024.

That would force Sunak into an autumn/winter election that he has little chance of winning.
If the bill isn't passed by Christmas he would be physically unable to impose it before the election.

.

A bill would need to be in the Kings Speech next month and I don’t see why the government would dedicate what little parliamentary time it has left to it when it has other things to focus on.

 

[HSTEd]

That is the point though, the Act authorises the purchase of land I can’t understand how the PM can unilaterally decide to override without another vote in Parliament to repeal the Act. A judicial review would also take 9-15 months.

I suppose that the act authorises the secretary of state to order the purchase of land (within the areas defined by the act) deemed necessary for the project.
The Prime Minister could argue that no land is deemed necessary for the project.

I think there is support within Labour for building Phase 2 but Starmer has the spine of a Jellyfish and is afraid to commit to anything (and I say that as a Labour member and not one on the Corbyn wing of the party either).

Also as a former Labour member (not a Corbynite or a Blairite), Starmer has a long history of being anti HS2 on the backbenches.

I very much doubt he will order the project restarted, and I don't think he will tolerate Burnham as Mayor of Manchester after May. I expect he will be deselected if he attempts to stand again. He's far too independent of Head Office, he will dealt with like Blair tried to deal with Red Ken, but Burnham doesn't have Supplementryl Vote to save him from deselection.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

What's interesting is the lack of normal process this decision has had, its had no consulting with anyone knowledgeable, the report doesn't look at any alternative options, its only 40pages long and in that is a wish list of projects in marginals and the justification for scrapping HS2. The updated BCRs have had to come from the head of the transport select committee, so it seems likely they were never considered. Totally unconventional, not a good look that the UK has essentially had an executive arbitrary decision to scrap the countries biggest infrastructure project.

While that's true, it's also worth pointing out that there has been a lot of criticism in these threads about the way rail projects go through endless consultations that take years and seem to rack up huge expense rather than the Government just deciding what it's going to to and then getting down and building it. So, isn't the Government just announcing some proposals like this therefore a bit closer to what some people would like?

(Yes I'm being a little tongue'n cheek. I do appreciate that this announcement is worth very little since all the ideas in the document will, if they go ahead, end up getting bogged down in the usual consultation processes, with ample opportunity for them to be subsequently pulled.)

I definitely feel sympathy for the people in the rail industry, essentially having been blindsided by the government.

Agreed.

 

[WatcherZero]

I was actually surprised by how low the value of land they had acquired for 2A was thats now going to be released £446m. I suppose they had only been buying from people that wanted to sell under the hardship scheme rather than issuing CPO's. Still that isnt a very substantial landbank to replace.

 

[Arkeeos]

While that's true, it's also worth pointing out that there has been a lot of criticism in these threads about the way rail projects go through endless consultations that take years and seem to rack up huge expense rather than the Government just deciding what it's going to to and then getting down and building it. So, isn't the Government just announcing some proposals like this therefore a bit closer to what some people would like?

That still stands, its just funny how the painfully slow bureaucracy that people thought would kill HS2 actually might be what saves it.

 

[Chester1]

DfT trying to renegotiate Hitachi deal on number of trains needed/where they are needed:

https://twitter.com/philatrail/status/1709988946975834558

“Monsieur - j’ai quelque trains à grande vitesse, tres nouvelle, je ne vous pas vendre, mais pour vous une prix spécial…”

How many do they need? Avanti have 56 Pendolinos and use some Voyagers for under wire services. Will Birmingham- Manchester services run on HS2 between Curzon Street and Handsacre? The order is for 54 x 200m sets?

London - Birmingham - 3tph
London - Manchester - 3tph
London - Liverpool - 1tph
London - Glasgow - 1tph
Birmingham - Manchester - 2tph

If the sets are extended by two coaches then the number of coaches ordered should be in right ball park, its a matter of varying contract to have fewer end coaches.

 

[JamesT]

Sad. It has been so obvious for too long that entering into a procurement so far ahead of track is bonkers. What on earth did DfT think it was doing locking in the full quantity on a project with so many uncertainties.. surely that can't be so.

I don’t think they did. 54 units was the quantity required for Phase 1/2a. Completion of Phase 2b would require another order, which could have been more of the same or Euro spec units to run solely on HS2 with the original units cascading onto services running onto the classic network.
The order was placed after the Bill for 2a gained Royal Assent in 2021. At that point it looked reasonable that it would go ahead.
The first train is supposed to be finished by 2027. The track schedule has slipped since then, but given you can only work with what you know at the time, that doesn’t give a huge amount of leeway for delaying ordering. (Initial operation could have been as early as 2029, and you would need a few produced for that level of service)

 

[Arkeeos]

I think there is support within Labour for building Phase 2 but Starmer has the spine of a Jellyfish and is afraid to commit to anything (and I say that as a Labour member and not one on the Corbyn wing of the party either).

If we look at what position Labour will be in next year and what hs2 will look like then I think it’s clear to see that they basically have only one rational choice:

Like has been said previously, repealing HS2 phase 2a will be in the House of Lords with a month or so left at minimum, the land will have been sold but compulsory purchase powers are still there and the contracts terminated.

Euston probably won’t have changed much either. Keep in mind that the “Network North” funding package is 2029-2041

Labour has to choose to either restart and build a new rail plan, continue with Sunaks nonsense which is his own rogue pet project with made up budgets and no business cases, or resume HS2. I think resuming HS2 is clearly the better option, even with the added costs, it being real not least the top reason.

 

[Chuffing Heck]

Is there going to be through running or is everyone going to have to change at Birmingham?

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Is there going to be through running or is everyone going to have to change at Birmingham?

Through running. Trains will still be able to run up from London to join the WCML at Handsacre. It's just that they'll be stuck on the existing lines from then onwards.