Surely the case is now much stronger for Bere Alston - Tavistock - Okehampton!

[Irascible]

When Tavistock is done, it will be the only gap on the Waterloo to Plymouth route and that is its true context and potential. SWR would extend Exeter trains to Plymouth, opening up many journey options, because Woking, Basingstoke, Andover, Salisbury, Gillingham, Templecombe, Sherborne, Yeovil, Crewkerne, Axminster, and Honiton are not on the Paddington route

So, ah, are you proposing rebuilding Cowley Bridge to Saltash as a main line ( if still mostly single track ) route? let's not go into issues in Exeter ( or east of Exeter ). And people can already get to all those places by changing at Exeter anyway.

There's no room for nostalgic competition unless you want to rebuild the entire WoE route as a first class main line - budget please? I mean I'd like it coz it's my nearest mainline, but I'm a realist - and there's no competition anyway because it's all run centrally. The WoE is already an optional route many people take when they don't mind taking another hour & having a comfortable ride, but it's also kinda creaking at the edges as it is.


And that's before we've considered all that cash building a second option that isn't faster than the first one, when we're trying to make the existing one competitive with road.

 

[Falcon1200]

When Tavistock is done, it will be the only gap on the Waterloo to Plymouth route and that is its true context and potential. SWR would extend Exeter trains to Plymouth, opening up many journey options, because Woking, Basingstoke, Andover, Salisbury, Gillingham, Templecombe, Sherborne, Yeovil, Crewkerne, Axminster, and Honiton are not on the Paddington route.

Travel between all those stations and Plymouth is perfectly possible today via a simple change at Exeter St Davids; Are there really hordes of people who do not currently make that journey but would if there was a direct train (which there could be anyway via Dawlish!)?

 

[zwk500]

It wouldn't be a purely local route, I'm not sure why that is so hard to grasp

It would, because the journey times would never come near the main line.

When Tavistock is done, it will be the only gap on the Waterloo to Plymouth route and that is its true context and potential. SWR would extend Exeter trains to Plymouth,

SWR has previously run trains to Plymouth via the existing line, and dropped them because the costs were more than it was worth. There's no reason to believe that history or a lack of reversals will change that. Anybody who wants plymouth from the route served by SWR would change at St Davids to a train heading direct.

 

[The Ham]

The question, which I've answered, is does the reopening to Tavistock make the business case to close the gap better - yes.

Does that mean that I think that there are other schemes which should go ahead before this - yes. However that's not the question being asked.

Do I think that the DAL is a good idea - yes, however probably only in a post HS Wales and West world when it would enable more express services to be run. The other way it could be useful is when passenger numbers have built up, so there's a bigger group of passengers so it improves the business case.

I can both support the reopening of the via Okehampton route (as it has a better business case than the DAL, and an on a similar level business case if you run no services over it) whilst understanding that other improvements are required as a higher priority.

I'm clear in my posts that it's most likely over a longer timeframe (I've suggested 30 years), and that it's worth looking at the business case in a post Crossrail 2 and WofE redoubling.

In such a world you could run the current Exeter service as the stopper along the line to provide interchange between places like Honiton and Tavistock to provide good local interchange. Whilst looking at would an express train from Waterloo would further add to the business case.

Currently the journey time from Waterloo is 3:22, with just redoubling that could cut it down a little, then removing stops it could get it down to around 2:40 which whilst slower than the express from Paddington (circa 2:05) it is on a par with the Exeter semi fasts (circa 2:30). That's not going to get you many from Waterloo (but you don't necessarily need that at there'll be plenty wishing to get to Basingstoke) however from Clapham Junction there could be scope to attract more people from stations which connect to it as they didn't have to get to Paddington.

Of course that is only looking at headline journey times, a lot of the fast services are going to be fairly busy already, so little scope for adding more people to the network. Therefore if you're looking to get to Plymouth and there's a slightly slower but marginally cheaper service you may well for to take it.

Now whilst they may mean that you are taking passengers off the fast services, that's kind of the point, in that they are already fairly full. By taking passengers off those services it allows other passengers to take their place.

Yes that's not worth doing if the fast services and the semi fasts average below 50% seat occupancy, but as they get close to being over 70% the risk reduces. As you get higher still it's probably a good thing to do as there'll certainly be untapped demand.

It would, because the journey times would never come near the main line.

Can you remind me what the report from 2014 said was the increase in journey time for 220's running as an express (without a reversal) compared to the mainline?

Now consider that it said that a reverse at Exeter (something which would be required if you are extending WofE line services to Plymouth) would be?

I know the answer to these questions (spoiler they basically balance out), so if you are going to run services from WofE line (which you'd only really want to do if there was at least some more double track sections so you weren't reliant on everything running perfectly to time) to Plymouth then the overall journey time would be about the same.

Even allowing for a stop at both Okehampton and Tavistock would be about an extra 5 minutes (+3 minutes for a station stop at each), so not really worth the effort of changing trains (even if there was a cross platform change available leaving 3 minutes after the scheduled arrival time - which would save 7 or 8 minutes however even then few would make such a connection integral to their journey without being confident that they'd make it or have a suitable backup).

 

[zwk500]

Can you remind me what the report from 2014 said was the increase in journey time for 220's running as an express (without a reversal) compared to the mainline?

What a pointless comparison because journey times on Okehampton-Tavistock won't be run by 220's non-stop. They'll be local trains run by local DMUs, stopping at most if not all stations. The days of the ACE are *done*.

 

[stuu]

Do I think that the DAL is a good idea - yes, however probably only in a post HS Wales and West world when it would enable more express services to be run. The other way it could be useful is when passenger numbers have built up, so there's a bigger group of passengers so it improves the business case.

The benefits of a DAL are that it both shortens journey times for long distance trains and enables more local services to be run.

The business case was terrible because the cost estimate was so high - over £3bn in 2014, which is an astonishing cost, more than Hs2 per mile, assuming a ~9 mile shortcut between Exminster and NA.

Ignoring that, there are much higher priorities in Devon alone for money, which would have much better business cases. Electrification, doubling some of the Exmouth branch or the WoE line, new stations etc. Things where people live and want to go

 

[RPI]

Padstow station was the western terminus of the North Cornwall Railway which started from Halwill Junction station, which was situated on the Okehampton to Bude line.

You could also get there from Bodmin Parkway (Road) via the ex GW branch as far as Boscarne Junction then on the LSWR Bodmin North to Wadebridge line. Therefore several services in latter years direct from Bodmin Road to Padstow and after the North Cornwall line closed in October '66 services continued to run from Bodmin Road to Padstow until January '67.

I think the point being made is that Padstow could have survived in that form.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

You could also get there from Bodmin Parkway (Road) via the ex GW branch as far as Boscarne Junction then on the LSWR Bodmin North to Wadebridge line. Therefore several services in latter years direct from Bodmin Road to Padstow and after the North Cornwall line closed in October '66 services continued to run from Bodmin Road to Padstow until January '67.

I think the point being made is that Padstow could have survived in that form.

Indeed so, the reason why I mentioned the North Cornwall Railway was the town of Launceston was served by it.

 

[The Ham]

What a pointless comparison because journey times on Okehampton-Tavistock won't be run by 220's non-stop. They'll be local trains run by local DMUs, stopping at most if not all stations. The days of the ACE are *done*.

Whist it's unlikely to be 220, the line speed isn't going to be high enough to make any material noticeable difference between them and (say) a 158 or 159.

I wasn't saying that there wouldn't be local services, rather that there could be a faster service with two stops to cater for future growth.

 

[WAO]

One factor to be considered in advocating this re-opening is the severe gradient of this line, more or less from end to end, mostly worse than 1:80.

Trains would need both grunt and weight.

It is noticeable how many of lines closed in the Beeching era were steeply graded and so difficult to work.

WAO

 

[Irascible]

The gradients wouldn't be any worse than east of Exeter towards Salisbury then ( and far better than the SDR! ). One would hope that by the time anything was rebuilt there'd be new trains in the area, although as it's the south-west there's zero guarantee of that. There's not enough freight around to care about diversions.

SWR has previously run trains to Plymouth via the existing line, and dropped them because the costs were more than it was worth.

I remember that as they were dropped because Axminster loop opened & they needed the stock just to get to Exeter, but maybe I'm misremembering.

 

[HSTEd]

I must admit I am struggling to see why 20+km of track is better spent here rather than, for example, giving a railway back to a tourist hotspot like Padstow, or even to towns like Helston et al.

Both seem likely to generate more incremental revenue (and social benefit) for the capital and operating costs expended to get them.

 

[BrianW]

I must admit I am struggling to see why 20+km of track is better spent here rather than, for example, giving a railway back to a tourist hotspot like Padstow, or even to towns like Helston et al.

Both seem likely to generate more incremental revenue (and social benefit) for the capital and operating costs expended to get them.

Can that be true? Padstow a tourist hotspot? Can I picture a rebirth of an hourly or better Atlantic Coast Express full of bucket-and-spaders speeding to their second homes or AirBnB? I must be dreaming

 

[The Ham]

I must admit I am struggling to see why 20+km of track is better spent here rather than, for example, giving a railway back to a tourist hotspot like Padstow, or even to towns like Helston et al.

Both seem likely to generate more incremental revenue (and social benefit) for the capital and operating costs expended to get them.

Technically, discussion about other locations is off topic of the thread title.

You're almost certainly right that there's probably somewhere with a better business case however that's not what was asked and unless someone has the business case numbers for those other schemes it's not possible to confirm which is better.

On the face of it the DAL (with the journey time savings for a lot of services) should have wiped the floor when compared to a via Okehampton route with no trains - yet it was only ever comparable.

Whilst some might complain about the cost of the DAL which hindered it, there were plenty who favoured the via Okehampton route who were also unhappy about the cost applied to the reopening.

 

[Irascible]

In no table did the LSWR route come out on top - the one that did was either one of the DAL options or the route via Heathfield ( which is a daft thing for other reasons ). The operating cost element was enormous.

https://www.networkrail.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/West-of-Exeter-Route-Resilience-Study.pdf there's the study.

 

[The Ham]

In no table did the LSWR route come out on top - the one that did was either one of the DAL options or the route via Heathfield ( which is a daft thing for other reasons ). The operating cost element was enormous.

https://www.networkrail.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/West-of-Exeter-Route-Resilience-Study.pdf there's the study.

Having reread the report I've noticed the error I've made (which I'm surprised no one had, at the time this was discussed when the report was first written up to now).

On page 30 it talks in reference to the LSWR route a BCR of 0.82 - it's there go and look (I've highlighted in bold this in the quote below).

However, it's not the building of the route which has that value, rather just running the service (underlined in the quote below).

As such I apologise for my miss reading of the report (however again I'm still a little shocked that no one else picked me up on this).

The full wording is:

As a potential source of benefit arising from this route option, the introduction of a regular hourly planned train service operating between Plymouth and Exeter, calling all stations to Bere Alston, Tavistock, Sourton Parkway, Okehampton, Crediton and Exeter St. Davids has been assessed. The assessment and appraisal of such a service based upon current demographics and assumed trip rates has found that the transport economic benefits would fail to cover the marginal costs of train operation, with a BCR (over a 60-year period) of 0.82. Table 2 summarises the findings.

Having said that, my answer to the headline question is still yes, the business case for full reopening is better than it was.

In park as some of those marginal costs are already being paid, so there's a good chance it would be closer to 1, maybe (being slightly optimistic) nudging over 1, likewise it would be fractionally cheaper to build the line (but only a tiny fraction as it would be at most £40 million -2021 prices - out of a total cost of nearly £1bn in 2014 prices).

However, it's unlikely to beat the best DAL option (although that's still not a great business case at best getting 0.17p from every £1 of investment).

Once again, sorry for my miss reading.

 

[Bald Rick]

likewise it would be fractionally cheaper to build the line (but only a tiny fraction as it would be at most £40 million -2021 prices - out of a total cost of nearly £1bn in 2014 prices).

Building a new line from Bere Alston to Tavistock will be well north of £100m.

 

[The Ham]

Building a new line from Bere Alston to Tavistock will be well north of £100m.

Sorry, I meant the Okehampton section which cost £40 million. Obviously once (assuming that the latest announcement would actually result in it being built*) the Tavistock section is built and operating the numbers would further improve.

* if the announcement is only examples then arguably the redoubling of the WofE should be a contender for investment (depending on how it's business case stacks up compared to other schemes within the region).

 

[Farigiraf]

https://www.cornish-times.co.uk/new...ock-to-bere-alston-rail-link-announced-642446

A long-awaited vital decision to reinstate a rail link between Tavistock and Bere Alston, completing a line to Plymouth, has been announced today and welcomed as a 'huge boost to the economy and people's lives'.

Who has actually announced this?

Oh nevermind it's just Network North, got lost amongst the adverts

 

[Irascible]

On page 30 it talks in reference to the LSWR route a BCR of 0.82 - it's there go and look (I've highlighted in bold this in the quote below).

And my apologies for missing that ( it's easy to miss when you're skimming ). Also needs to be pointed out that the NR document refers to a twin track main line rather than a single track branch, although I guess proportionally the capital costs for a single track line vs the projected beneft is rather worse anyway.

Projected cost for the double track option ( do any of these include Exeter resignalling? there's no mention I can see of where the route would be controlled from and it wouldn't be Exeter as it is - I guess they were assuming wherever the bigger centre is meant to be would be active ) were £875m in 2014 prices, with 20% reduction for a properly signalled single track route. What's that in 2024 money? ( @Bald Rick ? you have a ready estimate usually ).

if the announcement is only examples then arguably the redoubling of the WofE should be a contender for investment (depending on how it's business case stacks up compared to other schemes within the region).

That is a sensible option ( or at least investing in it would be, and there's already a recent NR study to start from ) and a lot of PR could be made out of investing in the entire South-West, but it's a *thoughtful* option.

 

[Bald Rick]

Projected cost for the double track option ( do any of these include Exeter resignalling? there's no mention I can see of where the route would be controlled from and it wouldn't be Exeter as it is - I guess they were assuming wherever the bigger centre is meant to be would be active ) were £875m in 2014 prices, with 20% reduction for a properly signalled single track route. What's that in 2024 money?

Construction inflation has been +40% since 2014. Call it £1.2bn.

But thats an under estimate, in my view. EWR Bedford to Cambridge is estimated at £5bn for 50km of double track railway, along what is frankly easy ground. Okehampton to Bere Alston is 37-38 km. Then there’s the cost of upgrading the lines either end, and (probably) extra capacity at Plymouth and Exeter.

 

[Meerkat]

How much do you think the cost would go up once they had a proper look at all those cuttings and embankments?!

 

[Irascible]

How much do you think the cost would go up once they had a proper look at all those cuttings and embankments?!

I believe ( without rereading the 2014 report ) there was some allowance for some didgy earthworks. I'd be interestsd in how much allowance the made for clearance ( which isn't much of an issue for single track, mind ).

Wonder if it'd be easier to drive a line through the national park than the Chilterns.

But thats an under estimate, in my view. EWR Bedford to Cambridge is estimated at £5bn for 50km of double track railway, along what is frankly easy ground

Are land purchase costs any significant fraction of that? pretty much all open land for the completely new build at the moment, right?

The last figure someone gave me for Exeter resignalling was about £50m ( may be slightly more ) a few years ago, how have equipment renewal costs moved?

 

[Bald Rick]

Are land purchase costs any significant fraction of that?

The actual land costs, no. The process for gaining consent to build the line, including the rights to purchase the land, yes. Any new railway between Bere Alston / Tavistock / Okehampton will have to go through that process.

The last figure someone gave me for Exeter resignalling was about £50m ( may be slightly more ) a few years ago,

That seems remarkably light. Exeter controls 70 odd miles of the main line from Cogload to Totnes, with various junctions, stub ends of branches and Exeter itself etc. A live project now js the resignallig of the Portsmouth direct line from Farncombe to Petersfield. That‘s about a third of the distance with no big stations, junctions etc and is roughly £100m.

 

[The Ham]

That seems remarkably light. Exeter controls 70 odd miles of the main line from Cogload to Totnes, with various junctions, stub ends of branches and Exeter itself etc. A live project now js the resignallig of the Portsmouth direct line from Farncombe to Petersfield. That‘s about a third of the distance with no big stations, junctions etc and is roughly £100m.

A few years back the cost for just allowing trains to run to/from the Swanage branch was £3 million, so yes £50 million would appear to be very light indeed.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Now, after more than 100 postings made upon the thread discussion and having evaluated all the pros and cons put forward by contributors, the time has come to ask whether the proposal put forward in the thread title has been proved or not.

 

[irish_rail]

Now, after more than 100 postings made upon the thread discussion and having evaluated all the pros and cons put forward by contributors, the time has come to ask whether the proposal put forward in the thread title has been proved or not.

Well with Sunak already backtracking on the "network north" announcement, I suspect this will be one of the many schemes quietly forgotten about sadly.

 

[The Ham]

Well with Sunak already backtracking on the "network north" announcement, I suspect this will be one of the many schemes quietly forgotten about sadly.

Is anyone particularly surprised that is the case?

 

[Irascible]

That seems remarkably light. Exeter controls 70 odd miles of the main line from Cogload to Totnes, with various junctions, stub ends of branches and Exeter itself etc. A live project now js the resignallig of the Portsmouth direct line from Farncombe to Petersfield. That‘s about a third of the distance with no big stations, junctions etc and is roughly £100m.

Mmm. Presumably you don't *have* to do it all at once? although I've no idea when early 80s signals become life-expired. I'd pity the poor sod who's job it would be to emulate the current PSB on a new system... ( I still have PTSD from trying to persuade early 80s systems talk to late 90s ones ) but that would at least unlock some flexibility.

Now, after more than 100 postings made upon the thread discussion and having evaluated all the pros and cons put forward by contributors, the time has come to ask whether the proposal put forward in the thread title has been proved or not.

As the foundation for the initial question was flawed ( noone's mentioned a Dawlish diversion since the Dawlish sea wall was rebuilt ) and ( to nitpick ) the question was relative without mentioning what it was relative to - one assumes "two weeks ago" I guess - the answer is likely "no, the case is not much stronger". It's definitely not much stronger since 2014 given the sea wall is now much stronger.

 

[Bald Rick]

Mmm. Presumably you don't *have* to do it all at once? although I've no idea when early 80s signals become life-expired. I'd pity the poor sod who's job it would be to emulate the current PSB on a new system... ( I still have PTSD from trying to persuade early 80s systems talk to late 90s ones ) but that would at least unlock some flexibility.

Exeter was one of the last big PSB schemes done by BR. Its nearly 40 years old, and I have heard that the quality of kit used wasn’t quite as high as that used in earlier projects. However I imagine its good for a deacde or so more. Feltham (1974) is being replaced now, and Preston / Csrlisle of similar vintage are still going strong.