The 2024 US presidential election.

[johnny_t]

Lots of growing rumours going round that Biden had a TIA (a 'mini' stroke) last week in Las Vegas, rather than COVID (or alongside COVID), which would fit with a lot of the activity going on right now despite announcements he is over his COVID (not being seen at all apart from a single voice call yesterday, powers being redelegated behind the scenes, his sudden drop out and a sudden focused support for Harris, nobody there to meet Netanyahu, etc). Whilst TIAs in themselves often do not have permanent consequences, at his age and presumed stress levels the chances of a full on stroke in the time after are likely concerningly high.

Now it could be a lot of people putting two and two together and coming up with 5, but definitely something to watch as chatter levels about this are going beyond mere internet rumors that are easily quashed. If these are true and there is a long term risk to his health, then we might be seeing signs of a transition of power prior to the election.

But hopefully we will see him in the next couple of days which will silence this.

I must admit, I had a similar thought myself this morning. It feels like his presidency has already ended, not just his re-election campaign.

Basically, the Democrats, despite knowing that something is obviously wrong with Biden and that he shouldn't be running for another four years, have been trying to do a 'Weekend at Bernies' with him for as long as possible. I think the plan was always to switch out the nominee at some point, but they have suddenly run out of road and had their hand forced. My only surprise is that I didn't think the nominee would be Kamala Harris, given the absence of public profile she's been given throughout the Biden presidency.

I do agree with some of the Democrat anger though, that they have been made to go through 'fake' primaries, only for the candidate to be imposed on them. However, even people voting for Biden in the primaries must have been deluding themselves a little.

I know it may not be anything like this, but enough of the situation is sufficiently odd (most notably the not having actually seen him) that you can see why the rumour mill sparks up. A friend's Dad had Vascular Dementia and he went from 'a bit vague at times' to needing sectioning, literally overnight. Whatever it is, though, its a real shame as with a bit more honesty, and self-awareness, he could have gone out on his own terms, enjoyed a good and well-deserved retirement rather than going out this way (though that is the way for all politicians, it seems. If I were Vladimir Putin, I'd be touring the Med on my Yacht by now or if I were Donald Trump, I'd be down the golf course every day). The two-term limit is, pretty much, the only good thing about the US political system.

 

[renegademaster]

There's precedent for this in the UK, but long before the modern media circus. Churchill had a major stroke in 1953 and spent lot of his last 2 years at Chartwell while the cabinet ran the show.

 

[simonw]

I must admit, I had a similar thought myself this morning. It feels like his presidency has already ended, not just his re-election campaign.

Basically, the Democrats, despite knowing that something is obviously wrong with Biden and that he shouldn't be running for another four years, have been trying to do a 'Weekend at Bernies' with him for as long as possible. I think the plan was always to switch out the nominee at some point, but they have suddenly run out of road and had their hand forced. My only surprise is that I didn't think the nominee would be Kamala Harris, given the absence of public profile she's been given throughout the Biden presidency.

I do agree with some of the Democrat anger though, that they have been made to go through 'fake' primaries, only for the candidate to be imposed on them. However, even people voting for Biden in the primaries must have been deluding themselves a little.

I know it may not be anything like this, but enough of the situation is sufficiently odd (most notably the not having actually seen him) that you can see why the rumour mill sparks up. A friend's Dad had Vascular Dementia and he went from 'a bit vague at times' to needing sectioning, literally overnight. Whatever it is, though, its a real shame as with a bit more honesty, and self-awareness, he could have gone out on his own terms, enjoyed a good and well-deserved retirement rather than going out this way (though that is the way for all politicians, it seems. If I were Vladimir Putin, I'd be touring the Med on my Yacht by now or if I were Donald Trump, I'd be down the golf course every day). The two-term limit is, pretty much, the only good thing about the US political system.

Or the Dems played Trump and waited until after he spent the Republican convention berating Biden for his age and then replaced Biden with a much younger person. Now its Trump who is the old out of touch one.

 

[Gloster]

Personally I think that the Democrats have, depending on when it looked likely that Biden was not up to running for a second term, played a poor hand as well as they could. Let Trump and his supporters make the candidates‘ ages a big thing, let Trump be confirmed as candidate, have Biden withdraw with as much dignity as possible and replace him with someone younger.

 

[AM9]

Personally I think that the Democrats have, depending on when it looked likely that Biden was not up to running for a second term, played a poor hand as well as they could. Let Trump and his supporters make the candidates‘ ages a big thing, let Trump be confirmed as candidate, have Biden withdraw with as much dignity as possible and replace him with someone younger.

That has surel rattled Trump:

Daily Telegraph:
"Former US leader says Republicans should be 'reimbursed for fraud' as millions of dollars spent on ads aimed at the president go to waste."

Pot kettle black to the extreme there.

 

[Purple Train]

That has surel rattled Trump:

Daily Telegraph:
"Former US leader says Republicans should be 'reimbursed for fraud' as millions of dollars spent on ads aimed at the president go to waste."

Pot kettle black to the extreme there.

You'd expect Trump, of all people, to know the legal definition of fraud!

 

[AM9]

You'd expect Trump, of all people, to know the legal definition of fraud!

At least the Torygraph doesn't address him as their US peers do (i.e. President!) and call him an 'ex'.

 

[DarloRich]

HANG ON - We can say Trump is a danger to American democracy and one of the way he will demonstrate that is to try and scrap term limits on the one hand but on the other say wouldn't it be great if we scrapped term limits so Obama could run!

OBVIOUSLY Obama is a quibillion time better person than Trump but we cant have it both ways!

Also - while the 20th amendment is clear on term limits how it relates to the 12 amendment has never been tested and is not clear.

 

[edwin_m]

is the electoral college in need of reform? probably
Was it fair that Hilary lost? Probably not.

Was the election “stolen”? No, or she would not have made the phone call to Trump and conceded and done so again to her supporters- and she would have gone to court to get the result overturned.

It may sound like semantic, but imho using hyperbole such as “stolen” is not helping in turning down the rhetoric.

If any election was stolen, it was in 2000. Due to said electoral system, Gore vs W Bush came down to a few hundred votes in Florida despite Gore winning the national vote count by over half a million. The Republicans persuaded the Supreme Court to stop the process of assessing debatable voting cards ("hanging" and "pregnant chads") and I don't think we will ever know what the result would have been if it had gone ahead (where the votes destroyed?).

I think the plan was always to switch out the nominee at some point, but they have suddenly run out of road and had their hand forced. My only surprise is that I didn't think the nominee would be Kamala Harris, given the absence of public profile she's been given throughout the Biden presidency.

If that was the plan, it was extrordinarily badly executed. They would have been better preventing Biden from announcing his candidature so early in his term, or reversing his decision before the primaries, so the big names in the party could have stepped up without being seen as disloyal and created a genuine debate on the best candidate. As to planning to do the switch later, they would have been even more committed to going with Kamala than they are now, as she would have been the official VP candidate.

 

[Purple Train]

HANG ON - We can say Trump is a danger to American democracy and one of the way he will demonstrate that is to try and scrap term limits on the one hand but on the other say wouldn't it be great if we scrapped term limits so Obama could run!

OBVIOUSLY Obama is a quibillion time better person than Trump but we cant have it both ways!

Quite.

 

[AlterEgo]

Re Obama, don't think you can serve more than 2 terms. Roosevelt served 4 ( OK died on 4th) so they changed the constitution to prevent it happening again?

The Amendment only specifically bans running for election to the office of President, not succeeding to it upon death or incapacity. It's unclear whether it could be involved in the Obama VP situation, not that that is going to happen anyway.

ETA:Kamala Harris has enough nominees to be the candidate, as I expected. There will be no open convention, something which I think would have been harmful to the Dems.

 

[kristiang85]

I must admit, I had a similar thought myself this morning. It feels like his presidency has already ended, not just his re-election campaign.

Basically, the Democrats, despite knowing that something is obviously wrong with Biden and that he shouldn't be running for another four years, have been trying to do a 'Weekend at Bernies' with him for as long as possible. I think the plan was always to switch out the nominee at some point, but they have suddenly run out of road and had their hand forced. My only surprise is that I didn't think the nominee would be Kamala Harris, given the absence of public profile she's been given throughout the Biden presidency.

I do agree with some of the Democrat anger though, that they have been made to go through 'fake' primaries, only for the candidate to be imposed on them. However, even people voting for Biden in the primaries must have been deluding themselves a little.

I know it may not be anything like this, but enough of the situation is sufficiently odd (most notably the not having actually seen him) that you can see why the rumour mill sparks up. A friend's Dad had Vascular Dementia and he went from 'a bit vague at times' to needing sectioning, literally overnight. Whatever it is, though, its a real shame as with a bit more honesty, and self-awareness, he could have gone out on his own terms, enjoyed a good and well-deserved retirement rather than going out this way (though that is the way for all politicians, it seems. If I were Vladimir Putin, I'd be touring the Med on my Yacht by now or if I were Donald Trump, I'd be down the golf course every day). The two-term limit is, pretty much, the only good thing about the US political system.

Indeed. The rumour mill is in overdrive today, gonig beyond the normal crank accounts, so surely his team will have him release a video statement of some sort today (he's due back at the WH from Delaware this afternoon). If he doesn't appear, then it's definitely looking likely things are more serious with him than is being let on.

It's just so odd that the most powerful person in the world cannot be seen for nearly a week - espeically when his overall health is being questioned, surely he and his team would *want* to release a quick video to show he's still in charge, even if he's feeling a bit low with COVID? Trump certainly would.

 

[AM9]

Indeed. The rumour mill is in overdrive today, gonig beyond the normal crank accounts, so surely his team will have him release a video statement of some sort today (he's due back at the WH from Delaware this afternoon). If he doesn't appear, then it's definitely looking likely things are more serious with him than is being let on.

It's just so odd that the most powerful person in the world cannot be seen for nearly a week - espeically when his overall health is being questioned, surely he and his team would *want* to release a quick video to show he's still in charge, even if he's feeling a bit low with COVID? Trump certainly would.

Trump would have recovered by now, be it down to God's will or bleach!

 

[johnny_t]

Personally I think that the Democrats have, depending on when it looked likely that Biden was not up to running for a second term, played a poor hand as well as they could. Let Trump and his supporters make the candidates‘ ages a big thing, let Trump be confirmed as candidate, have Biden withdraw with as much dignity as possible and replace him with someone younger.

It is a subtlety, but a lot of focus has been on Biden being 'old', whereas it should really be about him being 'infirm'. There are 81 year olds that could probably do the job, but he isn't one of them. However, now that it has been focussed on age rather than ability, then it will come to bite Trump on the bum too.

 

[jon0844]

Given so many right-wingers are saying Kamala was just a DEI hire (this is their new N word for 2024) by Biden (was Biden a DEI hire under Obama then?) and even associated her with the head of the Secret Service, thus implying that women are why Trump was shot, and Kamala is a woman so they're the same. Candace Owens has gone a step further by saying the only reason she is where she is today is by sleeping her way to the top.

Their ability to create new conspiracies on the fly are quite amazing, but clearly effective.

Or are they?

I mean the MAGA base don't need to be convinced that Kamala is bad. A woman AND person of colour? Yeah, no. Hardly need to make anything else up - although I suppose they could now look into her childhood and check she's actually a US citizen. What am I saying? They're probably doing that as I speak.

But what about women and black voters? How are they feeling about a black woman being put down and considered ineligible to run a country because of those reasons alone? We can all remember how they treated Obama, but this will be a whole other level if she gets to be the candidate and (hopefully) wins.

 

[3141]

At least the Torygraph doesn't address him as their US peers do (i.e. President!) and call him an 'ex'.

I believe that in the USA all former presidents continue to be known as "President X". Americans will understand that Trump, Obama etc. aren't the current president any more. But in Britain it makes things more understandable to refer to ex-President Trump.

 

[AlterEgo]

I believe that in the USA all former presidents continue to be known as "President X".

It is done as a US-centric courtesy only, and it is not an official title. So quite appropriate for the British media to call Donald Trump "Mr Trump".

 

[DarloRich]

I mean the MAGA base don't need to be convinced that Kamala is bad. A woman AND person of colour? Yeah, no. Hardly need to make anything else up - although I suppose they could now look into her childhood and check she's actually a US citizen. What am I saying? They're probably doing that as I speak.

Farage referred to her as a black African woman. She isn't. Harris was born in the US to a Jamaican-American dad and a Tamil-Indian mum. The attack line is clear from that statement though.

 

[sor]

Personally I think that the Democrats have, depending on when it looked likely that Biden was not up to running for a second term, played a poor hand as well as they could. Let Trump and his supporters make the candidates‘ ages a big thing, let Trump be confirmed as candidate, have Biden withdraw with as much dignity as possible and replace him with someone younger.

there's an argument that the timing has worked well. The media has moved on from talking about Trump's official nomination or his VP pick, and onto Harris's breaking democratic fundraising records & the fact that Trump's big campaign message - "sleepy joe" - has now evaporated and *he's* now the ailing old guy. There are also rumours that he doesn't like his new VP pick after all.

 

[The Ham]

So it will all be about Kamala VP pick now. I am actually thinking it might not be Gavin Newshom

I've seen the suggestion be made that the VP should be Taylor Swift, as that would allow the Dems to win a landslide!

 

[birchesgreen]

I mean the MAGA base don't need to be convinced that Kamala is bad. A woman AND person of colour? Yeah, no. Hardly need to make anything else up - although I suppose they could now look into her childhood and check she's actually a US citizen. What am I saying? They're probably doing that as I speak.

Yes of course, would you expect anything else?!

I just hope they continue this nonsense, it just helps push undecided and moderate Republican voters away.

 

[jon0844]

Farage referred to her as a black African woman. She isn't. Harris was born in the US to a Jamaican-American dad and a Tamil-Indian mum. The attack line is clear from that statement though.

Ever since they implied black people working at Boeing were the reason for their problems, it seems that the thinking now is that if you aren't employing a white male, you're asking for trouble. We know what they think about immigrants and people of colour, and we know about the tradwife movement that says women should be at home having babies and bringing up babies. (As I said, DEI is the new N-Word and the perfect dogwhistle)

The question has to be what the majority of Americans believe. The MAGA crowd are long lost.

 

[AlterEgo]

Yes of course, would you expect anything else?!

I just hope they continue this nonsense, it just helps push undecided and moderate Republican voters away.

It may also motivate a lot of undecided women to come out and vote.

If Harris is to win, it has to be on a not-Trump basis. She's really not an enthusiastic candidate and she has to hope Trump makes some errors between now and November. She's a terrible speaker.

Hopefully they get the VP pick right.

 

[birchesgreen]

It may also motivate a lot of undecided women to come out and vote.

If Harris is to win, it has to be on a not-Trump basis. She's really not an enthusiastic candidate and she has to hope Trump makes some errors between now and November. She's a terrible speaker.

Hopefully they get the VP pick right.

I think she needs to do a Starmer, be the boring professional safe option.

 

[jon0844]

It may also motivate a lot of undecided women to come out and vote.

I hope so too, but sadly turnouts seem so poor these days as people have become disillusioned and convinced that every candidate is awful.

As we saw in the UK, the alternative might not be perfect but you can't really think Labour vs Tory or Democrat vs Republican are basically the same!

I think she needs to do a Starmer, be the boring professional safe option.

Yes, the adult in the room.

We need more adults in the room.

 

[Busaholic]

Yes she most certainly did and there extant clips of her saying exactly that. Various media personalities have also pointed the hypocrisy out with comments such as “We are getting to the stage that the other side is going to say “”The election was stolen unless they win”” which is not good”. I will post links tomorrow if you can’t find them.

I'm not interested in what she did or didn't say at the time, it's quite irrelevant now. All I know is that she didn't encourage her supporters to storm the Capitol, attempt to get the result overturned, or threaten her nominated Vice President with death if he'd failed to agree with her.

 

[edwin_m]

I believe that in the USA all former presidents continue to be known as "President X". Americans will understand that Trump, Obama etc. aren't the current president any more. But in Britain it makes things more understandable to refer to ex-President Trump.

Indeed, although I wonder if that is now dying out. The judge in one of his trials pointedly referred to him as "Mr Trump", and anyone who refers to him as President could be open to the accusation of believing the big lie.

 

[AlterEgo]

Indeed, although I wonder if that is now dying out. The judge in one of his trials pointedly referred to him as "Mr Trump", and anyone who refers to him as President could be open to the accusation of believing the big lie.

That is a very formal setting and you would not address someone in court by a courtesy title, only by one which they actually hold.

 

[ValentaFan1974]

Biden to make address at 8pm ET tomorrow (1am Thursday UK) - I reckon he’ll immediately step down so Kamala Harris takes over and shows the US what they can have instead of Trump. It’s a perfect plan for the Democrats to get their candidate elected.

 

[jfollows]

Biden to make address at 8pm ET tomorrow (1am Thursday UK) - I reckon he’ll immediately step down so Kamala Harris takes over and shows the US what they can have instead of Trump. It’s a perfect plan for the Democrats to get their candidate elected.

He won't step down, firstly because the Republicans are calling for him to do so, and secondly because it will be much easier for Harris to campaign if she's not President. Oh, and thirdly Biden can take the blame for anything in the least bit negative and divert the flak away from her.