Do you think that the UK switching to electric vehicles is realistic?

[cactustwirly]

Don't forget the old adage - you can strip down a Land Rover in the field with a box of spanners, but with a Toyota Land Cruiser you don't need to.

EVs have far, far less to go wrong.

But that's a slightly false comparison anyway. ULEZ for example could force you to update your ICE - it's modern vs. old cars, not EV vs ICE.

Except the electrics can break writing off the whole car.

Everything is screen based these days, if one was to break it's very expensive to replace.

Yes, I'd expect to see urban ZEZs becoming very common in the coming 20 years or so. But there will still be places to drive ICEs. I suspect they'll never be totally banned from everywhere - they'll just go away on their own.



While the Leaf isn't a particularly good EV due to the lack of battery cooling, there's still less to go wrong on one than a 10 year old ICE.

Like what? You'd have to be very unlucky to get a 10 year old car which needs something repairing that isn't wear and tear.

The Leafs point of failure is significantly more expensive than anything on an ICE

 

[trebor79]

i am very below average mileage. But the lease costs are beginning to make me think. That £140/month is £1,680 per year - compare that to depreciation on a similarly new car. OK so my mileage is so low that I am probably seeing fuel/energy costs as an insignificant part of the equation. But it is something to think about for many. I don't like owning things on the never never (lease) but instead of steep depreciation that is a thought.

Well of course you don't own the car when you lease. It's more of a long term rental. It wouldn't work for me as I do big mileages, but there are some very attractive deals for those on lower mileages. Arval also lease used vehicles which brings the price down even further.
If the lease cost is equal too or lower than the cost of running a banger (or even slightly higher) it's an easy choice.
If it doesn't work for you don't renew the lease and buy a banger.

 

[jon0844]

Yes, I'd expect to see urban ZEZs becoming very common in the coming 20 years or so. But there will still be places to drive ICEs. I suspect they'll never be totally banned from everywhere - they'll just go away on their own.

There's nothing to suggest ICE cars will be banned. They'll just become more expensive to fuel and harder to fuel with fewer petrol stations.

Clearly the only ICE cars left on the road will become classics, not Mr Anti EV who still brags about being able to fill up in 2 minutes and drive 800 miles without a break. Filling up will likely involve a long drive and a hefty hit to the wallet, so you'd really really need to like your car.

I suspect most people who keep an ICE will do very little mileage and own an EV for day to day driving.

 

[InkyScrolls]

Have you driven any EVs? There absolutely nothing at all that would of make me go back to ICE. And I was a petrol head.

Ah, the noise. Yeah you get over it quickly.

I have, and I have no desire to again! But that isn't a statement against EVs in general, just my personal preference.

 

[GusB]

Clearly the only ICE cars left on the road will become classics, not Mr Anti EV who still brags about being able to fill up in 2 minutes and drive 800 miles without a break. Filling up will likely involve a long drive and a hefty hit to the wallet, so you'd really really need to like your car.

As ICE cars become rarer, those who are after "modern classics" will inevitably push prices up, so the chances of getting a cheap old banger will reduce anyway. I follow a few classic car channels on YouTube and it's amazing to see cars that didn't sell particularly well rising in value because of their rarity.

On the other hand, as more people buy new EVs the second-hand market will be in much better health in a few years.

On the subject of driving for x00 miles without a break, that's pure foolishness and it shouldn't be done whatever type of car you drive!

 

[E27007]

I'm just over a year in to EV ownership (Volkswagen ID:3).

It's been a pleasure to drive, especially around town. We do the odd long journey (2/3 times a year) which requires charing en-route and have so far not had any issues with charger unavailability. Being able to charge at home is great and the shopping centre car park near me also offers free charging and £2 to park all day on Sunday.

It's been great... until it wasn't. Drove approximately 120 miles on one Sunday in July, parked on the drive and went in to the house. A couple of hours later came out to use the car again to be greeted with this message. The car wouldn't move at all and had to be lifted on to a tow truck and has now been at the dealership since 22nd July with no estimate for getting it back

[Image shows error message on dashboard saying 'HV battery: risk of fire! Pull over safely ASAP and leave the vehicle. Call emergency services!']

View attachment 164518

What is the fault?, Low coolant for the battery system or faulty circulating pump for the coolant system?

 

[Bald Rick]

Mind you I wonder how many EV owners will be shocked when they start to pay Road Fund Licence properly.

I doubt any will be shocked.

£10 in year 1, then £190 a year. plus £410 per year where the list price is more than £40k.

Except the electrics can break writing off the whole car.

That can happen with any car.

 

[SWT_USER]

What is the fault?, Low coolant for the battery system or faulty circulating pump for the coolant system?

I'm not sure yet - VW are waiting for their High Voltage battery technician to get around to it.

This IS an issue with EV's at the moment - not enough people qualified to fix them. This is costing VW £££ as I've had a hire car provided by them for a month now - which is at least a plug in Hybrid so I can do the majority of my driving on electric still.

 

[E27007]

I'm not sure yet - VW are waiting for their High Voltage battery technician to get around to it.

This IS an issue with EV's at the moment - not enough people qualified to fix them. This is costing VW £££ as I've had a hire car provided by them for a month now - which is at least a plug in Hybrid so I can do the majority of my driving on electric still.

Probably a one-day seminar conversion course, health and safety of working with HV and a couple of hours of diagnostic procedures on a laptop

 

[Harpers Tate]

Corrosion - I am old enough to remember ten year old cars had rusty wings etc. All praise Galvanising.

(Off Topic) I'm old enough to remember my father's three year old Escort (owned from new) with much visible rust.

 

[AM9]

I am considering a switch to 2litre Diesel from circa 2015. But I just know the goalposts will be moved.

Mind you I wonder how many EV owners will be shocked when they start to pay Road Fund Licence properly.

I think that would already have been taken on board by those that chose EVs.

Road pricing is inevitable (there was a thread around that on here somewhere). But I suspect ICE cars will be subject to the same road pricing and without fuel tax being reduced.

Which is the way it should be, - after all, ICVs will need to leave roads asap so nudges like that are the way to go.

I recall Parrafin being available at most petrol stations back in he 1960s. I have no idea where I would get it now. So i can see that one day petrol will be hard to acquire- long way off though.

Paraffin became a 'dirty' way to heat homes so it was a) discouraged by reducing the availability of heaters that used it and b) became so low in demand that suppliers lost interest. Petrol and diesel will go the same way.

This will be the big factor I suspect - if a battery generally becomes a boring component unlike an ECE or suspension then its one less problem to worry about. Availability of chargers is bound to increase over time.

Batteries will become commodity items and with the new government's determination to shake up planning processes, the charging station industry will stop hiding behind planning delays and they will be created in sufficient numbers to support the number of vehicles on the road.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Paraffin became a 'dirty' way to heat homes so it was a) discouraged by reducing the availability of heaters that used it and b) became so low in demand that suppliers lost interest. Petrol and diesel will go the same way.

You can still get it in B&Q and the likes, it's used for greenhouse heaters and old style camping lanterns.

 

[Noddy]

I think the problem with battery repair is that the infrastructure isn't currently there. There's undoubtedly a cottage industry of specialist repairers out there but they don't by and large have access to new components from the battery manufacturers so they have a very limited capacity achieved by component recovery from wrecks, even then they are competing with people looking at getting the battery packs for home batteries. It's not really in the battery or car manufacturers interests to increase the supply of components either when they have a new vehicle market that is being driven by government grants and legislation.

If you’re repairing a battery (ie replacing modules or even individual cells) you don’t want brand new modules, you want ones in a similar condition to the existing modules so you can correctly balance the whole system. Hence why this ‘cottage’ industry will become the mainstream for out of warranty battery repairs.

 

[Bald Rick]

Interestingly, tonight I have completed my bingo card of public service/ ‘non car’ EVs.

Saw an EV police car tonight, a Kia EV6.

That completes the card which had Fire Engine, Ambulance, Bus, Coach, Bin Lorry, Skip Lorry, HGV, post office van. Seen all of them as EVs now.

Oh and a Milk Float

 

[trebor79]

Oh and a Milk Float

Very good! Made me chuckle.

 

[paul1609]

If you’re repairing a battery (ie replacing modules or even individual cells) you don’t want brand new modules, you want ones in a similar condition to the existing modules so you can correctly balance the whole system. Hence why this ‘cottage’ industry will become the mainstream for out of warranty battery repairs.

If you want to replace cells or modules on a recent vehicle (less than say three years old) because of accident or water damage etc. your best chance of getting a voltage balance is with a new module or cell. The requirement for battery components for nearly new vehicles far outweighs the supply. That is why so many in theory repairable evs are being written off (the value of the car is less than the cost of a whole replacement battery from the manufacturers) and is one driver of the recent insurance premium hikes.

 

[E27007]

If you’re repairing a battery (ie replacing modules or even individual cells) you don’t want brand new modules, you want ones in a similar condition to the existing modules so you can correctly balance the whole system. Hence why this ‘cottage’ industry will become the mainstream for out of warranty battery repairs.

Correct, I have refurbished hybrid packs , DIY "not for profit". Grading/testing a "battery stick", the hybrid battery comprised 20 "sticks" where each stick is 6 cells welded together.
To grade (actually measure capacity and internal resistance ) a stick would be connected to an intelligent charger/discharger and discharged then charged for six cycles at a constant current of 10 Amps, it was a time-consuming labour-intensive project, each stick taking seven hours to complete the six cycles, the intelligent charger unit logged and gave a readout of capacity for each cycle point
With several chargers "on the go" it took 4 days to grade all twenty sticks.
If EVs packs are to be refurbished , it probably needs to be a automated system with minimal (EXPENSIVE) human labour in the process, simply hook up the EV pack to a computerised system in control of a set of testing programme of multiple charge/discharge cycles , a process which may take several days.
Alternatively ,the EV may contain built-in diagnostics within the battery monitoring system of the vehicle, such diagnostics being software which monitor and logs in operation each component of the battery, effectively grading each component of the battery, then refurbishment of the EV battery would be replacing components identified by the battery monitor with compatible replacements.

I'm not sure yet - VW are waiting for their High Voltage battery technician to get around to it.

This IS an issue with EV's at the moment - not enough people qualified to fix them. This is costing VW £££ as I've had a hire car provided by them for a month now - which is at least a plug in Hybrid so I can do the majority of my driving on electric still.

So VW are not exactly giving you red-carpet VIP treatment to repair your car, if the fault displayed by the dashboard is genuine, there is a real risk of a vehicle fire, what precautions have VW taken in storage of your vehicle? I hope they are following an official health and safety procedure, physically isolating the vehicle in the case of the worst scenario.

 

[Noddy]

If you want to replace cells or modules on a recent vehicle (less than say three years old) because of accident or water damage etc. your best chance of getting a voltage balance is with a new module or cell. The requirement for battery components for nearly new vehicles far outweighs the supply. That is why so many in theory repairable evs are being written off (the value of the car is less than the cost of a whole replacement battery from the manufacturers) and is one driver of the recent insurance premium hikes.

Battery packs within three years will be in warranty or covered by insurance in the event of an accident, so dealt with by the dealer/insurer (who will undoubtedly send it to a central location) and paid for by the manufacturer or insurance.

In Post 3401 you appeared to be claiming that the battery replacement ‘cottage industry’ won’t succeed or grow because to quote you they ‘don't by and large have access to new components from the battery manufacturers so they have a very limited capacity achieved by component recovery from wrecks, even then they are competing with people looking at getting the battery packs for home batteries. It's not really in the battery or car manufacturers interests to increase the supply of components either when they have a new vehicle market that is being driven by government grants and legislation.’

I’m not sure why you are now talking about cars that are less than three years old given that independent garages have historically never really dealt with nearly new cars that are still under warranty.

For reference a typical EV battery pack has many modules (for example my VW MEB standard range 62kwh pack has 9 modules, the long range version has 12) and hundreds of cells, so you can do a number of replacement jobs from only one pack.

 

[AM9]

You can still get it in B&Q and the likes, it's used for greenhouse heaters and old style camping lanterns.

I suspected that, so it seems that DIY centres have taken over from every 'fork 'andles' ironmonger shop that had a tank of pink, blue or green paraffin round the back, from which our 1 gallon cans were filled.

 

[SWT_USER]

So VW are not exactly giving you red-carpet VIP treatment to repair your car, if the fault displayed by the dashboard is genuine, there is a real risk of a vehicle fire, what precautions have VW taken in storage of your vehicle? I hope they are following an official health and safety procedure, physically isolating the vehicle in the case of the worst scenario.

They've told me its quarantined, which I take to mean it is isolated in some way.

They are definitely not rushing to fix it, but I'm not constantly on at them either as I have the courtesy car so I don't desperately need it back.

 

[jon0844]

Battery packs within three years will be in warranty or covered by insurance in the event of an accident, so dealt with by the dealer/insurer (who will undoubtedly send it to a central location) and paid for by the manufacturer or insurance.

In Post 3401 you appeared to be claiming that the battery replacement ‘cottage industry’ won’t succeed or grow because to quote you they ‘don't by and large have access to new components from the battery manufacturers so they have a very limited capacity achieved by component recovery from wrecks, even then they are competing with people looking at getting the battery packs for home batteries. It's not really in the battery or car manufacturers interests to increase the supply of components either when they have a new vehicle market that is being driven by government grants and legislation.’

I’m not sure why you are now talking about cars that are less than three years old given that independent garages have historically never really dealt with nearly new cars that are still under warranty.

For reference a typical EV battery pack has many modules (for example my VW MEB standard range 62kwh pack has 9 modules, the long range version has 12) and hundreds of cells, so you can do a number of replacement jobs from only one pack.

There are more and more companies getting involved in the designing and manufacturing of batteries as most countries want to become less dependent on China. The USA is certainly moving fast in this direction, and I expect many European countries are too.

From that I'd be shocked if there aren't plans to create many businesses to to repair and service batteries. Let's say the outer shell is damaged in an accident and it is considered a risk to use; there may be perfectly safe modules inside and all that's needed is to put into a new shell and do the necessary diagnostics and safety checks. Insurers will probably be looking at investing in this to get costs down. LFP batteries are less dangerous too, so there will be less risk when doing work on them.

And there's always going to be the market in taking batteries from scrapped vehicles and giving them a second life.

Smart people will be looking at the money making opportunities now, while others will put their head in the sand and hope EVs go away.

 

[WelshBluebird]

Except the electrics can break writing off the whole car.

Everything is screen based these days, if one was to break it's very expensive to replace.

But again - that has basically nothing to do with EV's these days and is just all modern cars.

 

[Peter Sarf]

Interestingly, tonight I have completed my bingo card of public service/ ‘non car’ EVs.

Saw an EV police car tonight, a Kia EV6.

That completes the card which had Fire Engine, Ambulance, Bus, Coach, Bin Lorry, Skip Lorry, HGV, post office van. Seen all of them as EVs now.

Oh and a Milk Float

Just this morning a Police car drifted along our road (a rare event). Now you mention it - it was electric !.

As for milk floats - I have not seen one for about a decade but I occasionally hear one in the wee small hours go past the house.

Correct, I have refurbished hybrid packs , DIY "not for profit". Grading/testing a "battery stick", the hybrid battery comprised 20 "sticks" where each stick is 6 cells welded together.
To grade (actually measure capacity and internal resistance ) a stick would be connected to an intelligent charger/discharger and discharged then charged for six cycles at a constant current of 10 Amps, it was a time-consuming labour-intensive project, each stick taking seven hours to complete the six cycles, the intelligent charger unit logged and gave a readout of capacity for each cycle point
With several chargers "on the go" it took 4 days to grade all twenty sticks.
If EVs packs are to be refurbished , it probably needs to be a automated system with minimal (EXPENSIVE) human labour in the process, simply hook up the EV pack to a computerised system in control of a set of testing programme of multiple charge/discharge cycles , a process which may take several days.
Alternatively ,the EV may contain built-in diagnostics within the battery monitoring system of the vehicle, such diagnostics being software which monitor and logs in operation each component of the battery, effectively grading each component of the battery, then refurbishment of the EV battery would be replacing components identified by the battery monitor with compatible replacements.


So VW are not exactly giving you red-carpet VIP treatment to repair your car, if the fault displayed by the dashboard is genuine, there is a real risk of a vehicle fire, what precautions have VW taken in storage of your vehicle? I hope they are following an official health and safety procedure, physically isolating the vehicle in the case of the worst scenario.

This reminds me of the fun and games I play testing and grading my NiMh cells (AAA, AA, C & D). A right old chore - I now have a basic tester (digital voltmeter that draws a load). I just check each cell when the device they are in sulks and pull the weakest cell. Not really suitable for an EV of course but indicates the effort that goes into checking.

Monitoring each cell in the ICE while the whole pack is in use in the ICE might allow identifying a faulty cell but one would still have to find a matching cell from a scrap car.

In the case of @SWT_USER 's VW I suppose the garage might be waiting for a suitable cell to turn up. But it sounds like the basic diagnosis has not happened yet and in any case the car is so new the garage is probably procrastinating over the cost of writing off the battery (and car maybe) !. At least the removed battery cells would then become part of the spares pool.

---

In terms of battery spares availability I can see a natural balance evolving where enough older EVs are written off until there are enough spare second-hand cells in the market/system. The age and value at which cars with faulty batteries are written off will settle at a level dependent on the availability and cost of brand new battery packs vs demand down stream for second hand packs.

 

[Energy]

In the case of @SWT_USER 's VW I suppose the garage might be waiting for a suitable cell to turn up.

It may of course not be the cells but the battery controller, and they are just struggling to get stock.

 

[Harpo]

I'm not sure I agree with the suggestion that EVs have far less to go wrong. I had a VW diesel that lasted 10 years before I sold it on. The bits that needed replacing outside of routine maintenance were tyres, brake discs, road springs and air-con compressor. The power train just kept going.

 

[Bald Rick]

I'm not sure I agree with the suggestion that EVs have far less to go wrong. I had a VW diesel that lasted 10 years before I sold it on. The bits that needed replacing outside of routine maintenance were tyres, brake discs, road springs and air-con compressor. The power train just kept going.

I also had a VW diesel (Golf GTD) that lasted 8 years before I sold it on. The bits that needed replacing that wouldn’t have needed replacing on an EV in that time were brake pads (twice) and discs (once), exhaust gas recirculation unit, oil, oil filter and sump drain plug (three times), engine air filter (three times), fuel filter (three times), engine coolant (three times), water pump belt, camshaft timing belt (once, but should have been twice), and the alternator (with the battery as a consequence)

That little lot cost me around £4k, and the inconvenience of several additional trips to the garage, and one RAC call out.

 

[paul1609]

You don't say what mileage you achieved in your 8 years but I believe that the 12 volt battery life in a e golf is around 4 years or 40 to 50k. Having one fitted and coded at a VFW dealership will cost just under a grand. It's a deep charge cycle battery rather than a high crank current battery so you can't just fit a Halfords £70 special. When it fails the car is immobilised. Some Porsche and BMW models are over £2k fitted.

 

[Harpers Tate]

I'm not sure I agree with the suggestion that EVs have far less to go wrong. I had a VW diesel that lasted 10 years before I sold it on. The bits that needed replacing outside of routine maintenance were tyres, brake discs, road springs and air-con compressor. The power train just kept going.

I don't think anyone would contend that either 100% of EVs won't have anything go wrong*, nor that any ICE definitely will. Nothing is so black and white. It's a matter of playing the odds. And the odds are that an EV is less likely to have something wear out to the point of replacement, than an ICE. And that includes the main battery.

* Whatever your defininition of "go wrong"

 

[E27007]

I don't think anyone would contend that either 100% of EVs won't have anything go wrong*, nor that any ICE definitely will. Nothing is so black and white. It's a matter of playing the odds. And the odds are that an EV is less likely to have something wear out to the point of replacement, than an ICE. And that includes the main battery.

* Whatever your defininition of "go wrong"

The "odds of something going wrong", in the case of the ZEV, the mandatory warranty allows degradation from 100% to 70% in 8 years, effectively the buyer is accepting at purchase the ZEV battery will diminish significantly by the mid-point of the vehicle life.
The buyer of an IC car, the buyer accepts the car will degrade over time but not by such a significant margin at the mid-life point of the vehicle, a manufacturer whose IC car could lose 30% of its engine power and decrease mpg by 30% at 8 years of age would not have many customers

You don't say what mileage you achieved in your 8 years but I believe that the 12 volt battery life in a e golf is around 4 years or 40 to 50k. Having one fitted and coded at a VFW dealership will cost just under a grand. It's a deep charge cycle battery rather than a high crank current battery so you can't just fit a Halfords £70 special. When it fails the car is immobilised. Some Porsche and BMW models are over £2k fitted.

A retail commodity , a car battery £70 to £100 becomes a £1000 special item, what exactly is so special about the technology of this £1000 battery without which the car cannot function?

 

[bspahh]

The bits that needed replacing that wouldn’t have needed replacing on an EV in that time were brake pads (twice) and discs (once)

I've seen people complain about brake discs rusting within a few years, typically when they hardly use the car.

Is that because the car used the main brake discs for the parking brake, so you get rust on the exposed bits of the disc, and not under the pads?

With an electric car, you might only need to use the brake discs for an emergency stop. Do the discs still rust?