Russia invades Ukraine

[DustyBin]

Not this again, since Feb 2022, the media has suggested he has every illness known to man!

He must have a very good doctor!

Correct, but without reading too much into it he did look particularly rough!

 

[Pete_uk]

I think when he pops his cloggs there will be a power struggle that could rumble on, even possibly ending in a small civil war.

 

[ainsworth74]

I think when he pops his cloggs there will be a power struggle that could rumble on, even possibly ending in a small civil war.

Who doesn't love the idea of a civil war in a nuclear armed state? I reckon a not inconsiderable amount of US reluctance to give Ukraine the tools to get the job done is because rightly or wrongly they worry about that scenario!

 

[DustyBin]

Who doesn't love the idea of a civil war in a nuclear armed state? I reckon a not inconsiderable amount of US reluctance to give Ukraine the tools to get the job done is because rightly or wrongly they worry about that scenario!

I could actually see the US/The West backing a side in such a scenario, assuming there’s a “good guy”.

 

[Killingworth]

I could actually see the US/The West backing a side in such a scenario, assuming there’s a “good guy”.

Our intervention in Russia after WW1 may offer a few pointers as to how well that could go.

 

[Doctor Pepper]

The best thing for the world right now would be if Putin were to “accidentally” fall out of a window. I hear that’s a common mishap in Russia right now.

 

[OhNoAPacer]

I could actually see the US/The West backing a side in such a scenario, assuming there’s a “good guy”.

I think in Russian politics all you can hope for is a 'not as bad as the other guy' guy.

 

[brad465]

I could actually see the US/The West backing a side in such a scenario, assuming there’s a “good guy”.

In this era there isn't a civil war that goes by without outside involvement on one or both sides.

I've always thought if the US entered another civil war, that would automatically be a World War, as there is no way the rest of the world is going to just leave them to sort their differences out alone. If Russia entered another civil war that could easily be a World War too. There may even be countries like China who see it as an opportunity to annex more land for themselves.

 

[DustyBin]

Our intervention in Russia after WW1 may offer a few pointers as to how well that could go.

True, and it’s a remote possibility in truth. The situation would have to be extremely serious (i.e. a threat to global security), but I don’t suspect we’d back the losing side this time.

I think in Russian politics all you can hope for is a 'not as bad as the other guy' guy.

Well, yes…

In this era there isn't a civil war that goes by without outside involvement on one or both sides.

I've always thought if the US entered another civil war, that would automatically be a World War, as there is no way the rest of the world is going to just leave them to sort their differences out alone. If Russia entered another civil war that could easily be a World War too. There may even be countries like China who see it as an opportunity to annex more land for themselves.

In a hypothetical US civil war, I think it’s equally likely that everyone would choose to stay well out of it, or at least avoid direct conflict with either side.

I hadn’t really thought about it, but in the event of the break up of the Russian Federation you could well be right. I think some kind of Chinese “involvement” is highly likely.

 

[Trackman]

I've always thought if the US entered another civil war, that would automatically be a World War, as there is no way the rest of the world is going to just leave them to sort their differences out alone.

So-called time traveller John Titor springs to mind.

John Titor - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

According to Titor, this civil war would end in 2015 with a brief but intense World War III[specify], which Titor referred to as "N Day". He specified Washington, D.C. and Jacksonville, Florida as cities that would be hit in the exchange, and said that after the war, Omaha, Nebraska would be the new U.S. capital. Titor did not detail the exact causes of this World War III scenario, but in one post he said that the hostilities were led by "border clashes and overpopulation".[8] He also pointed to the contemporary Arab-Israeli conflict not as a cause of the war, but as a milestone that precedes it.

 

[Cloud Strife]

I've always thought if the US entered another civil war, that would automatically be a World War, as there is no way the rest of the world is going to just leave them to sort their differences out alone.

I'm actually not sure about this, because who would have the military capability or will to intervene there? Having said that, with most of the wealth concentrated in "Democrat" states, I think any civil war wouldn't last particularly long.

If Russia entered another civil war that could easily be a World War too. There may even be countries like China who see it as an opportunity to annex more land for themselves.

If Russia enters another civil war, I'd bet huge amounts of money on China annexing Siberia. European Russia probably goes it alone, while many other republics would just end up independent and/or as puppet states.

 

[edwin_m]

I'm actually not sure about this, because who would have the military capability or will to intervene there? Having said that, with most of the wealth concentrated in "Democrat" states, I think any civil war wouldn't last particularly long.

I agree. If nothing else, nobody will want to be on the wrong side of whoever wins and ends up in control of the worlds most powerful military.

 

[ainsworth74]

I think we're starting to wander a bit off the subject here! A potential US Second Civil War is definitely not on topic for this thread!

 

[DerekC]

Putin didn't look very well in his latest video.

He looked stressed, which is worrying since Russia seems to be gaining the upper hand on the ground. Inside the Kremlin he may be in a difficult position. His nuclear bluff has been called again and he may be coming under pressure. He may having to decide whether to risk his position and probably his life and keep fudging, or to go to his bunker and order a nuclear strike. Even for him, that might cause sleepless nights.

 

[Scotrail314209]

I’ve not been paying much attention to this recently, but the last couple days have really made me scared and particularly stressed out, especially since the threat seems much more serious than before.

Is there any way of coping or any way this could just be sabre rattling? Because right now it doesn’t feel like it

 

[DustyBin]

I’ve not been paying much attention to this recently, but the last couple days have really made me scared and particularly stressed out, especially since the threat seems much more serious than before.

Is there any way of coping or any way this could just be sabre rattling? Because right now it doesn’t feel like it

It’s more sabre rattling, chill.

What’s Putin actually done? He’s launched a new, particularly large and expensive missile at a Ukrainian city to show that he can defeat Ukraine’s air defences and, possibly rather more optimistically, those of Western countries supporting Ukraine. Yes, this type of missile can deliver a nuclear payload, but so can some of the other missiles he’s been firing into Ukraine since the war began. He had to do “something” following the use of ATACMS and Storm Shadow inside Russia, and this was it.

My biggest concern is that Putin appears to have scored a propaganda victory with this little stunt. People seem genuinely rattled as if this is a significant escalation, which it isn’t in my opinion. Zelensky hasn’t helped himself either with his erroneous initial claim that it was an ICBM which immediately makes people think “strategic nuke”. Coupled with the Russian ambassador to the UK’s claim that we’re now directly involved in the conflict, I can see why people are nervous, but this is exactly what the Russians want.

The usual caveats apply when discussing nuclear armed despots, but try and calm down. I hope that helps!

 

[adc82140]

Agree with the above. Things to remember:

Russia has had the ability to strike Europe with both conventional and nuclear arms for the last 5 decades. But they haven't. The range of this "new" weapon is nothing new, despite the screaming of the tabloids.

Iskander weapons, which are nuclear capable, have been fired at Ukraine since the start of this conflict. So again, nothing new.

ATACMS and Storm Shadows have been fired by Ukraine at what Putin considers to be Russia for over a year, and across the border into internationally recognised Russia since May. So again, nothing new.

Any apocalyptic outbursts by the likes of Medvedev are to be ignored. He became a threat to Putin, so has to resort to appearing to be a lunatic in order to save his own skin, and see off his own defenstration.

The tabloids seem to have developed this habit of parroting the lines of various Russian propagandists. This basically does Putin's job for him. Fear sells red top newspapers.

This is all jostling for position ahead of Trump's presidency. There will be peace talks, and both sides want as much leverage a possible.

As for the UK being directly involved, I distinctly remember in 2022 the Russian ambassador claiming we were directly involved then as well. The man is a serial liar, and he's not even listened to in Moscow.

 

[Ivor]

I’ve not been paying much attention to this recently, but the last couple days have really made me scared and particularly stressed out, especially since the threat seems much more serious than before.

Is there any way of coping or any way this could just be sabre rattling? Because right now it doesn’t feel like it

I think post #8,266 & #8,267 are great responses. I have family in West Ukraine & friends in East although West not as badly attacked as the East of the country they too acknowledge Putin & his mouthy cronies as dangerous but as @adc82140 stated there’s a lot of jostling for position re heading towards the Trump administration.

A side note, how on earth we have not kicked out the Russian Ambassador in London I do not know irrespective of the reaction Putin will put out if we did, which we won’t.

In life in general I believe it’s the ones that don’t say a lot in conflict we need to worry about & this Russian lot are constantly mouthing off.

 

[Doctor Pepper]

I’ve not been paying much attention to this recently, but the last couple days have really made me scared and particularly stressed out, especially since the threat seems much more serious than before.

Is there any way of coping or any way this could just be sabre rattling? Because right now it doesn’t feel like it

Putin has been trotting out the "You'd better watch out, I've got Nukes" line for years now. It's become almost comical. And the tabloids have been trotting out the "WWIII is coming! " line for years now too. It's become like Covid masks, that they keep trying convince us are coming back every winter, by trotting out some so-called "expert" who says we need them.

 

[najaB]

A side note, how on earth we have not kicked out the Russian Ambassador in London I do not know irrespective of the reaction Putin will put out if we did, which we won’t.

If there's no Russian ambassador in London, who can be invited to have a chat with the Foreign Secretary as and when we want to?

 

[Ivor]

If there's no Russian ambassador in London, who can be invited to have a chat with the Foreign Secretary as and when we want to?

The rhetoric he trots out he doesn’t deserve any courtesy of a chat, my view only of course.

 

[Pete_uk]

There are plenty of brick walls to talk to

 

[brad465]

The Civil War in Syria appears to be hotting up again as rebels (who are being backed by Turkey) are making advances:

Syrian rebels launch strikes on Aleppo

Islamists’ offensive is biggest challenge to Assad regime for years

on.ft.com

Islamist rebels have launched attacks on Aleppo, according to state media, killing four people in Syria’s second city as they intensify their offensive against areas held by President Bashar al-Assad’s regime.

The rebels will no doubt be taking advantage of Russia being preoccupied in Ukraine, combined with Israel causing Assad and Hizbollah problems. Putin in particular will really not want to have to divert more resource back to Syria at a critical time for him in Ukraine.

 

[brad465]

Putin's gonna need a bigger table:

Ukraine says it killed Russian general Igor Kirillov in Moscow

Ukrainian sources tell the BBC the country's security service was behind the killings.

www.bbc.co.uk

A high-ranking general in the Russian armed forces and his assistant have been killed in Moscow by Ukraine's security service, a Ukrainian source has told the BBC.
Lt Gen Igor Kirillov, head of the Nuclear, Biological, Chemical Defence Forces (NBC), was outside a residential block early on Tuesday when a device hidden in a scooter was detonated remotely, Russia's Investigative Committee said.
A source in Ukraine's SBU security service claimed Kirillov was "a legitimate target" and alleging he had carried out war crimes.
On Monday, the SBU charged Kirillov in absentia, saying on Telegram, external that he was "responsible for the mass use of banned chemical weapons". The Ukrainian government has not yet commented on the general's death.
Pictures from the scene showed the badly damaged entrance to a building with scorch marks on the walls and a number of windows blown out. Two body bags could also be seen on the street.
The block was cordoned off on Tuesday morning as Russian investigators continued combing the area.
In October, the UK placed sanctions on Kirillov, saying he had overseen the use of chemical weapons in Ukraine and acted as a "significant mouthpiece for Kremlin disinformation".
Ukraine's SBU has claimed Russia used chemical weapons more than 4,800 times under the general's leadership.
Moscow denies the allegations.

Russia's Investigative Committee said it had "opened a criminal case into the murder of two servicemen".
"Investigators, forensic experts and operational services are working at the scene," it said.
"Investigative actions and operational search activities are being carried out aimed at establishing all the circumstances of the crime."
Russian state news agencies reported the explosive device - which killed 54-year-old Kirillov and his aide in Ryazansky Avenue in the south-east of the city - had an explosive force equivalent to 300g of TNT.
They added that bomb experts and specialist search dogs had inspected the surrounding area and no other explosives had been found.
Experts have told BBC Verify that having looked at images from the scene it appears the explosion was caused by an Improvised Explosive Device (IED), a type of homemade bomb which usually contains easily obtainable components, such as nails or glass.

 

[Cloud Strife]

Putin's gonna need a bigger table:

This might prove to be one of the most effective weapons Ukraine has in this war. They certainly have the resources to carry out assassinations, and although Ukrainians speak with accents in Russian, they can pretty much blend into the background in Moscow where Russian is spoken with hundreds of accents.

 

[DustyBin]

Putin's annual address is err.... Interesting!

He says he'd like to challenge the US to a "technological duel" to see whether they can shoot down an Oreshnik missile aimed at a predetermined target (he mentioned Kyiv). I suspect it's propaganda for domestic consumption (mostly), but I'd like to see a response along the lines of "how about you try and stop us flattening the launch site before the missile leaves the ground". (In reality it's best ignored, but I'm sure you know where I'm coming from!).

 

[gg1]

Putin's annual address is err.... Interesting!

He says he'd like to challenge the US to a "technological duel" to see whether they can shoot down an Oreshnik missile aimed at a predetermined target (he mentioned Kyiv).

That sounds exactly like the sort of nonsense Trump would say.

Maybe they share the same speechwriter.

 

[AM9]

That sounds exactly like the sort of nonsense Trump would say.

Maybe they share the same speechwriter.

Or brain cell!

 

[Yew]

It's worth remembering that a ballistic missile with multiple independent reentry vehicles is realistically 1960's technology.

 

[brad465]

Putin's also surprisingly admitted he'd have launched his "SMO" earlier in hindsight (the surprise being he was prepared to admit he got stuff wrong and that it's not going well):

Putin says he should have invaded Ukraine earlier, as he holds marathon live event

Russia's president says Assad's downfall is not a "defeat" for Russia, telling the audience Moscow has achieved its goals in the country.

www.bbc.co.uk

Full-scale invasion of Ukraine should have been 'earlier' - Putin says
[/HEADING]
The Kremlin leader is now being asked whether he has learnt anything about himself during the war.

"I now joke much less," he replies.

The next audience member asks him what he would do differently if he had the chance to go back to February 2022 - when Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Putin replies: "Knowing what's happening now, back in 2022 I would've thought the decision ought to have been taken earlier.

"We ought to have started getting ready for those developments, and the special military operation, before," he adds.
]