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Should there be more Liverpool to Scotland services?
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hexagon789
Veteran Member
I noticed that, though what was the 0804 from Glasgow becomes 0745 and takes 4 hours to Liverpool.
The relative populations Greater Manchester 2.8m v Liverpool City Region 1.6m
Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
That doesn't tell the whole story. The catchment of Liverpool Lime St is basically just the two peninsulas (and not even the bit near the WCML or Chester). The catchment of Manchester Piccadilly including connectional journeys is absolutely massive and extends well beyond GM, because it isn't "cut off" by rivers and the sea.
That's not to say that Liverpool doesn't justify a better service.
irish_rail
Established Member
Indeed, and I'd say Liverpool has a far bigger tourist pull, especially overseas tourists who are likely to be seeing lots of Britain, and often by train. Edinburgh may be a more useful destination than Glasgow though for this group.
Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
I'm not convinced it does.
Almost certainly, so they'll change at Wigan/Warrington/Preston for an Edinburgh service, or fly there. Tourists just work with what's there, they don't get het up at places not having the service they might want.
irish_rail
Established Member
Either way, I think Liverpool needs better (or actually a single !) connection to the south, ie not London, but the likes of Bristol, Plymouth, Southampton, Oxford etc, however that's probably a separate discussion.
I think it could justify a reasonable frequency to the Scottish central belt.
Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
Given that that's not existed since the 1970s I rather doubt that (and how frequent was the service via Ormskirk? I bet it wasn't hourly.)
2tpd of 2-car 158s is the most it's had in recent years - that's hardly a lot of demand. And in my experience they were nowhere near full.
Well Chester's services to Scotland and many other locations is also pretty dire.
If you move not so far from the GM boundaries then the natural places of connection would be the WCML itself or Leeds rather than Central Manchester.
Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
Wha? Take the shuttle to Crewe and you've got approximately 1tph, totally adequate for the level of demand.
Depends which way you move. I'd say the catchment of Manchester Piccadilly to all destinations is probably about 5m, noting that it can be cheaper to go Scotland/north WCML-London changing there due to the higher frequency.
Fundamentally the discussion is about direct services.
The last point is saying Manchester should have all the direct trains because passengers go to connect that way because of its direct trains. Which sounds like a circular argument to me.
Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
You can't have direct trains from everywhere to everywhere.
One change is easier than two.
Surely most passengers from Chester to Scotland actually change at Warrington Bank Quay to where they have 2tph to Scotland.
Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
Quite possibly. The point is that there is a good connectional opportunity and thus you don't need a direct service for the low demand.
LNW-GW Joint
Veteran Member
It runs via Carmyle, Mossend and Wishaw to waste 13 minutes, and no doubt is overtaken by Avanti (times not yet up).
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A lot of people take services from Manchester to various other places by connecting into Manchester; do you think this is likely true of Liverpool to the same extent?
I wasn't suggesting hourly.
However, it might be worth attaching a unit to the Manchester service every two or three hours.
I'd suggest that people travel more now than in the 1970's.
No, but it is reasonable to have one between two core cities in the West Coast of the United Kingdom.
Obviously it isn't but that doesn't mean it should have no direct trains at all (e.g Cardiff a few times a day, rather than every single one heading to Manchester)
TT-ONR-NRN
Established Member
People can't have their cake and eat it though; these limited services per day often hinder reliability and it has often being said that a frequent, robust service with good, clear connections, such is the model oft used on the continent, outweighs the benefits of this handful of services.
I think an interesting quirk, if you will, of the WCML vs the ECML is also the lack of sizeable destinations north of Manchester/Liverpool. There's not really any destination cities on the line that are anywhere near the size of, have the pull of, or the connectivity of York/Newcastle, so passenger flows to intermediate stations is somewhat more limited. I think this has to be taken into account when justifying additional services. Yes, Liverpool may be a sizeable destination, but if the majority flow is Liverpool - Glasgow/Edinburgh, how many customers per day actually make this journey and what scope is there for growth between intermediate stations (especially when you would largely be duplicating an already existing service pattern).
In my eyes, the optimal solution would be more splitting/joining services, perhaps detaching a Liverpool portion from select TPE Manchester service.
In my eyes, the optimal solution would be more splitting/joining services, perhaps detaching a Liverpool portion from select TPE Manchester service.
frodshamfella
Established Member
Yes quite. You have the Wirral which would feed into Liverpool. Liverpool is an extremely popular weekend destination, it really should be better connected.
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Overtaken by both 1V56 (07:48) CrossCountry and 9M51 (08:00) Avanti departures from Glasgow Central.
Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
3tpd near enough is the latter, or not far off.
Is it a major destination from Scotland? I doubt it. If you wanted to work out where there should be direct Glasgow services in the North West where there aren't, it is probably Blackpool - yes, it's quite a traditional seaside destination from those parts!
(I don't think Blackpool should have a direct service to Glasgow in reality, it's fine changing at Preston)
Probably a portion every couple of hours in that case.
And you'd be wrong.
From here
https://travel.radicalstorage.com/u... the most,followed by Birmingham with 803,000. which is using ONS figures
London is consistently the most-visited city in the UK, with 16.1 million overnight visitors from overseas in 2022. The second most visited city is Edinburgh with 1.8 million visitors, then Manchester with 1.2 million, followed by Birmingham with 803,000.
Liverpool is 4th at 680m - just over half of Manchester.
Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
It could perhaps be argued to make sense to have a Liverpool-Glasgow portion on every Manchester-Edinburgh at most? Not sure there's that much demand though, and the portion working did have a habit of causing a lot of delay when that arrangement was in place with the 158s.
hexagon789
Veteran Member
Thanks
Is there a reason it couldn't be 0804 as before?
Previously the 3 southbounds were exactly every four hours at XX:04 each time.
The class 397 fleet appears to have been sized against 8 units to run Manchester Airport to Scotland hourly, and 2 units to run Liverpool to Glasgow every four hours, with 2 spare. It would be difficult to move too far from this.