HS2 Manchester leg scrapped: what should happen now?

Peter Sarf · 18 Mar 2024

Xenophon PCDGS said:
From what I have read so far, this has the makings of the longest-ever running thread on this website.

I can see the words "HS2" cropping up in conversations for decades. For example "remember back in the 2020s when we nearly got a UK high speed rail network - that was until HS2 got curtailed/vandalised/rationalised......".

"And to think we all now rely on Maglev" ...... "using recycled car batteries" [/Dream].

Sorry mods - a bit too speculative perhaps but I do wonder how history will view this. Will any lessons be learned. Are there any lessons to learn.

My most optimistic is of course that a new and cheap add on from Handacre to Crewe gets sanctioned very soon. Call it the North Midlands extension (Don't say it !). Perhaps the start of a more piecemeal approach to High Speed rail ?.

RailUK Forums

350401 · 18 Mar 2024

Xenophon PCDGS said:
From what I have read so far, this has the makings of the longest-ever running thread on this website.

Haha yes I think that’s quite likely. The line won’t open till 2029-33 to Curzon St, with via Handsacre services following a couple of years after services to Curzon Street start. That is a lot of time to discuss what services will actually happen. Politics will inevitably change hugely between now and 2029-33 and that in reality will determine the eventual service pattern. There is a planned service pattern but also a huge potential for this to be changed between now and the line opening.

eldomtom2 · 18 Mar 2024

Peter Sarf said:
Are there any lessons to learn.

The lesson people outside the UK seem to be taking is "make sure you get costs down, because HSR projects can and will be cancelled if they cost too much".

class26 · 18 Mar 2024

350401 said:
Haha yes I think that’s quite likely. The line won’t open till 2029-33 to Curzon St, with via Handsacre services following a couple of years after services to Curzon Street start. That is a lot of time to discuss what services will actually happen. Politics will inevitably change hugely between now and 2029-33 and that in reality will determine the eventual service pattern. There is a planned service pattern but also a huge potential for this to be changed between now and the line opening.

According to Roger Ford in March`s Modern Railways HS2 have now committed to an opening in 2030. Didn`t say if that was just to Curzon St or Handsacre

GJMarshy · 18 Mar 2024

class26 said:
According to Roger Ford in March`s Modern Railways HS2 have now committed to an opening in 2030. Didn`t say if that was just to Curzon St or Handsacre

Some positive news at least! It definitely does seem work is progressing at a raid rate, so this does seem entirely achievable.

If true, this could be good news for 2a. The sooner phase 1 is completed, the sooner it'll be that future government's will begin to realise HSR's potential once it's operational. In theory it should be Labour's second term by that point, which you'd hope would give them time to shift on policy. For all we know if they have a bad first term we might end up with a Labour/Lib-Dem coalition, which would actually be excellent for transport and infrastructure policy.

There might just be light at the end of the tunnel, it's maybe just a bit further away than we originally hoped!

El Blanco · 18 Mar 2024

Exilem said:
Well the taxpayer did pay for Manchester City's home.

The International Freight facility next to Old Trafford does appear to be owned by MUFC https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/business/property/united-scoring-in-property-market-918142 with a few early (speculative) non-official drawings indicating using at least part of the terminal land to build a potential second stadium.

Burnham made the point at the recent press conference that all recent new stadiums had required some public money for local infrastructure to support them.

So perhaps some governement/regional funds would actually be appropriate although we could debate on how much there should be.

Burnham discussed it further in this podcast here:

https://theathletic.com/podcast/162-talk-of-the-devils/?episode=301The Rise of Garnacho & Mayor Andy Burnham on Old Trafford Plans

He talked about using public money to enable improvements to transport infrastructure that would be required with the stadium changes.

He also mentions the Freight Terminal (about 32 mins in) and, interestingly, the impact of freight trains travelling through the City Centre.

It is all probably part of a masterplan to move Trafford Park west and make the area around the stadium akin to Media City.

350401 · 18 Mar 2024

class26 said:
According to Roger Ford in March`s Modern Railways HS2 have now committed to an opening in 2030. Didn`t say if that was just to Curzon St or Handsacre

That is for the Curzon Street to OOC. Via Handsacre services will follow approximately 18-24 months later. Thanks to the delays incurred by the various rephasings, Handsacre Civils is a fair bit behind compared to the rest of the programme.

snowball · 18 Mar 2024

350401 said:
Thanks to the delays incurred by the various rephasings, Handsacre Civils is a fair bit behind compared to the rest of the programme.

And presumably thanks also to uncertainty over whether or not they will revert to the originally proposed junction layout.

Krokodil · 18 Mar 2024

snowball said:
And presumably thanks also to uncertainty over whether or not they will revert to the originally proposed junction layout.

I'm sure that the Treasury are pushing through plans to convert it into a single-lead junction as we speak.

The Planner · 18 Mar 2024

snowball said:
And presumably thanks also to uncertainty over whether or not they will revert to the originally proposed junction layout.

Id bet significant amounts of cash on it staying as the slow lines connection.

Snow1964 · Tuesday at 07:38

The Government has slipped out a document on HS2 phase 2b interim project update

In January 2024, HS2 safeguarding was removed across the majority of the former Phase 2a route (West Midlands to Crewe). Safeguarding was retained close to Handsacre to allow phase 1 of HS2 to connect to the West Coast Main Line so that HS2 trains can reach cities in the north of England and Scotland on the existing West Coast Main Line.

Safeguarding on the former Phase 2b route will be amended by summer 2024 to allow for the requirements of Network North schemes, in particular Northern Powerhouse Rail.

High Speed Two (HS2) Ltd is working with the Department for Transport to implement these changes. This includes updating several policies and procedures

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/662fccb0ce557c60ed19adad/Guide_to_Farmers_and_Growers_2b_+_Interim_Update.pdf

Mgameing123 · Tuesday at 08:14

Snow1964 said:
The Government has slipped out a document on HS2 phase 2b interim project update

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/662fccb0ce557c60ed19adad/Guide_to_Farmers_and_Growers_2b_+_Interim_Update.pdf

Love how short sited the UK government is.

stephen rp · Tuesday at 16:21

I suppose the "good news" is that removing the safeguarding doesn't mean that the land isn't still blighted. It will always be the obvious route for extending HS2 when phase 1 proves a success...

BrianW · Tuesday at 17:22

stephen rp said:
I suppose the "good news" is that removing the safeguarding doesn't mean that the land isn't still blighted. It will always be the obvious route for extending HS2 when phase 1 proves a success...

HS2 (aka 'The Government' in this situation) needed to give 'good news' to Farmers and Growers- and that is what this product of PR people is aimed to do, in few words.

It still 'weasles' around (still uncertain?) Handsacre arrangements. Sowing seeds to produce electoral results?

class26 · Tuesday at 18:02

BrianW said:
HS2 (aka 'The Government' in this situation) needed to give 'good news' to Farmers and Growers- and that is what this product of PR people is aimed to do, in few words.

It still 'weasles' around (still uncertain?) Handsacre arrangements. Sowing seeds to produce electoral results?

Undoubtedly

GJMarshy · Tuesday at 18:14

Hang on... So we're safeguarding part of a route designed for a North-South HSR line for a patched together regional network that doesn't even solve castlefield and will take a diversion that makes zero sense without HS2? Have I got this right?

Mind actually boggles. Seriously.

JKF · Tuesday at 18:20

Currently safeguarded land will be sold off to chums from school, who will then make a handsome return when it is inevitably sold back to the state once the ludicrous decision to cancel the scheme is reversed by a more grown up government. Trebles all round!

Wolfie · Tuesday at 22:33

JKF said:
Currently safeguarded land will be sold off to chums from school, who will then make a handsome return when it is inevitably sold back to the state once the ludicrous decision to cancel the scheme is reversed by a more grown up government. Trebles all round!

If Labour have any sense they will publicly announce now that if they are in Government any repurchase will be at the same price... Another way of achieving the same end would be to tie up any proposed sales in litigation until the General Election....

daodao · 2024-05-01T06:18:12+0100

I agree with HMG regarding lifting the safeguarding on the former HS2 Phase 2b route south of High Legh by summer 2024. This former proposed section of HS2 would have been a white elephant and should never be resurrected.

Xenophon PCDGS · 2024-05-01T07:49:09+0100

Wolfie said:
If Labour have any sense they will publicly announce now that if they are in Government any repurchase will be at the same price... Another way of achieving the same end would be to tie up any proposed sales in litigation until the General Election....

Don't you think that Labour will have the whole economic picture to be viewed and what they deem as priority will be first in line to be addressed?

Meerkat · 2024-05-01T10:03:09+0100

daodao said:
I agree with HMG regarding lifting the safeguarding on the former HS2 Phase 2b route south of High Legh by summer 2024. This former proposed section of HS2 would have been a white elephant and should never be resurrected.

With Phase 1 in place the bit to Crewe is in no way a white elephant - in fact it’s near essential!

Xenophon PCDGS · 2024-05-01T10:16:26+0100

Meerkat said:
With Phase 1 in place the bit to Crewe is in no way a white elephant - in fact it’s near essential!

I am sure that if you were to put that forward to Sir Humphrey, he would give you one of his many convoluted answers as why that will not be possible...

Peter Mugridge · 2024-05-01T10:23:28+0100

Safeguarding on the former Phase 2b route will be amended by summer 2024 to allow for the requirements of Network North schemes, in particular Northern Powerhouse Rail.

This wording in the document is somewhat ambiguous in that it could simply be political weaseling - just deleting all reference to HS2 2b and substituting Network North / Northern Powerhouse / The Mayoral Proposals / whatever. That would have the result that the government axemen could claim they have done their work while still protecting the route for those other schemes which have been the subject of a lot of discussion recently. Until anything actually changes, it will be impossible to really tell.

Tezza1978 · 2024-05-01T10:59:54+0100

I can't see anyone wanting to buy land that will continue to have compulsory purchase rights on it, given the election is at most 6 months away.

daodao · 2024-05-01T11:50:10+0100

Meerkat said:
With Phase 1 in place the bit to Crewe is in no way a white elephant - in fact it’s near essential!

I was referring to HS2 phase 2b, i.e. the section north of Crewe, not phase 2a south of Crewe, which I agree is needed.

Xenophon PCDGS · 2024-05-01T11:56:26+0100

Tezza1978 said:
I can't see anyone wanting to buy land that will continue to have compulsory purchase rights on it, given the election is at most 6 months away.

Has there ever been a case where a local authority has compulsory purchased long-defunct railway line land in order to build local authority housing upon it?

Tezza1978 · 2024-05-01T13:22:36+0100

Xenophon PCDGS said:
Has there ever been a case where a local authority has compulsory purchased long-defunct railway line land in order to build local authority housing upon it?

Presumably happened after branch lines were closed after Beeching?

This is kind of the other way round- central govt has the power to compulsory purchase and a lot of the land (e.g for 2a) is farming land or open fields

GJMarshy · 2024-05-01T13:28:20+0100

2/3 of the proposed route for NPR would alreadt be in tunnel anyway. There’s only the short stretch between High Leigh and the airport which would need safeguarding, and most of that roughly follows the M56 anyway.

The question is more “Is such a route viable without HS2 attached?” To which the answer would most certainly be “no”. It just seems a tactic to talk the talk and commit to thinks that won’t happen to distract from the obvious: It won’t happen.

cle · 2024-05-01T14:25:30+0100

daodao said:
I was referring to HS2 phase 2b, i.e. the section north of Crewe, not phase 2a south of Crewe, which I agree is needed.

Why wasn't this needed? The more running at speed, the better for Scotland journeys. If anything 2B should have been a direct line from Crewe all the way into Preston.

But - France's big project began with a line to just Lyons, and so Crewe would be a reasonable place to get to. Issues mainly being on Manchester paths from there / through Stockport being finite. But Crewe works as a good time shaver for all destinations from the status quo.

Meerkat · 2024-05-01T14:31:30+0100

cle said:
Why wasn't this needed? The more running at speed, the better for Scotland journeys. If anything 2B should have been a direct line from Crewe all the way into Preston.

But - France's big project began with a line to just Lyons, and so Crewe would be a reasonable place to get to. Issues mainly being on Manchester paths from there / through Stockport being finite. But Crewe works as a good time shaver for all destinations from the status quo.

Its mainly about capacity to get to Crewe. And you could split 400m trains there

HS2 Manchester leg scrapped: what should happen now?

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