22nd February - Roadmap out of the pandemic, lifting of restrictions.

[duncanp]

Could you provide evidence regarding this, please? This is the first I've heard of this.

I have never even heard of a "Spanish Variant", let alone heard of any suggestion that it caused the second wave in the autumn, or that it was responsible for the Kent variant.

Even if there is a new variant, the overwhelming likelihood is that existing vaccines will give at least some protection against it.

Also, the government will not allow travel to any countries where a really infectious variant exists, and existing border controls, however regrettable they might be, will reduce (not eliminate) the risk of such a variant entering the UK.

 

[nlogax]

Overseas travel was to blame for the Spanish variant which caused the second wave in Autumn, and there is a strong chance it was this surge in infections which caused the Kent variant.

Are you not confusing this with the alleged sources of the initial outbreak in early 2020, as per the recently published Imperial College research?

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/212093/covid-19-transmission-chains-uk-traced-back/

COVID-19 transmission chains in the UK traced back to Spain, France and Italy​

 

[bramling]

Guess what:

In 2022, the virus will have the potential to mutate and evade the antibody response generated by the vaccine.
In 2023, the virus will have the potential to mutate and evade the antibody response generated by the vaccine.
In 2025, the virus will have the potential to mutate and evade the antibody response generated by the vaccine.
In 2030, the virus will have the potential to mutate and evade the antibody response generated by the vaccine.

Why should we trash our tourism and travel sector now over something which might happen, all whilst using an argument that could both render the industry 'too risky' permanently and shows just how poor our societal risk-perception really is.

The trouble at the moment is for as long as we are paying people to sit around doing nothing, people are always going to find potential scenarios why living with this is supposedly not viable.

Again, a chronic lack of strong leadership from BJ.

 

[Dent]

At the moment that risk is too much.

By what objective criteria?

 

[Yew]

Please read what I said properly or stop twisting it. I have said that there needs to be caution in the present circumstances because of the reasons I outlined above. This will be different when the vaccines have been modified, indeed it was reported over the weekend that a vaccine is being developed which should protect to some degree against all variants. We're not at this stage yet.


Yes any kind of travel increases the risk of mutations, but as I said above there needs to be a balance of risk management. The risk is much greater with overseas travel and that is why there needs to be more caution in this sector.

I'm sorry, but that's patently untrue, the current vaccine still provides effective protection against all known variants, there may be slight reductions in efficiency in some cases, but it still represents a viable and effective vaccine.

Yes any kind of travel increases the risk of mutations, but as I said above there needs to be a balance of risk management. The risk is much greater with overseas travel and that is why there needs to be more caution in this sector.

Citation please?

 

[bramling]

Although from March 8th there are only 3 full school weeks until the Easter Holidays, which might act as a natural "circuit breaker" anyway.

I can’t begin to comprehend how disruptive this is for education. This is proving worse than last year, as at least they had two terms worth of schooling one after the other. This year has been a disjointed mess.

 

[DB]

I have never even heard of a "Spanish Variant", let alone heard of any suggestion that it caused the second wave in the autumn, or that it was responsible for the Kent variant.

Even if there is a new variant, the overwhelming likelihood is that existing vaccines will give at least some protection against it.

Also, the government will not allow travel to any countries where a really infectious variant exists, and existing border controls, however regrettable they might be, will reduce (not eliminate) the risk of such a variant entering the UK.

And cases were going to increase in the autumn whatever - that's what happens with respiratory viruses in our climate. It's not some unexpected event due to a mutant variant!

 

[RomeoCharlie71]

The more a virus replicates, ie. the more people it infects, the greater the likelihood of a mutation.

No vaccine is 100% foolproof, what I am trying to explain is that the next batch of vaccines currently being developed will provide much better protection against new variants than what we currently have, and so the risks from overseas travel reduce accordingly. At the moment that risk is too much.

I asked for evidence regarding the so-called Spanish variant causing the autumn resurgence of the virus which lead to the Kent variant. I know how mutations work.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
On a different note, secondary school pupils will be required to wear masks in classrooms from March 8th.

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1363848578536456200

Secondary school children will be required to wear masks in the classroom as well as in corridors, I understand - as I just mentioned on @itvnews Lunchtime News

 

[DB]

I'm sorry, but that's patently untrue, the current vaccine still provides effective protection against all known variants, there may be slight reductions in efficiency in some cases, but it still represents a viable and effective vaccine.

Plus any modified vaccine will only be designed to protect against variants known at that time, not necessarily against one which appears a week after the vaccine is released (although in all probability it will protect against that too as the mutations tend not to be major).

 

[Yew]

On a different note, secondary school pupils will be required to wear masks in classrooms from March 8th.

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1363848578536456200

Because they've been so effective since they've been introduced...

Plus any modified vaccine will only be designed to protect against variants known at that time, not necessarily against one which appears a week after the vaccine is released (although in all probability it will protect against that too as the mutations tend not to be major).

Indeed, it's an insane argument, as as soon as we have a new vaccine, there will be a new variant. That's a bit like locking down every flu season, until everyone has had their flu jab. It's quite simply insane.

 

[DB]

Because they've been so effective since they've been introduced...

It's pathetic isn't it - but this is the world we are now in: if something clearly isn't working, that's because we need to do more of it. They really have developed a 'Heads I win, tails you lose' type of scenario as there is literally nothing which they will take as evidence that their chosen measures don't work.

 

[Philip]

Are you not confusing this with the alleged sources of the initial outbreak in early 2020, as per the recently published Imperial College research?

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/212093/covid-19-transmission-chains-uk-traced-back/

No, I definitely remember reading that the surge in infections across September-October was thought to be largely caused by people coming back from holiday in Spain where a new mutation had recently been detected.

 

[kristiang85]

No, I definitely remember reading that the surge in infections across September-October was thought to be largely caused by people coming back from holiday in Spain where a new mutation had recently been detected.

The surge in infection in September/October was caused by schools and universites returning, as it does every year with respiratory diseases. It was simply coincidence that this included the so-called Spain variant, amongst many other variants, just this one was possibly attributed to travel, but never fully proven (although it looks likely it was, but given the way Europe is connected, it would have happened anyway). Also it was not much different from the known circulating coronaviruses in the UK in spring so had zero effect on vaccine development at the time.

The original paper which made the news is here: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.25.20219063v1.full.pdf

 

[Class 33]

Breaking news on Sky News. Vallance saying some measures will be needed beyond 2021! My guess this would be social distancing and mask wearing! Bugger off Vallance, we don't need you, and we don't have to do what you say. We've got these vaccines now, and we need to get this country back to normal within the next few months!

 

[DB]

Breaking news on Sky News. Vallance saying some measures will be needed beyond 2021! My guess this would be social distancing and mask wearing! Bugger off Vallance, we don't need you, and we don't have to do what you say. We've got these vaccines now, and we need to get this country back to normal within the next few months!

What is their exit strategy? Because if it's needed beyond this year (in their view), it'll be needed forever.

The media really should be asking awkward questions by now.

 

[kristiang85]

Breaking news on Sky News. Vallance saying some measures will be needed beyond 2021! My guess this would be social distancing and mask wearing! Bugger off Vallance, we don't need you, and we don't have to do what you say. We've got these vaccines now, and we need to get this country back to normal within the next few months!

I just heard that. The only thing stopping me from throwing my phone at my TV screen is that I don't really want to fork out for a new one.

 

[Class 33]

I just heard that. The only thing stopping me from throwing my phone at my TV screen is that I don't really want to fork out for a new one.

Same here.

 

[Simon11]

I just heard that. The only thing stopping me from throwing my phone at my TV screen is that I don't really want to fork out for a new one.

Or as you don't want to shop online for a new TV as you prefer to wait and buy a TV in person as you need to see the quality of the TV before buying of course.....haha

 

[NorthOxonian]

Breaking news on Sky News. Vallance saying some measures will be needed beyond 2021! My guess this would be social distancing and mask wearing! Bugger off Vallance, we don't need you, and we don't have to do what you say. We've got these vaccines now, and we need to get this country back to normal within the next few months!

I think Vallance is just desperate because he knows his time in the spotlight is coming towards an end. Hopefully politicians are able to stand up to him and make it clear that we will return to normal life, no matter what misanthropes like him say.

 

[Philip]

I'm sorry, but that's patently untrue, the current vaccine still provides effective protection against all known variants, there may be slight reductions in efficiency in some cases, but it still represents a viable and effective vaccine.


Citation please?

The more people you have visiting and coming back from a greater number of countries, the greater the chance of a new variant being brought in that these present vaccines can't protect against - particularly countries which have low vaccination rates.

These vaccines are great, but they are relatively limited, they were made principally to protect against the original strain. The fact that vaccine manufacturers are rapidly working to modify/strengthen their vaccines to protect against new variants should make this obvious.

 

[yorksrob]

The media really should be asking awkward questions by now.

Instead we'll have asinine tripe from them.

 

[DB]

These vaccines are great, but they are relatively limited, they were made principally to protect against the original strain. The fact that vaccine manufacturers are rapidly working to modify/strengthen their vaccines to protect against new variants should make this obvious.

Every mutation so far has been relatively minor and the vaccines do largely protect against it. By your logic, foreign travel would need to be banned permanently as mutations could appear at any time, and some countries are quite likely to always have a relatively low proportion vaccinated.

 

[Simon11]

Seven more ******** weeks before I can get a haircut and my partner can buy a properly fitting bra...really! and I see our 3rd time of rescheduling of our wedding for May 2021 is cancelled yet again as only 30 people can go....

The second step comes from 12 April would see major parts of the economy permitted to reopen:

• Non-essential retail opens, hairdressers and public buildings like libraries and museums
• Outdoor settings like alcohol takeaways, beer gardens, zoos and theme parks
• Indoor leisure like swimming pools and gyms
• Self-contained holiday accommodation, such as self-catering and camp sites

The third step will come from 17 May - if the data allows - and will see the "rule of six" abolished for outdoor gatherings, replaced with a limit of 30 people:

• Two households can mix indoors - with the rule of six applied in hospitality settings like pubs
• Cinemas, hotels, performances and sporting events reopen - though social distancing remains
• Up to 10,000 spectators can attend the very largest outdoor seated venues like football stadiums

Up to 30 people will be able to attend weddings, receptions, funerals and wakes.

 

[lkpridgeon]

Well the leaks were right... 5 week review periods. Schools reopen on 8th March. So defacto lockdown until April at the earliest.

 

[Jamesrob637]

I'm hearing all pupils back on the 8th, which I personally think is a mistake. Phased reopening from the 8th with all pupils back after Easter on Monday 19th of April.

 

[bramling]

Seven more ******** weeks before I can get a haircut and my partner can buy a properly fitting bra...really! and I see our 3rd time of rescheduling of our wedding for May 2021 is cancelled yet again as only 30 people can go....

The second step comes from 12 April would see major parts of the economy permitted to reopen:

• Non-essential retail opens, hairdressers and public buildings like libraries and museums
• Outdoor settings like alcohol takeaways, beer gardens, zoos and theme parks
• Indoor leisure like swimming pools and gyms
• Self-contained holiday accommodation, such as self-catering and camp sites

The third step will come from 17 May - if the data allows - and will see the "rule of six" abolished for outdoor gatherings, replaced with a limit of 30 people:

• Two households can mix indoors - with the rule of six applied in hospitality settings like pubs
• Cinemas, hotels, performances and sporting events reopen - though social distancing remains
• Up to 10,000 spectators can attend the very largest outdoor seated venues like football stadiums

Up to 30 people will be able to attend weddings, receptions, funerals and wakes.

Do we assume these dates are likely to apply in other parts of the UK? I take it there’s no chance of, for example, hotels in Wales re-opening sooner?

I can’t see why on earth it has to be mid-May before hotels can open.

 

[Yew]

The more people you have visiting and coming back from a greater number of countries, the greater the chance of a new variant being brought in that these present vaccines can't protect against - particularly countries which have low vaccination rates.

These vaccines are great, but they are relatively limited, they were made principally to protect against the original strain. The fact that vaccine manufacturers are rapidly working to modify/strengthen their vaccines to protect against new variants should make this obvious.

Then why has every pandemic plan from before 2020 said that there is no point in closing the borders?

 

[Class 33]

As I expected, no mention of when social distancing and face mask wearing can be scrapped. But he mentioned a review will take place at some point(can't remember when that will be) as how much longer these restrictions will be needed. And if the likes of darn Vallance and Whitty are involved in that review, well we know what they're going to say don't we, and will probably sway Johnson into his decision. He needs to stand up to them and say NO NO NO we can't keep these restrictions for much longer and we need to get this country back to normal!

Sadly after today's announcement, I can see the festival and events season being pretty much a write-off again. I can see there will probably be a flood of cancellations coming in over the next few days.

 

[yorksrob]

On the BBC feed, there seems to be some mention of hospitality in step 2 by the PM - which is good news.

 

[35B]

And cases were going to increase in the autumn whatever - that's what happens with respiratory viruses in our climate. It's not some unexpected event due to a mutant variant!

Which rather begs the question of why cases are coming down so fast during the depths of winter