22nd February - Roadmap out of the pandemic, lifting of restrictions.

[Crossover]

Yes though ironically there was a report on the BBC news yesterday that much of the worry is there will be much less immunity in the population next winter due to little to no exposure to flu this winter due to lockdown.

Just one of the many problems and bad outcomes caused/exacerbated by lockdown, along with vitamin D deficiency, other conditions going un-diagnosed etc.

I just commented to one of my colleagues that whats the betting that when we all get back together, there will be an increase in "Freshers Flu" due to folk not mixing much for a good few months!

 

[yorksrob]

I just commented to one of my colleagues that whats the betting that when we all get back together, there will be an increase in "Freshers Flu" due to folk not mixing much for a good few months!

You can guarantee that when the students go back !

 

[cuccir]

Protection amongst those making up 90% of deaths ('vulnerable 1-4' group) is already 90% as good as it is ever going to get, and we have made significant inroads into those making up the next 9% or so of deaths.

I'm sorry but it isn't 90% as good as it's going to be, based on your own dates. You're talking about the 10th May for their second vaccinations and you need to then add two weeks to get to the actual impact of those jabs. And this is a window when the majority of the adult population won't have any vaccination at all, so the disease could spread rapidly if it starts to get out again. So during April and May there is good reason, if covid-cases shot up again, to impose of some sort of delay or staggering of reopening.

If it's much less of a wave than Jan - Feb, then the NHS won't be overwhelmed, which to my mind means that lockdown measures simply are not appropriate. Perhaps other measures might be appropriate for a time to mitigate spread, however lockdown could only ever be appropriate (if at all) in an emergency situation.

Oh completely - what I'm talking about here is staggering/delaying in that 10 week period between the middle of April and mid to late June, but also only if the rate really did jump up.

 

[Watershed]

I'm sorry but it isn't 90% as good as it's going to be, based on your own dates

My apologies, 92.6% if you want to use the figures for the Pfizer vaccine, 76% for the AstraZenica. So based on the balance of Astra and Pfizer vaccines (the majority, especially earlier in the programme and thus for most group 1-4 people, being the latter) the protection currently averages maybe 85%, even more once you take into consideration those who have received second doses.

The fundamental point is that this is about as good as it's going to get for those who make up the vast majority of deaths. Further delay based on the risk to them is simply unacceptable, especially when the delay has such a significant cost to others' health in so many ways.

 

[brad465]

I just commented to one of my colleagues that whats the betting that when we all get back together, there will be an increase in "Freshers Flu" due to folk not mixing much for a good few months!

Yes that's plausible, if June 21st remains the date of all legal restrictions being lifted and thus most staff turn up to the office more in my organisation, then I have 2 domestic holidays in late June and early July (which I booked prior to both the roadmap and January lockdown announcement) that will ensure I don't mix heavily with staff if everyone else is in the first 2-3 weeks after. My office is open for limited use so will look to spend some time there before and after the holidays in question, if they go ahead so I see people where needed.

 

[Bikeman78]

Yes though ironically there was a report on the BBC news yesterday that much of the worry is there will be much less immunity in the population next winter due to little to no exposure to flu this winter due to lockdown.

I felt rough for most of January and February last year. Since then I've not had a single cough or cold. There might be a surge of coughs and colds when people mix again but I'll take that over lockdowns and restrctions.

 

[cuccir]

The fundamental point is that this is about as good as it's going to get

But we're at a point where these differences in percentages and weeks really matter.

I guess it's a point of interpretation, but from my understanding of the spread and impact of the disease, the difference is very significant between a situation where the most vulnerable 20% of the population have 85% protection in mid-April while the majority of the rest are not vaccinated at all; and them having 95%+ protection while the majority of the remainder are vaccinated, which is where we'll be at in mid-June.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

But we're at a point where these differences in percentages and weeks really matter.

I guess it's a point of interpretation, but from my understanding of the spread and impact of the disease, the difference is very significant between a situation where the most vulnerable 20% of the population have 85% protection in mid-April while the majority of the rest are not vaccinated at all; and them having 95%+ protection while the majority of the remainder are vaccinated, which is where we'll be at in mid-June.

12 months ago we had no vaccine yet the cases collapsed. Opening up over Summer wasn't the primary driver of the situation we are now - that was entirely failure by govt to suppress transmission in Autumn and then to blame it all on the Kent variant was govt covering its backside. We now have vaccine at an ever increasing level so we are in a far better situation and whether its 80-95 or 90% isn't materially of concern unless the mission is zero covid which they say its not.

 

[yorksrob]

Oh completely - what I'm talking about here is staggering/delaying in that 10 week period between the middle of April and mid to late June, but also only if the rate really did jump up.

I think phases 1a and 1b should be happenning at the same time, with everything else brought forward. I don't see any justification for delaying outdoor activities.

Oh completely - what I'm talking about here is staggering/delaying in that 10 week period between the middle of April and mid to late June, but also only if the rate really did jump up.

I think phases 1a and 1b should be happenning at the same time, with everything else brought forward. I don't see any justification for delaying outdoor activities.

 

[DB]

12 months ago we had no vaccine yet the cases collapsed. Opening up over Summer wasn't the primary driver of the situation we are now - that was entirely failure by govt to suppress transmission in Autumn and then to blame it all on the Kent variant was govt covering its backside.

Afraid I don't agree that it was the fault of the government - it was going to happen whatever they did. It's what viruses do.

The only attempts to suppress it which have actually done so are those where they had relatively few cases and clamped down hard straight away. What happens in the longer term in those cases is another matter, but it did suppress it for the time being. However, once it has become endemic there is no country where restrictions have made any significant difference - and there is no correltation between the measures taken and the outcome.

The government certainly deserves a lot of criticism for the ineffective and massively damaging restrictions they have used in their futile attempt to 'beat the virus', but not for the spread of the virus.

 

[Jamesrob637]

I think phases 1a and 1b should be happenning at the same time, with everything else brought forward. I don't see any justification for delaying outdoor activities.



I think phases 1a and 1b should be happenning at the same time, with everything else brought forward. I don't see any justification for delaying outdoor activities.

Non-essential retail should also be opening up on the 29th - shop alone if possible, or if it's somewhere where you buy heavier and more bulky stuff, continue to use click and collect or shop with your bubble or one other friend/colleague.

 

[35B]

Afraid I don't agree that it was the fault of the government - it was going to happen whatever they did. It's what viruses do.

The only attempts to suppress it which have actually done so are those where they had relatively few cases and clamped down hard straight away. What happens in the longer term in those cases is another matter, but it did suppress it for the time being. However, once it has become endemic there is no country where restrictions have made any significant difference - and there is no correltation between the measures taken and the outcome.

The government certainly deserves a lot of criticism for the ineffective and massively damaging restrictions they have used in their futile attempt to 'beat the virus', but not for the spread of the virus.

So the implementation of NPIs through December, culminating in the lockdown announcement in early January, which has severely limited social contact, has had no bearing on the transmission of a virus spread as a result of people meeting?

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Let's suppose that in mid-April (at the point of the 'phase 2' reopening) the virus is starting to circulate at higher levels, or is growing with R >1. A fourth wave starting at that point could still be fairly deadly: I'd guess about half the population will be unvaccinated (FT projection is to start under-40s in mid-April), the 12 million over 65s will mostly not have had their second shot ie they'll have something like 80% protection against severe illness. But that still means the possibility of 2,500,000 vulnerable people getting a severe illness: of course not that many would, but still potential for a number of deaths albeit you'd hope at a lower level than the third wave.

Jenny Harries said the R number was less of an issue yesterday and also stated

The whole issue about vaccination of course is we have now protected the most vulnerable individuals as we come down the age groups into those with underlying health conditions. And so the impact on our hospitals going forward is likely to be significantly less.

This is mission creep and govt isn't taking a balanced approach to all needs of society.

 

[DB]

So the implementation of NPIs through December, culminating in the lockdown announcement in early January, which has severely limited social contact, has had no bearing on the transmission of a virus spread as a result of people meeting?

We've been through this before.

Compare the graph with Sweden for the same period (it was posted on one of these threads) - it rises and falls at virtually identical points.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Afraid I don't agree that it was the fault of the government - it was going to happen whatever they did. It's what viruses do.

The only attempts to suppress it which have actually done so are those where they had relatively few cases and clamped down hard straight away. What happens in the longer term in those cases is another matter, but it did suppress it for the time being. However, once it has become endemic there is no country where restrictions have made any significant difference - and there is no correltation between the measures taken and the outcome.

The government certainly deserves a lot of criticism for the ineffective and massively damaging restrictions they have used in their futile attempt to 'beat the virus', but not for the spread of the virus.

Agree that the virus will spread but the govt had the ability to moderate that rate of growth by the deployment of NPI's and it failed to do that in autumn and sowed the seeds of the exponential increase with leaving retail open from the end of lockdown 2 in the run up to Xmas. Im for the Swedish approach but the govt isn't which means it has a limit of tolerance before it over reacts to full lockdowns which is why had it properly used the tiers as they designed it we would have had suppressed activity but not necessarily full lockdowns. Also im of the view that because they allowed it to get in such a mess they have now overreacted with this snail pace relaxation.

 

[Bikeman78]

Agree that the virus will spread but the govt had the ability to moderate that rate of growth by the deployment of NPI's and it failed to do that in autumn and sowed the seeds of the exponential increase with leaving retail open from the end of lockdown 2 in the run up to Xmas. Im for the Swedish approach but the govt isn't which means it has a limit of tolerance before it over reacts to full lockdowns which is why had it properly used the tiers as they designed it we would have had suppressed activity but not necessarily full lockdowns. Also im of the view that because they allowed it to get in such a mess they have now overreacted with this snail pace relaxation.

I know we're not supposed to mention Sweden but looking at worldometers.info is quite interesting. Cases peaked around Christmas, started to fall but levelled off mid January. Meanwhile deaths have been on a fairly steady downward trend since January 20th.

 

[DustyBin]

So the implementation of NPIs through December, culminating in the lockdown announcement in early January, which has severely limited social contact, has had no bearing on the transmission of a virus spread as a result of people meeting?

I’m sure we’ve been here before but I expect the lockdown has had some short term impact on transmission. The issue is that this has gone on for a year now and I honestly believe that strategically lockdowns have achieved nothing. There was an interesting report on Sky News (of all places) this afternoon about Italy having the second highest number of covid deaths in Europe behind the UK despite having imposed lengthy lockdowns, just like the UK.... So where is the evidence that lockdowns work? All I’ve seen and heard are completely unsubstantiated claims that “it would have been so much worse if we hadn’t locked down” which isn’t really evidence at all, is it....

 

[Eyersey468]

I’m sure we’ve been here before but I expect the lockdown has had some short term impact on transmission. The issue is that this has gone on for a year now and I honestly believe that strategically lockdowns have achieved nothing. There was an interesting report on Sky News (of all places) this afternoon about Italy having the second highest number of covid deaths in Europe behind the UK despite having imposed lengthy lockdowns, just like the UK.... So where is the evidence that lockdowns work? All I’ve seen and heard are completely unsubstantiated claims that “it would have been so much worse if we hadn’t locked down” which isn’t really evidence at all, is it....

I have been of the opinion from the beginning that the collateral damage from lockdowns far outweighs any short term benefit. I agree about the unsubstantiated claims about how much worse it would have been.

 

[DustyBin]

I have been of the opinion from the beginning that the collateral damage from lockdowns far outweighs any short term benefit. I agree about the unsubstantiated claims about how much worse it would have been.

Absolutely, we’ve seen considerable collateral damage already and this is only the beginning, but that barely gets mentioned....

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Absolutely, we’ve seen considerable collateral damage already and this is only the beginning, but that barely gets mentioned....

Indeed the almost universal abdication of MPs from all colours with the exception, ironically, of a few Tories to push for a more holistic approach to managing the consequences is lamentable. Unfortunately it shows the poor state of politics in this country and winds the clock back to the 1930's with our head in the sand approach to Hitler and Churchill being the lone voice about the consequences of not seeing the bigger picture.

 

[bramling]

Indeed the almost universal abdication of MPs from all colours with the exception, ironically, of a few Tories to push for a more holistic approach to managing the consequences is lamentable. Unfortunately it shows the poor state of politics in this country and winds the clock back to the 1930's with our head in the sand approach to Hitler and Churchill being the lone voice about the consequences of not seeing the bigger picture.

Indeed. The politicians really have been utterly dire. It comes to something when the likes of Steve Baker are the only ones who seem to have a clue!

Going forward, as a country this is something we all need to think about. Personally I’m going to find it hard to vote for *any* of the current crop of parties and politicians, I feel failed by the political system as it is at the moment.

 

[Eyersey468]

Indeed. The politicians really have been utterly dire. It comes to something when the likes of Steve Baker are the only ones who seem to have a clue!

Going forward, as a country this is something we all need to think about. Personally I’m going to find it hard to vote for *any* of the current crop of parties and politicians, I feel failed by the political system as it is at the moment.

Agreed. To be honest I am very unlikely to ever vote for one of the main political parties again.

 

[brad465]

Indeed. The politicians really have been utterly dire. It comes to something when the likes of Steve Baker are the only ones who seem to have a clue!

Going forward, as a country this is something we all need to think about. Personally I’m going to find it hard to vote for *any* of the current crop of parties and politicians, I feel failed by the political system as it is at the moment.

Agreed. To be honest I am very unlikely to ever vote for one of the main political parties again.

As well as a failed political system, primarily in the form of FPTP and no written constitution, tribalism and media behaviour have a lot to answer for. Both have created less scrutiny of politicians because in the case of the media they're all about spectacle, not substance, as the former gets them bigger profits, while tribalism leads to people blindingly accepting whoever they like regardless of how incompetent they are, no mistakes are denied rather than learned.

This relates to covid restrictions as the media continuously interview SAGE scientists and others who demand restrictions continue/be implemented, as this gets more clicks, while they also don't hold the Government to account for fear of not being asked to interview/question them again, hampering their profits and reputation. The tribalism aspect leads to anyone demanding alternative approaches or questioning if this is the right approach to be shamed and/or dismissed without any thought for rational debate, as each side believes they're entirely correct and won't be pragmatic. This also applies to the politicians who fear they can't change strategy because all of a sudden they'll lose support, and in the case of the opposition many of their base support these restrictions, so it's likely Starmer and co. are trapped with their thinking. The CRG among others are probably the ones who got this roadmap announced in the first place, as there doesn't seem to be any equivalent roadmap I've heard of for other countries as yet, except in the US maybe where states like Texas have started to rebel.

Overall, we can (rightly) attack all the culprits as much as we like, but it's the system that has to be changed; our current crop of politicians are mere symptoms of the system.

 

[35B]

As well as a failed political system, primarily in the form of FPTP and no written constitution, tribalism and media behaviour have a lot to answer for. Both have created less scrutiny of politicians because in the case of the media they're all about spectacle, not substance, as the former gets them bigger profits, while tribalism leads to people blindingly accepting whoever they like regardless of how incompetent they are, no mistakes are denied rather than learned.

This relates to covid restrictions as the media continuously interview SAGE scientists and others who demand restrictions continue/be implemented, as this gets more clicks, while they also don't hold the Government to account for fear of not being asked to interview/question them again, hampering their profits and reputation. The tribalism aspect leads to anyone demanding alternative approaches or questioning if this is the right approach to be shamed and/or dismissed without any thought for rational debate, as each side believes they're entirely correct and won't be pragmatic. This also applies to the politicians who fear they can't change strategy because all of a sudden they'll lose support, and in the case of the opposition many of their base support these restrictions, so it's likely Starmer and co. are trapped with their thinking. The CRG among others are probably the ones who got this roadmap announced in the first place, as there doesn't seem to be any equivalent roadmap I've heard of for other countries as yet, except in the US maybe where states like Texas have started to rebel.

Overall, we can (rightly) attack all the culprits as much as we like, but it's the system that has to be changed; our current crop of politicians are mere symptoms of the system.

And I've also seen SAGE scientists who don't align with the consensus being interviewed, and getting plenty of airtime and column inches. Perhaps, just perhaps, the politicians in positions of leadership are going by the overwhelming scientific consensus and following the best advice they can get, and the likes of CRG* are the ones who are choosing to plough their own furrow, regardless of evidence. If cancel culture were a thing, and ideological conformity being enforced, I wouldn't be seeing comments like most of those on this sub-forum, or in places like Twitter.

* - an aside. Having observed Baker during Brexit, I regard him as one of the most dangerous politicians in this country. Without comment on his specific views on either Brexit or Covid, his ideological zealotry combined with ability to organise means that his ability to make a weak government follow his demands regardless of consequences or his elected position is far more undermining of democratic norms than politicians adhering to the advice of the experts they've appointed.

 

[Farang]

Does anyone know how much money has been wasted spent on the Nightingale hospitals?

Less than on the failed NHS Serco test and trace.

 

[Class 33]

Johnson today saying there are signs of a Covid surge in Europe and UK may be next...

Boris Johnson warns there are signs of Covid surge in Europe and UK may be next

The Prime Minister said re-opening schools would 'inevitably' add to the 'budget of risk'

www.mirror.co.uk

Boris Johnson says there are signs of a Covid surge in Europe - and UK may be next​

The Prime Minister said re-opening schools would 'inevitably' add to the 'budget of risk'

Boris Johnson has warned there are signs of a Covid in Europe - and the UK could be next.

The Prime Minister sounded the alarm today after Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty said “all the modelling” suggests cases will surge as lockdown eases.

And he accepted the reopening of schools this week will “inevitably” make the situation riskier.

It raises another threat to the timetable for easing lockdown - with the PM repeatedly warning the dates of April 12, May 17 and June 21 for key changes could be pushed back.

He wrote in a newspaper article: “We must recognise that the rate of infection is still high – much higher than last summer.

“We can see the signs of a surge of Covid among some of our European friends, and we remember how we in the UK have tended to follow that upwards curve, if a few weeks later.

We know how fast this disease can take off, and that Monday’s successful return to school will inevitably add to the budget of risk.

“The overwhelming majority of people – and businesses – would prefer us to take steps that are cautious but irreversible, rather than go backwards again. They would rather trade haste for certainty.”

Chris Whitty yesterday said England will see another "surge" of Covid cases this summer, autumn or winter.

And he rejected calls to ease lockdown faster, telling MPs: "If you open up too fast, a lot more people die - a lot more people die."

But he added the "ratio of cases to deaths will go right down" compared to previous waves of the virus, due to the vaccine kicking in.

It comes after modelling for SAGE last month projected there would be more than 30,000 extra deaths by summer 2022 under all scenarios of easing lockdown.

Chief Scientific Advisor Sir Patrick Vallance said reopening schools this week could push the R number up by between 10% and 50%.

Prof Whitty told MPs: “As things are opening up, what all the modelling suggests is at some point we will get a surge in virus.

"Whether that happens, we hope it doesn’t happen soon, but it might for example happen later in the summer if we open up gradually, or if there’s a seasonal effect it might happen over the next autumn or winter.

“But I think all the modelling suggests there is going to be a further surge and that will find the people who have either not been vaccinated or where the vaccine’s not worked.

"Some of them will end up in hospital and sadly some of them will go on to die. That’s just the reality of where we are.”

Professor of Infectious Diseases at University College London Andrew Hayward, a member of SAGE, told Times Radio: “I think what the vaccine should do is take out the possibility of that surge leading to say over 100,000 deaths, I think that's unlikely.

“We're going to be much more likely to be talking in the 10s of 1000s of deaths, and hopefully in the low 10s of 1000s. of deaths.

“And, that sounds terrible. But actually, that's not so dissimilar to what we put up with every year for flu and other respiratory infections. And so I think, as a society, we need to really think what trade- offs we're willing to make in terms of restrictions.

“Of course, the one thing that could change that is new variants. And particularly if new variants are escaping vaccine-related immunity.

“We expect that if it does happen to only be a partial escape and for vaccines still to be quite protective against severe disease, and for us to be able to update the vaccines. But I think we still need to be humble in the face of this virus and never say that changes are reversible, because we need to be able to react according to the situation in the winter."

But Johnson, we've got all these millions of vaccinations continuing week after week! There will NOT be a big surge in hospital admissions and deaths now!!!! We just can't go on and on with these ridiculous damaging restrictions for too much longer. 21st June and they had better all be finally scrapped.

 

[RomeoCharlie71]

Johnson today saying there are signs of a Covid surge in Europe and UK may be next...

Boris Johnson warns there are signs of Covid surge in Europe and UK may be next

The Prime Minister said re-opening schools would 'inevitably' add to the 'budget of risk'

www.mirror.co.uk

Do Europe have 42% of their adult population vaccinated with the first dose?

No, didn't think so. Moving on...

 

[Class 33]

Do Europe have 42% of their adult population vaccinated with the first dose?

No, didn't think so. Moving on...

Nope. But Johnson seems to have not taken that into account! He said similar comments in Monday's Downing Street News Conference. Unbelievable.

 

[NorthOxonian]

Nope. But Johnson seems to have not taken that into account! He said similar comments in Monday's Downing Street News Conference. Unbelievable.

I think the opposition (ie Baker et al) need to start coming down much more harshly on this sort of thing. As far as I'm concerned Johnson and these scientists are just making anti-vaxxer statements at this point. They need to stop pretending like the vaccines don't work.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Johnson today saying there are signs of a Covid surge in Europe and UK may be next...

Boris Johnson warns there are signs of Covid surge in Europe and UK may be next

The Prime Minister said re-opening schools would 'inevitably' add to the 'budget of risk'

www.mirror.co.uk

Witty and Valence either have little faith in the vaccine although I suspect it's more about tempering peoples behaviour as more get vaccinated so the metrics continue to decline.

Cases have crept up a little over last week but those in English hospitals continues to fall and has dropped below 7k today which is lowest since late October 20 or down 27% over the week with regional variances of 37% down in SW to 23% in NE.

Europe are seeing increases but I wonder if thats the Kent variant making its way across the continent I also feel that its still moving up the country which is why case rates are increasing in some areas.