I don't expect to get a date for indoor hospitality but if one is given, I'd bet on it being April 23rd to coincide with St George's Day, that's the sort of symbolic thing we know Johnson loves.
Things like being able to meet up with people indoors as seen in the old Tier 1 should come after that, ideally around the end of April or May.
I don't expect any dates for things like mask easing or removal of social distancing. I think a reasonable date would be after all of Groups 1-9 and a decent chunk of the rest of us have been given their first dose and Groups 1-4 their second as well, which would probably be in early June, but scientists and their ilk will fight that tooth and nail. I expect to get more of an indication of when we'll do these things in early May, with the reveal timed for just before the biggest local elections in decades.
I mentioned St George's Day as a reopening date for indoor hopsitality elsewhere on these forums, so perhaps it might happen.
The cynic in me also suspects that some of the dates in the roadmap might be deliberately later than the most likely date, in order that Boris Johnson can magically pull a rabbit out of the hat and announce something like ".
.due to the excellent progress in the roll out of the vaccine we can bring forward the reopening date for <insert setting of your choice> from <old date> to <new date>". Boris Johnson is wary of "over promising and under delivering" so the roadmap, or at least the version which is published, might be set up to enable him to "under promise and over deliver".
I wouldn't be in the least surprised, for example, to see the progress of the vaccine rollout amongst categories 5 - 9 being used as an excuse to make an announcement of a confirmed date for the reopening of indoor hospitality shortly after Easter, with the reopening date set for somewhere between St George's Day and the date of the local elections. No doubt suitable "data" will magically emerge just at the right moment to facilitate this.
My expectation is the following:-
- Schools will reopen on March 8th, possibly on a part time basis at first.
- Non essential retail at the end of March. Hymn singing in church might be allowed from Easter Sunday.
- Outdoor hospitality, gyms and leisure centres from the Easter weekend
- Indoor hospitality from the end of April or during the first half of May, with a confirmed date given before the local elections for political reasons.
- Some easing of the restrictions on household mixing towards the end of March.
As for international travel, I would expect restrictions to be eased once the majority of adults have had at least their first vaccination. The government won't want to be see to allow the over 50s to jet off to the sun after Easter, whilst unvaccinated younger people are confined to staying in the UK. When international travel is allowed will also depend on negotiations with other countries, particularly the countries in the Schengen zone. There is no point the government allowing us to travel abroad if other countries won't let us in.
Masks and social distancing probably won't be scrapped fully until enough adults have had two doses of the vaccine for herd immunity to set in. This is more likely to happen later in the summer, say around July or August, but that is not to say that the restrictions will not be progressivley loosened before then. It is correct that the scientists are fighting tooth and nail for these restrictions to be retained "for some time to come", and they are leaking scary stories about "possible" new variants spreading amongst unvaccinated people, with these variants "possibly" being resistant to existing vaccines.