No 10 rule breaking gatherings during 2020.

[Nicholas Lewis]

Given Labour's lead in the polls at the moment, the last thing the Conservatives will want at the moment is a general election.

Its only reaction to media narrative will soon reverse. I have no time from BoJo but he will blag his way out of this. Its already a done deal that Grays report will provide evidence that points the finger elsewhere and BoJos only guilt will be naivety.

I think Boris Johnson will go sometime this year. The question is, will he jump or will he need to be pushed. The answer to this question will be determined by the local election results in May, plus the state of the opinion polls at the same time. If both are bad for the Conservatives and Boris Johnson still hasn't resigned by then, he will be forced out.

This is certainly a possibility and only credible scenario despite i would be thrilled to see him ditched next week but won't happen. Pressure has been exerted to protect the Tory brand currently nothing more nothing less. Its an utter disgrace but as it ever was in this country.

 

[yorksrob]

It must be galling for Boris. Just as his approach to COVID over the last few months is being vindicated, he becomes undone by hypocrisies from last year. Such is life in politics.

 

[brad465]

Looks like it's Johnson's wife now being implicated:

Tomorrow's Papers Today - UK Front Pages - Latest Newspaper Headlines

All of UK's Tomorrow's Front Pages ✅ Updated Daily between 7PM - 11pm ✅ The Mail, Express, Times, Guardian and many more Proudly supporting #buyapaper

www.tomorrowspapers.co.uk

I do wonder though if this in part trying to get people bored/annoyed about the revelation saga as a whole, as I've seen suggestions this is somewhat trivial.

 

[NorthOxonian]

Looks like it's Johnson's wife now being implicated:

Tomorrow's Papers Today - UK Front Pages - Latest Newspaper Headlines

All of UK's Tomorrow's Front Pages ✅ Updated Daily between 7PM - 11pm ✅ The Mail, Express, Times, Guardian and many more Proudly supporting #buyapaper

www.tomorrowspapers.co.uk

View attachment 108842

I do wonder though if this in part trying to get people bored/annoyed about the revelation saga as a whole, as I've seen suggestions this is somewhat trivial.

That's a bit of a damp squib - there's a big difference between "advised against" and "prohibited by law". Breaching social distancing in September is the former.

While you could argue Prime Ministers and their close family should have to follow a higher standard to set an example, it's still not as bad as most of the other revelations.

 

[bramling]

It must be galling for Boris. Just as his approach to COVID over the last few months is being vindicated, he becomes undone by hypocrisies from last year. Such is life in politics.

I wouldn’t say his Covid strategy has been vindicated. The whole thing has been a chaotic mess, and I remain of the view the only reason we didn’t get more restrictions last month is thanks to others - in particular those in the Conservative party who have started to challenge SAGE, perhaps feeling more empowered to do so by Johnson losing grip.

The problem with Johnson is his arrogant attitude, and the way he feels he can lie his way out of situations. Likewise chucking others under the bus to save himself - the difficulty with that strategy is that, as well as being unethical, it creates enemies. This is what is causing the constant drip drip drip of bad stuff that keeps coming out.

 

[yorksrob]

I wouldn’t say his Covid strategy has been vindicated. The whole thing has been a chaotic mess, and I remain of the view the only reason we didn’t get more restrictions last month is thanks to others - in particular those in the Conservative party who have started to challenge SAGE, perhaps feeling more empowered to do so by Johnson losing grip.

The problem with Johnson is his arrogant attitude, and the way he feels he can lie his way out of situations. Likewise chucking others under the bus to save himself - the difficulty with that strategy is that, as well as being unethical, it creates enemies. This is what is causing the constant drip drip drip of bad stuff that keeps coming out.

That's a fair point. Without the Tory backbenchers I don't know where we'd be now.

 

[brad465]

That's a bit of a damp squib - there's a big difference between "advised against" and "prohibited by law". Breaching social distancing in September is the former.

While you could argue Prime Ministers and their close family should have to follow a higher standard to set an example, it's still not as bad as most of the other revelations.

Yes I wonder if it's been reported in an attempt to try and move the whole thing along: the only question mark about that logic though is one would not expect The Sunday Telegraph to be responsible, as they'd want to uphold a reputation.

 

[87 027]

there's a big difference between "advised against" and "prohibited by law".

That is true but even the Spectator is starting to turn, with some columnists pointing out the difference between legality and probity and it is the latter which is cutting through

 

[brad465]

One of the other suggestions for all these party revelations is to distract the population from the very draconian Police Bill going through Parliament at the moment, which is due to be voted on in the Lords this week, where criminalising peaceful protest is a major part of it. While these revelations are definitely distracting from this Bill, they are very expensive distractions to say the least, in that they've given Labour significant poll leads in recent days/weeks, led to Johnson having no confidence letters submitted, and a huge divisions in the party over Johnson's future and how the party's are viewed.

 

[D1537]

That is true but even the Spectator is starting to turn, with some columnists pointing out the difference between legality and probity and it is the latter which is cutting through

The Spectator / Telegraph axis want Johnson gone not because he's a liability, but because they want a shift further towards the Brexit/ERG/CRG axis. The problem is that there's no obvious ideological figurehead for them to replace him with. The closest is something like Steve Baker but he's got far too many skeletons in his closet (climate change denial, voted against same-sex marriage, privatisation of the NHS etc.)

 

[87 027]

The Spectator / Telegraph axis want Johnson gone not because he's a liability, but because they want a shift further towards the Brexit/ERG/CRG axis. The problem is that there's no obvious ideological figurehead for them to replace him with. The closest is something like Steve Baker but he's got far too many skeletons in his closet (climate change denial, voted against same-sex marriage, privatisation of the NHS etc.)

Yes, it's very interesting to try and work out the various motivations of the different players in all of this saga! I suspect all is not quite what it seems at first glance...

 

[nw1]

The Spectator / Telegraph axis want Johnson gone not because he's a liability, but because they want a shift further towards the Brexit/ERG/CRG axis. The problem is that there's no obvious ideological figurehead for them to replace him with. The closest is something like Steve Baker but he's got far too many skeletons in his closet (climate change denial, voted against same-sex marriage, privatisation of the NHS etc.)

Patel? But maybe too authoritarian for the Telegraph which I think has something of a libertarian-right outlook, albeit one which completely ignores the anti-libertarian nature of a hard Brexit and the hard borders which result.

 

[island]

That's a bit of a damp squib - there's a big difference between "advised against" and "prohibited by law". Breaching social distancing in September is the former.

Perhaps there is such a difference in the minds of members of this forum, but the general public do not tend to draw a distinction.

 

[D1537]

Patel? But maybe too authoritarian for the Telegraph which I think has something of a libertarian-right outlook, albeit one which completely ignores the anti-libertarian nature of a hard Brexit and the hard borders which result.

Patel's not popular amongst Tory party members either.

Our Cabinet League Table: Johnson falls to his lowest ever negative rating. | Conservative Home

And Ministers associated with support for Covid restrictions suffer noticeable falls in their scores.

www.conservativehome.com

 

[brad465]

Patel's not popular amongst Tory party members either.

Our Cabinet League Table: Johnson falls to his lowest ever negative rating. | Conservative Home

And Ministers associated with support for Covid restrictions suffer noticeable falls in their scores.

www.conservativehome.com

I'm looking forward to the next version of that survey at the end of this month.

 

[greyman42]

It also raises the question as to whether the executive actually thought the various measures were necessary or not. If they did, then why were they not observing them? If they didn't, then why did they implement them for the population?

Perhaps it was pressure from the media and some hysterical public who, for some unfathomable reason, wanted lockdowns and restrictions.
The government were also badly advised by some scientists.

I think the point is more that they had the opportunity to socialize and get out of the house, and as such they would have been less in touch with the misery being suffered by people who were working from home and actually following the rules.

If these people working from home suffered so much misery, then they will be straining at the leash to get back to the office?

 

[21C101]

I see that Starmer deployed some lawyerly weasel words to justify his own beer drinking this morning.

Judging by the publicity it has generated it dosen't seem to have done him much good.

If Farage decides to get active again in the Reform Party both parties might be in trouble in 2024.

 

[brad465]

If Farage decides to get active again in the Reform Party both parties might be in trouble in 2024.

If Farage gets active again then he'll be coerced into suppressing his ambitions, i.e., standing down in key seats. Until the time comes where voting reform is achieved, the two main parties will dominate and people will decide to vote for "the least worst".

 

[D365]

Patel's not popular amongst Tory party members either.

Our Cabinet League Table: Johnson falls to his lowest ever negative rating. | Conservative Home

And Ministers associated with support for Covid restrictions suffer noticeable falls in their scores.

www.conservativehome.com

Good.

 

[bramling]

I see that Starmer deployed some lawyerly weasel words to justify his own beer drinking this morning.

Judging by the publicity it has generated it dosen't seem to have done him much good.

If Farage decides to get active again in the Reform Party both parties might be in trouble in 2024.

I suspect apathy may be a big thing next time round. A lot of voters are pretty hacked off with things, but don't really know where to turn. Hence why we've seen the big Lib Dem swings, with them fulfilling their traditional role as a haven for disaffected voters.

Looking at next week's big dose of "Save Boris" populism, I don't think this will prove that much of a saviour, as none of the measures really give much of an immediate uplift to people, apart from perhaps the ending of restrictions which was essentially going to happen anyway.

Johnson managed to get as far as he has thanks to his brand of "charisma". The difficulty is this has now become the problem, and I think it's going to be difficult to dial back from that.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Looking at next week's big dose of "Save Boris" populism, I don't think this will prove that much of a saviour, as none of the measures really give much of an immediate uplift to people, apart from perhaps the ending of restrictions which was essentially going to happen anyway.

It pretty obvious Sue Grays report will be doctored. It won't deny the parties happened and it will be full of facts of who, where and when but it won't be pointing the finger but will be a body evidence that Boris will put in the bottom drawer. Boris will humble himself again chuck a few minions under the bus reorganise the No.10 machine and go on the offensive with a load of policy announcements. You can already see the really loyal ministers just parroting "we are getting on with the job and delivering the real priorities that matter to the people of this country”.

Much to my disgust Boris ain't going anywhere just yet unless Sunak resigns in the hope that will generate enough letters. Next moment of pain will the local elections on 5th May and people have short memories in this country especially as will be in the calmer waters off the back of Omicron.

 

[Eyersey468]

I agree the report will be doctored and will shift blame away from Boris.

 

[nw1]

I see that Starmer deployed some lawyerly weasel words to justify his own beer drinking this morning.

Judging by the publicity it has generated it dosen't seem to have done him much good.

If Farage decides to get active again in the Reform Party both parties might be in trouble in 2024.

From my understanding Starmer just drunk beer at a Zoom work meeting (actual work meeting, rather than 'work meeting') which took place in the office, and he wasn't doing anything wrong by being in the office?

Seems a bit different to the social events masquerading as 'work dos' that Johnson was likely involved in.

They seem entirely different levels of severity to me and the Starmer thing is just being dragged up by Tory supporters to make their dear leader look less bad.

 

[dosxuk]

There is no need to doctor the report - it was never intended to point the blame at any one individual or find a root cause for why all these parties were happening, it's only really there to establish whether there is any truth in the existence of these rumoured parties and whether they were definitely against the law. Plus Sue Gray's boss was supposed to make the report, until he was revealed to have been at the parties, and her boss' boss is none other than Boris - it would be very unwise for her future career prospects to be going round pointing the finger to harshly in either of those directions. The Tory ministers and MP's going round this weekend calling for everyone to wait for the report all know that Boris isn't going to be blamed for the parties, not because he wasn't involved but because the report isn't going to be doing that anyway. That's their thread of hope that we all wait for the report and they can throw enough wiffle waffle and spin around that everyone will believe Boris has been vindicated and we can get back to Get Brexit Really Really Done For Good This Time and don't-you-know-Boris-personally-ran-the-vaccine-programme-he-really-is-a-god-amongst-men.

Sunak has been keeping very quiet about this, you'd expect he'd know something about all these parties going on at number 10 considering his address (note that Boris actually lives at number 11)...

 

[SteveM70]

her boss' boss is none other than Boris - it would be very unwise for her future career prospects to be going round pointing the finger to harshly in either of those directions

Sue Gray is 65, so future career prospects probably aren't a consideration. However, future damehood prospects on the other hand......

 

[nw1]

I do think a rubicon has been crossed with "Big Dog" and even spin will make it difficult for him to get out of this one. I suspect his support will be cut to his most fanatical fans, rather like what happened to Trump just over a year ago - and that support will not be enough for them to win an election. The Tories will sense this and let him go in favour of a safer pair of hands.

 

[bramling]

I do think a rubicon has been crossed with "Big Dog" and even spin will make it difficult for him to get out of this one. I suspect his support will be cut to his most fanatical fans, rather like what happened to Trump just over a year ago - and that support will not be enough for them to win an election. The Tories will sense this and let him go in favour of a safer pair of hands.

I agree with is what will, eventually, happen. I suspect there’s some way to go before we reach that point. Johnson isn’t going to give up readily, and nor is there any neat way to remove him if he doesn’t resign.

We can bet that a lot of Conservatives will be thinking the word “liability”, but how they translate that into a process which removes - and replaces - him is a significant headache.

Personally I’d pick Hunt at this point, out of a weak line-up. Part of his attraction is not having been tainted by the last two years.

 

[21C101]

I doubt anything much will happen until the May local government results are in.

Also no one in their right mind would want to take over at a time like this. If he is defenestrated it will happen in autumn if the polls don't improve, the local election results are disastrous and if he fluffs the party conference and when Covid (and Aprils huge energy price hike) is receding into the distance.

The polls at the moment are just an opinion poll on recent events, not on who they will vote for. A similar thing occured in reverse during the year 2000 lorry blockade. The tories went about 10 points clear. The only time they did during the blair years. After it was over it faded away and Blair won a landslide.

Labours fundamental problem is that, having lost their Scottish seats, they can only govern in coalition or with the support of the SNP. That is totally toxic to the English voters and will be boldy propagandised by the tories, just as they did in the last three elections.

 

[bramling]

I doubt anything much will happen until the May local government results are in.

Also no one in their right mind would want to take over at a time like this. If he is defenestrated it will happen in autumn if the polls don't improve, the local election results are disastrous and if he fluffs the party conference and when Covid (and Aprils huge energy price hike) is receding into the distance.

The polls at the moment are just an opinion poll on recent events, not on who they will vote for. A similar thing occured in reverse during the year 2000 lorry blockade. The tories went about 10 points clear. The only time they did during the blair years. After it was over it faded away and Blair won a landslide.

Labours fundamental problem is that, having lost their Scottish seats, they can only govern in coalition or with the support of the SNP. That is totally toxic to the English voters and will be boldy propagandised by the tories, just as they did in the last three elections.

Agreed. If Johnson can ride out the next two weeks, which assuming the inquiry is the expected whitewash he should be able to, then he is safe until May, so long as no more smoking guns come out in that time.

His position isn’t great though, as seems fairly clear few in the party really want him as leader at this point, it’s only that replacing him is too much of a headache.

The question is at what point events overtake and it becomes more of a headache to keep propping him up, especially as whatever happens it seems doubtful he will be allowed to lead into the next election.

I wonder if he could be persuaded to do a “resign for family reasons” type of departure?

A lot of this would be more pressing if Labour were in a position of strength, but they have their own issues.

 

[takno]

Personally I’d pick Hunt at this point, out of a weak line-up. Part of his attraction is not having been tainted by the last two years.

I think Hunt is yet to face up to how much his reign in health was responsible for the state of the NHS. He's been left to it while he's criticising the government, but if he's in charge people will start counting up his cuts to PPE supplies and the way he left ambulances. Then he might have some hard questions to answer.