Quick "back of a fag packet" calculation, I think the 91 requires five vehicles and the 34/35 requires ten, so a combined peak vehicle requirement (PVR) of fifteen for the Woking 34/35/91 additions. I believe the current Woking operation (33, 39A/B/C, 40, 81) require two vehicles on paper, but you often see three in town as one has an extended layover between trips on the 417 and other routes, presumably to cover driver break(s) on the 81.It occurs to me that Stagecoach might benefit from having an outstation in the Woking area .......
With a small existing operation in Woking, limited capacity to expand at Peasmarsh, then add in the 34/35 & 91, just idle speculation!
Without wishing to come across as the prophet of doom, I hope that the operators taking on these new routes have the drivers, support staff and vehicles lined up for these new services, or at least advanced plans to do so. I guess Arriva are pulling out partly because they can't make the current service pay; should the new services prove unreliable, passengers will walk (drive, cadge a lift, go by train, not travel etc), making them less viable. I write as someone living in Stagecoach SE land where the twitter feed is already full of cancellations for the day due to driver shortage, even with reduced timetables on some routes (doubtless followed later by those due to vehicle issues).
Rumours that RedRoute do have the vehicles at least.
Most Stagecoach divisions also have ‘reserve fleets’ they can pick vehicles from. I know Stagecoach South have one with a number of Pointer-bodied Darts in it at the moment which could be used, for example, as well as what can be transferred from other divisions.I think Stagecoach will probably get cascaded buses from other areas where new buses have just replaced them, in order to cover the PVR required for the ex Arriva routes. Would love it if it were Tridents or Scanias, but I think the most likely case will be E200s.
Your thoughts & PVR numbers are exactly the same as mine, the only problem would be finding a suitable site!Quick "back of a fag packet" calculation, I think the 91 requires five vehicles and the 34/35 requires ten, so a combined peak vehicle requirement (PVR) of fifteen for the Woking 34/35/91 additions. I believe the current Woking operation (33, 39A/B/C, 40, 81) require two vehicles on paper, but you often see three in town as one has an extended layover between trips on the 417 and other routes, presumably to cover driver break(s) on the 81.
So with a Woking area PVR of say seventeen, a Woking outstation could have a good proportion of decent commercial work running out of it to in theory make it worthwhile and secure, as well as making space at Peasmarsh for the new Guildford area routes. A Woking outstation could also prove handy to reduce dead running on existing school/college routes such as the tendered Collingwood College 83, 84 and 87 (from Bagshot, St Johns and Chobham respectively), and perhaps their commercial Chobham to Farnborough Tech College 417. It could also act as a potential base for future expansion if they wished to go for more Surrey tendered work to supplement the commercial work, particularly that currently in the hands of White Bus and Falcon? Ambitious perhaps, but then they clearly mean business if they're taking so much on now.
Talking of the Guildford work that also needs accommodating, the 53/63 I make to be a PVR of six, and the 36/37 five (assuming this new route 6 is indeed a like-for-like replacement of those circulars). So all in, the 6/34/35/53/63/91 additions registered today are at least twenty-six vehicles, if current frequencies are retained (and my maths is right!).
I guess the 34/35 wouldn't be end of the world to be jointly worked between Aldershot and Peasmarsh from the Camberley and Guildford ends respectively (I believe the KITE switched from Aldershot to Peasmarsh, then joint, but now primarily Aldershot again but with a few morning trips worked by Peasmarsh). But then when you factor in Peasmarsh is surely the most logical place to house the 6/53/63's potential eleven PVR, that still leaves the potential further fifteen route 34/35/91 vehicles either needing a home or squeezing in somewhere!
And we still don't know for certain what's happening with the 479's four PVR. There doesn't appear to be any variation showing up on their current registration hinting that they may be taking on the Monday to Saturday service to join their existing Sunday operation, but maybe that's still to come? But then they can't take on everything... surely? That and the 18 are tendered, so maybe nothing has been decided yet, with Surrey County Council first seeing what people are prepared to cover commercially, and now putting together tenders for the remainder?
All a new operator requires is some sort of hardstanding and basic facilities such as a small workshop building or at the minimum, a shed to house consumable items such as oil/water etc. Such hardstanding can be found on an industrial estate. You'd also need some means for drivers to pay in the cash takings -but that can be scheduled in such a way that they visit a home depot during the course of their working day. You'll also want some means of refuelling the buses - that again can be done by a vehicle working into a home depot - or you have a fuel card that enables the vehicle to visit a filling station and draw fuel at the end of the working day. This tends to be normal for coach companies when a coach is away on tour for instance.Your thoughts & PVR numbers are exactly the same as mine, the only problem would be finding a suitable site!
I remember that Alder Valley had a unit on the Goldsworth Ind' estate back in the late 80's, estate probably fully occupied now.
Warehouse/Depot sized parking facilities are pretty thin on the ground these days but who knows? Just a yard with a fence.
I did think that as a 'quick fix' @ 12 buses could be parked at the Friary bus stn but security/safety would be an issue.
Another possibility might be to to apply for operating licences for some of the Park & Ride sites, I know that vehicles are currently parked at Artington (but not kept overnight) I imagine that a bit of parking space would be available at Onslow & Merrow P&Rs, again security & safety issues but it could help short term.
Remember this is affluent Surrey we are talking about, available facilities are in short supply.All a new operator requires is some sort of hardstanding and basic facilities such as a small workshop building or at the minimum, a shed to house consumable items such as oil/water etc. Such hardstanding can be found on an industrial estate. You'd also need some means for drivers to pay in the cash takings -but that can be scheduled in such a way that they visit a home depot during the course of their working day. You'll also want some means of refuelling the buses - that again can be done by a vehicle working into a home depot - or you have a fuel card that enables the vehicle to visit a filling station and draw fuel at the end of the working day. This tends to be normal for coach companies when a coach is away on tour for instance.
A corner of a hauliers yard with a pressure hose could be sufficient for a few buses.
Applying for operator licences is in effect a paper exercise for larger operators. They do have some room on their operators licences in the sense not all the discs authorised will be taken up -so all that is needed is to locate a suitable site, obtain suitable vehicles (if needs be diverting brand new deliveries that way), recruit sufficient driving staff and off they go. However if your vehicles are collecting prohibition notices when DVSA inspectors come visiting, you're not going to be given more discs! I don't think that's an issue for any of the prospective replacement operators here, though.
It's this sort of practical help the council can provide - parking and suchlike, or helping with the planning application for a depot site in a change of use. Or the need to approve a short notice application to register a replacement bus service. Surrey will have operators they can turn to, as is being shown here to operate replacement services and most councils will have plans in place for this type of situation.
Remember this is affluent Surrey we are talking about, available facilities are in short supply.
Parcel/Internet delivery companies have been snapping up sites.(And keeping rental/leasing prices high).
I am sure that short term solutions can be found, it's medium term that is the issue.
I would love to see Stagecoach buy the former ADL site on Slyfield and convert it to a large Bus depot with parking for 80+ buses, state of the art engineering facilities, bus wash, with space for Electric charging equipment and ample staff parking, that would be very expensive, and they would likely be outbid.
Post covid may not be the time for large cap-ex outlay in what may be a shrunken marketplace.
I guess it could also be argued Stagecoach already venture out there on the Sunday 479 (as well as out beyond Dorking on the 32), with Falcon having taken on a few routes centred on Epsom last year with a commitment of four vehicles Mon-Fri (two on Sat).The 479 is more interesting - a tendril striking out some distance from Stagecoach land and a much bigger ask away from Falcon's home turf... we will have to wait and see.
I appreciate that Stagecoach do that as do FalconI guess it could also be argued Stagecoach already venture out there on the Sunday 479 (as well as out beyond Dorking on the 32), with Falcon having taken on a few routes centred on Epsom last year with a commitment of four vehicles Mon-Fri (two on Sat).
With an outstation at Horsell it's a wonder that Whitebus didn't register the 91.Surely, the upshot is that whatever the whys and wherefores, Stagecoach have decided that they want the main Guildford to Camberley corridor (as I suggested they would) and the Guildford to Cranleigh/Horsham corridor that passes relatively close to Peasmarsh. That they can obtain vehicles is no issue, but sufficient drivers for anyone (even with some Arriva ones looking for a job) will be the challenge. Obtaining space for additional vehicles is a challenge but not as difficult as is being suggested. Expect some rejigging of allocations and perhaps securing an overflow yard in the short term; depends how good terms they are with their neighbours?
The only slight surprise is that Stagecoach are going for the 91 but then again, you can understand the attraction of that route. I did mention Hallmark/Diamond being interested potentially in parts of the network and the 436 was very much the one I was thinking of, though it would also have made sense for Falcon. The 479 is more interesting - a tendril striking out some distance from Stagecoach land and a much bigger ask away from Falcon's home turf... we will have to wait and see.
I'd suggest White Bus didn't register the 91 as they knew it would be coveted by larger operators and it's quite a leap for a firm that has routes with one or two vehicles to go for one with half a dozen used intensively.With an outstation at Horsell it's a wonder that Whitebus didn't register the 91.
Also, as you say, the 436 might have made sense for Byfleet based Falcon.
Can only assume that in the current job climate, that these 2 operators are not confident that they can recruit enough drivers.
The 479 runs right past Reptons depot in Bookham, they already operate the (tendered) 478 but their combined fleet(coaches & buses) is only around 10, so the 479 with a PVR of 4 would represent a massive expansion.
The 18, 479 and Sunday 3 are Surrey tenders and, assuming Arriva have given notice to terminate them, Surrey will presumably put them out to tender again. I guess no-one will register them unless and until they win the tender. Stagecoach might have bid for the 479 but then again they might not.I'd suggest White Bus didn't register the 91 as they knew it would be coveted by larger operators and it's quite a leap for a firm that has routes with one or two vehicles to go for one with half a dozen used intensively.
The 479 is the real oddity and Stagecoach have not thrown their hat in the ring. They DO have form in running similarly challenging routes (e.g. 715) but you can see why they would want to concentrate on the more attractive routes "on offer"
There hasn't been a short notice registration by Stagecoach for the 479 was what I was alluding to. Similarly, for the reasons I suggest, they have enough on their plate at the moment to cover the 53/63, 34-37 and 91. That's the stuff that they really want, so you could forgive them for politely declining the 479.The 18, 479 and Sunday 3 are Surrey tenders and, assuming Arriva have given notice to terminate them, Surrey will presumably put them out to tender again. I guess no-one will register them unless and until they win the tender. Stagecoach might have bid for the 479 but then again they might not.
The A and C will probably not run again, they are not 'necessary' and, given driver shortages, are not a priority for anyone. The 28 can be fitted in at the last moment by someone, if important.
I wonder if Stagecoach, or anyone else, is recruiting drivers from Leas Road.
Logistical issues for Stagecoach given space constraints but maybe they can run the 34/35 from Aldershot with reliefs at Camberley, perhaps also each 34/35 arriving at Guildford could then do a 6 in each direction (36/37) before they return. Or find an outstation near Woking and do the same. Lots of options, just not much time!
Given its location within the Slyfield estate I think that opening a depot on the ADL site would be an absolute nightmare. I spent almost 3 months there earlier in the year and found it a struggle to get in/out of there with a van let alone a fleet of buses. And that was me going in there around 7am so God only knows what carnage would be caused trying to get buses out of there for the morning services.Remember this is affluent Surrey we are talking about, available facilities are in short supply.
Parcel/Internet delivery companies have been snapping up sites.(And keeping rental/leasing prices high).
I am sure that short term solutions can be found, it's medium term that is the issue.
I would love to see Stagecoach buy the former ADL site on Slyfield and convert it to a large Bus depot with parking for 80+ buses, state of the art engineering facilities, bus wash, with space for Electric charging equipment and ample staff parking, that would be very expensive, and they would likely be outbid.
Post covid may not be the time for large cap-ex outlay in what may be a shrunken marketplace.
The 479 is more interesting - a tendril striking out some distance from Stagecoach land and a much bigger ask away from Falcon's home turf... we will have to wait and see.
I guess we don’t know for certain that Stagecoach haven’t gotten (or won’t get) involved in tendering for the 479 - just not wanting to take it on commercially. Given the only replacements registered by anyone so far are commercial routes and their associated subsidised evening/Sunday services (possibly done as de minimis payments either within payment threshold or short term to secure service), I’m wondering if priority so far has been to see who is prepared to register what commercially first, with the council now assessing what’s left and complaining tenders for the leftovers, including the 479. Certainly an operator I work for has had communication about whether they wish to take anything on commercially, but as yet no invitations for tenders have been sent out.The 479 is the real oddity and Stagecoach have not thrown their hat in the ring. They DO have form in running similarly challenging routes (e.g. 715) but you can see why they would want to concentrate on the more attractive routes "on offer"
Yes - we don't know what might happen but as I said, Stagecoach haven't made a registration for the 479 yet. They could, of course, go in for it under tender and ordinarily, they probably would. However, with a finite amount of depot space and available drivers, I'm of the view that it wouldn't be surprising if they declined it in order to concentrate on the more lucrative registrations that they have already made - that's all I'm suggesting.I guess we don’t know for certain that Stagecoach haven’t gotten (or won’t get) involved in tendering for the 479 - just not wanting to take it on commercially. Given the only replacements registered by anyone so far are commercial routes and their associated subsidised evening/Sunday services (possibly done as de minimis payments either within payment threshold or short term to secure service), I’m wondering if priority so far has been to see who is prepared to register what commercially first, with the council now assessing what’s left and complaining tenders for the leftovers, including the 479. Certainly an operator I work for has had communication about whether they wish to take anything on commercially, but as yet no invitations for tenders have been sent out.
It would be a big jump at short notice for them though, more than doubling their bus fleet and driving staff. I really can’t see them being the ones to take it on personally.I would not rule out the possibility of Reptons running the 479, considering that they currently run the similar but shorter 478.
It would be a big jump at short notice for them though, more than doubling their bus fleet and driving staff. I really can’t see them being the ones to take it on personally.
Also the last legacy of London Country/London Country South West/London Transport country area in Surrey, The following depots all sold & demolished: -Certainly, Stagecoach must be very pleased with their work. A very effective strategy yielding the result they wanted; seems reminiscent of how things turned out with First in Northampton. As another aside, should Stagecoach consolidate their position in Woking and Guildford, it will (with the added former London Country ops) almost see the restoration of the former Alder Valley South, some 30 years after things were split apart under Q Drive
I worked on Slyfield briefly about 10 years ago, and would agree, during the daytime a nightmare to get in & out of, I am sure the traffic has got worse but it would probably be ok 6 - 6.30am when most buses start.Given its location within the Slyfield estate I think that opening a depot on the ADL site would be an absolute nightmare. I spent almost 3 months there earlier in the year and found it a struggle to get in/out of there with a van let alone a fleet of buses. And that was me going in there around 7am so God only knows what carnage would be caused trying to get buses out of there for the morning services.
If they were allowed to build a dedicated road from the plant to Jacobs Well Road then that would certainly help but as it is, even early in the morning, getting in and out with a van is difficult due to the number of trucks that are parked up on the roads. Having to negotiate a 10/11m bus round Dennis Way, North Moors and Westfield Rd would be a nightmare at most times of the day let alone early morning.Also the last legacy of London Country/London Country South West/London Transport country area in Surrey, The following depots all sold & demolished: -
Staines, Addlestone, Leatherhead, Dorking, Godstone, Chelsham. (The shell of Reigate survives, in use as a kindergarten).
I worked on Slyfield briefly about 10 years ago, and would agree, during the daytime a nightmare to get in & out of, I am sure the traffic has got worse but it would probably be ok 6 - 6.30am when most buses start.
There have been plans to provide another exit route to Jacobs Well/Burpham, some additional roads (currently unused have been constructed north of the recycling facility) and in the last week the council has given the go-ahead for a large 'urban village' housing development & new Sewage treatment plant to be constructed on the west side of Slyfield.
It would be a big jump at short notice for them though, more than doubling their bus fleet and driving staff. I really can’t see them being the ones to take it on personally.
I would go with @Flange Squeal analysis. It's a massive step up for a firm that does a few low frequency bits and pieces. An intensive 4 vehicle tender - just cannot see it.I see your point, that's true. But that would be straight forward, current Arriva 479 drivers could move to Reptons and Reptons could temporarily use the GN07 E200s at Arriva before they order their own stuff.
I wouldn't say surprising as such, it's one of the best routes and even without a closer base, they'd be running it from Guildford so no different to Arriva.The only slight surprise is that Stagecoach are going for the 91 but then again, you can understand the attraction of that route. I did mention Hallmark/Diamond being interested potentially in parts of the network and the 436 was very much the one I was thinking of, though it would also have made sense for Falcon.
That is the stuff of pure fantasy, what would be in it for Arriva to even bother with coming to such arrangements, particularly when the main, commercial routes are already being picked off one by one with no arrangements?I see your point, that's true. But that would be straight forward, current Arriva 479 drivers could move to Reptons and Reptons could temporarily use the GN07 E200s at Arriva before they order their own stuff.
I did say only a slight surprise. I wondered if Diamond would go for it and whether with the 34-37 and 53/63, that might be enough for Stagecoach to take on with the pressures on depot space/driver resource. However, appreciate that the 91 is one of the stronger performers historically.I wouldn't say surprising as such, it's one of the best routes and even without a closer base, they'd be running it from Guildford so no different to Arriva.
The 34/35 and 91 are greater than the sum of their parts in so far as one operator running both has complete coverage and fares availability over the common sections of route (and they're really the only 'proper' routes on that side of Woking).