Avanti West Coast Cancellations

[uww11x]

Hi all,

I was wondering if anyone knew if there's any issues with Avanti currently? Cancellations seem to of spiked in the last week with a lot more cancelled today.

Sickness? Work to rule? Just not enough traincrew?

 

[43066]

Hi all,

I was wondering if anyone knew if there's any issues with Avanti currently? Cancellations seem to of spiked in the last week with a lot more cancelled today.

Sickness? Work to rule? Just not enough traincrew?

Not enough traincrew, higher sickness levels, lack of motivation/willingness to help out due to poor industrial relations.

No formal (as in union initiated) work to rule, that would have been officially announced, but if the workforce is demotivated people simply won’t help out.

 

[Deafdoggie]

I think basically it's just going into a spiral of decline. The staff don't like the management, so simply do the job and go home. They aren't doing any extra or working rest days, apart from those who really need the money.
The question really is, how far are both sides prepared to let it go? The government have said they aren't prepared to throw endless money at the railways, are they seeing how much services can be cut back? At the end of the day Avanti are cancelling more & more trains but the country is still going. And they've taken more staff on, so there's an argument to say more staff (and expense) isn't the answer.

 

[sonic2009]

Does there come a time where the franchise is taken away?

 

[Deafdoggie]

Does there come a time where the franchise is taken away?

Possibly. Would it make a difference? It's the same people, doing the same jobs, wearing a different uniform

 

[Buffer stop]

£600 a shift rest day work agreement should resolve some of this.

 

[Deafdoggie]

£600 a shift rest day work agreement should resolve some of this.

Cancelling trains is cheaper

 

[43066]

I think basically it's just going into a spiral of decline. The staff don't like the management, so simply do the job and go home. They aren't doing any extra or working rest days, apart from those who really need the money.
The question really is, how far are both sides prepared to let it go? The government have said they aren't prepared to throw endless money at the railways, are they seeing how much services can be cut back? At the end of the day Avanti are cancelling more & more trains but the country is still going. And they've taken more staff on, so there's an argument to say more staff (and expense) isn't the answer.

“Endless money” certainly isn’t required but until the wider dispute ends, which will only happen when the DfT changes its approach and allows a good faith negotiation, things aren't likely to improve.

Does there come a time where the franchise is taken away?

As above, that won’t make any difference.

Cancelling trains is cheaper

Wrong.

 

[footprints]

Around 60 cancellations last Saturday, 30 on Monday, plus all the partial cancellations. Sunday seems the only day they run close to a full service.

 

[Peter0124]

Cancelling trains is cheaper

Probably not long term when people slowly stop using the trains, or use them less frequently because of it.

 

[renegademaster]

A cancelled 9 car pendelino must be an awful lot in delay repay too

 

[43066]

Probably not long term when people slowly stop using the trains, or use them less frequently because of it.

And not in the short term. If a train is cancelled due to no driver (who would generally work more than one train in their hypothetical £600 shift), delay repay alone could equal many thousands per train!

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Does there come a time where the franchise is taken away?

Things would have to be really bad for that, seeing as the contract was only recently renewed.
And OLR-operated "franchises" (contracts) are not immune from cancellations or the same industrial relations dispute either.

 

[Deafdoggie]

Probably not long term when people slowly stop using the trains, or use them less frequently because of it.

And not in the short term. If a train is cancelled due to no driver (who would generally work more than one train in their hypothetical £600 shift), delay repay alone could equal many thousands per train!

Wrong.

The DfT view will almost certainly be, it is better to spend less money now and lose some passengers, then reduce the service to meet lower demand, and reduce long term costs, rather than spend money trying to keep passengers you have and thus having to keep the service you currently have.
it's not a totally flawed business argument, supermarkets use a similar argument & they are big businesses. How much money do you spend keeping customers? Particularly if it's cheaper to lose some and lose the costs that go with them. We're just in early stages where it suits neither business nor customers at the moment. But something will give. It has to.

 

[The Planner]

The DfT view will almost certainly be, it is better to spend less money now and lose some passengers, then reduce the service to meet lower demand, and reduce long term costs, rather than spend money trying to keep passengers you have and thus having to keep the service you currently have.
it's not a totally flawed business argument, supermarkets use a similar argument & they are big businesses. How much money do you spend keeping customers? Particularly if it's cheaper to lose some and lose the costs that go with them. We're just in early stages where it suits neither business nor customers at the moment. But something will give. It has to.

Bear in mind the WCML is the biggest cash cow DfT has in terms of rail. It won't want to lose that income.

 

[Deafdoggie]

Bear in mind the WCML is the biggest cash cow DfT has in terms of rail. It won't want to lose that income.

I didn't say their view was the right one! But I suspect there's an accountant who won't sign the cheque to pay for extra staff!

 

[43066]

The DfT view will almost certainly be, it is better to spend less money now and lose some passengers, then reduce the service to meet lower demand, and reduce long term costs, rather than spend money trying to keep passengers you have and thus having to keep the service you currently have.

But they aren’t spending less money when cancelling trains leads to delay repay claims etc., and revenue shortfalls are covered by the public purse anyway. It’s pretty clear that there isn’t any “strategy” at all.

 

[Idon'tKnow]

I've noticed a lot more cancellations at Lichfield TV on Avanti with no alternatives provided. Disgraceful that people paying top dollar for Avanti/Any Permitted tickets and being forced onto the slum express LNR! As a comparison, virgin always replaced a cancelled Lichfield train with an additional stop on another service, normally within 10 minutes of the original departure time too. It's perplexing that Avanti cancels so many of the Chester/ N. Wales services when they're running half of the trains compared to pre-covid on the route.

 

[Howardh]

Will a change of government have any short of medium term affect? Must admit I haven't read of Labours plan for rail in general and Avanti in particular but I suppose that's on hold until the manifesto?

Point being the sooner we are either shut of Avanti or at least have them improved the better, and TPE of course.

 

[800001]

Cancelling trains is cheaper

It really isn’t!
Think about delay repay, any refunds of people decide to travel!
Cancelling far out days paying £600 to get some crew to work a train

 

[Jan Mayen]

I don't suppose reducing the timetable to a level where we don't have to rely on staff doing Rest Day Working is an option?

 

[Deafdoggie]

I don't suppose reducing the timetable to a level where we don't have to rely on staff doing Rest Day Working is an option?

That's what I'm suggesting DfT are working towards, and thus saving money

It really isn’t!
Think about delay repay, any refunds of people decide to travel!
Cancelling far out days paying £600 to get some crew to work a train

Only until you've dampened demand and can then reduce the timetable.

 

[Hazlehead]

Things would have to be really bad for that, seeing as the contract was only recently renewed.
And OLR-operated "franchises" (contracts) are not immune from cancellations or the same industrial relations dispute either.

Speaking to someone 'in the know' the other day & there's a strong rumour that an announcement is expected next week on West Coast becoming OLR

 

[bengley]

Speaking to someone 'in the know' the other day & there's a strong rumour that an announcement is expected next week on West Coast becoming OLR

I have also heard this from someone who works for the company. Seems internal rumours are that a big meeting is taking place with a possible announcement of some kind on the 21st

 

[43066]

That's what I'm suggesting DfT are working towards, and thus saving money

But that isn’t going to save money. The alternatives is increasing headcount to remove rest day working and that will cost more than paying people to do overtime. If you reduce the timetable you’re still left with high fixed costs, and a reduction in revenue to cover them, that will massively outweigh paying for rest day work.

I don’t know how many times that has been pointed out, I suspect some just can’t see beyond drivers earning good money for overtime.

Only until you've dampened demand and can then reduce the timetable.

It’s pretty obvious that there’s no overall strategy at all, just a government induced state of paralysis preventing the individual companies from resolving the issues affecting reliability.

I have also heard this from someone who works for the company. Seems internal rumours are that a big meeting is taking place with a possible announcement of some kind on the 21st

I wonder if the DfT will then permit a RDW agreement to be signed, to cause an immediate improvement in performance they can take credit for, as they did at TPE.

EDIT: ASLEF have apparently just agreed a £600 per day RDW agreement at Avanti…. Post #6 is clearly well informed .

 

[Fisherman80]

There were a few cancellations from Glasgow on the afternoon of Saturday the 9th March. The 1730 departure from Glasgow to London was packed and the train was declassified. I got off at Lancaster where there must have been a couple of hundred Wrexham fans boarding an already packed train.......I'm glad I wasn't travelling further!

 

[Rover77]

21st March. Watch this space. Big news coming. Fingers crossed no more first group on the wcml.

 

[43066]

21st March. Watch this space. Big news coming. Fingers crossed no more first group on the wcml.

I expect the new RDW agreement will improve things drastically and, as I suspected, is strategically timed…

 

[vicbury]

I expect the new RDW agreement will improve things drastically and, as I suspected, is strategically timed…

Is the Government leaving itself to being sued by FristGroup if they are stripped of their contract for poor performance when the performance was out of their hands?

 

[43066]

Is the Government leaving itself to being sued by FristGroup if they are stripped of their contract for poor performance when the performance was out of their hands?

That will all depend on the wording of the relevant contracts, and the reason for termination.

To be clear I don’t work for Avanti, and I have no idea whether movement to the OLR is what will be announced on 21st, however I have seen details of the RDW agreement. There will no doubt be a press release from ASLEF at some point.