Avanti West Coast Withdraws Shrewsbury Service From June 2024

[Energy]

The actual reason numbers were not high recently is the huge number of cancellations on this route (the 18-16pm Avanti Euston-Shrewsbury has been cancelled or terminated at Wolverhampton virtually every day for the last month) and this totally unreliability is part of a 'managed decline' by the Dft/Avanti - No one is going to spend almost £200 on a peak return for such a poor service!

Fair enough

A reliable, better timed and affordable direct train to London from Shrewsbury would be popular and would grow the market.

Would it? WSMR's journey times were poor but so far London to Shrewsbury hasn't worked for BR, Virgin, WSMR, and Avanti. And the market Virgin later targeted of business travelers has been eroded by Teams and Zoom.

 

[dk1]

Would it? WSMR's journey times were poor but so far London to Shrewsbury hasn't worked for BR, Virgin, WSMR, and Avanti. And the market Virgin later targeted of business travelers has been eroded by Teams and Zoom.

It does seem to be a reoccurring pattern.

 

[Bletchleyite]

It does seem to be a reoccurring pattern.

In the end Shrewsbury isn't very big and a half hourly connection is more attractive than a once per day through service.

 

[dk1]

In the end Shrewsbury isn't very big and a half hourly connection is more attractive than a once per day through service.

I have to agree mate.

 

[A S Leib]

In the end Shrewsbury isn't very big and a half hourly connection is more attractive than a once per day through service.

I think the best option short of direct services would be 2 tph from Wolverhampton to Euston or 2 tph from Shrewsbury to Birmingham International, reducing any (perceived) need to change at Birmingham New Street, but I suspect that there's not enough capacity.

 

[Wolfie]

completely agree - this was managed decline by the Dft/Avanti, there has been no marketing/specialoffers/publicity and added to that a service with only peak hour trains with huge fares which were regularly fully cancelled or part cancelled at Wolverhampton.

Agreed. I regularly travelled between London and Telford and never used the direct Avanti service which was massively unreliable and extortionately expensive.

In the end Shrewsbury isn't very big and a half hourly connection is more attractive than a once per day through service.

Really? Says the man who regularly bangs on about a meaningless Herts branch line?

As far as I am concerned, the handful of direct trains was an irrelevance. Work colleagues going to London continued to drive to Stafford or Warwick Parkway. The slow crawl to Wolves, and then onto Coventry, was not attractive.

Absolutely.

 

[Class 170101]

As far as I am concerned, the handful of direct trains was an irrelevance. Work colleagues going to London continued to drive to Stafford or Warwick Parkway. The slow crawl to Wolves, and then onto Coventry, was not attractive.

Would they have preferred the Shrewsbury to Stafford (reverse) then forward to Euston service that Vrgin proposed?

 

[43066]

Really? Says the man who regularly bangs on about a meaningless Herts branch line?

To be fair the Marston Vale is at least in the Southeast, and therefore may well be more relevant in economic terms than a direct link between London and Shrewsbury, which is closer to Wales than it is even to Birmingham, and indirectly connects by rail with London via an easy interchange, in any case.

In opportunity cost terms, do we really to make London to Brum/Manc less reliable, due to units/crews being wasted running direct trains to Shrewsbury that nobody really uses?

 

[Wolfie]

To be fair the Marston Vale is at least in the Southeast, and therefore may well be more relevant in economic terms than a direct link between London and Shrewsbury, which is closer to Wales than it is even to Birmingham, and indirectly connects by rail with London via an easy interchange, in any case.

In opportunity cost terms, do we really to make London to Brum/Manc less reliable, due to units/crews being wasted running direct trains to Shrewsbury that nobody really uses?

Rather hard to use a "service" which was pretty much perma-cancelled. The Marston Vale should have been replaced with a bus at least 30 years ago. That is what would have happened in most of the country so....

Oh, l live in London (Islington) incidentally.....

 

[Bletchleyite]

The Marston Vale should have been replaced with a bus at least 30 years ago. That is what would have happened in most of the country so....

Eh? You'd also replace most of Northern with a bus? There's nothing particularly remarkable about it.

 

[victormildrew]

Correct me if i'm wrong here. I thought that Avanti were given a second chance with the franchise from the Government because of crewing and cancellations etc?, they don't seem to have done much about it with the amount of trains being cancelled due to train crew.

 

[Krokodil]

Who would have thought that a service that ran once per day in each direction, cost £310 return, and was cancelled on a weekly basis would have low passenger numbers?

These days a token 1tpd service is pointless for a medium distance journey. You either run a regular service (say a minimum of every two hours) or you shouldn't bother at all. It's only the very longest journeys (I'm going to say 500 miles or more) where token services can attract passengers.

Oh, l live in London (Islington) incidentally.....

I think that's far north enough of SW1 to qualify for some Network North funding...

 

[Wolfie]

Who would have thought that a service that ran once per day in each direction, cost £310 return, and was cancelled on a weekly basis would have low passenger numbers?

These days a token 1tpd service is pointless for a medium distance journey. You either run a regular service (say a minimum of every two hours) or you shouldn't bother at all. It's only the very longest journeys (I'm going to say 500 miles or more) where token services can attract passengers.


I think that's far north enough of SW1 to qualify for some Network North funding...

I love that sarky ending.... It is N1 after all, lol

Incidentally l am in violent agreement with the rear of your post.

 

[43066]

Rather hard to use a "service" which was pretty much perma-cancelled. The Marston Vale should have been replaced with a bus at least 30 years ago. That is what would have happened in most of the country so....

I don’t really understand your point here, especially as you seem to be agreeing upthread that the withdrawal of the Shrewsbury-London service is sensible.

The “perma-cancellation” of the Marston Vale was regrettable, and due to some poor decisions by various parties, and it’s at least now starting to run again. If you think likes like that in the Southeast should have been closed, presumably you’d get rid of most of the northern ones, too? If you were against closures elsewhere, as I think you might be, it still doesn’t make sense to argue that this particular line should have been closed just because others were!

Oh, l live in London (Islington) incidentally.....

I’m fully aware, we have discussed at length before, but what does that have to do with anything?

 

[Wolfie]

I don’t really understand your point here, especially as you seem to be agreeing upthread that the withdrawal of the Shrewsbury-London service is sensible.

The “perma-cancellation” of the Marston Vale was regrettable, and due to some poor decisions by various parties, and it’s at least now starting to run again. If you think likes like that in the Southeast should have been closed, presumably you’d get rid of most of the northern ones, too? If you were against closures elsewhere, as I think you might be, it still doesn’t make sense to argue that this particular line should have been closed just because others were!



I’m fully aware, we have discussed at length before, but what does that have to do with anything?

I was actually referring to the London to Shrewsbury service with my perma-cancelled comment. Look at how often it got past Wolverhampton.

 

[Krokodil]

Interesting to compare with Hereford. Both county towns a similar distance from London. Shrewsbury (with its 40% larger population) sees 20% more London passengers than Hereford does and yet the latter has four times the number of direct departures. Why is Avanti's Shrewsbury service deemed uneconomic when GWR's Hereford services aren't?

I do wonder if the fact that there are more journeys between Hereford and London per capita than between Shrewsbury and London is an illustration of the effect that having a direct service has on demand.

 

[D365]

EMR token service to Leeds

The Leeds extensions were only ever a by-product of the HSTs being based at Neville Hill.

 

[A S Leib]

Interesting to compare with Hereford. Both county towns a similar distance from London. Shrewsbury (with its 40% larger population) sees 20% more London passengers than Hereford does and yet the latter has four times the number of direct departures. Why is Avanti's Shrewsbury service deemed uneconomic when GWR's Hereford services aren't?

I do wonder if the fact that there are more journeys between Hereford and London per capita than between Shrewsbury and London is an illustration of the effect that having a direct service has on demand.

The fact that Great Malvern's closer to Hereford than Birmingham is to Shrewsbury, and only having one other tph between Worcester and Hereford instead of 2 (or 3 pre-Covid / from June) west of Wolverhampton?

 

[Deafdoggie]

The actual reason numbers were not high recently is the huge number of cancellations on this route (the 18-16pm Avanti Euston-Shrewsbury has been cancelled or terminated at Wolverhampton virtually every day for the last month) and this totally unreliability is part of a 'managed decline' by the Dft/Avanti - No one is going to spend almost £200 on a peak return for such a poor service! A reliable, better timed and affordable direct train to London from Shrewsbury would be popular and would grow the market.

Surely cancelling a lightly used train is better than cancelling one you knew would be full & standing?

 

[Phil from Mon]

Correct me if i'm wrong here. I thought that Avanti were given a second chance with the franchise from the Government because of crewing and cancellations etc?, they don't seem to have done much about it with the amount of trains being cancelled due to train crew.

Same on Monday. They cancelled the 1302 Euston to Chester (and again today apparently) and the 1202 didn’t get further than Crewe as they didn’t have a driver. At least we got delay repay sorted within 3 days though.

 

[Krokodil]

The fact that Great Malvern's closer to Hereford than Birmingham is to Shrewsbury, and only having one other tph between Worcester and Hereford instead of 2 (or 3 pre-Covid / from June) west of Wolverhampton?

Great Malvern itself seeing fewer London passengers than Telford does. Worcester Shrub Hill has a similar number again, the trains don't get properly busy until Oxford.

Of course the main difference is that the London-Worcester service is not in addition to stopping services, it IS the stopping service. The fact that it's operated by Intercity rolling stock is a consequence of our DMU shortage, it used to be mostly Turbos. If Shrewsbury is ever to sustain a direct London service, it would have to be as an extension of the Aberystwyth - International trains. That way it's not duplicating an existing service. Doing so would require more joined-up thinking than the fragmented railway allows for, but at least a path would be readily available once HS2 has taken some of the existing Birmingham traffic.

 

[Doctor Fegg]

Of course the main difference is that the London-Worcester service is not in addition to stopping services, it IS the stopping service. The fact that it's operated by Intercity rolling stock is a consequence of our DMU shortage, it used to be mostly Turbos.

No it isn't. It's a consequence of FGW seeing potential for revenue growth in the Cotswold market, and investing in improving service provision. The move to Intercity-quality rolling stock for (most) Cotswold Line trains dates back to the First Great Western Link era, before the DMU shortage.

From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Great_Western_Link:

A franchise commitment was to use five Class 180 Adelantes from sister company First Great Western on Cotswold Line services from December 2004

 

[Energy]

Of course the main difference is that the London-Worcester service is not in addition to stopping services, it IS the stopping service. The fact that it's operated by Intercity rolling stock is a consequence of our DMU shortage, it used to be mostly Turbos. If Shrewsbury is ever to sustain a direct London service

It was operated by turbos because of a HST shortage, the Cotswold and Oxford services were quick to get bumped to a turbo to ensure that South Wales, Penzance etc. could get a HST.

Cotswold Line has a very different flow to Shrewsbury. For example Charlbury's top 5 in the destination matrix are below, it has a lot of London journeys. Given the people the Cotswolds attract (such as David Cameron), it isn't suprising that it has good traffic to London, so keeping the stopper attached to an Oxford - London makes sense.

	From	To	Total
1	Charlbury	London Paddington	72594
2	Charlbury	Oxford	39251
3	Charlbury	Reading	3612
4	Charlbury	Moreton-in-Marsh	1155
5	Charlbury	Worcester Foregate Street	517

Meanwhile for Shrewsbury the main flow is to Birmingham. The numbers to London Euston are quite good at 50000 (average 136 a day) but this is a terminus station.

	From	To	Total
1	Shrewsbury	Birmingham New Street	109834
2	Shrewsbury	Wellington (Shropshire)	100053
3	Shrewsbury	Telford Central	62745
4	Shrewsbury	London Euston	52452
5	Shrewsbury	Wolverhampton	41836

 

[YorkRailFan]

Meanwhile for Shrewsbury the main flow is to Birmingham. The numbers to London Euston are quite good at 50000 (average 136 a day) but this is a terminus station.

It would be fascinating to know how many passengers split their tickets at Wolverhampton or Birmingham when traveling between Shrewsbury and London Euston.

 

[steve099]

There has been a marked rise in split ticketing (enough that I have heard announcements that make reference to them), which makes me question the numbers, too - as I would have a number whereby my tickets might be Shrewsbury-Birmingham, Birmingham-Milton Keynes, Milton Keynes-Euston - even though my journey is Shrewsbury to Euston.

Just want to add that the analysis of numbers should take in Telford and Wellington to Euston journeys, not just Shrewsbury in isolation.

 

[Starmill]

Eh? You'd also replace most of Northern with a bus? There's nothing particularly remarkable about it.

Most Northern services go to at least one major centre for demand, which is walkable off the trains (Manchester Airport, Leeds, Newcastle, Liverpool Lime Street, and so on). Neither Bletchley nor Bedford are anything like that. The Marston Vale is a bit like the Barton branch service on EMR or the Dumfries - Carlisle corridor on ScotRail, or the Preston - Ormskirk service.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Most Northern services go to at least one major centre for demand, which is walkable off the trains (Manchester Airport, Leeds, Newcastle, Liverpool Lime Street, and so on). Neither Bletchley nor Bedford are anything like that. The Marston Vale is a bit like the Barton branch service on EMR or the Dumfries - Carlisle corridor on ScotRail, or the Preston - Ormskirk service.

Yes, so like plenty of Northern. It's clearly not like Manchester Airport-Blackpool (which has more in common with the Euston-MKC stopper), but a very large chunk of Northern connects not very big places with not very big places via not very big places.

 

[MCR247]

Interesting to compare with Hereford. Both county towns a similar distance from London. Shrewsbury (with its 40% larger population) sees 20% more London passengers than Hereford does and yet the latter has four times the number of direct departures. Why is Avanti's Shrewsbury service deemed uneconomic when GWR's Hereford services aren't?

I do wonder if the fact that there are more journeys between Hereford and London per capita than between Shrewsbury and London is an illustration of the effect that having a direct service has on demand.

I think that logic would only work if the trains were non-stop to/from London

 

[Energy]

It would be fascinating to know how many passengers split their tickets at Wolverhampton or Birmingham when traveling between Shrewsbury and London Euston.

Yes, I'll see if I can find some older data which predates at least trainline doing split ticketing.

 

[jimm]

Interesting to compare with Hereford. Both county towns a similar distance from London. Shrewsbury (with its 40% larger population) sees 20% more London passengers than Hereford does and yet the latter has four times the number of direct departures. Why is Avanti's Shrewsbury service deemed uneconomic when GWR's Hereford services aren't?

I do wonder if the fact that there are more journeys between Hereford and London per capita than between Shrewsbury and London is an illustration of the effect that having a direct service has on demand.

You do realise that the early morning peak service from Hereford towards London has been reduced from three trains down to one, don't you? And four evening arrivals is now two. Hardly suggestive of great demand there either, is it?

The survival of that one morning service to London probably has as least as much to do with there only being three shoreline-equipped sidings for IETs at Worcester Shrub Hill and an extra one being available at Hereford, than it does with the number of passengers using the remaining service from Hereford at 05.23. At the same time, the off-peak runs to Hereford help to keep the hourly timetable on the Cotswold Line balanced. If the infrastructure at the Birmingham end is eventually provided to allow an extra service each hour to/from Hereford, then pathing west of Malvern Wells is going to be an issue, as several of the GWR services fit into the gaps between WMR trains.

Great Malvern itself seeing fewer London passengers than Telford does. Worcester Shrub Hill has a similar number again, the trains don't get properly busy until Oxford.

Of course the main difference is that the London-Worcester service is not in addition to stopping services, it IS the stopping service. The fact that it's operated by Intercity rolling stock is a consequence of our DMU shortage, it used to be mostly Turbos. If Shrewsbury is ever to sustain a direct London service, it would have to be as an extension of the Aberystwyth - International trains. That way it's not duplicating an existing service. Doing so would require more joined-up thinking than the fragmented railway allows for, but at least a path would be readily available once HS2 has taken some of the existing Birmingham traffic.

The trains don't get properly busy until Oxford? That will come as news to passengers in the Cotswolds on many services.

Dr Fegg has already pointed out that your claim about use of IETs because of dmu shortages is nonsense. IETs on the Cotswold Line were part of the GWR game plan for the fleet from the start, because the Turbos were inadequate for the traffic much of the day - and had been even 20+ years ago - hence the use of 180s from 2004. What would things be like in terms of dmus for the Bristol area if the IETs had not taken over all but one Turbo duty on the Cotswold Line?

No it isn't. It's a consequence of FGW seeing potential for revenue growth in the Cotswold market, and investing in improving service provision. The move to Intercity-quality rolling stock for (most) Cotswold Line trains dates back to the First Great Western Link era, before the DMU shortage.

From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Great_Western_Link:

Though we could of course trace the whole process of improving Cotswold Line rolling stock back another decade, to 1993 and the reinstatement of day round through running to Paddington alongside the introduction of the Turbos, which sparked the first stage in the growth of passenger traffic on the line, and was a clear step up from the West Midlands area Class 150s previously used between Worcestershire and Oxford.

It was operated by turbos because of a HST shortage, the Cotswold and Oxford services were quick to get bumped to a turbo to ensure that South Wales, Penzance etc. could get a HST.

Cotswold Line has a very different flow to Shrewsbury. For example Charlbury's top 5 in the destination matrix are below, it has a lot of London journeys. Given the people the Cotswolds attract (such as David Cameron), it isn't suprising that it has good traffic to London, so keeping the stopper attached to an Oxford - London makes sense.

	From	To	Total
1	Charlbury	London Paddington	72594
2	Charlbury	Oxford	39251
3	Charlbury	Reading	3612
4	Charlbury	Moreton-in-Marsh	1155
5	Charlbury	Worcester Foregate Street	517

Meanwhile for Shrewsbury the main flow is to Birmingham. The numbers to London Euston are quite good at 50000 (average 136 a day) but this is a terminus station.

	From	To	Total
1	Shrewsbury	Birmingham New Street	109834
2	Shrewsbury	Wellington (Shropshire)	100053
3	Shrewsbury	Telford Central	62745
4	Shrewsbury	London Euston	52452
5	Shrewsbury	Wolverhampton	41836

No one was going to provide HSTs on everything on the Cotswold Line, ever. FGW upped the number it used in 2009 after the first departure of the 180s from GW services, but soon pulled back, as it was costing tham a packet in extra operating costs. And only one or two Cotswold services were allowed to be targeted for HSTs to be pinched on weekdays, notably the 17.50 Paddington to Worcester.

David Cameron is hardly representative of the local population - and the area's main attraction for him was a nice safe seat in the House of Commons, not the train service, though he did lobby hard for the redoubling project.

Entirely agree re Shrewsbury/Shropshire traffic flows - even if some people are splitting tickets in Birmingham on journeys to/from London, the fact remains that Brum is the place most people in Shropshire are travelling to, not London. BR knew it at the start of the 1990s, Virgin soon found out a few yeas later, at some expense, that BR knew what it was talking about and the recent Virgin/Avanti London services were as much to do with politics as providing travel options.